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Philippines Autos Report Q3 2010
Published on July 2010
Report Summary
Just how keen Philippines is on becoming a major force in the ASEAN auto sector is evident from the fact that the country's Board of
Investment (BoI) has now established a committee to address the excise tax changes needed to support the industry. While we
currently have a positive outlook for the industry in terms of both sales and production growth over the next five years, we believe that
encouraging more investment in domestic production by supporting the supplier segment and fostering the growth of popular vehicles
such as Asian Utility Vehicles (AUVs) through an improved tax structure, could prompt further upward revisions to our forecasts.
While the Philippines economy is rebounding reasonably well ' GDP growth expected at 4.4% year-onyear (y-o-y), export markets are
unlikely to cope so well. As such, although our core scenario envisions beginning of a recovery in production and exports from 2010,
we remain cautious of any robust growth this year. We are currently forecasting production to grow by a nearly 8% y-o-y, mainly as
exports pick up a growth of 11% y-o-y during 2010. However, risks to our production forecast for 2010 are tilted to the downside, in
the event that the global economic downturn persists through that year.
From the point of view of demand, BMI sees the strong 37.4% y-o-y increase in new vehicles sales, to 52,963 units in the first four
months of this year, as a sign of improved consumer and businesses confidence. Although we expect the entrance of new players to
the Philippines market to make for an interesting year, the overall market's performance this year could be impacted by the new Motor
Vehicle Development Program (MVDP) ' which could require vehicle assemblers to invest in local parts production in order to qualify
for tax incentives. As such, we limit our sales growth forecast to just over 11% y-o-y, to 147,550 units, by the end of this year.
Thereafter, we expect vehicle demand to follow the overall economic growth in the country, reaching nearly 201,600 units by the end
of 2014.
The Philippines is one of the smallest of the ASEAN markets in output terms and one factor in this is a need to develop the local
supplier network. However, Philippines' request to retain tariffs on parts especially could have negative implications for the industry's
development, if Japanese companies refuse to invest further in local operations. This is largely due to the large Japanese presence in
the local industry.
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) led the market last year, achieving record sales on the back of its bestselling models. Although the
market is dominated by Japanese brands, the competitive landscape is still far from saturated by carmakers and could still provide
opportunities for new entrants. China's Great Wall Motor arrived in the market in February and plans to launch six models, which will
include the Wingle pick-up and Hover SUV, aimed at the country's largest vehicle segment.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Philippines Auto Industry SWOT .. 6
Philippines Political SWOT ... 7
Philippines Economic SWOT . 8
Philippines Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Asia Pacific Regional Overview .... 10
Asian Auto Sector Becomes The Sum Of Its Parts . 10
Business Environment Ratings .... 19
Philippines Autos Report Q3 2010 Page 1/4

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Table: Business Environment Ratings ' Auto Industry Asia Pacific .... 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .... 23
Table: Philippines Auto Industry ' Production & Sales 23
Table: Philippines Motorcycle Production And Sales (Units) 24
Trade 25
Table: Philippines Auto Industry ' Exports And Imports ...... 25
Economic Contribution . 26
Table: Philippines Auto Industry ' Economic Contribution . 26
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ..... 27
Table: Philippines ' Economic Activity .... 29
Competitive Landscape .. 30
Table: Philippines ' Top 10 Total Vehicle Sales, 2009 .. 30
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicle Segment (Units), 2009 ... 31
Industry News . 32
Company News ...... 34
Components Industry .... 37
Company Profiles ..... 38
Geely Strategy Supports BMI View .. 38
Table: South Korea ' Imported Luxury Vehicle Sales ... 41
Company Profiles ..... 42
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) ..... 42
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP) 44
BMI Methodology ..... 45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 45
Sources .... 46
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