Arab Region Progress in Sustainable Energy Challenges and Opportunities
Day2 session 3: Morocco
1. Euro-Mediterranean
Energy Market Integration Project
Germany
France
Lebanon End Use Energy Efficiency:
National Plans for Regional Energy Challenges
Belgium
Presentation of Budget Allocation Charts - Morocco
Germany Tunis, 26th – 27th, July, 2010
M.Mohammed HMAMOUCHI
BAC Expert – Morocco
“The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the author
and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union”.
This project is funded
by the European Union 1
2. Country Energy Overview
Country Potential EE and RE Technologies
Budget Allocation Chart (BAC) Objective
Methodology for the BAC
Methodology for the BAC RE/EE
BAC Output
Next Steps
This project is funded
by the European Union
3. Contribution of energy to the national economy
Energy bill (facture énergétique)
Royalties received from the transit pipeline Maghreb Europe
Evolution of energy balance
Evolution of electricity consumption
Evolution of the electricity demand (Gwh)
Electricity demand in 2030
This project is funded
by the European Union
3
4. Contribution of energy to the national economy
1euro = 11 DH (Dirham) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tax Revenue (Billion DH) 12 12,5 15 16 -
Energy Bill (Billion DH) 19,1 44,4 51,8 70,6 54,2
Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 10,5 12,9 13,7 14,8 15,1
Investments (Billion DH) 5 8 10 17 -
Consumption (Toe/capita) 0,36 0,42 0,45 0,47 0,48
This project is funded
by the European Union
5. Energy bill (facture énergétique)
(Billions of dirhams) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Crude Oil & petroleum 16,2 39,7 45,9 61,5 45,5
products
Coal 2,5 3,6 4,3 6,5 4,4
Electricity 0,4 1,1 1,6 2,6 4,3
Total 19,1 44,4 51,8 70,6 54,2
This project is funded
by the European Union
6. Royalties received from the transit pipeline Maghreb
Europe
(in Million Nm3) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total royalties 613 785 757 813 658
This project is funded
by the European Union
7. Evolution of energy balance
( in ktoe) 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Production 330 370 365 374 820
Oil and Natural Gas 61 66 60 59 50
Hydro 219 256 235 238 668
Wind 50 48 70 77 102
Consumption 10461 12901 13734 14794 15118
Petroleum products 6445 7713 8069 9115 9181
Coal 3337 3878 3910 3723 3379
Hydro 219 256 235 238 668
Naturel Gas 48 479 540 533 586
Imported electricity 362 527 910 1108 1202
Wind 50 48 70 77 102
Share of Petroleum Products (%) 61,6 59,8 58,8 61,6 60,7
Energy Dependence (%) 96,8 97,1 97,3 97,5 94,6
This project is funded
by the European Union
8. Evolution of electricity consumption (ONE)
Evolution indicielle de la consommation
d'électricité, du PIB et de la population
(base 100 : 1988)
350
300
250
200
150
100
1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Population PIB Consommation d'électricité
This project is funded
by the European Union
9. Evolution of the electricity demand (Gwh)
This project is funded
by the European Union
11. Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency are major
components of the current Moroccan energy strategy.
In 2020, the part of Renewable Energies should represent
nearly 20% of the total energy consumption and 42% of
electricity consumption.
The main objective of the Energy Efficiency measures is to
save in 2020 over 15% ( 19% for housing).
For the case study, the selection of the EE and RE
technologies was based on the avalable data and information
on the new national energy strategy and meetings established
with some concerned organizations like Ministry of Enegy and
Mines, Office National de l'Electricité et l'Agence de
développement des énergies renouvelables et de l'efficacité
This project is funded
énergétique (ex. CDER).
by the European Union
11
12. Renewable Energies
Solar;
Wind;
Biomass;
Geothermal;
Hydro;
…
This project is funded
by the European Union
13. Place of RE in the national mix power (ONE)
National Energy Strategy:
This project is funded
by the European Union
RE 42% in 2020
14. Energy Efficiency
Four pillars:
Legislative and regulatory frameworks;
The institutional and organizational arrangments for promotion
and facilitation;
Sectoral action programs or transverse, national and local
(industries, tertiary, services, households, housing);
Funding mechanisms.
National Energy Strategy:
Save in 2020 over 15% ( 19% for housing )
This project is funded
by the European Union
15. BAC shows the additional energy savings and
net costs of several technologies/options (from
the societal perspective);
Policy-makers can see on the BACs:
technology / option with the highest energy savings
most cost effective technology / option
With BACs, policy makers can identify easily the
best option according to the priority:
Cost savings
Energy savings
This project is funded
by the European Union
15
16. BACs also shows :
Maximal benefit (minimal net costs) by implementing all
measures with negative net costs/ improvement of the
competitiveness;
Maximal energy saving without extra-costs/improvement of the
security of energy supplies;
BACs deliver information in a simple way to policy
makers
on one single chart: energy potential and cost-effectiveness
of several technologies/options
ranking of options (according to increasing net-costs)
With BACs: policy makers see clearly where to act.
This project is funded
by the European Union
17. Scenarios and scenarios comparison
Additional Energy Savings
Net Costs of Energy Saved
Scenarios and scenarios comparison
BAC is a method to compare 2 scenarios.
Main difference between scenarios and forecasts:
forecasts and prognoses aim to describe how the future will be;
scenarios aim to describe how the future might be under certain
assumptions or to show a possible path in order to achieve a
goal in the future.
Different options for choice of baseline: Depending on the
objective of the analysis.
This project is funded
by the European Union
17
18. The scenarios considered are:
Business As Usual Scenario (BAU or Reference Scenario)
=>market shares of Energy Efficiency Technologies increase according
to the actual trend, same for the RE capacities
Energy Efficiency Scenario (EE Scenario):
=> EE Technologies market shares are high (if EE = Best Available
Technology, BAT market share is almost 100%), fast build up of RE
capacities.
BAC:
X-Axis: Additional Energy Saving Potentials (for EE) and/or
Additional Energy Generation Potentials (for RE)
=>Additional Energy Savings Potentials (of the conventional electricity mix)
Y-Axis: Net Costs of Energy Saved (for EE) and/or Net Costs of
Energy Generation (for RE)
=>Net Costs of Energy Saved (of the conventional electricity mix)
This project is funded
by the European Union
19. Additional Energy Savings
Determination of Specific energy consumption in BAU and EE
scenarios
Calculation of the whole stock of EE technology: estimation of the
Additional Number of BAT technology Units (ANBU) in EE-scenario
(compared to BAU scenario)
ANBU2020 =NBU2020,EE − NBU2020,BAU
NBU2020 = NBU2015- NRBU2020-2015+ (SG2020-2015 + NRU2020-2015) x
MSB2015-2020
NBU: Number of BAT technology Units
NRBU: Number of Replaced BAT technology Units (lifetime exceeded)
SG: Stock Growth (stock in 2020 – stock in 2015)
NRU: Number of Replaced technology Units (all: BAT and not BAT)
MSB: Market Share of BAT technology.
Calculation of Additional Energy Savings=ASES (Additional
Specific Energy Savings) x ANBU(Additional Number of BAT technology Units)
This project is funded
by the European Union
20. Costs of Energy Saved (CES)
Only the additional costs of the BAT technology have to be considered
Calculation of the levelised additional costs per year (ΔA): ΔA = A(ΔI0) + CF;
with:
A(ΔI0):annuity of additional investment of BAT vs. not BAT technology
CF: average annual cash flows (saved energy and O&M costs)
CES = ΔA/ASES
Net Costs of Energy Saved (NCES)
Net costs
=Additional costs of technical or organisational energy efficiency
measures (additional compared to the baseline case)
- Long-run avoided system costs for the supply of energy (including or
excluding external costs)
- Avoided maintenance costs of the technology (or plus additional
maintenance costs)
NCES = CES – LASC
With LASC (Long-run Avoided System Costs) include: Full generation costs at
border crossing, For electricity: long-run avoided system costs for transmission and distribution,
grid-losses, and reserve capacities.
This project is funded
by the European Union
21. Case Study
Data collection: documentation analyses from the government
institutions (Ministry of Energy & Mines, Electricity authority, agency
of development of renewable energies and energy efficiency),
meeting and discussion with some Moroccan experts
Primary, generation, consumer energy prices considered:
Primary energy prices: default values
Generation, consumer: information collected from the Ministry of
Energy & Electricity authority
Avoided electricity costs for end users: determined on the basis of
data we nomally use in the studies of energy planning completed by
information from Electricity authority
Avoided energy supply costs for national economy: ditto
This project is funded
by the European Union
21
22. Renewable technologies country
potential.
Resultsof the excel sheets RE Potential
for each RE technologies.
Conclusions.
This project is funded
by the European Union
22
23. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Potential
This project is funded
by the European Union
24. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Results of the excel
sheets RE Potential for each RE technologies
This project is funded
by the European Union
25. Methodology for the BAC/RE: Conclusions
The potential of Renewable Energies will
grow from 2024 MW in 2010 to 7542 MW
in 2020.
This evolution means that the grow rate of
installed capacity for the RE will be about
14% per year.
During the same period, the production of
energy from the RE will be multiplied by
four, it will go from 4 Twh/a to nearly 18
This project is funded
by the European Union
26. Efficient technologies country potential.
Resultsof the excel sheets EE Potential
for each EE technologies.
Conclusions.
This project is funded
by the European Union
26
33. Heating EE3.1 / Results
This project is funded
by the European Union
34. High pressure sodium EE3.10 / Results
This project is funded
by the European Union
35. Methodology for the BAC/EE: Conclusions
Tech. Technically feasible total electricity saving in 2020: 2,56 Twh
equivalent to 6% of projected domestic demand in 2020
EE1.11
EE1.12
EE1.13
EE2.9
EE2.10
EE3.9
EE3.1
EE3.10
This project is funded
by the European Union
36. Output intermediate result
Output (ThinkCells)
Budget Allocation Charts
Budget Allocation Charts (Accumulated net costs)
This project is funded
by the European Union
36
41. Information and dissemination of the BAC-model and its
results.
Workshops to the attention of departments, agencies or
communities concerned with targeting receptive and
players can multiply and reproduce the actions of
dissemination.
Assistance to (cooperation with) specific sectors or
communities for the implementation of concrete actions.
This project is funded
by the European Union
41