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Futures in the Math Class
- 1. Futures in the Math Class Dr. Peter Bishop Futures Studies University of Houston
- 2. The Study of the Future
- 14. Futures Methods
- 16. Current Conditions How big?
- 17. How Big is What? People Number, place, sex, age, ethnic use technology Farming, energy, construction, manufacturing, transportation, information, military, biology to transform resources Water, food, materials, energy into economic goods Global, national, industrial, occupational, organizational (and waste products) Air, water, solid, hazardous under government International, financial, regulation social, infrastructure in a cultural context Traditions, beliefs, values Language Beliefs Values Norms People Nature Technology Government Economy
- 21. U.S. Energy Flow, 2009 http://www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf
- 24. Trends How fast? World Population in 2:45 min
- 26. U.S. Energy Overview http://www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1.pdf
- 27. A picture is a worth a thousand numbers! What do you see?
- 28. Impressions make a big difference
- 30. The Shapes of Incremental Change Linear Cyclic Asymptotic Exponential
- 31. The Real Shape of Change Logistic Gompertz Pearl Fisher-Pry S-Curve 1 No problem. 2 What is going on here? 3 Whew!
- 32. Eras in Information Technology
- 34. Transportation Eras Speed Riding Motoring Flying Law of diminishing returns Running Inherent capacity for performance
- 35. Measurements of Change Absolute = X 2 – X 1 Percent change (x 2 - x 1 ) / x 1 * 100 Index numbers x 2 / x 1 * 100 Base of 100 Proportional change (x 2 - x 1 ) / x 1 Ratio change x 2 / x 1 Base of x 1 Numerator of difference Numerator of x 2
- 36. U.S. Energy Production, 1949-2009 Absolute = 41.2 Quads Percent change 130% Index numbers 230 Base of 100 Proportional change 1.30 Ratio change 2.30 Base of x 1 Numerator of difference Numerator of x 2
- 37. U.S. Energy Production, 1949-1970 Absolute = 31.8 Quads Percent change 111% Index numbers Base of 100 Proportional change Ratio change Base of x 1 Numerator of difference Numerator of x 2
- 38. U.S. Energy Production, 1949-1970 Absolute = 31.8 Quads Percent change 111% Index numbers 211 Base of 100 Proportional change 1.11 Ratio change 2.11 Base of x 1 Numerator of difference Numerator of x 2
- 39. Measures per Unit of Time 3.6% 5.3% 1.5 Q 1949 -1970 0.7% 1.4% (x 2 / x 1 ) ^ (1 / # yrs) – 1 [ Solving x 2 = x 1 * ( 1 + r ) ^ # yrs for r ] Compound average growth rate (CAGR) 0.8% 2.2% (x 2 - x 1 ) / x 1 * 100) / # yrs percent change / # yrs Annual average growth rate (AAGR) 0.2 Q 68.7 Q (x 2 - x 1 ) / # yrs absolute change / # yrs Average change per unit (year) 1970 -2009 1949 - 2009
- 41. Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation
- 42. Forecast to 2040 90.8 Q 110.7 Q X 3 = x 2 * ( 1 + CAGR) ^ 30 Compound average growth rate (CAGR) 91.5 Q 120.4 Q X 3 = x 2 * ( 1 + AAGR * 30 ) Annual average growth rate (AAGR) 80.3 Q 93.6 Q X 3 = X 2 + AAC * 30 Annual absolute change (AAC) 1970 -2009 1949 - 2009
- 45. Still a Choice from 2009
- 46. The Cone of Plausibility The Future is many, not one. Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College Present Limit of Plausibility Alternative Futures Limit of Plausibility Past Implications Baseline
- 48. So What?
- 55. Appendix 90.8 211.4 110.7 CAGR 91.5 188.2 120.4 AAGR 80.3 118.4 93.6 AAC Forecast to 2040 0.7% 3.6% 1.4% CAGR 0.8% 5.3% 2.2% AAGR 0.2 1.5 0.69 AAC 39 21 60 Years 1.33 2.11 2.30 Ratio change 33% 111% 130% Percent change 9.5 31.8 41.2 Absolute change 1970-2009 1949-1970 1949-2009
Notas del editor
- Course objective: Student will be able to describe changes that are going in the environment and initiate change to create a preferred future for themselves and for TRADOC. Audience : TRADOC Interns Length: Four hours
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- The two major divisions of futures studies and four important roles. (Marine images again!)
- A summary of futures techniques in six steps. These are the steps we use to build the survey of futures techniques.
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- A wider set of factors to consider when describing change. These are the famous STEEP categories (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) with Social divided into Demographic and Cultural. We just found out that we think that the categories came from STEP, created by Arnold Brown of Weiner, Edrich and Brown when he was publishing the Trend Analysis Reports for the Life Insurance Council of America in the late 1960s. According to Joe Coates, someone added Environmental in the 1970s after the flowering of the environmental movement. Other common categorizations are PEST and EPISTLE (by adding Information and Legal).
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- These are common shapes of continuous change used to trend forecasters to predict what value a variable will have in the future.
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Org chart and Network picture