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Fuels Policy, Ethanol and RFS Reform
Political and Policy Implications on Gasoline Prices
Michael Whatley
Consumer Energy Alliance
Ports to Plains Alliance Energy Conference
April 26, 2013
• 2012
• National average ‐ Gasoline $3.63 per gallon
• National average – Diesel $3.97 per gallon 
• Average Household $2,912 on gasoline
4% of household earnings (before tax)
• 2013
• Monthly average record highs – January and February
• Record high first quarter ‐ $3.58 nationally
• Projected record high national average
Gasoline and Diesel:
National Prices 
• Setting the Cost of Gasoline
• Crude oil 80%
• Refining/Distribution/Marketing 8%
• Taxes 12%
• Refining/Distribution/Marketing/Taxes are “fixed costs”
• Fluctuations in Crude Oil prices set the price at the pump
Gasoline and Diesel:
Cost at the Pump
• North American Crude is significantly cheaper than oil that we 
import from the Middle East
• North American supplies can eliminate our dependence on 
Middle Eastern oil and reduce prices at the pump
• Gulf of Mexico  200,000 bpd
• Alaska – TAPS 1.4 million bpd
• Keystone XL 700,000 bpd
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
• Persian Gulf 1.8 million bpd
Gasoline and Diesel:
North American Crude Potential
• Since 2009, we have seen significant increases in oil production 
on private and state lands and significant decreases in production 
on federal lands
• Gulf of Mexico – shutdown following DWH/Macando
• Alaska – permitting delays offshore, no production in ANWR or NPRA
• Oil Shale – complete reorganization of program and no leasing
• Atlantic OCS – Lease Sale 220 cancelled and no leases until 2017
Gasoline and Diesel:
Domestic Production Challenges
• 2005 – Congress enacted the Renewable Fuel Standard  
• 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol by 2012
• 2007 – Congress significantly raised the program goals (RFS2)
• 9 billion gallons in 2009
• 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022
• 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol
• 15 billion cap on corn‐based ethanol
• EPA administers the program via Administrative Rulemaking
Ethanol and the RFS
• Significant rise in corn prices
• From $2 per bushel 2006 to $6 per bushel in 2012
• USDA projects long term $4‐$5 average
• RIN Issues
• RIN Fraud
• Run‐up in RIN prices
• Cellulosic Production
• US Production failures have led to 100% imports
Ethanol and the RFS:
Controversies with the Program
• The E10 Blendwall
• Gasoline Stations, Gasoline Pumps & Underground Storage Tanks
• Automobile Warranties
• RFS Mandate Levels v. Decreased U.S. Gasoline Consumption
• Economic Recession and CAFE Requirements from 9.4 billion barrels 
per day in 2007 to 8.6 billion barrels per day in 2012
• RFS targets will exceed 10% of total gasoline use in 2013
• Congressional debate on RFS reforms to address this issue is likely
Ethanol and the RFS:
The E10 Blendwall and E15 Issues
Michael Whatley
Consumer Energy Alliance
1666 K Street, NW, Suite 500
Washington, DC
202‐674‐1750
www.consumerenergyalliance.org
For More Information

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