American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report

American Pulse™
Election 2012 Homestretch Report
October-2012
3,615 respondents participated in the 2nd October
American Pulse conducted 10/23-10/29/2012.
Margin of error is +/- 1.6%.

BIGinsight™
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Suite 200
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Ph: 614-846-0146

© 2012, Prosper®

Domestic Issues

© 2012, Prosper®

Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Economy
Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Get the
Economy Back on Track
(Likely Voters)
40%

35.3%
36%

32%

28% 25.9%

24%

20%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

While confidence in the government’s economic policy to get the
economy back on track has increased since the summer months, still
just more than a third of those likely to vote in the next week are
confident/very confident.

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012

© 2012, Prosper®

Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Employment
Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Help
Lower Unemployment
(Likely Voters)
40% 8.4
34.1%
35% 8.3 8.3

8.2
30%
24.4% 8.1
25%
8
20%
7.9
15%
7.8 7.8
Likely Voters
10%
7.7
Unemployment Rate (Civilian)
5% 7.6

0% 7.5
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

Recent drops in the unemployment rate seem to have improved voter
confidence in the government’s economic policy to help lower
unemployment.

Sources: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012,
U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2012, Prosper®

Despite Improving Confidence, Most Say Economy Heading in
Wrong Direction

Do you think the economy is heading in the
right direction? (Likely Voters)

How would you rate the
overall state of the
economy?
Yes
34.4%
(Likely Voters)
No
52.0% Excellent: 3.0%
Good: 25.5%
Neutral
13.7% Poor: 48.8%
Terrible: 22.6%

Although confidence in economic policies has picked up, the majority of Likely Voters
don’t think the economy is heading in the right direction. Nearly half say the current
state of the economy is poor while another 22.6% say it’s terrible.

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615

© 2012, Prosper®

Voters Don’t Appear Pleased with Obama’s Performance Regarding
the Economy
How would you rate President Obama for his performance in the
following areas over the past 4 years?: Economy
50%
45%
Likely Voters
40% 37.2%
35% 33.2%
Likely Catholic
30%
Voters
25% 21.5%
Likely Blue Collar
20%
Voters
15%
8.1% Likely Walmart
10%
Mom Voters
5%
0%
Excellent Good Poor Terrible
While one-third of Likely Voters say President Obama has done a “Good” job with the
economy in the past four years, more Voters are likely to say his job was “Poor” or
“Terrible.” Blue Collar Workers were most likely to say “Terrible.”


© 2012, Prosper®

Majority Know Someone Utilizing Government Assistance

Do you know anyone who uses…: (YES)
Likely Likely Likely Blue Likely Walmart
Voters Catholic Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters
Unemployment benefits 53.9% 55.9% 57.7% 57.7%

Food stamps (SNAP, WIC, etc.) 55.1% 52.8% 61.2% 69.0%

Medicare 82.1% 86.4% 75.5% 80.5%

Medicaid 61.0% 62.7% 66.7% 71.7%

Social Security benefits 87.0% 90.2% 85.5% 87.0%

Disability benefits 63.4% 62.3% 60.4% 70.0%

The majority of Likely Voters know at least one person who receives government
assistance programs such as unemployment or disability benefits, food stamps,
Medicare or Medicaid. More Walmart Moms and Catholics appear to know citizens
receiving these benefits, a likely influence on the upcoming election.


© 2012, Prosper®

Voters Divided on National Security
Overall, how do you think the safety of
Which presidential candidate would you trust most to
the United States has changed from 4
handle a terrorist situation such as September 11th?
years ago (2008)?
(Likely Voters)
(Likely Voters)

Barack Obama Mitt Romney
60%
Safer 50%
34.0%
No 40%
change 30%
29.1%
20%
Less
safe 10%
36.9% 0%
Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Likely Walmart
Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters

Likely Voters are divided when it comes to the safety of the United States—while over 1 in
3 say the country is safer, 36.9% also claim the country is less safe. In addition, voter
groups are split on which candidate would be best at handling a terrorist attack:
Obama has an edge with the Walmart Moms while Blue Collar Workers
favor Romney.


© 2012, Prosper®

Voters Say Different Races and Ethnic Groups Have Moved Farther
Apart in the Past Four Years
Do you think the racial/ethnic divide in the United States has grown or shrunk
in the past 4 years? (Likely Voters)
100% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 4.3%
90% 13.0% 12.9% 12.2%
14.6%
80% 5 – Shrunk a lot
70% 27.4% 27.7%
29.3% 28.6% 4 – Shrunk somewhat
60%

50% 3 – Hasn’t changed
25.9%
40% 28.5% 31.6% 26.5%
30%
2 – Grown somewhat

20%
32.9% 1 – Grown a lot
10%
26.1% 26.1% 26.0%

0%
Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Collar Likely Walmart
Voters Voters Mom Voters

More Likely Voters feel as if the racial/ethnic divide in the United States
has grown in the past 4 years. Fewer than 1 in 5 of each segment say the
divide has shrunk somewhat or a lot.


© 2012, Prosper®

Election Uncertainty More Likely to Impact Spending
How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential
Election impacted your life decisions? Election impacted your spending?
(Likely Voters) (Likely Voters)
Delaying moving 10.5%
Decreasing overall spending 39.9%
Delaying retirement 10.0%
Reducing dining out 28.1%
Delaying changing jobs 9.6%
Doing more comparative
Delaying paying off debt 9.1% 26.7%
shopping
Delaying buying a house 9.0%
Paying down debt 25.1%
Delaying further education 8.6%
Delaying a major purchase
25.0%
Delaying retirement saving 8.3% (car, TV)

Delaying starting/adding to Increasing savings 17.5%
4.4%
family
Other 4.1% Other 2.1%
Delaying getting married 4.0%
56.3% The uncertainty of the election
37.6%
The uncertainty of the election hasn’t impacted my…
hasn’t impacted my life…
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Most life decisions are not affected by the unknown election outcome, but
some Likely Voters say they are delaying moving or retiring.
Also, decreasing spending is popular in the weeks leading up to the election.


© 2012, Prosper®

1 in 4 Waiting Until After Election to Decide Holiday Budget
How will the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impact your holiday plans? Are you
waiting until after the election to do any of the following? (Likely Voters)

Decide my overall budget 26.8%
Key Likely Voter
Decide who I am purchasing Segments:
14.6%
gifts for
(Waiting until after the
Decide how much I will donate to
13.5% election to…)
charity (or not to donate at all)
Decide travel arrangements/get- Decide my overall budget
13.0%
together details Blue Collar: 39.4%
Catholics: 27.0%
Start shopping 12.6%
WMT Moms: 21.8%
Decide whether or not to
7.9% Decide who to purchase for
celebrate the holidays
Blue Collar: 22.3%
Other 1.5% Catholics: 18.8%
WMT Moms: 12.7%
The uncertainty of the election
54.8%
won’t impact my holiday plans…

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Blue Collar workers appear to be more influenced by the uncertainty of the
election when it comes to deciding holiday budgets and who will receive gifts.


© 2012, Prosper®

International Issues

© 2012, Prosper®

Romney More Likely to Boost Confidence in Foreign Policy
If _______ is elected President in November, would
your confidence in foreign policy… (Likely Voters)
45%
38.5% 37.8% 39.0%
40%
35.5% Key Likely Voter
35%
Segments:
30% (Increase Confidence)
26.0%
25% 23.2%
Blue Collar: Romney
20%
(40.8%)
15%
Catholics: Romney
10% (38.8%)
5% WMT Moms: Romney
0% (35.5%)
Increase Stay the Decrease Increase Stay the Decrease
Same Same

Obama Romney
More Likely Voters would experience an increase in confidence in foreign policy if Mitt
Romney is elected as President in November.


© 2012, Prosper®

Voters Divided on Who to Trust with Foreign Affairs

Which presidential candidate would you trust most to handle foreign
affairs in general?
(Likely Voters)
60%

50%

40%

30%
Barack Obama
20% Mitt Romney

10%

0%
Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Collar Likely Walmart
Voters Voters Mom Voters
Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to trust Romney with foreign affairs;
Walmart Moms place their trust in the incumbent.


© 2012, Prosper®

Strengthening the United States as a World Power
Which presidential candidate do you think would be Do you think the US is gaining or losing
better at strengthening the United States as a world power in the world?
power? (Likely Voters) (Likely Voters)

Barack Obama Mitt Romney
60% 3.7%
50% 11.9%
26.9%
40%
25.0%
30%

20% 32.4%

10%

0%
Likely Voters Likely Catholic Likely Blue Likely Walmart 1 - Losing a lot of power
Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters 2 - Losing some power
3 - Not gaining or losing power
Most Likely Voters agree that the US is losing power in 4 - Gaining some power
the world—and they believe Romney would be the best 5 - Gaining a lot of power
candidate to strengthen the country.


© 2012, Prosper®

Top Countries of Concern
How concerned are you about the relationship between the United States and each of
the following countries? (Somewhat/Very Concerned) Top 8
Likely Likely Likely Blue Likely Walmart
Voters Catholic Voters Collar Voters Mom Voters
Iran 83.7% 85.8% 76.9% 84.3%

Afghanistan 76.7% 80.0% 73.3% 78.8%

Pakistan 75.7% 79.5% 71.6% 70.9%

North Korea 75.0% 78.1% 66.5% 74.5%

Iraq 73.2% 76.7% 73.2% 80.0%

China 70.6% 71.5% 61.6% 66.7%

Libya 70.5% 74.4% 69.4% 71.4%

Egypt 59.5% 63.4% 49.0% 56.1%

Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the top countries Likely Voters are worried about.
North Korea, Iraq and China follow.


© 2012, Prosper®

Election 2012

© 2012, Prosper®

Majority Are Excited to Vote
Are you excited to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Likely Voters)
Likely
Likely Likely Likely Blue Walmart
Voters Catholic Collar Mom
1 – Not at All Excited 7.0% 7.0% 6.3% 8.6%

2 – Not Very Excited 7.4% 5.2% 7.9% 7.0%

3 – Neutral 15.7% 18.3% 20.5% 15.8%

4 – Somewhat Excited 20.9% 18.3% 19.8% 16.5%

5 – Very Excited 49.0% 51.2% 45.5% 52.1%

Somewhat/Very Excited 69.9% 69.5% 65.3% 68.6%

7 in 10 Likely Voters are pumped to have their voices heard at the polls. Blue Collar
Voters, however, are a little less excited.


© 2012, Prosper®

Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues?

Likely Voters tend to
Role of Government
lean to the right when
it comes to the Top 5
voting issues for Taxes
Election 2012.
Healthcare
President Obama’s
strongest issue Economic Recovery
among these appears
to be Healthcare, as
more Likely Voters Job Creation
side entirely or more
with Obama on this 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

issue compared to Entirely with Obama
others. More with Obama than Romney
However, Romney is Neither
still on top in this More with Romney than Obama
category. Entirely with Romney


© 2012, Prosper®

Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues?

Catholics Blue Collar Workers WMT Moms
Side with… Side with… Side with…

Mitt Romney for… Mitt Romney for… Barack Obama for…
Role of government: Role of government: Taxes: 45.7%
52.6% 45.6% Healthcare: 45.9%
Taxes: 50.2% Taxes: 47.9%
Healthcare: 50.0% Healthcare: 48.5% Mitt Romney for…
Economic Recovery: Economic Recovery: Role of government:
53.3% 51.9% 43.7%
Job Creation: 52.5% Job Creation: 51.2% Economic Recovery:
44.3%
Job Creation: 43.3%

While Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to side
with Romney than Obama on key issues, Walmart Moms differ.
They lean towards the left when it comes to taxes and healthcare.

© 2012, Prosper®

Does Obama Deserve Reelection?

To what extent do you agree with the following statement?:
President Obama deserves reelection.
Somewhat/Strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat/Strongly Disagree

Likely Voters

Likely Catholic

Likely Blue Collar

Likely Walmart Mom

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

While Likely Voters are more split, Blue Collar Workers and
Catholics appear more sure that President Obama does not deserve
another term.

© 2012, Prosper®

Jobs & Government Assistance are Voting Concerns for Many
Which of the following will likely influence your vote in this year’s presidential
election? (Somewhat/Very Likely)
60%

50%

Likely Voters
40%

30% Likely Catholic
Voters
20% Likely Blue
Collar Voters
10%
Likely Walmart
Mom Voters
0%
Concern for losing my job
Concern of a pay Ability to find a new job of government assistance
cut Concern with loss

Many voters will consider their job status when going to the polls. 42.3% of Likely Voters
are somewhat/very likely to be influenced by the ability to find a new job. Blue Collar
workers are more concerned than other voters about losing a job or taking a pay cut while
Walmart Moms are more concerned with losing government assistance.


© 2012, Prosper®

4 in 10 Say Election Results Could Lead to Social Unrest

How likely do you think it is that the result of the 2012 Presidential
Election could lead to social unrest?
Somewhat/very likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat/very unlikely

Likely Voters

Likely Catholic Voters

Likely Blue Collar Voters

Likely Walmart Mom Voters

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Nearly half of Likely Blue Collar Voters think the results of the
election could lead to social unrest.


© 2012, Prosper®

A Look at Likely Voters
Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision

• Economy 76.2% Social issues/civil rights
Personal financial situation
• Healthcare 63.8% Religion/morals
Upbringing
• Taxes 55.1% Employer or job field
Political party affiliation
• Job Creation 51.8%
None of these
• Government Spending 51.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for?
4.6% 1.1%
1 – Don’t care at all
2.3%
2 – Don’t care very much Barack Obama 45.9%
3 – Neutral
Mitt Romney
4 – Care somewhat
Gary Johnson
5 – Care very much
Undecided
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Other 46.1%


© 2012, Prosper®

A Look at Catholic Likely Voters

• Economy 82.1% Personal financial situation
Social issues/civil rights
Upbringing
• Taxes 57.5%
Employer or job field

• Job Creation 55.8% Political party affiliation
None of these
• Government Spending 53.2%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

1 – Don’t care at all 3.1% 1.1%
0.6%
2 – Don’t care very much 43.3%
Barack Obama
3 – Neutral
Mitt Romney
4 – Care somewhat
Gary Johnson
Undecided
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 51.8%


© 2012, Prosper®

A Look at Blue Collar Likely Voters

• Taxes 60.0% Employer or job field

Upbringing
• Government Spending 54.3% Political party affiliation

• Job Creation 50.7% None of these

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

1 – Don’t care at all 6.4% 1.6%
Barack Obama
3 – Neutral 40.2%
Mitt Romney
4 – Care somewhat
Gary Johnson
Undecided
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other
48.0%


© 2012, Prosper®

A Look at Walmart Mom Likely Voters


• Taxes 55.4% Political party affiliation
Upbringing
• Job Creation 51.6% Employer or job field
None of these
• Government Spending 49.9%
0% 10% 20% 30%

1 – Don’t care at all
3.1% 6.0% 0.8%
Barack Obama
3 – Neutral
Mitt Romney
4 – Care somewhat
Gary Johnson
Undecided
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Other 40.8%


© 2012, Prosper®

Ohio
A Look at Swing States
0.3%
0.7%
Wisconsin Virginia
5.6% Barack Obama
42.3% Mitt Romney
Gary Johnson
Undecided
51.0% Other

North Carolina Florida Colorado Iowa

Ohio has been known to decide the Presidential Election, and Romney
holds the lead in this state, along with NC, CO and VA. Obama has more
support in IA and FL, while Wisconsin has the highest percentage of
Undecided Voters.

© 2012, Prosper®

What to Do After Voting
Which of the following do you do after voting?
(Check all that apply)
(Likely Voters)
Key Likely Voter
Segments:
Encourage others to go vote
Encourage Others to Vote
Wear the “I voted today” sticker Catholics: 56.2%
Blue Collar: 43.8%
Tell others that I voted WMT Moms: 52.7%
Ask others if they’ve voted
Update Facebook Status
Update my status on Facebook Catholics: 10.2%
Blue Collar: 11.2%
Tell others who I voted for WMT Moms: 26.2%

Send a tweet Send a tweet
Catholics: 3.7%
Post to LinkedIn
Blue Collar: 4.1%
WMT Moms: 7.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Most of those who are likely to vote this election say they will
encourage others to vote. Catholics are the most likely group of
those analyzed to do so, while Walmart Moms turn to social media.

© 2012, Prosper®

Voter Fraud is Concern for Majority of Voters
To what extent do you agree with the following statements?
(Somewhat/Strongly Agree)

90.0%

80.0% 77.1%
Likely Voters
70.0%
62.3%
60.0% 54.9%
Likely Catholic
50.0% Voters
40.0%
Likely Blue Collar
30.0% Voters
20.0% Likely Walmart
10.0% Mom Voters
0.0%
Voter fraud is a major issue All voters should be I am concerned that voter
in the United States required to show fraud could change the
identification outcome of an election

The vast majority of Likely Voters think all voters should be required
to show identification, and 3 in 5 are concerned voter fraud would
change the outcome of an election.

© 2012, Prosper®

Does your vote matter? Most say “Yes!”
How much do you think your vote matters?
(Likely Voters)

Key Likely Voter
12.1% Segments:
Doesn't matter very
7.3% much/ at all (Vote matters somewhat/
great deal)
Neutral
Catholics: 82.8%
Matters somewhat/ WMT Moms: 81.6%
80.5% great deal Blue Collar: 81.2%

Of those Voters analyzed, Catholics are slightly more likely to feel
like their vote counts.


© 2012, Prosper®

Will anything get in the way of your vote this year?

Which of the following would stop you from voting this year? (Likely Voters)

77.5% Nothing will Stop Me Key Likely Voter
Segments:
(Nothing will stop me – I
am going to vote no
matter what)
9.3% 3.8% 3.4%
Illness or Bad weather Blue Collar: 84.6%
Too busy
disability conditions Catholics: 81.5%
WMT Moms: 78.1%

The majority say nothing will get in the way of them casting a ballot
this year. Blue Collar Workers appear to be the most determined.


© 2012, Prosper®

Contact
For media inquiries:
Chrissy Wissinger, Senior Manager, Communications
chrissy@biginsight.com
Randi Honkonen, Analyst
randi@biginsight.com
614-846-0146

Disclaimer
American Pulse™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or
a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or
implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed
in producing statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon
and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.

American Pulse Election 2012 Homestretch Report

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