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Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
Robert Gardner
Fidelity Institutional Conference 2012
Short-Term Crisis or Long-Term Regime
Change? Implications for Strategic Asset
Allocation
1
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
Our Philosophy
2
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 3
7 Steps to Full Funding
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
Setting Clear Goals and Objectives:
The Pensions Risk Management Framework (PRMF)
4
Source: Redington.
Objective Performance Indicators Actual Performance
Funding strategy
To reach full funding
by 2020
Funding ratio on IAS19 basis 85%
Funding ratio on Gilts Flat basis 70%
Expected returns in
excess of required
returns
Expected returns from current
investment strategy
Gilts + 300bps
Risk target
1-year 1-in-20
minimum worst-case
loss should not
exceed 15% of
liabilities
1-year 95% Value-at-Risk >[15]%
Aspirational target
To be fully inflation
and interest rate
hedged
Nominal hedge ratio <[80]%
Inflation hedge ratio <[80]%
Scheme constraint
Liquidity & collateral
requirements
Liquidity: cash held sufficient to pay
two months of benefits
£50m
Collateral: available eligible collateral
sufficient to meet potential collateral
calls on derivative positions
>£500m
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
The Flight Plan
5
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
LDI Hub
6
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 7
Liability Driven Investment
30-Year Gilt Real Yield
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
30-YearGiltRealYieldin%
Chart TitleBoots Pension Fund shifts to 100%
AAA long-dated sterling bond
allocation
DMO issues 50-year inflation-
linked gilt
F&C launches equity-linked pooled
bond fundFriends Provident implements first
derivative-based inflation and
interest rate hedge
Barclays Global Investors
launches segregated and pooled
funds for LDI
Inflation concerns elevated after oil
price hits record of $145 per barrel
Collapse of Lehman Brothers,
traditional gilt/swap spread inverts
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
Credit Spread and Gilt Yield Evolution
8
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
bps
Sterling IG 15+ Corporate Spread 20-Year Gilt Real Yield IG Spread + Real Yield
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
The Pessimist - The Optimist -The Realist
9
Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012
13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD Telephone : +44 (0) 20 7250 3331 www.redington.co.uk
Contacts
Robert Gardner
Founder & Co-CEO
Direct Line: 020 3326 3416
robert.gardner@redington.co.uk
Risk Management Firm
of the Year (2011, 2012)
Pension Consultant of the
Year 2012
Disclaimer
For professional investors only. Not suitable for
private customers.
The information herein was obtained from various
sources. We do not guarantee every aspect of its
accuracy. The information is for your private
information and is for discussion purposes only. A
variety of market factors and assumptions may
affect this analysis, and this analysis does not reflect
all possible loss scenarios. There is no certainty that
the parameters and assumptions used in this
analysis can be duplicated with actual trades. Any
historical exchange rates, interest rates or other
reference rates or prices which appear above are
not necessarily indicative of future exchange rates,
interest rates, or other reference rates or prices.
Neither the information, recommendations or
opinions expressed herein constitutes an offer to buy
or sell any securities, futures, options, or investment
products on your behalf. Unless otherwise stated,
any pricing information in this message is indicative
only, is subject to change and is not an offer to
transact. Where relevant, the price quoted is
exclusive of tax and delivery costs. Any reference to
the terms of executed transactions should be treated
as preliminary and subject to further due diligence .
Please note, the accurate calculation of the liability
profile used as the basis for implementing any
capital markets transactions is the sole responsibility
of the Trustees' actuarial advisors. Redington Ltd will
estimate the liabilities if required but will not be held
responsible for any loss or damage howsoever
sustained as a result of inaccuracies in that
estimation. Additionally, the client recognizes that
Redington Ltd does not owe any party a duty of care
in this respect.
Redington Ltd are investment consultants regulated
by the Financial Services Authority. We do not
advise on all implications of the transactions
described herein. This information is for discussion
purposes and prior to undertaking any trade, you
should also discuss with your professional tax,
accounting and / or other relevant advisers how such
particular trade(s) affect you. All analysis (whether in
respect of tax, accounting, law or of any other
nature), should be treated as illustrative only and not
relied upon as accurate.
Redington Limited (reg no 6660006) is a company
authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and registered in England and
Wales. Registered office: 13-15 Mallow Street
London EC1Y 8RD
10
http://twitter.com/robertjgardner
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/robertjgardner

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Short-Term Crisis or Long-Term Regime Change? Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation

  • 1. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 Robert Gardner Fidelity Institutional Conference 2012 Short-Term Crisis or Long-Term Regime Change? Implications for Strategic Asset Allocation 1
  • 2. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 Our Philosophy 2
  • 3. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 3 7 Steps to Full Funding
  • 4. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 Setting Clear Goals and Objectives: The Pensions Risk Management Framework (PRMF) 4 Source: Redington. Objective Performance Indicators Actual Performance Funding strategy To reach full funding by 2020 Funding ratio on IAS19 basis 85% Funding ratio on Gilts Flat basis 70% Expected returns in excess of required returns Expected returns from current investment strategy Gilts + 300bps Risk target 1-year 1-in-20 minimum worst-case loss should not exceed 15% of liabilities 1-year 95% Value-at-Risk >[15]% Aspirational target To be fully inflation and interest rate hedged Nominal hedge ratio <[80]% Inflation hedge ratio <[80]% Scheme constraint Liquidity & collateral requirements Liquidity: cash held sufficient to pay two months of benefits £50m Collateral: available eligible collateral sufficient to meet potential collateral calls on derivative positions >£500m
  • 5. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 The Flight Plan 5
  • 6. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 LDI Hub 6
  • 7. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 7 Liability Driven Investment 30-Year Gilt Real Yield -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 30-YearGiltRealYieldin% Chart TitleBoots Pension Fund shifts to 100% AAA long-dated sterling bond allocation DMO issues 50-year inflation- linked gilt F&C launches equity-linked pooled bond fundFriends Provident implements first derivative-based inflation and interest rate hedge Barclays Global Investors launches segregated and pooled funds for LDI Inflation concerns elevated after oil price hits record of $145 per barrel Collapse of Lehman Brothers, traditional gilt/swap spread inverts
  • 8. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 Credit Spread and Gilt Yield Evolution 8 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 bps Sterling IG 15+ Corporate Spread 20-Year Gilt Real Yield IG Spread + Real Yield
  • 9. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 The Pessimist - The Optimist -The Realist 9
  • 10. Private & Confidential Fidelity 10 October 2012 13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD Telephone : +44 (0) 20 7250 3331 www.redington.co.uk Contacts Robert Gardner Founder & Co-CEO Direct Line: 020 3326 3416 robert.gardner@redington.co.uk Risk Management Firm of the Year (2011, 2012) Pension Consultant of the Year 2012 Disclaimer For professional investors only. Not suitable for private customers. The information herein was obtained from various sources. We do not guarantee every aspect of its accuracy. The information is for your private information and is for discussion purposes only. A variety of market factors and assumptions may affect this analysis, and this analysis does not reflect all possible loss scenarios. There is no certainty that the parameters and assumptions used in this analysis can be duplicated with actual trades. Any historical exchange rates, interest rates or other reference rates or prices which appear above are not necessarily indicative of future exchange rates, interest rates, or other reference rates or prices. Neither the information, recommendations or opinions expressed herein constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, or investment products on your behalf. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information in this message is indicative only, is subject to change and is not an offer to transact. Where relevant, the price quoted is exclusive of tax and delivery costs. Any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as preliminary and subject to further due diligence . Please note, the accurate calculation of the liability profile used as the basis for implementing any capital markets transactions is the sole responsibility of the Trustees' actuarial advisors. Redington Ltd will estimate the liabilities if required but will not be held responsible for any loss or damage howsoever sustained as a result of inaccuracies in that estimation. Additionally, the client recognizes that Redington Ltd does not owe any party a duty of care in this respect. Redington Ltd are investment consultants regulated by the Financial Services Authority. We do not advise on all implications of the transactions described herein. This information is for discussion purposes and prior to undertaking any trade, you should also discuss with your professional tax, accounting and / or other relevant advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. All analysis (whether in respect of tax, accounting, law or of any other nature), should be treated as illustrative only and not relied upon as accurate. Redington Limited (reg no 6660006) is a company authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and registered in England and Wales. Registered office: 13-15 Mallow Street London EC1Y 8RD 10 http://twitter.com/robertjgardner http://uk.linkedin.com/in/robertjgardner