"Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013
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In 2012, California unions defeated Prop 32, an anti-union measure funded by the Koch Brothers and other corporate interests, by using a unique combination of sophisticated microtargeting and online advertising to supplement a traditional field and media campaign. This effort led to a 13-point victory and produced down-ticket effects, including passing Prop 30 (which taxes the rich) and capturing two-thirds Democratic majorities in the State legislature. This session at Netroots Nation 2013 discussed how labor used ground-breaking microtargeting online and in the field to connect with new and hard-to-reach younger voters who watch little TV or traditionally engage on political issues.
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"Reaching Voters Where They Are" - California Labor Federation microtargeting panel at Netroots Nation 2013
- 1. Reaching Voters Where they Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 2. Million More Voters: An Overview Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 3. The 2012 Campaign: Our Approach Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 4. • The goal: – Continue relationship with disengaged progressives – Win on issues that MMV targets care about • Questions: – What issue(s) do we focus on? – Who do we communicate with? – How do we reach them? – What do we say? The 2012 MMV Approach rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 5. A Year of Learning Phase Date Who Finding 1. Exploratory Focus Groups December 2011 Previous MMV targets “Make it clear that the initiative is deceptive and that corporate elites are using the initiative process to trick voters into giving them more power.” 2. Baseline Survey March 2012 Likely voters SuperPAC Expansion Act has greater uncertainty; Sales Tax Act has greater support. 3. Special Exemptions Focus Groups April 2012 Likely voters “Exemption” beats “loophole”. Best arguments : Cost, Unrestricted SuperPACs, Who’s Behind It 4. Special Exemptions Survey May 2012 Likely voters 5. Microtargeting I June 2012 Likely voters Identify “persuadables” rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 6. A Year of Learning Phase Date Who Finding 6. Phone EIP August 2012 Persuasion targets “Special Exemptions Act” increases recall 7. Persuasion Messaging Survey September 2012 Persuasion targets The best “villain” depends on party 8. Microtargeting II September 2012 Likely voters Update model; create model for TV watching 9. GOTV Messaging Survey September 2012 GOTV targets “Special Exemptions Act” matters for likelihood of voting 10. Post-Election Survey November 2012 Persuasion targets Did it work?! rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 7. Taking it to the Field Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 8. Field Campaign At a Glance Paid program • 14 field offices • 13 week program • 500+ field organizers (increased to 800+ for GOTV) • More than 720,000 contacts, over half a million NO on 32 IDs Volunteer program – Alliance for a Better California partners hosted phoning & walks statewide • Over 65 different locations by GOTV rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 9. Statewide Props 32/30 Vote by County STATEWIDE VOTE Prop NO YES 32 6,940,282 - 57% 5,328,207 - 43% 30 5,584,785 - 45% 6,902,562 - 55% California Nov 2012 Election Prop 32 No Yes Prop 30 Yes No rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 10. Field Campaign Components • Targeting & planning • Convening & coordination of Alliance partners and allies with field programs • Support & training for volunteer field programs of Alliance partners and allies • Large-scale, paid direct voter contact operation • Data collaboration and technology rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 11. Lessons Learned • Statewide scale for a statewide issue is key • Tailoring plan & program to individual strengths & capacities of participating organizations was very effective • Close collaboration of Alliance partners with field programs made us stronger & more efficient – volunteer programs, data management, divvying up work • Good modeling, messaging & ads to amplify our message helped tremendously rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 12. Direct Mail Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 13. Nothing 32 Mail MMV Mail No TV Nothing 32 Mail Some Mail TV No Mail Some TV Nothing 32 Mail TV Only No TV Rarely Watch TV 4+ Hours Daily TV Oppose Undecided Support rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 14. Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchers rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 15. Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchers rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 16. Online Tools & Tactics Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 17. Look Familiar to Anyone? Plus, 56% of women and 65% of men skip TV commercials! • rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 18. Why Digital? Media Consumption Shifts Towards Digital Digital is now the third most popular news consumption medium. Video is a large part of this consumption pattern and growing larger Pew Internet “How Media Consumption has changed since 2000” 6.24.10 Pew Internet “Demographics of internet users” May 2011 Online Video Behavior rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 19. Truly Integrated Targeting rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio • List Match: Swimming in the cookie pool – We didn’t approximate common targeting, we did it – List matching lets us customize ads, not shoot for lowest- common denominator messaging like on TV • Complementary display and banner ads – We got the impressions and impact we needed with the budget we had • Synchronous multi-channel communications – Online wasn’t a silo, and it wasn’t “new” media. It was an interlocking piece of a broader voter contact program
- 20. Effective Ads for Our Targets rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 21. Effective Ads in Post-TV World • Moving past TV does NOT mean moving past video… • It means connecting with the public where they are, not where we wish they were… • The right ad creative delivered to the right audience produces real results. rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 22. Targeted outreach moved polling numbers VOTER TARGETING WORKED: In late October, the under-35 demographic was behind in the polls. We used voter-file targeting to specifically isolate this group, and designed ad creative to appeal to a more youthful audience. This mirrored offline direct-mail efforts. 22% Swing: In the days following this change in strategy, we saw a movement of up to 22% in favorability for the NO side. rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 23. The 2012 Campaign: Results Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 26. How Many Voters Were Persuaded? • MMV walk, phone, and mail persuasion accounts for about half the 1.64 million vote margin. • Does not include online persuasion, GOTV, or network effects. Mode Voters Contacted Estimated Effect Net No Votes Percent of Margin MMV Walk 194,779 11.98% 46,669 2.8% MMV Phone 556,837 4.07% 45,327 2.8% MMV Mail 3,041,288 11.80% 717,744 43.7% Total 3,792,904 — 809,740 49.3% rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
- 27. Questions? Reaching Voters Where They Are: THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio
Editor's Notes
- This and the next slide are meant to address the question of how exactly voters were affected by contacts, both to support the validity of the effect estimates for vote choice and to understand more about the results of contacts for the sake of future campaignsThese slides are set up to be independent of those before or after, and so could be skipped/dropped if necessary for time constraints.Vote recall is used as a proxy for awareness of Prop 32, since those who were already familiar with the measure are more likely to remember how they voted better than those who hadn’t heard of it before November 6.
- We produced versions of the report’s figures that include only internal MMV contacts, to simplify presentation and sharpen the focus on the results of the MMV’s own contacts. For those not familiar with confidence intervals, the easiest way to explain them is to say that:They’re provided to indicate the level of uncertainty we have about our estimatesThis uncertainty comes from extrapolating upwards from a survey sample, and can be understand as our expectation about what would happen if we repeated the survey and analysis with new samplesThe point estimate given is the median of this distribution: we would expect the result to be higher than that about half the time, and lower the other halfThe intervals represent the range between the 5th and 95th percentiles: we would expect a lower value only 5 of 100 times, and a higher value only 5 of 100 timesIn case someone asks about the correlation/causation question, note the random assignment of contacts and controls within the targeting universe.Walk contacts have high uncertainty because the contact rate in survey was very low (~2%, vs 35% for phone and 39% for mail)Much of the uncertainty in mail effects comes from experimental treatment design---everyone in mail treatment group treated the same (to avoid selection bias) even though only about half actually received mail.
- Net votes reflect a swing in the Yes/No vote margin on Prop 32 from voters persuaded by the campaignAs modeled, each persuaded voter is equal to two net votes, since they are one less Yes vote and one more No voteMain takeaway is that this is a very impressive number---if the race were as close as expected, would have been decisiveThis is only a partial reflection of the campaign’s total impact, and doesn’t include:Additional turnout (in general as well as on this question specifically) from GOTV outreachSecondary influence of persuaded voters on friends and familyTargeted online adsTargeting scores and messaging research shared with external partners