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The impact of electric vehicles
on the energy industry
This study is part of the Austrian Climate Research Programme
Table of Contents




Summary                                                                4

1 Results                                                              4

2 Analysis of the traffic industry                                     5

3 Electric vehicles                                                    8

4 Energy industry                                                      9

5 Contribution of electric vehicles to energy industry (VG2 concept)   13

6 CO2 emissions                                                        16

7 Economic effects                                                     18

8 Possible contribution towards meeting energy efficiency targets      21
Summary




    The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of the impact that electric vehicles
    would have on the Austrian energy industry. The assumption that was made for this
    study is that purely electric vehicles were to be examined, meaning vehicles running
    on batteries without combustion engines. Taking as a basis data from 2007, the study
    examines the nature of the impact in the years 2020 and 2030. The underlying as-
    sumption of the study is that electric vehicles will make up 20% of the total number
    of passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles existing on the
    market (hereinafter referred to as “20% coverage”) where all registered vehicles are
    the data basis.

    Based on a traffic impact analysis, the following issues were examined in this study:

    •   Impact on electricity generation through the charging of electric vehicles
    •   Impact on the public power grid
    •   Changes to the Austrian carbon footprint
    •   Economic analysis including a cost-benefit calculation


    1    Results

    • 20% coverage (approx. 1 million electric vehicles) would lead to an increase in
      power consumption of approx. 3% and would not require the construction of
      further power plants.
    • An electricity consumption analysis over the course of an average day has shown
      that the power grid infrastructure currently in place provides sufficient capacity; ad-
      aptations to the distribution networks would be only required with regard to charging
      points. This means that 20% coverage would not require network reinforcements.
    • Introducing electric vehicles to the Austrian market would require the installation of
      approx. 16,200 electric vehicle charging points. Should, however, electric vehicles
      be mainly introduced in cities, approx. 2,800 charging points would need to be
      installed. These installations plus network connections would require investments
      amounting to EUR 111m and EUR 650m, respectively.
    • Assuming an electricity capacity mix corresponding to the amount of electricity gener-
      ated as of today, car emissions would be reduced to 40 g/km. This would amount to a
      reduction of two thirds as compared to the emissions caused by conventional vehicles.




                                                                              Klima- und Energiefonds
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• The carbon footprint (total carbon emissions produced in Austria) could be re-
  duced by 2 metric tons of CO2, which would mean a 16% reduction in carbon
  emissions caused by passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles
  (this figure is based on an electricity generation mix corresponding to the electricity
  generated as of today).
• With regard to the national economy, the introduction of electric vehicles would
  result in a positive net effect of approx. EUR 1.3bn. While this effect would have
  a more or less neutral impact on the national budget, it would be highly advanta-
  geous for investments, resulting in a positive net effect of EUR 1bn (which is ap-
  prox. 10% of the total industry volume as of today).
• In total, electric vehicles have a higher degree of efficiency than conventional vehi-
  cles. 20% coverage would lead to an energy reduction of approx. 8.4 TWh, which
  would be approx. 37% of the energy efficiency target set for 2016.


2     Analysis of the traffic industry

Based on the data and information available, vehicles were grouped into the following
categories:

• Passenger cars
• Two-wheeled vehicles (motorbikes, small mopeds, mopeds)
• Light duty vehicles

The calculations were based on the assumption that the average distances travelled
(in kilometres) for each vehicle category remain constant. This assumption can be
explained by the fact that statutory regulations are very likely to cause a pro-rata shift
towards public transport, thereby compensating for the rising number in vehicles.


Average number of kilometres travelled per year                                              Table 1:
                                                                                             Number of kilometres
Passenger cars                                    15,000 km                                  travelled per trip
                                                                                             purpose, 2007
Light duty vehicles                               15,000 km
Two-wheeled vehicles                               4,500 km                                  Source: PwC analysis




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                              5
The average number of kilometres travelled per year served as a basis for determining the
                               number of vehicles and kilometres travelled in 2020. These calculations have shown that
                               91% of all kilometres are travelled passenger cars (both for business and private pur-
                               poses). 6% of all kilometres are travelled by light duty vehicles and 3% by two-wheeled
                               vehicles. The results for the years 2007, 2020 and 2030 are shown in the table below:

Table 2:                       Volume of vehicles and kilometres travelled                   2007         2020                  2030
Number of vehicles and
kilometres travelled in 2007   Passanger vehicles               Volume                   4,245,583    4,443,826          4,589,583
and 2020                                                        km (in billions)/year        63.68        66.66              68.84
                               Two-wheeled vehicles             Volume                     435,905     456,259              471,224
Source: Statistik Austria,                                      km (in billions)/year         1.96        2.05                 2.12
PwC analysis
                               Light duty vehicles              Volume                     297,888     311,798              322,024
                                                                km (in billions)/year         4.47        4.68                 4.83

                               Total                            Volume                   4,979,376    5,211,882          5,382,831
                                                                km (in billions)/year         70.1            73.4               75.8

                               Total 20% coverage               Volume                     995,875    1,042,376          1,076,566
                               (electric vehicles)
                                                                km (in billions)/year         14.0            14.7               15.2


                               Furthermore, each individual vehicle category was studied for the following travel
                               purposes:

                               •   Commuters – daily travel to and from work
                               •   Business trips – work related journeys
                               •   Private/shopping – private shopping trips
                               •   Education – daily trips to and from learning institutions, schools, etc.
                               •   Leisure time – daily trips related to sporting activities, visits, etc.




                                                                                                              Klima- und Energiefonds
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The chart below shows the overall kilometre allocation in relation to the different travel
purposes.

                                                                                                                       4%                         Figure 1:
                                                                                                            15%                                   Number of kilometres
                                                                                                                                   33%            covered per travel purpose
                                                                                                                                                  in 2007
                                                                            Commuters
                                                                                                       15%
                                                                            Business trips                                                        Source: PwC analysis
                                                                            Private/shopping
                                                                            Education
                                                                            Leisure time                                33%




An average working day was used for the purpose of analysing hourly traffic volumes.
This traffic volume analysis was taken as a basis for analysing battery charging and,
consequently, the effects thereof in relation to the average daily use of electricity.
Figure 2 shows hourly traffic volumes according to the individual travel purposes.

                        35%                                                                                                                       Figure 2:
                                                                                                                                                  24 hour traffic volume profile
                        30%                                                                                                                       according to individual travel
                                                                                                                        Commuters
                                                                                                                                                  purposes
                                                                                                                        Business trips
                        25%
                                                                                                                        Private/shopping
                                                                                                                                                  Source: Herry Consult
 Kilometres travelled




                                                                                                                        Education
                        20%                                                                                             Leisure time

                        15%


                        10%


                        5%


                          0
                              1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14     15   16   17    18   19    20    21   22   23   24
                                                                              Time




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                                                                         7
The figure below shows the traffic volume profile for all category types. It illustrates
                               a distinctive peak at eight o’clock in the morning. This is mainly caused by rush hour
                               commuter traffic. A further peak can be seen at six o’clock in the evening, at which
                               time both commuter and leisure traffic come together. There is an additional peak at
                               1pm, which is also caused by commuter traffic.

Figure 3:                                                                    6.000
                                                                                                                                                                      Commuters
Cumulative 24 hour traffic                                                                                                                                            Business trips
volume profile
                             Overall number of km travelled (in thousands)




                                                                             5.000                                                                                    Private/shopping
                                                                                                                                                                      Education
Source: Herry Consult                                                                                                                                                 Leisure time
                                                                             4.000                                                                                    Light duty vehicles
                                                                                                                                                                      Two-wheeled vehicles
                                                                             3.000



                                                                             2.000



                                                                             1.000



                                                                                0
                                                                                     1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21    22   23   24
                                                                                                                                    Time




                               3                                               Electric vehicles

                               The present study is based on the assumption that purely electric vehicles (vehicles
                               running on batteries only) were to be examined. It did not take alternative engine
                               concepts such as hybrid or fuel cell vehicles into consideration. On the basis of data
                               collected by PwC, the following key parameters were defined:

                               Passenger cars:
                               • Average range: 200 km
                               • Battery charging capacity: 30 kWh

                               Light duty vehicles:
                               • Average range: 250 km
                               • Battery charging capacity: 50 kWh

                               Two-wheeled vehicles:
                               • Average range: 80 km
                               • Battery charging capacity: 4 kWh




                                                                                                                                                                                Klima- und Energiefonds
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4     Energy industry

From an energy industry perspective, the following key factors are of significance:

• It is important to determine the amounts that are required for the charging of batteries.
• It is important to ensure adequate power transmission and transmission capacities.

With regard to electricity generation, it is important to establish how electricity con-
sumption will develop in the future and which other potential forms of electricity
generation, be they hydropower, fossil fuel power plants or renewable energy sources,
can be implemented in the future. Battery charging levels required can be calculated
on the basis of the number of electric vehicles on the market as well as on the basis
of traffic volume. Batteries will be charged via the public power grid. As energy is lost
during the charging process, there will be less electricity in the battery compared to
the amount that has been charged from the power grid. Analyses based on charg-
ing stations available on the market have shown that the loss factor for an average
battery charging station is 20%. This loss factor was taken into consideration in the
calculations which are set out below.

The table below shows the required battery charging amounts that would have to be
provided by the energy industry. Assuming an increase in electricity consumption of
2% per year, the said battery charging amounts can be taken to illustrate the respec-
tive shares in electricity consumption in 2020 (3.0%) and 2030 (2.6%).

 Battery capacities 20% coverage                                                              Table 3:
                                                     2020        2030                         Battery charging amounts
                                                                                              for 2020 and 2030
 Passenger cars                             GWh      2,400      2,478                         (20% coverage)
 Light duty vehicles                        GWh       224         232
                                                                                              Source: PwC analysis
 Two-wheeled vehicles                       GWh        25          25

 Total electric vehicles                    GWh      2,649      2,736
 Share in electricity consumption (+2.0%)             3.0%        2.6%




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                   9
In order to study the effects on daily electricity generation, load profiles (which show
                                electricity consumption over a 24 hour period) based on data provided by E-Control were
                                drawn up for a typical summer day and a typical winter day and taken as reference points.

                                Average electricity consumption in summer is characterised by relatively little electric-
                                ity consumption at night, with electricity consumption being at its peak at midday,
                                after which point it continuously falls until picking up again at around six o’clock in the
                                morning. Electricity consumption in the winter months, on the other hand, is charac-
                                terised by considerable peaks at midday and in the evening, with electricity consump-
                                tion levels falling only to a minor extent over the course of the afternoon.

Figure 4:                                     Typical electricity consumption in summer                           Typical electricity consumption in winter
                                              (Daily load profile)                                                 (Daily load profile)
Typical electricity                  10,000                                                              10,000
consumption over the course
of the day (load profile) for         9,000                                                               9,000
summer and winter                     8,000                                                               8,000

                                      7,000                                                               7,000
Source: E-Control
                                      6,000                                                               6,000
                                MW




                                                                                                    MW




                                      5,000                                                               5,000

                                      4,000                                                               4,000

                                      3,000                                                               3,000

                                      2,000                                                               2,000

                                      1,000                                                               1,000

                                         0                                                                   0
                                              1           6             12                18   24                 1            6              12              18          24
                                                                       Time                                                                  Time


                                Batteries used in electric vehicles can be charged using conventional household
                                plugs, requiring an average charging time of seven hours. The charging time can be
                                reduced to a minimum of 30 minutes where specific charging points are available.
                                For the study at hand the assumption was made that the average time required for
                                recharging completely empty batteries would be seven hours.

                                The level of electricity consumption required for the charging of batteries was added
                                to daily electricity consumption. For the purpose of this analysis the general assump-




                                                                                                                                                      Klima- und Energiefonds
10                                                                                                                                                    PricewaterhouseCoopers
tion was made that every vehicle would be charged in the evening and overnight, and
that during the day an electric vehicle would only be taken to a charging station if its
batteries were completely empty.

The figures below shows the total load curves over the course of one day. The load
curves show that based on the average daily number of kilometres travelled, it would
be possible to charge batteries overnight, thereby ensuring that the electric vehicle
would be fully charged and ready in the morning.
     1,200                                                                           Charging commuters                       Figure 5:
                                                                                     Charging business trip                   Total load curve over one day
                                                                                     Charging private/shopping                (24 hours) (20% coverage)
     1,000
                                                                                     Charging education
                                                                                     Charging leisure time
      800
                                                                                     Charging light duty vehicles
                                                                                     Charging two-wheeled vehicles
MW




      600



      400



      200



         0
             1   2    3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22    23   24
                                                             Time



These load curves are now added to the electricity consumption profile (load profile)
through which a total daily electricity consumption amount can be deduced (total load
profile). A total load profile is shown below on the basis of 20% coverage and the
additional electricity requirements brought about through the charging of batteries.
Electricity consumption levels are set on the basis of an average summer day in 2020.
A further observation that can be made is that the additional amounts of current
during the night do not exceed the daytime peak amounts. Data are shown in hourly
grids, meaning that performance data can be shown on an hourly basis. The power
grid would ultimately have to be structured in such a way as to be able to cope with
the delivery of electricity when peak demand occurs, and it can be clearly seen from
above that the power grid would not have to be further upgraded and strengthened
due to this additional delivery of electricity. A further positive effect which results from




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                                                   11
this is that electricity consumption would be raised during the night, meaning that
                                 power stations would be operated on a more constant level, which in turn would lead
                                 to greater economic efficiency.

Figure 6:                             12,000
Overall electricity consumpti-
on incl. potential energy
                                      10,000
for a typical summer day
(20% coverage, 2% electricity
consumption increase)                  8,000                                                                Charging two-wheeled vehicles
                                                                                                            Charging light duty vehicles
                                 MW




Source: PwC analysis                   6,000                                                                Charging leisure time
                                                                                                            Charging education
                                       4,000                                                                Charging private/shopping
                                                                                                            Charging business trip

                                       2,000
                                                                                                            Charging commuters
                                                                                                            Load profile

                                          0
                                               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20    21   22   23   24
                                                                                              Time




Figure 7:                             12,000
Overall electricity consumpti-
on incl. potential energy
                                      10,000
for a typical winter day
(20% coverage, 2% electricity
                                                                                                            Charging two-wheeled vehicles
consumption increase)                  8,000
                                                                                                            Charging light duty vehicles
                                                                                                            Charging leisure time
                                 MW




Source: PwC analysis                   6,000
                                                                                                            Charging education
                                                                                                            Charging private/shopping
                                       4,000
                                                                                                            Charging business trip
                                                                                                            Charging commuters
                                       2,000                                                                Load profile


                                          0
                                               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20    21   22   23   24
                                                                                              Time




                                                                                                                                          Klima- und Energiefonds
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5     Contribution of electric vehicles to energy industry (VG2 concept)

When electric vehicles are not needed, the electricity saved from the batteries could
be resupplied to the power grid. The concept of resupplying electricity taken from
electric vehicles to the power grid is known as the ‘V2G’ or ‘Vehicle to Grid’ concept.

                                                                                                       Figure 8:
Electricity production                             Conventional
through renewable                                  energy production
                                                                                                       V2G concept
energy sources


                                                     Charging
                                                      station                      Electric vehicles
                                                                                       (battery)
                                                                Battery charging




                                                                Resupply to the
       Consumer                                                   power grid

This could be of particular interest to vehicle owners who only need their vehicles at
particular given times (commuters for example) and who would be able to trade the bat-
tery capacities not required in return for remuneration, provided that electricity prices are
reasonable. This means that a number of electric vehicles connected to the power grid
would be able to compensate for the power generation through wind or photovoltaics1.                   1 Electric vehicles would thus be
                                                                                                       able to have an impact on the overall
                                                                                                       balancing of the energy market in
A crucial issue for the energy industry is the determination of which share of battery                 that they could, on the one hand,
capacities would be available on a secured delivery basis. Secured delivery is defined                 resupply electricity and, on the other
as 24 hour availability (i.e. continuous supply).                                                      hand, consume additional electricity
                                                                                                       when short term excess amounts
                                                                                                       become available (for example
Taking as a basis average traffic volumes, calculations show that 82% of battery                       when there is increased electricity
capacities are not required during the day (vehicles are not used) and could thus be                   production through wind farms).
used to resupply electricity to the public power grid. A further 7% of battery capaci-
ties are used intermittently throughout the course of the day and could also be used
to resupply electricity to the public power grid. Approx. 11% of battery capacities are
used daily for journeys as well as for recharging.




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                                     13
Figure 9:                          100%
Distrubution of daily battery                                     7%                                             11% for driving and charging
levels required for ‘travelling’                  can be resupplied to the power grid
and ‘charging’ as well as
                                    75%
possible resupply of non-
used battery capacities

                                                                                             82%
Source: PwC analysis                50%
                                                                            available as secure electricity storage
                                                                                      on a 24 hour basis


                                    25%




                                      0
                                          1   2   3   4    5   6    7   8     9   10    11   12   13   14   15    16   17   18   19   20   21     22   23    24
                                                                                              Time




                                   The table below presents the possible amounts of energy which could be resupplied
                                   to the power grid at times when electric vehicles are not being used. Assuming 20%
                                   coverage, this would mean a (secure) resupply of approx. 16 TWh of electricity to
                                   the power grid, amounting to some 17% of total electricity consumption. Assuming
                                   that 5-8% of electricity consumption (balance energy) is required for compensation
                                   energy, 20% coverage would contribute significantly to this percentage. This estimate
                                   is based on the assumption that all batteries need to be recharged. Since the exist-
                                   ing electric vehicles would not all have their batteries charged at the same time, there
                                   would be a continuous charging process. If the total amount of battery capacities
                                   were used to resupply electricity to the power grid, the batteries would need to be
                                   recharged with the same amount of electricity.




                                                                                                                                                Klima- und Energiefonds
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In addition, electric vehicles would help ensure security of supply. Battery capacities
could instantly be made available and, should large scale power cuts occur, could be
used to resupply electricity.

The table below shows a possible resupply scenario of electricity taken from electric
vehicles to the power grid for one year on the basis of an average traffic volume. Tak-
ing an average annual 2% increase in electricity production into consideration, the
table also illustrates electricity consumption.

                Annual battery capacities            Possible               Secure         Table 4:
                    20% coverage                  power grid supply     supply amounts     Resupply of battery
                                                                                           capacities to the public
                                                   2020        2030     2020       2030
                                                                                           power grid
 Passenger cars                             GWh   15,382     15,887    14,210    14,677
                                                                                           Source: PwC analysis
 Light duty vehicles                        GWh    1,439      1,486     1,329     1,373
 Two-wheeled vehicles                       GWh     158         163      146        151

 Total                                      GWh   16,979     17,536    15,686    16,200
 Share in electricity consumption (+2.0%)           19.3%      16.4%     17.9%     15.1%




A precondition for the resupply of energy would be the installation of a nationwide
smart metering system which would also enable what is referred to as ‘smart pricing’;
in other words the resupply of electricity on the basis of an appropriate level of remu-
neration. These meters would be installed within the charging stations. However, this
would also mean that distribution system operators would be required to increase the
capacity of electricity networks in order to ensure a greater level of data exchange.




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                15
6             CO2 emissions

                                           Electric vehicles have a higher degree of efficiency than vehicles with internal com-
                                           bustion engines, meaning that they are characterised by a lower average energy
2 Petrol and diesel in relation to cars;   consumption rate2. Electric vehicles thus contribute towards lower CO2 emissions. It
electricity consumption in relation to     is, however, evident that the charging of batteries and the electricity produced for this
electric vehicles
                                           purpose ultimately involves the production of further emissions.

Figure 10:                                              100
Average energy consumption
of conventional cars and
electric vehicle in kWh/km
                                                        75
                                                                         Conventional vehicle
Source: PwC analysis
                                           kWh/100 km




                                                        50




                                                        25



                                                                                                Electric vehicle
                                                         0




                                           In order to calculate CO2 levels, the specific emission factor (how many grams of
                                           CO2 emissions are produced for 1kWh of electricity) must be determined. The CO2
                                           calculations took the following factors into consideration:

                                           • Planned power plant expansions of the Austrian energy industry
                                           • Fulfilment of statutory standards regarding green electricity and renewable energy

                                           The calculations were based on the assumption that the current power plant plans
                                           as foreseen by the Austrian energy industry until 2018 will have been implemented.
                                           It was assumed that in the period from 2018 to 2030, renewable energy sources
                                           such as hydropower and wind power will have been fully exploited. It was assumed
                                           that additional electricity capacities would be imported where further capacities are
                                           required. A general observation that can be made is that the expansion plans of the




                                                                                                                     Klima- und Energiefonds
16                                                                                                                   PricewaterhouseCoopers
energy sector envisage a large number of fossil fuel power plants, as a consequence
of which the specific emission factor related to the production of a single kWh of
electricity will be have increased by 2018 compared to 2007 levels. Since the Green
Electricity Act in its current form envisages that 78% of electricity will be generated
through renewable energy sources by 2010, the assumption was made that the share
of green electricity would remain proportionally constant until 2030.                                                                                                                       3 This corresponds to imports which
                                                                                                                                                                                            are required for meeting domestic
Thus, a specific emission factor of 200 g/kWh was determined for the purpose of                                                                                                             demand for electricity. Overall electricity
                                                                                                                                                                                            imports for Austria in 2007 were
calculating CO2 emissions. This amount also takes into account an electricity import                                                                                                        above this percentage as a certain
share of up to 5% (corresponding to net amount3 of electricity imports in 2007).                                                                                                            amount was also exported.



                                      250                                                                                                                                                   Figure 11:
                                                                                                                                                                                            Specific emission factor of
                                      240                                                                                                                                                   electricity produced
                                                                                                                           Decrease brought about through
Specific CO2 emission factor (g/kWh)




                                                                                                                           increasing expansion of power                                    Source: PwC analysis partially based
                                      230
                                                                                                                           plants generating electricity through                            on VEÖ data
                                                                                                                           renewable resources
                                      220


                                      210
                                                                                Emission factor
                                                                                based on power plant
                                                                                expansion plans (VEÖ)
                                      200

                                                                                                                                  From 2020: Constant emission
                                      190
                                                                                                                                  assumption

                                      180
                                            ’07   ’08   ’09   ’10   ’11   ’12   ’13   ’14   ’15   ’16   ’17   ’18   ’19   ’20   ’21   ’22   ’23   ’24   ’25   ’26   ’27   ’28   ’29   ’30
                                                                                                                Year



The overall reduction made was determined based on these emission factors. Road
traffic emissions (caused by passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled
vehicles) which do not take electric vehicles into account are shown in the following
table4. Here it was assumed that by 2030 conventional vehicles will not have devel-                                                                                                         4 The CO2 emissions comparison
oped substantially in terms of efficiency. This development is due to the fact that                                                                                                         involving traffic here only takes into
                                                                                                                                                                                            consideration those CO2 emissions
engines will operate more efficiently while at the same becoming more powerful.                                                                                                             related to passenger cars, two-
                                                                                                                                                                                            wheeled vehicles and light duty
                                                                                                                                                                                            vehicles.




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                                                                                                                               17
Table 5:                                                                            CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions for
                                             without electric vehicles                              CO2   2020     2030
road traffic before and
after 20% coverage                           Two-wheeled vehicles                                    mt    0.19     0.19
                                             Light duty vehicles                                     mt    1.27     1.31
PwC analysis                                 Passanger vehicles                                      mt   11.14    11.51

                                             Total CO2 (without electric vehicles)                   mt   12.60    13.02

                                             with electric vehicles                                       20%      20%

                                             Two-wheeled vehicles                                    mt    0.15     0.15
                                             Light duty vehicles                                     mt    1.02     1.05
                                             Passanger vehicles                                      mt    8.91     9.20

                                             Total CO2 (with electric vehicles)                      mt   10.08    10.41

                                             Reduction due to changeover                             mt    2.52     2.60
                                             Battery charging                                        mt   (0.53)   (0.55)

                                             Total reduction                                         mt    1.99     2.06
                                             CO2 reduction with electric vehicles                           16%      16%




                                         CO2 emissions can be reduced as shown in the table above. The effect is that overall
                                         emissions can be reduced by 15% when taking into account the electricity amounts
                                         used for the purpose of battery charging when using an average electricity mix in Austria.


                                         7        Economic effects

5 In contrast to a cost-effectiveness    Economic effects were assessed in the form of a cost-benefit calculation5 and
analysis the aim here was to highlight   categorised as follows:
the effects in monetary terms.

                                         •     State – impact through tax deferrals
                                         •     Imports – impact through changes in oil imports
                                         •     Consumption – impact brought about through changes in electricity an oil consumtions
                                         •     Investments – impact through investments in networks and charging stations as
                                               well as reduced investment in generation




                                                                                                                            Klima- und Energiefonds
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The following areas were examined:

• Additional tax revenue – VAT and energy tax
• Reduced fuel sales – Following the introduction of electric vehicles, petroleum
  companies will be selling less petrol and diesel. However, the crude oil for these
  products will still have to be imported. Once electric vehicles have been introdu-
  ced, these import levels will be reduced, leading to higher levels of capital available
  for the national economy and therefore more capital for investments or consumpti-
  on. Tax and levies were already incorporated within these calculations.
• CO2 emissions – Savings achieved through CO2 emissions and CO2 abatement
  costs. Emissions (CO2 in t) were valued at market value.
• Surplus arising from additional electricity sales and additional power network
  usage – The assumption is made that the entire electricity required for charging
  electric vehicles will be acquired from the public power grid. Therefore private
  electricity supply (acquired through solar housing, for example) were not taken into
  consideration. It is therefore assumed that all power requirements will have to be
  met by the energy industry itself.
• Reduced expansion of storage power stations – The ability to resupply the power
  grid with battery capacities not being used makes a reduced expansion of storage
  power stations possible. The assumption is made that 25% of secured energy will
  be able to resupply electricity to the power grid, thereby serving as electricity pro-
  vider alternatives to power stations.
• Shortfalls in VAT revenue, shortfalls in fuel tax – These shortfalls are caused as a
  result of reduced demand for petrol and diesel, thereby affecting tax revenues. The
  assumption is made that the tax rate and tax base will remain unaffected-
• Expansion of battery charging stations – Necessary investments in battery char-
  ging stations; an average parameter was used. It was also assumed that home-
  based battery charging stations will involve the same investment costs as those
  situated at car parking spaces or petrol stations.

Duty payable on standard consumption (Normverbraucherausgabe) and motor vehicle
insurance tax were not taken into consideration as it was assumed that once a signifi-
cant number of electric vehicles would have come onto the market these would also
be subject to duty payable on standard consumption and motor vehicle insurance tax
and consequently would be tax neutral.

The effect on employment was not taken into consideration. While distribution grid
improvements and more work caused by data processing will lead to a positive effect
on the future energy job market, this will in turn have a negative impact on jobs in the
crude oil sector as refinery capacities are reduced. This development would have a
neutral impact on petrol stations as large heavy goods vehicles will continue to be
reliable sources of income and, at the same time, petrol stations will also be able to
offer electrical energy (in the form of charging adapters or charging stations)




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                      19
Table 6:                   Cost benefit analysis                                    20% coverage
Overall economic impact    Extra earnings in EURk                                   2020          2030
                           Extra tax earnings                                    95,352         118,720
                           reduced oil imports                                  739,158       1,007,499
                           CO2 reduction                                         73,651         132,826

                           Total state/imports                                  908,161       1,259,045
                           Electricity consumption                               349,527        427,280
                           Reduced investments in power plants                 1,053,597      1,088,155

                           Total investments/consumption                       1,403,124      1,515,435
                           Total national extra earnings                       2,311,285      2,774,480

                           Shortfalls in EURk                                       2020          2030
                           Shortfalls – VAT on fuel                             272,335        371,203
                           Shortfalls fuel duty                                 622,519        848,516

                           Total state/imports                                  894,854       1,219,719
                           Increased investment in battery charging stations    111,000        111,000
                           Total investments/consumption                        111,000        111,000
                           Total national shortfalls                           1,005,854      1,330,719

                           Overall economic impact                             1,305,430      1,443,762
                           Share tax and duty                                        13,307        39,326
                           Share consumption/investments                          1,292,124     1,404,435



                          The above table shows a considerable number of tax deferrals, reduced oil import depend-
                          ency and, as a consequence, a reduction in capital which remains in Austria as well as sig-
                          nificant extra earnings through additional electricity sales. The ability to resupply electricity
                          with battery capacities not being used (through parked electric vehicles) would also result
                          in a reduced need to expand power stations, thereby leading to reduced investment.

                          The overall economic impact generally paints a positive picture, with the effect on the
                          national budget being largely neutral (slightly negative in 2020 and slightly positive in
                          2030). The most positive effect will be felt by energy suppliers, which will hugely ben-
                          efit through a positive net effect of up to around EUR 1.3bn.




                                                                                                            Klima- und Energiefonds
20                                                                                                          PricewaterhouseCoopers
8     Possible contribution towards meeting energy efficiency targets

The EU Directive 2006/32/EC (Energy Service Directive – ESD) envisages a 9% in-
crease in energy efficiency as an interim target by 31 December 2016 and an overall
20% reduction in primary energy carriers by 2020. For Austria, such a target would
imply a demonstrable energy reduction of 80,400 TJ (22,333 GWh) compared to a
reference scenario. The reduction level was determined as part of a national allocation
plan for energy efficiency (source: EEAP, BMWA, 2007).

The following table shows the results of the study into the possible contribution that
electric vehicles could make towards achieving energy efficiency targets:

                                                          20%                             Table 7:
                                                                                          Contribution of electric
Petrol and Diesel usage (GWh)                     2020           2030                     vehicles towards achieving
                                                                                          energy efficiency targets
Petrol cars                                       4,882          5,042
Diesel cars                                       5,272          5,445                    Source: PwC analysis
Two-wheeled vehicles                                181            187
Light duty vehicles                                 688            710

Total                                            11,023         11,384


                                                          20%
Charging energy for electric vehicles (GWh)        20%           20%

Cars                                              2,400          2,478
Light duty vehicles                                 224            232
Two-wheeled vehicles                                 25             25

Total electric cars                               2,649          2,736

Reduction/Saving                                  8,374          8,649
Targets                                            37%           39%


The results show that on the basis of 20% coverage (amounting to approx. 1 million
vehicles), the contribution that can be made in terms of meeting energy efficiency
targets amounts to 37% or 8.4 TWh of the 22.3 TWh target. This would be capable of
having a net effect on the economy of up to approx. EUR 1.3 billion.




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                                                                                 21
Your contacts at PricewaterhouseCoopers




Your contacts for the survey

Bernhard Haider                Erwin Smole
Partner                        Director
Tel. +43 1 501 88 2900         Tel. +43 1 501 88 2928
bernhard.haider@at.pwc.com     erwin.smole@at.pwc.com




Klima- und Energiefonds
PricewaterhouseCoopers                                  22
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Electricvehicles austrianclimateresearch

  • 1. The impact of electric vehicles on the energy industry This study is part of the Austrian Climate Research Programme
  • 2.
  • 3. Table of Contents Summary 4 1 Results 4 2 Analysis of the traffic industry 5 3 Electric vehicles 8 4 Energy industry 9 5 Contribution of electric vehicles to energy industry (VG2 concept) 13 6 CO2 emissions 16 7 Economic effects 18 8 Possible contribution towards meeting energy efficiency targets 21
  • 4. Summary The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of the impact that electric vehicles would have on the Austrian energy industry. The assumption that was made for this study is that purely electric vehicles were to be examined, meaning vehicles running on batteries without combustion engines. Taking as a basis data from 2007, the study examines the nature of the impact in the years 2020 and 2030. The underlying as- sumption of the study is that electric vehicles will make up 20% of the total number of passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles existing on the market (hereinafter referred to as “20% coverage”) where all registered vehicles are the data basis. Based on a traffic impact analysis, the following issues were examined in this study: • Impact on electricity generation through the charging of electric vehicles • Impact on the public power grid • Changes to the Austrian carbon footprint • Economic analysis including a cost-benefit calculation 1 Results • 20% coverage (approx. 1 million electric vehicles) would lead to an increase in power consumption of approx. 3% and would not require the construction of further power plants. • An electricity consumption analysis over the course of an average day has shown that the power grid infrastructure currently in place provides sufficient capacity; ad- aptations to the distribution networks would be only required with regard to charging points. This means that 20% coverage would not require network reinforcements. • Introducing electric vehicles to the Austrian market would require the installation of approx. 16,200 electric vehicle charging points. Should, however, electric vehicles be mainly introduced in cities, approx. 2,800 charging points would need to be installed. These installations plus network connections would require investments amounting to EUR 111m and EUR 650m, respectively. • Assuming an electricity capacity mix corresponding to the amount of electricity gener- ated as of today, car emissions would be reduced to 40 g/km. This would amount to a reduction of two thirds as compared to the emissions caused by conventional vehicles. Klima- und Energiefonds 4 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 5. • The carbon footprint (total carbon emissions produced in Austria) could be re- duced by 2 metric tons of CO2, which would mean a 16% reduction in carbon emissions caused by passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles (this figure is based on an electricity generation mix corresponding to the electricity generated as of today). • With regard to the national economy, the introduction of electric vehicles would result in a positive net effect of approx. EUR 1.3bn. While this effect would have a more or less neutral impact on the national budget, it would be highly advanta- geous for investments, resulting in a positive net effect of EUR 1bn (which is ap- prox. 10% of the total industry volume as of today). • In total, electric vehicles have a higher degree of efficiency than conventional vehi- cles. 20% coverage would lead to an energy reduction of approx. 8.4 TWh, which would be approx. 37% of the energy efficiency target set for 2016. 2 Analysis of the traffic industry Based on the data and information available, vehicles were grouped into the following categories: • Passenger cars • Two-wheeled vehicles (motorbikes, small mopeds, mopeds) • Light duty vehicles The calculations were based on the assumption that the average distances travelled (in kilometres) for each vehicle category remain constant. This assumption can be explained by the fact that statutory regulations are very likely to cause a pro-rata shift towards public transport, thereby compensating for the rising number in vehicles. Average number of kilometres travelled per year Table 1: Number of kilometres Passenger cars 15,000 km travelled per trip purpose, 2007 Light duty vehicles 15,000 km Two-wheeled vehicles 4,500 km Source: PwC analysis Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 5
  • 6. The average number of kilometres travelled per year served as a basis for determining the number of vehicles and kilometres travelled in 2020. These calculations have shown that 91% of all kilometres are travelled passenger cars (both for business and private pur- poses). 6% of all kilometres are travelled by light duty vehicles and 3% by two-wheeled vehicles. The results for the years 2007, 2020 and 2030 are shown in the table below: Table 2: Volume of vehicles and kilometres travelled 2007 2020 2030 Number of vehicles and kilometres travelled in 2007 Passanger vehicles Volume 4,245,583 4,443,826 4,589,583 and 2020 km (in billions)/year 63.68 66.66 68.84 Two-wheeled vehicles Volume 435,905 456,259 471,224 Source: Statistik Austria, km (in billions)/year 1.96 2.05 2.12 PwC analysis Light duty vehicles Volume 297,888 311,798 322,024 km (in billions)/year 4.47 4.68 4.83 Total Volume 4,979,376 5,211,882 5,382,831 km (in billions)/year 70.1 73.4 75.8 Total 20% coverage Volume 995,875 1,042,376 1,076,566 (electric vehicles) km (in billions)/year 14.0 14.7 15.2 Furthermore, each individual vehicle category was studied for the following travel purposes: • Commuters – daily travel to and from work • Business trips – work related journeys • Private/shopping – private shopping trips • Education – daily trips to and from learning institutions, schools, etc. • Leisure time – daily trips related to sporting activities, visits, etc. Klima- und Energiefonds 6 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 7. The chart below shows the overall kilometre allocation in relation to the different travel purposes. 4% Figure 1: 15% Number of kilometres 33% covered per travel purpose in 2007 Commuters 15% Business trips Source: PwC analysis Private/shopping Education Leisure time 33% An average working day was used for the purpose of analysing hourly traffic volumes. This traffic volume analysis was taken as a basis for analysing battery charging and, consequently, the effects thereof in relation to the average daily use of electricity. Figure 2 shows hourly traffic volumes according to the individual travel purposes. 35% Figure 2: 24 hour traffic volume profile 30% according to individual travel Commuters purposes Business trips 25% Private/shopping Source: Herry Consult Kilometres travelled Education 20% Leisure time 15% 10% 5% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 7
  • 8. The figure below shows the traffic volume profile for all category types. It illustrates a distinctive peak at eight o’clock in the morning. This is mainly caused by rush hour commuter traffic. A further peak can be seen at six o’clock in the evening, at which time both commuter and leisure traffic come together. There is an additional peak at 1pm, which is also caused by commuter traffic. Figure 3: 6.000 Commuters Cumulative 24 hour traffic Business trips volume profile Overall number of km travelled (in thousands) 5.000 Private/shopping Education Source: Herry Consult Leisure time 4.000 Light duty vehicles Two-wheeled vehicles 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time 3 Electric vehicles The present study is based on the assumption that purely electric vehicles (vehicles running on batteries only) were to be examined. It did not take alternative engine concepts such as hybrid or fuel cell vehicles into consideration. On the basis of data collected by PwC, the following key parameters were defined: Passenger cars: • Average range: 200 km • Battery charging capacity: 30 kWh Light duty vehicles: • Average range: 250 km • Battery charging capacity: 50 kWh Two-wheeled vehicles: • Average range: 80 km • Battery charging capacity: 4 kWh Klima- und Energiefonds 8 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 9. 4 Energy industry From an energy industry perspective, the following key factors are of significance: • It is important to determine the amounts that are required for the charging of batteries. • It is important to ensure adequate power transmission and transmission capacities. With regard to electricity generation, it is important to establish how electricity con- sumption will develop in the future and which other potential forms of electricity generation, be they hydropower, fossil fuel power plants or renewable energy sources, can be implemented in the future. Battery charging levels required can be calculated on the basis of the number of electric vehicles on the market as well as on the basis of traffic volume. Batteries will be charged via the public power grid. As energy is lost during the charging process, there will be less electricity in the battery compared to the amount that has been charged from the power grid. Analyses based on charg- ing stations available on the market have shown that the loss factor for an average battery charging station is 20%. This loss factor was taken into consideration in the calculations which are set out below. The table below shows the required battery charging amounts that would have to be provided by the energy industry. Assuming an increase in electricity consumption of 2% per year, the said battery charging amounts can be taken to illustrate the respec- tive shares in electricity consumption in 2020 (3.0%) and 2030 (2.6%). Battery capacities 20% coverage Table 3: 2020 2030 Battery charging amounts for 2020 and 2030 Passenger cars GWh 2,400 2,478 (20% coverage) Light duty vehicles GWh 224 232 Source: PwC analysis Two-wheeled vehicles GWh 25 25 Total electric vehicles GWh 2,649 2,736 Share in electricity consumption (+2.0%) 3.0% 2.6% Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 9
  • 10. In order to study the effects on daily electricity generation, load profiles (which show electricity consumption over a 24 hour period) based on data provided by E-Control were drawn up for a typical summer day and a typical winter day and taken as reference points. Average electricity consumption in summer is characterised by relatively little electric- ity consumption at night, with electricity consumption being at its peak at midday, after which point it continuously falls until picking up again at around six o’clock in the morning. Electricity consumption in the winter months, on the other hand, is charac- terised by considerable peaks at midday and in the evening, with electricity consump- tion levels falling only to a minor extent over the course of the afternoon. Figure 4: Typical electricity consumption in summer Typical electricity consumption in winter (Daily load profile) (Daily load profile) Typical electricity 10,000 10,000 consumption over the course of the day (load profile) for 9,000 9,000 summer and winter 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 Source: E-Control 6,000 6,000 MW MW 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 1 6 12 18 24 1 6 12 18 24 Time Time Batteries used in electric vehicles can be charged using conventional household plugs, requiring an average charging time of seven hours. The charging time can be reduced to a minimum of 30 minutes where specific charging points are available. For the study at hand the assumption was made that the average time required for recharging completely empty batteries would be seven hours. The level of electricity consumption required for the charging of batteries was added to daily electricity consumption. For the purpose of this analysis the general assump- Klima- und Energiefonds 10 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 11. tion was made that every vehicle would be charged in the evening and overnight, and that during the day an electric vehicle would only be taken to a charging station if its batteries were completely empty. The figures below shows the total load curves over the course of one day. The load curves show that based on the average daily number of kilometres travelled, it would be possible to charge batteries overnight, thereby ensuring that the electric vehicle would be fully charged and ready in the morning. 1,200 Charging commuters Figure 5: Charging business trip Total load curve over one day Charging private/shopping (24 hours) (20% coverage) 1,000 Charging education Charging leisure time 800 Charging light duty vehicles Charging two-wheeled vehicles MW 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time These load curves are now added to the electricity consumption profile (load profile) through which a total daily electricity consumption amount can be deduced (total load profile). A total load profile is shown below on the basis of 20% coverage and the additional electricity requirements brought about through the charging of batteries. Electricity consumption levels are set on the basis of an average summer day in 2020. A further observation that can be made is that the additional amounts of current during the night do not exceed the daytime peak amounts. Data are shown in hourly grids, meaning that performance data can be shown on an hourly basis. The power grid would ultimately have to be structured in such a way as to be able to cope with the delivery of electricity when peak demand occurs, and it can be clearly seen from above that the power grid would not have to be further upgraded and strengthened due to this additional delivery of electricity. A further positive effect which results from Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 11
  • 12. this is that electricity consumption would be raised during the night, meaning that power stations would be operated on a more constant level, which in turn would lead to greater economic efficiency. Figure 6: 12,000 Overall electricity consumpti- on incl. potential energy 10,000 for a typical summer day (20% coverage, 2% electricity consumption increase) 8,000 Charging two-wheeled vehicles Charging light duty vehicles MW Source: PwC analysis 6,000 Charging leisure time Charging education 4,000 Charging private/shopping Charging business trip 2,000 Charging commuters Load profile 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time Figure 7: 12,000 Overall electricity consumpti- on incl. potential energy 10,000 for a typical winter day (20% coverage, 2% electricity Charging two-wheeled vehicles consumption increase) 8,000 Charging light duty vehicles Charging leisure time MW Source: PwC analysis 6,000 Charging education Charging private/shopping 4,000 Charging business trip Charging commuters 2,000 Load profile 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time Klima- und Energiefonds 12 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 13. 5 Contribution of electric vehicles to energy industry (VG2 concept) When electric vehicles are not needed, the electricity saved from the batteries could be resupplied to the power grid. The concept of resupplying electricity taken from electric vehicles to the power grid is known as the ‘V2G’ or ‘Vehicle to Grid’ concept. Figure 8: Electricity production Conventional through renewable energy production V2G concept energy sources Charging station Electric vehicles (battery) Battery charging Resupply to the Consumer power grid This could be of particular interest to vehicle owners who only need their vehicles at particular given times (commuters for example) and who would be able to trade the bat- tery capacities not required in return for remuneration, provided that electricity prices are reasonable. This means that a number of electric vehicles connected to the power grid would be able to compensate for the power generation through wind or photovoltaics1. 1 Electric vehicles would thus be able to have an impact on the overall balancing of the energy market in A crucial issue for the energy industry is the determination of which share of battery that they could, on the one hand, capacities would be available on a secured delivery basis. Secured delivery is defined resupply electricity and, on the other as 24 hour availability (i.e. continuous supply). hand, consume additional electricity when short term excess amounts become available (for example Taking as a basis average traffic volumes, calculations show that 82% of battery when there is increased electricity capacities are not required during the day (vehicles are not used) and could thus be production through wind farms). used to resupply electricity to the public power grid. A further 7% of battery capaci- ties are used intermittently throughout the course of the day and could also be used to resupply electricity to the public power grid. Approx. 11% of battery capacities are used daily for journeys as well as for recharging. Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 13
  • 14. Figure 9: 100% Distrubution of daily battery 7% 11% for driving and charging levels required for ‘travelling’ can be resupplied to the power grid and ‘charging’ as well as 75% possible resupply of non- used battery capacities 82% Source: PwC analysis 50% available as secure electricity storage on a 24 hour basis 25% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Time The table below presents the possible amounts of energy which could be resupplied to the power grid at times when electric vehicles are not being used. Assuming 20% coverage, this would mean a (secure) resupply of approx. 16 TWh of electricity to the power grid, amounting to some 17% of total electricity consumption. Assuming that 5-8% of electricity consumption (balance energy) is required for compensation energy, 20% coverage would contribute significantly to this percentage. This estimate is based on the assumption that all batteries need to be recharged. Since the exist- ing electric vehicles would not all have their batteries charged at the same time, there would be a continuous charging process. If the total amount of battery capacities were used to resupply electricity to the power grid, the batteries would need to be recharged with the same amount of electricity. Klima- und Energiefonds 14 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 15. In addition, electric vehicles would help ensure security of supply. Battery capacities could instantly be made available and, should large scale power cuts occur, could be used to resupply electricity. The table below shows a possible resupply scenario of electricity taken from electric vehicles to the power grid for one year on the basis of an average traffic volume. Tak- ing an average annual 2% increase in electricity production into consideration, the table also illustrates electricity consumption. Annual battery capacities Possible Secure Table 4: 20% coverage power grid supply supply amounts Resupply of battery capacities to the public 2020 2030 2020 2030 power grid Passenger cars GWh 15,382 15,887 14,210 14,677 Source: PwC analysis Light duty vehicles GWh 1,439 1,486 1,329 1,373 Two-wheeled vehicles GWh 158 163 146 151 Total GWh 16,979 17,536 15,686 16,200 Share in electricity consumption (+2.0%) 19.3% 16.4% 17.9% 15.1% A precondition for the resupply of energy would be the installation of a nationwide smart metering system which would also enable what is referred to as ‘smart pricing’; in other words the resupply of electricity on the basis of an appropriate level of remu- neration. These meters would be installed within the charging stations. However, this would also mean that distribution system operators would be required to increase the capacity of electricity networks in order to ensure a greater level of data exchange. Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 15
  • 16. 6 CO2 emissions Electric vehicles have a higher degree of efficiency than vehicles with internal com- bustion engines, meaning that they are characterised by a lower average energy 2 Petrol and diesel in relation to cars; consumption rate2. Electric vehicles thus contribute towards lower CO2 emissions. It electricity consumption in relation to is, however, evident that the charging of batteries and the electricity produced for this electric vehicles purpose ultimately involves the production of further emissions. Figure 10: 100 Average energy consumption of conventional cars and electric vehicle in kWh/km 75 Conventional vehicle Source: PwC analysis kWh/100 km 50 25 Electric vehicle 0 In order to calculate CO2 levels, the specific emission factor (how many grams of CO2 emissions are produced for 1kWh of electricity) must be determined. The CO2 calculations took the following factors into consideration: • Planned power plant expansions of the Austrian energy industry • Fulfilment of statutory standards regarding green electricity and renewable energy The calculations were based on the assumption that the current power plant plans as foreseen by the Austrian energy industry until 2018 will have been implemented. It was assumed that in the period from 2018 to 2030, renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power will have been fully exploited. It was assumed that additional electricity capacities would be imported where further capacities are required. A general observation that can be made is that the expansion plans of the Klima- und Energiefonds 16 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 17. energy sector envisage a large number of fossil fuel power plants, as a consequence of which the specific emission factor related to the production of a single kWh of electricity will be have increased by 2018 compared to 2007 levels. Since the Green Electricity Act in its current form envisages that 78% of electricity will be generated through renewable energy sources by 2010, the assumption was made that the share of green electricity would remain proportionally constant until 2030. 3 This corresponds to imports which are required for meeting domestic Thus, a specific emission factor of 200 g/kWh was determined for the purpose of demand for electricity. Overall electricity imports for Austria in 2007 were calculating CO2 emissions. This amount also takes into account an electricity import above this percentage as a certain share of up to 5% (corresponding to net amount3 of electricity imports in 2007). amount was also exported. 250 Figure 11: Specific emission factor of 240 electricity produced Decrease brought about through Specific CO2 emission factor (g/kWh) increasing expansion of power Source: PwC analysis partially based 230 plants generating electricity through on VEÖ data renewable resources 220 210 Emission factor based on power plant expansion plans (VEÖ) 200 From 2020: Constant emission 190 assumption 180 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 ’27 ’28 ’29 ’30 Year The overall reduction made was determined based on these emission factors. Road traffic emissions (caused by passenger cars, light duty vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles) which do not take electric vehicles into account are shown in the following table4. Here it was assumed that by 2030 conventional vehicles will not have devel- 4 The CO2 emissions comparison oped substantially in terms of efficiency. This development is due to the fact that involving traffic here only takes into consideration those CO2 emissions engines will operate more efficiently while at the same becoming more powerful. related to passenger cars, two- wheeled vehicles and light duty vehicles. Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 17
  • 18. Table 5: CO2 emissions CO2 emissions for without electric vehicles CO2 2020 2030 road traffic before and after 20% coverage Two-wheeled vehicles mt 0.19 0.19 Light duty vehicles mt 1.27 1.31 PwC analysis Passanger vehicles mt 11.14 11.51 Total CO2 (without electric vehicles) mt 12.60 13.02 with electric vehicles 20% 20% Two-wheeled vehicles mt 0.15 0.15 Light duty vehicles mt 1.02 1.05 Passanger vehicles mt 8.91 9.20 Total CO2 (with electric vehicles) mt 10.08 10.41 Reduction due to changeover mt 2.52 2.60 Battery charging mt (0.53) (0.55) Total reduction mt 1.99 2.06 CO2 reduction with electric vehicles 16% 16% CO2 emissions can be reduced as shown in the table above. The effect is that overall emissions can be reduced by 15% when taking into account the electricity amounts used for the purpose of battery charging when using an average electricity mix in Austria. 7 Economic effects 5 In contrast to a cost-effectiveness Economic effects were assessed in the form of a cost-benefit calculation5 and analysis the aim here was to highlight categorised as follows: the effects in monetary terms. • State – impact through tax deferrals • Imports – impact through changes in oil imports • Consumption – impact brought about through changes in electricity an oil consumtions • Investments – impact through investments in networks and charging stations as well as reduced investment in generation Klima- und Energiefonds 18 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 19. The following areas were examined: • Additional tax revenue – VAT and energy tax • Reduced fuel sales – Following the introduction of electric vehicles, petroleum companies will be selling less petrol and diesel. However, the crude oil for these products will still have to be imported. Once electric vehicles have been introdu- ced, these import levels will be reduced, leading to higher levels of capital available for the national economy and therefore more capital for investments or consumpti- on. Tax and levies were already incorporated within these calculations. • CO2 emissions – Savings achieved through CO2 emissions and CO2 abatement costs. Emissions (CO2 in t) were valued at market value. • Surplus arising from additional electricity sales and additional power network usage – The assumption is made that the entire electricity required for charging electric vehicles will be acquired from the public power grid. Therefore private electricity supply (acquired through solar housing, for example) were not taken into consideration. It is therefore assumed that all power requirements will have to be met by the energy industry itself. • Reduced expansion of storage power stations – The ability to resupply the power grid with battery capacities not being used makes a reduced expansion of storage power stations possible. The assumption is made that 25% of secured energy will be able to resupply electricity to the power grid, thereby serving as electricity pro- vider alternatives to power stations. • Shortfalls in VAT revenue, shortfalls in fuel tax – These shortfalls are caused as a result of reduced demand for petrol and diesel, thereby affecting tax revenues. The assumption is made that the tax rate and tax base will remain unaffected- • Expansion of battery charging stations – Necessary investments in battery char- ging stations; an average parameter was used. It was also assumed that home- based battery charging stations will involve the same investment costs as those situated at car parking spaces or petrol stations. Duty payable on standard consumption (Normverbraucherausgabe) and motor vehicle insurance tax were not taken into consideration as it was assumed that once a signifi- cant number of electric vehicles would have come onto the market these would also be subject to duty payable on standard consumption and motor vehicle insurance tax and consequently would be tax neutral. The effect on employment was not taken into consideration. While distribution grid improvements and more work caused by data processing will lead to a positive effect on the future energy job market, this will in turn have a negative impact on jobs in the crude oil sector as refinery capacities are reduced. This development would have a neutral impact on petrol stations as large heavy goods vehicles will continue to be reliable sources of income and, at the same time, petrol stations will also be able to offer electrical energy (in the form of charging adapters or charging stations) Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 19
  • 20. Table 6: Cost benefit analysis 20% coverage Overall economic impact Extra earnings in EURk 2020 2030 Extra tax earnings 95,352 118,720 reduced oil imports 739,158 1,007,499 CO2 reduction 73,651 132,826 Total state/imports 908,161 1,259,045 Electricity consumption 349,527 427,280 Reduced investments in power plants 1,053,597 1,088,155 Total investments/consumption 1,403,124 1,515,435 Total national extra earnings 2,311,285 2,774,480 Shortfalls in EURk 2020 2030 Shortfalls – VAT on fuel 272,335 371,203 Shortfalls fuel duty 622,519 848,516 Total state/imports 894,854 1,219,719 Increased investment in battery charging stations 111,000 111,000 Total investments/consumption 111,000 111,000 Total national shortfalls 1,005,854 1,330,719 Overall economic impact 1,305,430 1,443,762 Share tax and duty 13,307 39,326 Share consumption/investments 1,292,124 1,404,435 The above table shows a considerable number of tax deferrals, reduced oil import depend- ency and, as a consequence, a reduction in capital which remains in Austria as well as sig- nificant extra earnings through additional electricity sales. The ability to resupply electricity with battery capacities not being used (through parked electric vehicles) would also result in a reduced need to expand power stations, thereby leading to reduced investment. The overall economic impact generally paints a positive picture, with the effect on the national budget being largely neutral (slightly negative in 2020 and slightly positive in 2030). The most positive effect will be felt by energy suppliers, which will hugely ben- efit through a positive net effect of up to around EUR 1.3bn. Klima- und Energiefonds 20 PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • 21. 8 Possible contribution towards meeting energy efficiency targets The EU Directive 2006/32/EC (Energy Service Directive – ESD) envisages a 9% in- crease in energy efficiency as an interim target by 31 December 2016 and an overall 20% reduction in primary energy carriers by 2020. For Austria, such a target would imply a demonstrable energy reduction of 80,400 TJ (22,333 GWh) compared to a reference scenario. The reduction level was determined as part of a national allocation plan for energy efficiency (source: EEAP, BMWA, 2007). The following table shows the results of the study into the possible contribution that electric vehicles could make towards achieving energy efficiency targets: 20% Table 7: Contribution of electric Petrol and Diesel usage (GWh) 2020 2030 vehicles towards achieving energy efficiency targets Petrol cars 4,882 5,042 Diesel cars 5,272 5,445 Source: PwC analysis Two-wheeled vehicles 181 187 Light duty vehicles 688 710 Total 11,023 11,384 20% Charging energy for electric vehicles (GWh) 20% 20% Cars 2,400 2,478 Light duty vehicles 224 232 Two-wheeled vehicles 25 25 Total electric cars 2,649 2,736 Reduction/Saving 8,374 8,649 Targets 37% 39% The results show that on the basis of 20% coverage (amounting to approx. 1 million vehicles), the contribution that can be made in terms of meeting energy efficiency targets amounts to 37% or 8.4 TWh of the 22.3 TWh target. This would be capable of having a net effect on the economy of up to approx. EUR 1.3 billion. Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 21
  • 22. Your contacts at PricewaterhouseCoopers Your contacts for the survey Bernhard Haider Erwin Smole Partner Director Tel. +43 1 501 88 2900 Tel. +43 1 501 88 2928 bernhard.haider@at.pwc.com erwin.smole@at.pwc.com Klima- und Energiefonds PricewaterhouseCoopers 22
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