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- 2. Les themes d’investissement de demain Name Surname Job title T: 000 0000 0000 name.surname@fil.com Name Surname Job title T: 000 0000 0000 name.surname@fil.com Les thèmes d’investissement de demain
- 3. Contents 3 3 Révolutions énergétiques et technologiques d’aujourd’hui et de demain 2 Quelles sont les méga-tendances du 21ieme siècle? 1 Investir à la Luxembourgeoise
- 4. Investir “à la Luxembourgeoise” Source: www.athome.lu Source: www.bcee.lu TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION
- 5. Croissance de la population/ressources limitées Consommation de la classe moyenne émergente Vieillissement et santé Les méga-tendances modifient le paysage mondial… TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION
- 6. La population mondiale ne cesse de croître… … principalement dans les pays émergents world Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, April 2014. Croissance de la population …augmentant le coût des ressources finies TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION
- 7. Source: United Nations Population Division, Bureau, March 2015. * Quote from United Nations.. Vieillissement de la population ‘Une période de vieillissement sans paralèle dans l’histoire’* TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION Le monde commence à griser Le vieillissement de la population : le nombre de personnes âgées a plus que triplé depuis 1950; il devrait quasiment tripler encore une fois d’ici 2050 – Baisse de la fertilité – Recul des taux de mortalité – Particulièrement marqué dans les pays développés : les personnes âgées de plus de 60 ans devraient représenter un tiers de la population totale en 2050 contre 20 % aujourd’hui Du fil à retordre pour les Etats mais des opportunités pour les entreprises – Développement du secteur de la santé – Certains loisirs pour personnes âgées – Développement de l’automatisation et de la robotique pour palier à une moindre productivité
- 8. Vieillissement de la population ‘Une période de vieillissement sans paralèle dans l’histoire’* TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION Avec un phénomène “50 shades of Grey” omniprésent
- 9. Source: OECD Development Centre, 'The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries', 2010 Middle class consumer spending 2009 to 2030, millions of 2005 PPP dollars Consommation de la classe moyenne émergente TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION La répartition de la richesse mondiale est en train de changer. • Croissance de la classe moyenne : la richesse se diffuse • Le potentiel de croissance de la consommation se trouve au sein des pays émergents, les secteurs de la distribution, de l’automobile, des services financiers et de la télécommunication sont la proie d’acteurs domestiques et de multinationales
- 10. Big data et la cybersécurité Evolution paysage énergétique Fabrication de pointe Internet des objets TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION …tandis que l’innovation de rupture apporte des changements et opportunités spectaculaires
- 11. Big Data Une autre revolution industrielle TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION Les données proviennent de toutes les sources et sous toutes les formes Le terme « big data » recouvre « l’exploitation de données massives » que les logiciels classiques de bases de données ont du mal à gérer Un défi technologique s’offre aux entreprises afin d’exploiter « intelligemment » ces données pour optimiser: – Gains de productivité – Gestion des chaînes d’approvisionnement – Connaissance de sa base clients – Décisions d’ordre stratégique… Collecte et analyse de ces données offriront, pour des start-up ou des géants technologiques tels que Cisco Systems ou SAP, un retour sur investissement très élevé
- 12. L’internet des objets: vers un monde plus connecté • L’”Internet des Objets” est un ecosystème global d’objets physiques connectés pouvant analyser et communiquer des données sans intervention humaine. • Ce secteur est soutenu par la baisse des prix du materiel électronique, la hausse mondiale de la connectivité, des ordinateurs de plus en plus puissant et le développement du Cloud. • L’Internet des Objets créera des gagnants: - les fournisseurs de matériel pour la fabrication de ces objets - sur le long terme pour les societes développant les applications par exemple dans des secteurs tels que la santé et le fitness TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION L’Internet des Objets Connecter plus que des objets
- 13. TRADITION MEGA TENDANCES INNOVATION
- 14. This is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors Important Information This information is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity/Fidelity Worldwide Investment means FIL Limited and its subsidiary companies. Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of Fidelity. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. The research and analysis used in this documentation is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an investment manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity only offers information on products and services and does not provide investment advice based on an individual's circumstances. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Issued by FIL Investments International (FCA registered number 122170) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., authorised and supervised by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and FIL Investment Switzerland AG, authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA. IC15/35
Notas del editor
- The world’s population continues to grow exponentially. This is fuelling demand for finite resource, especially those that are critical to sustaining life: food, water and energy. The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise 50% by 2030. This will be attributed to rising population growth and changes in diets. Rising meat prices have been driven by emerging market demand where a new middle class is emerging.
- The number of older people has more than tripled since 1960; it will almost triple again by 2050 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2009) We are living through a period of population ageing that is without parallel in the history of humanity. This process is a result of declining fertility and falling mortality rates. Population ageing brings with it a whole host of economic challenges. This includes a reduced labour supply and rising age related expenditure: public pension costs, healthcare and long-term care. It is a development that presents some attractive investment opportunities, such as healthcare.
- The number of older people has more than tripled since 1960; it will almost triple again by 2050 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2009) We are living through a period of population ageing that is without parallel in the history of humanity. This process is a result of declining fertility and falling mortality rates. Population ageing brings with it a whole host of economic challenges. This includes a reduced labour supply and rising age related expenditure: public pension costs, healthcare and long-term care. It is a development that presents some attractive investment opportunities, such as healthcare.
- The world’s population is not just growing – the composition of global wealth is also changing. Global brands that span basics (ie toothpaste) to luxury items, should all stand to benefit from the emergence of a new middle class. Many large multi-national companies now derive a significant portion of their earnings from emerging markets – Asia in particular. Asia’s middle class is expected to expand substantial by 2030, presenting a huge consumer base.
- To understand big data, we can look at three key characteristics: Volume, Variety and Velocity. Volume: the exponential growth in data volumes is a key issue driving improvements in communications networks. However, it is a mistake to believe volume is the only big data characteristic that deserves attention. Arguably, it is the least important in terms of usefulness to companies. Variety and velocity is where the most value add is likely to be found. Variety describes the number of different data types. Interpreting and analysing different data types in conjunction with each other can create tremendous value. For instance, the social media website, Facebook, stores a vast amount of information about its account holders. It stores different types of information: sex, age, location, martial status, favourite books or films, and even which brands users ‘like’. Companies can find out who likes their brand, the age group they fall under and whether they are more likely to be male or female. Accordingly, they can selectively target this segment in tailored marketing campaigns. Velocity refers to the shelf life of data because there is little point in storing data that is out of date. For instance, in the US, healthcare providers discard up to 90% of the data that they generate. Much of it is collected from real time video feeds during surgery. Likewise, shops often delete CCTV footage from security cameras after a certain time period has elapsed.
- Successive advances in computing have been driven by declining costs and improving functionality. The chart shows that each ‘wave’ has supported ten times more users than the last. The mobile wave is still ongoing but investors are looking forward to the next stage. Fidelity thinks the next wave could be the ‘internet of things’ – a global ecosystem of connected physical objects that can process and communicate data without human involvement. This involves physical objects accurately sensing their environment and communicating this information to improve the efficiency of a system or a process. We are now realising that the internet can connect more than just computers.
- Genuine active management is about being different to the market index based on insightful and convincing research. Academic research by Cremers and Petajisto suggests that not only do truly active managers outperform (after fees) but they tend do so persistently. And, it is possible to identify these managers by looking at how active they are, how much they cost and how well they have performed. To ascertain how active a fund manager is we can look at how different they are from the benchmark index. This can be measured using ‘active money’, which is the sum of all of a manager’s overweight positions plus cash, expressed as a percentage of the portfolio’s net assets.