RCREEE Member States: from the first movers for the NAMAs 16-17 November 2011

1. Case studies on NAMAs in Tunisia
and Mexico
Matthias Krey, Perspectives GmbH
16.11.2011
Training Course “Existing CDM Potential and Perspectives for
Carbon Finance in RCREEE Member States beyond 2012”,
Cairo, Egypt, 16. November 2011
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc © 2011 Perspectives GmbH

2. Tunisian NAMA concept
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 2

3. NAMA proposals for Tunisia
Tunisian Diversion of organic waste
Solar Plan from landfills
 Implementation of “Solar Plan” as NAMA  Potential for GHG mitigation in the Tunisian
under the UNFCCC and Copenhagen waste sector
Accord - waste management for a more sustainable
treatment of biowaste
 Expanding the existing Tunisian Solar - Communal waste, agroindustry/food
Plan covering: processing, agricultural
- Solar energy production, wood, waste water, hotels and
restaurants
- Wind energy
- Actions: composting and/or anaerobic
- Energy efficiency
digestion
- Biogas
 Components (2011-2016)
- Studies - Study to detect cost-efficient measures for
 40 public-private projects scheduled emission reductions
between 2010-2016 - Scientific research on degradation processes
- national concept on biowaste treatment
 Estimated emission reductions of 1.5 development
MtCO2e per year, compared to current - Review (or study) on feed-in of electricity
annual emission of 35 MtCO2e in Tunisia - Construction of composting and anaerobic
digestion plants
- Awareness Building
Source: Tunisian “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action” NAMAs, - Capacity building and training
Tunisian Environmental Ministry, 2010
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 3 - Norming and standardization

4. Tunisia Solar Plan
Source: Tunisian “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action” NAMAs, Tunisian Environmental Ministry, 2010
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 4

5. MRV challenge for Tunisian NAMA
Méthodologies disponibles pour les éléments du PST
Mesure Type de méthodologie # projets MDP
• 479
Thermosolaire • AMS-I.C. • Energie thermique renouvelable
• 2046
Electricité solaire • ACM 2 • Electricité renouvelable pour
• 2037
et éolienne • AMS I.D réseau
• 27
Efficacité • AMS II.C • Technologies spécifiques
• 31
énergétique sur • AMS II.E. • Bâtiments
• 41
la demande • AMS II.J. • Illumination
• 5
Efficacité • ACM 16 • Transports publics
• 0
énergétique dans • AMS III.AA • Amélioration véhicules existants
• 0
les transports • AMS III.AT • Tachymètres digitaux
• 231
• ACM 1
Gaz de décharge • Gaz de décharge • 48
• AMS III.G
Infrastructure • 5
• AM 45 • Connexion de réseaux
(interconnexion)
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 5

6. Mexico NAMA concept
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 6

7. More than 500.000 new houses per year demanded until
2030 in Mexico due to demographic change
Housing stock in millions
40 38.1 Mil.
35.6 Mil.
33.1 Mil.
35 30.2 Mil.
10.8 Mil.
5.8 Mil. new houses
30 27.3 Mil.
new houses 2011-2030
2011-2020
25
Millions
24.4 Mil.
20
NAMA focused on new houses
15
10
5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Existing houses Projection
Source: CONAVI, 2010
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 7

8. Supported NAMA Design Concept for Energy-Efficiency
Measures in the Mexican Residential Building Sector
Item Description
Sector Building sector
Sub-sector New residential houses (maximum 4 storeys and 8 units)
NAMA boundary Entire country
Measures and activities with Substantial up-scale of “Green mortgage” and “Ésta es tu casa” schemes through
direct impact on GHG increased subsidies and more ambitious efficiency standards.
emission reduction
Measures and activities with Supportive actions for transformation of the “Green Mortgage” and "Ésta es tu casa"
indirect impact on GHG programmes into a holistic urban planning process including building codes
emission reduction • Building code pilot in 1 federal state
• Promotion and enforcement of building codes across federal states over time
• Capacity building
• Extension of urban planning criteria and inclusion in the holistic framework
NAMA timeframe
-Preparation 2011-2012
-Implementation 2012-2020
NAMA implementation and Full costs of substantial up-scaling of actions until 2020
operation costs
NAMA type Supported NAMA (with the possibility of NAMA crediting for parts of the actions)
Type of support required Financial, technical and capacity building
under the NAMA
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 8

9. The NAMA could significantly reduce the BAU emissions
Emission paths under different scenarios Emissions 2013-20
14
Current practice
= 57.6 MtCO2
12
-12% = 50.9 MtCO2
-18% = 47.2 MtCO2
10
-19% = 46.5 MtCO2
Annual emissions in
million tCO2/a
-28% = 41.4 MtCO2
8
-41% = 33.8 MtCO2
6
4
2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BAU Current Green Mortgage (37% coverage 2020) Scenario 1 (100% coverage 2020)
Scenario 2 (100% coverage 2015) Scenario 3 (technology scale up)
Scenario 4 (scenarios 1 and 3 combined) Current practice cumulative
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 9

10. Climate financing for the Mexican NAMA?
 A revolving NAMA fund is a possibility
- Directly reinvests monetary benefits (Mexican saved subsidies)
 Such a fund could be supported by soft loans from
donors/climate funds until break-even is achieved
- Which are the incremental costs given that
- Air-conditioners and refrigerators have negative abatement costs?
- Mexican government saves a huge amount of subsidies?
 Possible private sector involvement
- Carbon market (NAMA crediting; e.g. of PV) => EU: Sectoral Mechanism pilot
through a bilateral agreement
- Provide loans to the NAMA fund on commercial terms (senior tranches)
 Industrialised countries could purchase credits as well
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc 10

11. Specific investment needs
Billion € Investment needs 2013 - 2020
8
6.6 billion €
7
6.2 billion €
6
5 4.0
4.3 billion € 3.6
4 3.8 billion €
1.7
Current 3 1.2
Green
Mortgage 2
2.6 billion € 1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
0
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Minimum supporting finance:
~ 0.17 billion EUR/year
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc

12. Many Thanks for
Your Attention!
Matthias Krey, Perspectives GmbH
16.11.2011
Training Course “Existing CDM Potential and
Perspectives for Carbon Finance in RCREEE
Member States beyond 2012”,
Cairo, Egypt, 16. November 2011
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc © 2011 Perspectives GmbH