Presented at the 4th Global Infrastructure Basel Summit 21 & 22 May 2014. Read more about the world leading platform for Sustainable Infrastructure Finance at www.gib-foundation.org. Next Summit: 27 & 28 May 2015 in Switzerland

1. GIB Bankability Study on
City of Johannesburg Fuel Switch
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
May 21th 2014
Marco Grossmann
Project Leader

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Content
1) Goal of and Approach to the Bankability Study
2) Rea Vaya BRT and Metrobus
3) Draft Content Bankability Study

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Goal and Approach
The ultimate goal of the study is to create a document that serves potential
investors as brochure for financing a fleet of approximately 400 Diesel Dual Fuel
buses, by:
• Applying the GIB Grading to mitigate risk and to showcase sustainability of the
project in order to potentially lower borrowing/interest rates
• Conducting in depth analysis of the fuel switch of Rea Vaya and Metrobus
The approach is not to reinvent the wheel, but:
• To hold qualitative interviews in order apply the GIB Grading
• To collect, analyse and further develop already carried out work
• To build a tailor made financial model

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Rea Vaya BRT
• Being rolled out in phases
• Phase 1A: for 2010 SWC from
Soweto to CBD
• Phase 1B: second route from
Soweto but different alignment
• Phase 1C: linking North and
South and creatingTOD
opportunities

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Rea Vaya
• Phase 1A
– 25k of trunk route (dedicated)
for 18 m articulated buses
– 3 complementary and 5 feeder
routes using 13 m buses
– 30 Rea Vaya stations service
passengers
– Passenger numbers average of
43 000 per day
– 143 Euro IV buses
– 1000 permanent employment
– Registered for voluntary carbon
credits
• Phase 1B
– Another 18 km, 17 stations
– 134 Euro V buses
– Being rolled out since October
2013
– Projected passenger numbers
60 000 per day
– 600 permanent job opportunities

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Metrobus
Timeline
• 1942: Metrobus established
as City department
• 2001: Metrobus becomes a
municipal owned entity
• 2010/11: Transport
Department looks at future
options for Metrobus to
respond to changing public
transport environment in
City, aging fleet and
outdated fare collection
system
Key facts and figures
• 1000 employees
• 450 buses
• 3 major depots

7. Draft Content of Bankability Study
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1. Context and selected best practice examples
2. Sustainability and Risk Analysis
3. Technology analysis
4. Technology provider
5. Logistics/Infrastructure
6. Legal and Policy Framework
7. Financial Cost/Benefit Analysis

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Sustainability and Risk Analysis
3.43
3.57
3.14
2.67
3.33
3.50
3.33
3.29
3.33
3.00
0
1
2
3
4
Accounta
bility
Transpare
ncy
Customer
Focus
Results
Orientati
on
Poverty
Responsiv
eness
Power-
Balanced
Partners…
Shared
Incentives
Sound
Financial
Mechan…
Proactive
Risk
Manage…
Resource
Protectio
n
Good Performance (65
Percentile)
Modest Performance (10
Percentile)
Self Evaluation

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Technology Analysis 1/2
General Description of Dual Fuel Technology (DDF)
• NGV market overview
• Technical description of DDF
Economy
• Proven and Safe Technology
• Reduced running cost due to lower cost of CNG
• Effects on maintenance cost
• Availability of CNG / Grid, possibility to diversify
to Biogas/methane (Fuel Security)
Ecology
• Reduced Carbon Emissions (15 – 20 %)
• Huge potential in Biogas/methane for further reduction (as well as NOx, PMs etc.)
Society
• Job creation opportunities through CNG, Biogas, TOD
• Local assembly of body and chassis
Ecology
Society
Economy

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Technology Analysis 2/2
Building on todays innovation
for tomorrows solutions
Maturing
“Fit for Purpose”
technology
Innovation Cycles
for each solution in
an integrated and
sustainable
manner
Low Skill Jobs
and High
Innovation
Medium Skill
Jobs and High
Innovation
High Skill Jobs
and High
Innovation

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Logistics and Infrastructure
Stakeholder-Analysis
• Gas Distributors,
• Grid Operators,
• Regulating Bodies
Fuel Security
• Pricing policies regarding CNG
• Availability of CNG, incl. outlook
• Solutions for Filling Stations

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Legal and Policy Framework
Policies and Regulations in place e.g.:
• Municipal Financial Management
Act
• Supply Chain Management Act
• Division of Revenue Act
• Land Transport Act
• Requirements towards local job
creation, public consultation etc.

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Financial Cost/Benefit Analysis
Composition of tailor made financial model, by comparing
Diesel vs Diesel/Gas vs Dedicated CNG in terms of:
• CAPEX,
• OPEX (bus running and fix cost),
• Rate of Return (IRR),
• Net Present Value (NPV),
• Payback time, lifetime analysis,
• Sensitivity Analysis

14. Thank you for your attention!
Contact information
Mr. Marco Grossmann
marco.grossmann@ecos.ch
+41 (0)61 205 10 36