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Pre-commitment Strategies,[object Object],in behavioral economics,[object Object],Part I: Changing Rewards and Penalties,[object Object],Dr. Russell James III, Texas Tech University,[object Object]
Many self-inflicted harmful decisions are the result of exchanging instant gratification for risk of future negative consequences.,[object Object],Long-term,[object Object],Patient,[object Object],Planner,[object Object],Impartial spectator,[object Object],Deliberative ,[object Object],Cold state ,[object Object],Short-term,[object Object],Impulsive ,[object Object],Doer,[object Object],Passions,[object Object],Affective/Visceral,[object Object],Hot state ,[object Object]
The temptation of instant gratification can thwart our long-term dreams and goals.,[object Object],Long-term,[object Object],Patient,[object Object],Planner,[object Object],Impartial spectator,[object Object],Deliberative ,[object Object],Cold state ,[object Object],Short-term,[object Object],Impulsive ,[object Object],Doer,[object Object],Passions,[object Object],Affective/Visceral,[object Object],Hot state ,[object Object]
How am I going to live today in order to create the tomorrow I'm committed to?  ,[object Object],-Anthony Robbins,[object Object]
How can we change?,[object Object]
Pre-commitment gives the rider control over the elephant’s future environment.,[object Object],Few Temptations,[object Object],Many Temptations,[object Object]
Pre-commitment allows calm decision-making and reduces problems of hyperbolic discounting  and projection bias,[object Object]
Pre-commitment changes decisions from now v. later to later v. later.,[object Object],This avoids the “instant gratification” bias of hyperbolic discounting,[object Object]
Pre-commitment allows us to make decisions while in a cold state and creates barriers to change while in a hot state,[object Object],Cold   v.   Hot,[object Object],Projection Bias,[object Object]
Pre-commitment Strategies,[object Object],1.,[object Object],Change the rewards and penalties,[object Object],2.,[object Object],Change the number of decision points,[object Object]
1. Change the rewards and penalties,[object Object],The goal is to change the environment as perceived by the elephant.,[object Object],The elephant is ,[object Object],Emotional,[object Object],Focused on now ,[object Object],Fears loss,[object Object],Long-term,[object Object],Patient,[object Object],Planner,[object Object],Impartial spectator,[object Object],Deliberative ,[object Object],Cold state ,[object Object],Short-term,[object Object],Impulsive ,[object Object],Doer,[object Object],Passions,[object Object],Affective/Visceral,[object Object],Hot state ,[object Object]
Elephant characteristic,[object Object],Emotional ,[object Object],Focused on now ,[object Object],Hates loss,[object Object],Approach,[object Object],Change social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices,[object Object],Change immediate rewards of future choices,[object Object],Reframe the felt losses of future choices,[object Object]
 Emotional ,[object Object],Change social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices,[object Object],“Social relations are prime instigators of emotions”,[object Object],“when respondents are asked for instances in which they experienced certain emotions, invariably and with very high frequency they report contexts involving social relations”,[object Object],T. Kemper (St. John's U.), 1991, Predicting emotions from social relations. Social Psychology Quarterly, 54, 330-342,[object Object]
 Emotional ,[object Object],Change social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices,[object Object],Positive Choices,[object Object],Negative Choices,[object Object],Add social stigma,[object Object],[object Object]
Competition
PromisesAdd social status,[object Object],[object Object]
Competition
Promises,[object Object]
Retirement saving
Mutual fund selection
College selection
Competitive excellence,[object Object]
Financial peer groups - ROSCAS,[object Object],ROSCAS (Rotating Savings and Credit Association) a group of individuals who agree to meet for a defined period of time in order to save and borrow together. ,[object Object],http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyFmlXlsbhQ,[object Object],http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC7_OQou6MI&NR=1,[object Object]
Financial peer groups – Microfinance,[object Object],http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMg_Lc6akos(0:00-1:45),[object Object]
Reducing privacy to add social costs,[object Object],“In a cocaine addiction center…[patients] may write a self-incriminating letter, preferably a letter confessing their drug addiction, deposit the letter with the clinic and submit to a randomized schedule of laboratory tests.  If the laboratory finds evidence of cocaine use, the clinic sends the letter to the addressee.”,[object Object],T. Schelling (Harvard), 1992, “Self-Control” in G. Loewenstein and J. Elster (eds.), Choice over Time, New York: Russell Sage, p. 167,[object Object]
Reducing privacy to add social costs,[object Object],“In Lucien Leuwen, Mademoiselle de Chasteller takes care to see Lucien only in the company of a chaperone, to make it prohibitively costly to give in to her love for him.”,[object Object],J. Elster (Columbia U.), 2000, Ulysses unbound. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,[object Object]
Competition,[object Object],Competition creates a social group with standards, goals, and the opportunity to gain or lose social status,[object Object],Competition can motivate goal-oriented self-control.,[object Object]
Promises can add social stigma to negative behavior,[object Object]
Charitable pledges as promises ,[object Object],“an example of impulsive pre-commitment is given in [a study of radio appeals for WWII war bonds]… ‘in some instances, listeners telephoned at once precisely because they wished to commit themselves to a bond before inhibiting factors intervened’”,[object Object],T. Cowen (George Mason U.), 1991, Self-constraint versus self-liberation. Ethics, 101, p. 363, citing R. Merton (Columbia U.), 1946, Mass Persuasion, Westport, Conn: Greenwood, pp. 68-69,[object Object]
Elephant characteristic,[object Object],Emotional ,[object Object],Focused on now ,[object Object],Hates loss,[object Object],Approach,[object Object],Change social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices,[object Object],Change immediate rewards of future choices,[object Object],Reframe the felt losses of future choices,[object Object]
2. Focused on now ,[object Object],Change immediate rewards of future choices,[object Object],Negative Choices,[object Object],Positive Choices,[object Object],Reducing the immediate payoff,[object Object],Increasing the immediate payoff,[object Object]
Disulfiram accelerates the “hangover” effect of alcohol, so that you feel it about 5 minutes after drinking alcohol.,[object Object],“Approximately 200,000 alcoholics take disulfiram, or Antabuse, regularly in the United States.”,[object Object],Reduce the immediate payoff from negative choices,[object Object],S. Soghoian (NYU) & S. Wiener (SUNY), J Díaz-Alcalá, (Aug. 20, 2008) Disulfiram- Toxicity. Downloaded from  http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/814525-overview,[object Object]
Reduce immediate ,[object Object],payoff from negative,[object Object],choices,[object Object],“One study shows tentatively that treatment with naltrexone, a drug that blocks the operation of opiate receptors in the brain, reduces the urge to gamble.The same drug has been used to successfully treat “compulsive shopping”.”,[object Object],C. Camerer (Cal Tech), G. Loewenstein (Carnegie Mellon) & D. Prelec (MIT), 2005, Neuroeconomics: How neuroscience can inform economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 43, p. 45,[object Object]
Increase the ,[object Object],immediate payoff ,[object Object],from positive choices,[object Object],[object Object]
Incentivize the immediate behavior you want, not just the long-term outcome,[object Object]
Increase the ,[object Object],immediate payoff ,[object Object],from positive choices,[object Object],[object Object]
“Research on self-regulation shows that it isn’t enough to set a goal and make it a priority: People must monitor their progress toward the goal.”P. Silvia (U. North Carolina – Greensboro), 2007, How to write a lot. American Psychological Association: Washington, D.C., p. 39 citing T. Duval (U. Southern California) & P. Silvia (U. North Carolina – Greensboro), 2001, Self-awareness and causal attribution: A dual systems theory. Boston: Kluwer Academic,[object Object]
Increase the ,[object Object],immediate payoff ,[object Object],from positive choices,[object Object],“Writing’s rewards are delayed – it takes months to hear from journal editors and grant panels – so immediate self rewards will sustain your motivation.”,[object Object],“Only a fool, however, rewards productive writing with skipping a scheduled writing period.”,[object Object],P. Silvia (U. North Carolina – Greensboro), 2007, How to write a lot. American Psychological Association: Washington, D.C., p. 44,[object Object]
Application question,[object Object],Suppose you don’t like to write, but you need to finish a 20 page term project.,[object Object],What would be the best factor to monitor? Hours? Words? Pages?,[object Object],What would be a good immediate reward?  ,[object Object],What would not be a good immediate reward?,[object Object]
Elephant characteristic,[object Object],Emotional ,[object Object],Focused on now ,[object Object],Hates loss,[object Object],Approach,[object Object],Change social rewardsto alter emotional payoffs of future choices,[object Object],Change immediate rewards of future choices,[object Object],Reframe the felt losses of future choices,[object Object]
3. Hates loss,[object Object],Reframe the felt losses of future choices,[object Object],Negative Choices,[object Object],Positive Choices,[object Object],Adding Felt ,[object Object],Losses,[object Object],Removing Felt Losses,[object Object]
Adding felt losses,[object Object],Illiquidity (increasing loss from withdraws),[object Object],Contingent return of money (increasing loss from undesired behavior),[object Object],Adding preliminary deadlines (making losses felt earlier and more frequently),[object Object],Paying with cash (physically giving up something valuable),[object Object]
Illiquidity may encourage wealth accumulation by reducing the temptation to consume.,[object Object],“All Illiquid assets provide a form of pre-commitment”,[object Object],D. Laibson (Harvard), 1997, Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, p.444.,[object Object]
Unavailable,[object Object],[object Object],  Excess tax withholding,[object Object],Penalty for withdraw,[object Object],[object Object],Completely Unavailable,[object Object],Very High Penalty,[object Object],Current income + High transaction costs,[object Object],[object Object],High Penalty,[object Object],Modest,[object Object],Penalty,[object Object],Minor ,[object Object],Penalty,[object Object]
Contingent return of initial pledges,[object Object],“[Agreements where] a designated amount of weight loss is rewarded by return to the client of portions of a refundable money deposit … produced significantly greater losses (approximately 20 pounds) over a ten-week period than did a [comparable] treatment.” ,[object Object],G. Wilson (Rutgers U.) ,1980, “Behavior therapy and the treatment of obesity,” in W. R. Miller (ed.), The Addictive Behavoirs, Oxford: Pergamon Press, p. 218,[object Object]
Contingent return of initial pledges,[object Object],“The [contract] offered individuals a savings account in which they deposit funds for six months, after which they take a urine test for nicotine and cotinine. If they pass, their money is returned; otherwise, their money is forfeited to a charity of the bank’s choosing… [contract] usage increased the likelihood of smoking cessation by 30 percentage points or more.”,[object Object],X. Giné (World Bank), D Karlan, J Zinman, 2008, Put your money where your butt is: A commitment savings account for smoking cessation, MIMEO, Yale University ,[object Object]
Adding preliminary deadlines:Making losses felt earlier and more frequently,[object Object]
“‘The problem sets should have been graded. I had no incentive to do them, and as a result did poorly on the exams.’,[object Object],comment from anonymous teacher evaluation, undergraduate game theory course.”,[object Object],Is this an issue of lack of penalty or timing of penalty?,[object Object],T. O’Donoghue (Cornell) & M. Rabin (UC-Berkeley), “Incentives and self-control”, in Advances in Economics and Econometrics, Theory and Application 9th World Congress, Volume II, R. Blundell, W. Newey, & T. Persson (eds.), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.,[object Object]
College students paid to proofread 3 papers. Lost $1 for each day late,[object Object],Group A: ,[object Object],#1 due in 7 days,  ,[object Object],#2 due in 14 days,[object Object],#3 due in 21 days,[object Object],Group B: ,[object Object],Pick your own due dates (with penalties) between now and 21 days. ,[object Object],Group C: ,[object Object],3 papers due anytime in 21 days,[object Object]
College students paid to proofread 3 papers. Lost $1 for each day late,[object Object],Group A: ,[object Object],#1 due in 7 days,  ,[object Object],#2 due in 14 days,[object Object],#3 due in 21 days,[object Object],Group B: ,[object Object],Pick your own due dates (with penalties) between now and 21 days. ,[object Object],Group C: ,[object Object],3 papers due anytime in 21 days,[object Object],Which group paid the fewest late penalties?,[object Object]
Better results when potential losses occur earlier and more frequently,[object Object],Airely, D. (MIT) & Wertenbroch, K (INSEAD), 2002, Procrastination, deadlines, and performance: Self-control by precommitment. Psychological Science, 13(3), 219-224.,[object Object]
College students paid to proofread 3 papers. Lost $1 for each day late,[object Object],Group A: ,[object Object],#1 due in 7 days,  ,[object Object],#2 due in 14 days,[object Object],#3 due in 21 days,[object Object],Group B: ,[object Object],Pick your own due dates (with penalties) between now and 21 days. ,[object Object],Group C: ,[object Object],3 papers due anytime in 21 days,[object Object],Which group found the most errors?,[object Object]
Better results when potential losses occur earlier and more frequently,[object Object],Airely, D. (MIT) & Wertenbroch, K (INSEAD), 2002, Procrastination, deadlines, and performance: Self-control by precommitment. Psychological Science, 13(3), 219-224.,[object Object]
Adding felt losses – paying with cash,[object Object],“In studies involving genuine transactions of potentially high value we show that willingness-to-pay can be increased when customers are instructed to use a credit card rather than cash. The effect may be large (up to 100%).”,[object Object],D. Prelec (MIT) & D. Simester (MIT), 2001, Always leave home without it: A further investigation of the credit-card effect on willingness to pay. Marketing Letters ,12, 5-12, ,[object Object]
D. Soman (U. of Toronto), 2003, The effect of payment transparency on consumption: Quasi-experiments from the field. Marketing Letters, 14, 173-183.,[object Object]
Experimental purchase following series of check writing v. series of credit  card slip signing,[object Object],D. Soman (U. of Toronto), 2001, Effects of payment mechanism on spending behavior: The role of rehearsal and immediacy of payments. Journal of Consumer Research, 27, 460-474,[object Object]
Removing felt losses,[object Object],Pre-paying for the gym,[object Object],Keep the change,[object Object],Save more tomorrow,[object Object],Tax refund splitting,[object Object],Invest and ignore,[object Object],The automatic millionaire ,[object Object]
Removing felt losses,[object Object],In a study of gym memberships, “Eighty percent of the monthly members would have been better off had they paid per visit for the same number of visits.”,[object Object],But, if the goal was to increase the attendance, could this still be a good strategy?,[object Object],S. Dellavigna (UC-Berkeley) & U. Malmendier (Stanford), 2006, Paying not to go to the gym. American Economic Review, 96, 694-719,[object Object]
Removing felt losses,[object Object],The Automatic Millionaire: #1 selling business book of 2004,[object Object],Make savings automatic so that you don’t notice it (payroll deductions, automatic withdraws from checking, mortgage payment, etc.),[object Object]

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