Presentation at the 2015 American Public Health Association Annual Meeting in Chicago. Since 2004, the City of Chicago has had a comprehensive surveillance and control program to address West Nile virus (WNV). Environmental surveillance has included: the collection of mosquitoes from traps located throughout the city; the identification and sorting of mosquitoes collected from these traps; and the testing of specific species of mosquitoes for WNV. Environmental control measures have included targeted adulticiding efforts. This project will identify factors associated with the presence of West Nile virus (WNV) in mosquitoes and determine the effectiveness of mosquito control measures. Information gained will help the City of Chicago better target its surveillance, prevention and control efforts An open competition to determine the best model is being planned by Kaggle who will be hosting the competition in partnership with Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and CDPH. CDPH will provide data and technical support. There will be 8 years of public health data incorporated into the model that will be tested and potentially incorporated into business practice. Full Abstract: https://apha.confex.com/apha/143am/webprogram/Paper335111.html

1. Predictive Analytics &
West Nile Disease Prevention
Raed Mansour, MS
@reedmonseur
November 3, 2015

2. Presenter Disclosure
Raed Mansour, MS
No relationships to disclose.

3. Culex pipiens
"Culex pipiens 2007-1" by Alvesgaspar - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Culex_pipiens_2007-1.jpg#/media/File:Culex_pipiens_2007-1.jpg

5. West Nile Virus Activity by State (10/27/15)

6. West Nile Virus Disease Cases 2015
58

7. West Nile Virus Disease Cases 2015

8. Comprehensive Surveillance
Since 2004, CDPH has had a comprehensive
environmental surveillance and control program to
address West Nile virus.
• Collection of mosquitoes from traps located
throughout the city
• Identification and sorting of mosquitoes collected
from these traps
• Testing of specific species of mosquitoes for WNV
• Environmental control measures have included
targeted adulticiding efforts.

9. Weekly
Reports
June to October

11. All Trap Locations & Sprays (2007-2014)

12. What if…
• Determine the effectiveness of adulticiding efforts
in reducing WNV-positive mosquito pools and
allocate and prioritize trapping and spraying.
• Predict when and where different species of
mosquitos will test positive for West Nile Virus.
• Improve vizualizations
• Create an open source model replicable for other
cities to use.

13. Partners
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Kaggle
• RWJF funded this project to build a model that will
identify factors associated with the presence of West
Nile virus in mosquitoes and determine the
effectiveness of mosquito control measures.
• Information gained will help CDPH better target its
surveillance, prevention and control efforts.
• Collaboration builds capacity.

14. Challenge
Given weather, location, testing, and spraying
data, this competition asks you to predict when
and where different species of mosquitos will
test positive for West Nile virus.
A more accurate method of predicting outbreaks
of West Nile virus in mosquitos will help the City
of Chicago and CPHD more efficiently and
effectively allocate resources towards preventing
transmission of this potentially deadly virus.

15. Crowdsourcing Models

16. Data
Quality Controlled Local Climatological Data, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration. Daily and monthly summaries
for approximately 1,600 U.S. locations. Daily Summary forms are
not available for all stations. May 1, 2007 to October 31, 2014.
Zoonotic Disease Tracker. Records all environmental surveillance
data as well as well as data gathered to determine the
effectiveness of larvaciding efforts. There are 100,000 records
and 72,000 records of adulticiding data.
Vector Disease Control International. Provides consultation on
environmental surveillance and control measures and to conduct
adulticiding efforts. VDCI has also recorded the where
adulticiding has occurred.

17. Data
• Spray
Since August 29, 2011, Date, Time, Latitude, Longitude
• Train Data
May 9, 2007 to September 9, 2013
Date, Address, Species, Block, Street, Trap, Address,
NumberAndStreet, Latitude, Longitude, Address Accuracy,
NumMosquitos, WNV Present
• Sample Submission
WNV Present
• Test Data
June 11, 2008 to October 2, 2014, Id, Date, Address, Species, Block,
Street, Trap AddressNumberAndStreet, Latitude, Longitude and
AddressAccuracy

18. An open competition to determine the best model.
1,306 TEAMS
1,375 SCRIPTS
1,447 PLAYERS
29,961 ENTRIES
“I'm very much a novice myself at Kaggle and have benefited immensely from
other people generously sharing their scripts. Although the team and I did rather
poorly overall (ROC ~0.679) this was my favorite competition by far.”
Crowdsourcing Models

19. Operationalize…
• What is the normal business practice?
• What is the Minimum Viable Product?
• Customization to Needs of Program
UX/UI Dashboard/Tablet to set Traps & Plan Spraying
• Updates/Improvements/Discoveries
Culex population dynamics, weather forecasting, wind, etc. It is believed that hot
and dry conditions are more favorable for WNV than cold and wet.
• Deployment
Connected Data Systems, Open and/or Closed Data
• Automation
• Sustainability
• Competing priorities

20. Open vs “Closed” Data
Ease of Collaborations to build capacity faster
• Lower Costs
• Limited bureaucratic process (contracting)
• Complement traditional PH workforce with data scientists
Open Codes
• Opportunities to improve models thru crowd evaluation
• Replication and adaptation to spread the innovation
Policy & Infrastructure
• Tradition creates inertia that impedes change efforts
• Must work within existing constructs
• Sustainability (workforce vs. community)
Limited privacy concerns vs PHI (deidentified blocks)

21. Open Data Spurs Innovation
Community Built
• Apps
• Models
• Evaluations
• Data Visualizations
• Opens Funding Opportunities

22. Data Vizualizations

23. Data Visualizations

24. Fight the Bight App?
Most apps work by emitting a high frequency sound inaudible to humans, mosquitoes will
stay away.
What if Predictive models can alert based on analytics to give:
Recommendations when they are needed the most
• Clothing
• Repellents
• Time of Day
Mosquito-Proof Your Home
• Emptying standing water from flowerpots, gutters, buckets, pool covers, pet water
dishes, discarded tires, and birdbaths on a regular basis.
Build Community Trust
• Announcements of West Nile Virus Surveillance and Control Programs
• Knowing spraying schedule with automated visualizations of communities to be sprayed
• Facilitate Calls to 311 to report standing water, dead birds or high grass/weeds.

25. Open Chicago Models Available
https://github.com/Cardal/Kaggle_WestNileVirus
https://github.com/diefimov/west_nile_virus_2015
https://github.com/nhlx5haze/Kaggle_WestNileVirus

26. /ChicagoPublicHealth
HealthyChicago@CityofChicago.org
@ChiPublicHealth
www.CityofChicago.org/Health
Raed.Mansour@cityofchicago.org