"Rwanda post-compact review: Does Rwanda investment plan meet the Compact long term growth and poverty outcome benchmarks?", presentation by John Ulimwengu at the USAID, IFPRI Financial Gap Analysis Workshop held at the World Bank, January 7, 2010.

1. IFPRI
Rwanda post-compact review:
Does Rwanda investment plan meet the
Compact long term growth and poverty outcome
benchmarks?
John Ulimwengu
International Food Policy Research Institute
USAID/World Bank Workshop on
“Agricultural investment priorities and financing gaps for achieving growth and
poverty reduction targets: Review of evidence and methodology”
January 7, 2010
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

2. Overall objective of post-compact review
Collectively evaluate
(i) the likelihood for the investment programs to realize the growth and poverty
reduction prospects laid out in the different strategy scenarios carried out for
the roundtable and summarized in the different roundtable brochures;
(ii) the use of best practices and other technical guidance in the pillar framework
documents in designing investment programs;
(iii) the technical realism (alignment of resources with results) and adequacy of
institutional arrangements of the programs;
(iv) the integration of CAADP principles of inclusive review and dialogue;
(v) the consistency with budgetary and development assistance commitments and
principles agreed in the compact.
IFPRI

3. Key questions
Review the consistency of proposed investment plans with country long
term growth and poverty reduction options:
(a) Are current trends in line with expected long term targets for growth,
poverty reduction and agricultural funding?
(b) Will proposed investment plan:
 Achieve the long term growth rates that are required under the
different growth and poverty reduction projections;
 Raise expenditure levels to meet the funding requirements that were
projected under the various scenarios, including progress towards the
10% budget target;
 Induce the changes in agricultural exports that were projected and are
required for the alternative growth and poverty reduction scenarios to
materialize;
 Bring about the targeted changes in national as well as disaggregated
poverty levels under the different growth and poverty reduction
scenarios.
IFPRI

4. Aggregate agricultural growth (%)
12
PSTA II
10
CAADP PSTII Ag GDP (6.5%):
8 Lower than expected
MDG1-2015 but higher
6 MDG1-2015
than CAADP (6%)
and pre-compact level
4 PRE-COMPACT
(4.2%)
2 POST-
COMPACT
0
IFPRI

5. Crop growth rates (%)
35.0
POST-COMPACT (2006-2009)
30.0 PSTA II
 Rice, vegetables,
fruits, and maize
MDG1-2015
25.0 are off target;
 sweet potatoes,
20.0 potatoes, wheat,
and bananas are
15.0
growing above
targeted MDG1
10.0
levels.
5.0
0.0
IFPRI

6. Growth of agricultural exports (%)
POST-COMPACT CAADP/MDG-2015
Hides and skins
 In 2008-2009,
major exports
Pyrethrum growth rates are
negative or lower
than long term
targets except for
Tea coffee (+13%)
Coffee
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40
IFPRI

7. Poverty rates (%)
POST-COMPACT PSTA II CAADP MDG1-2015  Poverty rate under PSTA II
63.4 is lower than CAADP but
57.6 still higher than MDG1-
2015;
46.6  If PSTA II growth and
42.4 40.7 productivity targets are
37.2 achieved and sustained,
34.0
30.9 MDG1 is achievable by
2020
National Rural
IFPRI

8. Agricultural share of total spending
PRE-
COMPACT PSTA II CAADP MDG1
Low- High- Low- High-
elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity
2001-2006 4.9
2010 6.7 6.6 4.4 9.2 5.2
2015 17.6 6.5 34.5 10.0
 Government is committed to allocate more funding to
agriculture compared to pre-compact period (4.9%).
IFPRI

9. Concluding remarks
 Performance during the post-compact period has, so far, exceeded the
long term targets in terms of overall economic and non-agricultural
sector growth;
 In contrast, growth performance in the agricultural sector, while 20%
higher than pre-compact levels, is nearly 50% below long term targets;
 If investment plans are successfully implemented to achieve their
implied yield targets for individual sectors, they would meet the required
long term growth objectives to realize the poverty MDG by 2020 but not
by 2015;
 There were no data to evaluate post-compact vulnerability trends. It is
vital that the necessary arrangements be made to regularly update the
baseline household survey information that was used during the pre-
compact analysis such as to facilitate tracking of poverty and
distributional impacts of the investment plans.
IFPRI