Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update

Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 1
FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS
& STRATEGY UPDATE
LONDON, JANUARY 31 2013
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
DELIVERING COMPETITIVE &
INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE

AND STRATEGY UPDATE
PETER VOSER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing
impact.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal
Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us"
and "our" are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by
identifying the particular company or companies. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to companies in which
Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which
Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as "associated companies" or "associates" and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to
as "jointly controlled entities". In this announcement, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as "equity-accounted investments". The term "Shell
interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23 per cent shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership
interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This announcement contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell and the Shell Group. All
statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future
expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things,
statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell and the Shell Group to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates,
forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could",
"estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and
phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and the Shell Group and could cause those results to differ materially from those
expressed in the forward looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b)
changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry
competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful
negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative,
fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and
regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the
approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward looking statements contained in this
announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on
forward looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell's 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2011 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
announcement, 31 January 2013. Neither Shell nor any of its subsidiaries nor the Shell Group undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward
looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or
inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement.
Shell may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the SEC strictly prohibits Shell from including in its filings with the SEC. U.S. investors
are urged to consider closely the disclosure in Shell's Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from
the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS
 Maintaining our long term focus; managing short-term headwinds
 2012 reported CCS earnings $27 billion, total CFFO $46 billion; delivering growth
 Expected Q1 2013 dividend increase 4.7%, $0.45 per share, reflecting growth momentum
GROWTH DELIVERY
 12 billion boe resources on stream + 20 billion boe in development funnel
 Exploration & deals add ~4 billion boe resources potential 2012
 Growth priority: integrated gas, deep-water, resources plays
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD
 2010-12 start-ups reach >10% of 2012 CFFO & ~20% of 2012 production; more to come
 Robust 2013-17 project flow
 Strong build in optionality - capital constraints driving hard portfolio choices
RECONFIRMING OUR GROWTH AGENDA

‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY
injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours
ENERGY INTENSITY - REFINERIES
Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)
SPILLS - OPERATIONAL
Volume in thousand tonnes
FOCUS ON SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY
2012 UPDATE
 HSSE PRIORITY
 PERFORMANCE + TRANSPARENCY
Working hours
TRCF

ROBUST LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTALS
ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK
million boe/d
MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY
$/bbl $ per unit of measurement
ENERGY MARKET
Brent (LHS)
WTI (LHS)
Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS)
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Wind
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Solar
Shell activities
Weighted average refining margin $/bbl (RHS)
Western Canada Select (LHS)

TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
UPSTREAM
 Growth strategy; price upside
 Priority: deep-water, integrated gas, resources plays
DOWNSTREAM
 Optimize re-shaped portfolio
 Selective growth
CLIMATE CHANGE
 Grow gas and biofuels
 CCS and energy efficiency
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
 Investing for growth and competitive payout
 Through-cycle returns and risk management
STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION
SUSTAINED INVESTMENT:
~80% UPSTREAM
Europe
Africa,
Middle East,
CIS
Asia Pacific
Americas
Upstream
Downstream + Corporate
Acquisitions
Divestments
DS + Corp.

RECONFIRMING OUR OUTLOOK
2012 OUTLOOK
Cash flow from operations $46 billion
($43 billion ex W/C)
2012-15: $175-200 billion
Net capex $30 billion 2012-15: $120-130 billion
Dividends distributed $10.8 billion 2013 >$11 billion
Oil and gas production outcome 3.3 million boe/d 2017/18: ~4.0 million boe/d
Gearing 9% 0-30%
 NO CHANGE TO SHELL’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS
 DIVIDEND INCREASE REFLECTS DELIVERY
 EXPECTED STRONG PROJECT PIPELINE AND OPTIONS
 CAPITAL CEILING DRIVES HARD CHOICES
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/bbl Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements

EARNINGS
$ billion CCS
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS
$ billion
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
TSR is averaged across year-end. Source: Datastream
VOLUMES
million boe per day million tonnes per annum
Oil + Gas production volumes
2010-2012 asset sales
LNG sales volumes
IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE
Other majors
Upstream
Downstream
Corporate
2010 2011 2012
Shell
Divestments/other
+45%
+ ~70%

UPSTREAM FACILITIES COMPONENT COST (IPA)
BENCHMARK QUARTILE
UNPLANNED DOWNTIME: DOWNSTREAM
%
Oil Products Chemicals
LNG RELIABILITY
%
OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
 IMPROVING ASSET UPTIME
 MANAGING COSTS
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: ~20 START-UPS 2010-12
$ billion million boe per day
Cash flow
Organic capex
2010-12 TRACK RECORD
North America: tight gas
Norway: Gjoa
Canada: AOSP-1
Singapore: Chemicals
Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph1
USA: Perdido
Netherlands: Schoonebeek
Qatar: Qatargas 4 LNG
Qatar: Pearl GTL
Oman: Qarn Alam
Iraq:West Qurna
NA: tight gas
Australia Pluto LNG T1
2010
2011
2012
Production (RHS)
 2012 IMPACT FROM 10-12 PROJECTS
 >10% OF GROUP CFFO
 ~20% OF PRODUCTION
 FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL
Brasil: Raízen
CFFO and capex outlook at $100 Brent
Qatar + AOSP-1
CFFO impact
Qatar: Pearl GTL ramp-up
USA: Caesar Tonga Ph 1
Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap
(early production)
Oman: Harweel
Raízen
Qatar: Pearl GTL
START-UPS 2010-12
Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap
NA: tight gas/shales
Eagle Ford

Q4 + 2012 RESULTS
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

EARNINGS Q4 2011 TO Q4 2012
$ billion
Q4 AND 2012 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
FY 2011 FY 2012
UPSTREAM 20.6 20.0
DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 4.3 5.3
BUSINESS SEGMENTS TOTAL 24.9 25.3
CORPORATE & MINORITIES (0.2) (0.2)
CCS NET EARNINGS 24.7 25.1
BASIC CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 3.97 4.02
CASH FROM OPERATIONS 36.8 46.1
SHARE BUY BACKS 1.1 1.5
DIVIDENDS 10.5 10.8
DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE 1.68 1.72
Earnings CCS basis; earnings and EPS excluding identified items
EARNINGS 2011-12
$ billion

UPSTREAM & DOWNSTREAM PERFORMANCE
Oil Products
Chemicals
DOWNSTREAM EARNINGS
$ billion
INDUSTRY REFINING + CRACKER MARGINS
$/barrel
Weighted average refining margin
US ethane cracker margin (RHS) WE Naphtha cracker margin (RHS)
$/tonne
UPSTREAM EARNINGS
$ billion
$/barrel $/mscf
SHELL OIL & GAS REALISATIONS
Oil
Gas (RHS)
Other Upstream
Integrated gas
Earnings CCS basis excluding identified items

Net Debt Gearing (RHS)
CASH GENERATION
$ billion $ billion
Cash flow from operations
Asset sales
Acquisitions
Capex + equity acc. investments
STRONG BALANCE SHEET
$ billion
DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD
$ billion $ billion
Dividends declared
FTSE 100 total dividends
paid (RHS)
CASH FLOW AND PAYOUT
Gearing
range
 STRONG BALANCE SHEET
 GENERATING SURPLUS CASH
 SUSTAINED DIVIDEND
PERFORMANCE
Sources Uses Sources Uses
Dividend and buyback
UP
STREAM
DOWN
STREAM
UP
STREAM
DOWN
STREAM
2010-12 2012
CFFO excluding working capital movements

DIVESTMENTS 2010-2012 ACQUISITIONS 2010-2012
GROWTH OIL + GAS:
 Resources plays
 Increased stakes in Shell fields
 New exploration acreage
SELECTIVE GROWTH DOWNSTREAM:
 Brazil biofuels, retail, Gasnor gas to transport
REFOCUSED DOWNSTREAM:
 Europe; Africa; Latin-America
LATE LIFE/NON-STRATEGIC UPSTREAM:
 Upstream ~130 kboe/d
 Strategic partnering
WORKING OUR PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
Upstream
Downstream
Upstream
Downstream
Permian, USA
Beryl, UKHolstein, Gulf of Mexico
Onshore assets, Nigeria

2010-12 RESERVES ADDITIONS 2012 RESERVES PERFORMANCE
 2012 RRR 44%
 2010-12 RRR 84%
 Reserves life at end 2012 ~ 11
years
2010-12 RESERVES AVG.
PERFORMANCE
 Organic2 additions ~ 4.2
billion boe
 Production ~ 3.7 billion boe
 Organic reserves replacement
115%
SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION
Major reserves additions
1 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders
2 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and price impacts
Expected SEC proved reserves; final volumes will be reported in 2012 20-F annual report
RESERVES REPLACEMENT
2010-12 2012
ORGANIC 115% 85%
ORGANIC INCL. PRICE EFFECTS 92% 50%
SEC PROVED RESERVES (BILLION
BOE) 2010 2011 2012
ORGANIC RESERVES ADDITIONS 1.7 1.5 1.0
PRODUCTION 1.2 1.2 1.2
NET RESERVES1
14.2 14.2 13.6

CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION…
billion boe
Capital in service
Capital other
Return on capital in service (RHS)
Return on capital employed (RHS)
HYDROCARBON MATURATION + RETURNS
…AND RETURNS
$ billion %
SUSTAINED PROJECT FLOW
 12 BILLION BOE ON STREAM
 20 BILLION BOE IN ~60 PROJECTS IN FUNNEL
Longer-term upside
Pluto (Woodside)
Harweel
NA tight gas/shales
Eagle Ford
Caesar Tonga
Gumusut-Kakap
(early oil)
Tempa Rossa
Fram
Malikai
Forcados Yokri
Southern Swamp
AOSP debottl.
NA tight gas/shales
Abadi FLNG Phase 1
Tukau Timur
Zaedyus
Zabazaba
2008 2009 2010 2011
On-stream
Under Construction
Study
Production
2012
Gbaran Ubie Ph2
Rab Harweel
Erha North ph3
ML South
BC-10 ph3
Eagle Ford
Permian
Majnoon FCP
Petai
Amal Steam
Kashagan Ph1
BC10 Ph2
NWS North Rankin 2
AOSP debottlenecking
2013 E

EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH
% growth 2010-2012
EPS + CFPS: four quarters rolling to Q3, earnings on reported CCS basis
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion % growth 2009-2012
CASHFLOW PER SHARE GROWTH
% growth 2010-2012
Dividends four quarters rolling to Q3 , payout ratio DPS declared/EPS CCS reported
COMPETITIVE PAYOUT
Dividend $ billion %
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
 SECTOR-LEADING EARNINGS AND CASHFLOW GROWTH
 MAINTAINING THROUGH CYCLE INVESTMENT PACE + CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
 INDUSTRY-LEADING DIVIDEND + PAYOUT RATIO
2009 2010 2013E 2012 payout ratio (RHS)2012/
target
2011

REFRESHING OUR GROWTH OUTLOOK
PETER VOSER

INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
LONGER TERM
GROWTH
PRIORITY
ENGINES
 Reserves-rich plays with long-term drivers
 Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Heavy Oil & Arctic
 Slower pace + capital allocation
 Integrated infrastructure + global capabilities
 Standardized developments + technology
 Extending cash flows through technology
 Focused exploration + licence renewals
 Long-term engine; taking steps to enhance profitability
 Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets
 Leveraging Shell’s scale + market growth
ORGANIC CAPEX 2013
$ billion
 INVESTMENT CHOICES DRIVEN ON A GLOBAL THEMATIC BASIS
 MORE EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL, PEOPLE, TECHNOLOGY
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
RESOURCES
PLAYS
DEEP-WATER
INTEGRATED
GAS
UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM

US gas-to-
chemicals
 Long-term engine
 Cost + portfolio steps to
enhance profitability
 Selective growth in chemicals,
biofuels, growth markets
DOWNSTREAM ENGINE
Under development
Options
Qatar chemicals
Gas-to-chemicals US
China
Singapore chemicals Raízen Port ArthurNanhai chemicals
2006 2010 2011 2013 FUTURE
2012+ deals
Qatar chemicals
Lubes Russia
LNG to
transport
Rhineland Connect
China Retail + Lubes
China refining
and chemicals
Gasnor
acquisition
Clyde refinery
conversion to
terminal
Key country
Singapore Chemicals
Cracker debottleneck
SADAF expansion

UPSTREAM GROWTH PORTFOLIO UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2012 FIDShell operated
Kashagan
Phase1
Majnoon
FCP
2017+
0.1 mboe/d
Amal
Steam
Bab THG &HB-2
Bonga
North
West
Forcados
Yokri
Fram
Gumusut
- Kakap
North
Rankin 2
SAS
Southern
Swamp AG
CorribClair Ph2
Gorgon LNG T1-3
Malikai
NWS Gas – GWF – Phase A
Sabah Gas
Kebabangan (KBB)
Schiehallion
Redevelopment
Tempa
Rossa
Prelude
Wheatstone
AOSP
debottlenecking
Eagle
Ford
BC-10
phase 2
Cardamom
Mars B, W.Boreas, S. Deimos
North
American
tight gas
North American
liquids rich shales
2015-2016
0.3 mboe/d
2013-2014
0.5 mboe/d
2012 start-ups
0.2 mboe/d
DEEP-WATER
UPSTREAM
ENGINE
INTEGRATED
GAS
RESOURCES
PLAYS
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
Caesar Tonga Ph 1
Pluto
(Woodside)
Harweel




 








Start-up/
Peak Production
Production @ $80 Brent scenario

~30 PROJECTS
 7 BILLION BOE
RESOURCES
 0.9 MBOE/D
North American tight gas
Petai

2013-14 START-UPS
0.5 MBOE PER DAY
Kashagan Phase 1, Kazakhstan Majnoon FCP, Iraq
MarsB Olympus hull arrives in Texas, USANorth Rankin, Australia
2013 EXAMPLES

Design
0.7 mboe/d
MATURING >30 NEW OPTIONS 2013+
>1MBOED POTENTIAL; 13 BILLION BOE RESOURCES
Concept Selection
0.4 mboe/d
Phase
Peak Production
Bosi Field Development
Geronggong
Gorgon T4
Expansion
Nigeria NLNG Train 7
Pearls - Khazar
Sunrise LNG
Tukau Timur
Zabazaba
Zaedyus
Abadi FLNG Phase 1
Arrow Energy LNG
Bokor Phase 3
Browse (BCT) LNG
Erha North Ph 3
ML South
North American Tight Gas
Rabab Harweel
Integrated Project
Appomattox
Bonga North
Majnoon FFD
/West Qurna FFD

Vito BC-10 Massa
(Phase 3) 
Bonga South West
Carmon Creek
Expansion Ph 1 & 2

Linnorm
Shell operated
LNG Canada 
North American
Gas to Transport
 STRONG BUILD IN
OPTIONALITY
 CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
DRIVING HARD CHOICES
 PORTFOLIO CAN
SUPPORT GROWTH
TO ~2020
Production @ $80 Brent scenario
AOSP
Debottlenecking

North American
Liquids Rich Shales



DEEP-WATER
UPSTREAM
ENGINE
INTEGRATED
GAS
RESOURCES
PLAYS
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
Gbaran Ubie Ph 2
Stones

MAXIMIZING VALUE IN OUR UPSTREAM ENGINES
EXAMPLE: EUROPE UPSTREAM
Under construction
On stream
Corrib
Schiehallion
Clair
Fram
Tempa Rossa
 Increased stake
from 36% to 55%
 Redevelopment
underway
 Beryl + Draugen
stakes increased
2012 progress
2012 FID
PRODUCTION
million boe per day
Netherlands
UK
Denmark
Other
Asset Sales 2010-12Norway
 SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS:
 BERYL, SCHIEHALLION,
DRAUGEN 2012
 NEW GROWTH HUBS
 BRENT DECOMMISSIONING
CAPEX
$ billion
Draugen, North Sea, Norway

 Leveraging Shell’s scale + market
growth
 Technology and project delivery
capabilities
 Potential doubling of capacity
 2012: ~0.8* mboe/d; 20 mtpa
LNG
INDUSTRY-LEADING INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO
Green Corridor GTT
Hazira
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ billion
On stream Under construction
8.2 billion boe
Study
Under
construction
On
stream
Liquefaction
Regas
Gas-to-transport
GTL
North America: developing
new gas value chain options
Pearl GTL
Ramp up 2012
2012 progress
Australia: major growth
projects under construction
SHELL GLOBAL LNG GROWTH
On stream OptionsUnder construction
2012 ~2020+2007
million tonnes per annum
* includes feedgas from non-integrated ventures

NORTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA/INDONESIA
 7 mtpa under construction
 New LNG + FLNG options under study
 Increased Browse equity; Prelude dilution
 0.3 mtpa gas to transport under construction
 LNG options, GTL, Gas-to-Chemicals under study
for 2014+ FID
NORTH AMERICA & AUSTRALIA
INTEGRATED GAS CLOSE-UP
Under construction
On stream
Options
Construction
Project
Specifications
Concept
Selection
Feasibility
Study
FID ExecuteDefineSelectAssess Start
up Operate
Ramp-up to
full capacity
LNG Canada
US Gas-to-Chemicals
Elba LNG
Sunrise LNG
Gorgon LNG T4
Green Corridor GTT
NWS GWF
Wheatstone LNG
Gorgon LNG T1-3
Prelude FLNG
North Rankin 2
US GTL
Gulf Coast LNG Options
Great Lakes GTT
Gulf Coast GTT
Arrow LNG
Abadi LNG
Browse LNG
Northwest Shelf
Pluto (Woodside)
Pennsylvania
Gas-to-Chemicals
Gulf Coast
LNG Options
GTL
Green Corridor GTT
LNG Canada
Great Lakes GTT
Gulf Coast GTT Elba LNG
Browse BCT
LNG
Prelude FLNG
Gorgon LNG
Sunrise FLNG
Abadi FLNG
Arrow
Pluto LNG
1(Woodside)
Wheatstone LNG
North Rankin 2
NWS GWF Ph1
Gorgon T4
North West Shelf

 Established production
leadership
 Standardized developments +
production technology
 Frontier exploration potential
 2012: 0.3 mboe/d
GLOBAL DEEP-WATER
LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO
Under construction
On stream
New exploration
Malaysia /
BruneiGulf of Mexico
Brazil
 Mars-B
 Cardamom
 BC-10 ph2
 Gumusut-Kakap
 Malikai
 Sabah Gas Kebabangan KBB
 Petai
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ billion
On stream Under construction
3.3 billion boe
Study
Nigeria
Perdido Spar
 Bonga North West

DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO
0.2 MBOE/D 2012; GROWTH POTENTIAL
Auger
Mars
Ursa
Nakika
Brutus
Perdido
Vito
 ~100 kboe/d potential
 >300 million boe resources
 Shell 51.33% (operator)
 Final appraisal well underway
Appomattox
 ~150 kboe/d hub potential
 500 million boe resources
 Shell 80% (operator)
 2013 appraisal of Vicksburg (Shell 75%)
Stones
 ~60 kboe/d FPSO
 >250 million boe resources
 Shell 60% (operator, increased stake)
Caesar Tonga
Cardamom Deep
Mars-B
W.Boreas, S. Deimos
100 km
Mars-B,
Olympus tension leg platform
Under construction
On stream
Options
Mars B
~100 kboe/d
Shell 71.5 % (operator)
Cardamom Deep
~50 kboe/d potential
Shell 100% (operator)
Tie – back to Auger
FID START-UPDISCOVERY
Mars B
Cardamom
Stones
Appomattox
Vito

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
MAJOR POSITIONS IN LONGER TERM PLAYS
Under construction
On stream
AOSP debottlenecking
+ CCS
Heavy Oil
2012 progress
NIGERIA
2 onshore FIDs
Completed $1.1 billion
divestments
IRAQ
 Majnoon FCP 2013
 Basrah Gas
Company JV 2013
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ bln
On stream Under construction Study
8.1 billion boe
RESOURCE RICH PLAYS
LONG LEAD TIMES
SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT PACE +
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
2012: 0.5 MBOE/D
KAZAKHSTAN
 Shell operatorship
post start-up 2013
SPDC PHOTO OF NEW
PROJECT PLEASE. DISCO =
RUST BUCKET
Forcados Yokri, Nigeria
Arctic
2013 includes ~$1 billion for Basrah Gas Company (BGC) EAI injection

 2 top holes drilled
 >20 vessels and 2,000 employees/contractors,
~12,000 employee rotations
 Positive support from regulators + community
 Kulluk rig incident
2012 ALASKA PERFORMANCE
DRILLING FLUID BLOW OUT PREVENTER
CAPPING STACK ARCTIC CONTAINMENT
SYSTEM
1
1
2
2
3 4
3 4
MULTIPLE DRILLING BARRIERS
Kulluk towed to safe harbour in Kiliuda Bay, Jan. 2013
Photo credit to Unified Command
300 km

BUILDING CONVENTIONAL ACREAGE
‘000 km2 cumulative
gross acreage
cumulative spend
$ billion
Liquids Gas
RELOADING OUR CONVENTIONAL PORTFOLIO
Conventional
EnginesFrontier
Acreage
Entry cost
2010 2011 2012
Building new acreage
RESOURCES ADDED
2007-2009
Tanzania
Nova Scotia
Greenland
Brunei DW
Albania
Iraq
South Africa DW
Kalmykia New Zealand
Australia Canning
Nile Delta
Qatar (block D)
Philippines
GOM
Timan Pechora
Abadi
French Guiana
Malaysia
Turkey
UK North Sea
GOM
Yinggehai
Egypt
Benin
Brunei
billion boe
2010-2012 DELIVERY:
~5 BILLION BOE
~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS)
Abadi
Iraq
Australia
Gabon
Italy
Colombia
Guyana
Libya
Norway
UK
US GoM
Tunisia
Indonesia
Alaska US GoM
Deals
Newfoundland
Browse
North Sea

KEY RESOURCES ADDITIONS - DRILLING
2012 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL
E&A RESOURCES ADDED 2012
billion boe
Asia
Pacific
Americas
Middle East,
Africa, CIS
Europe
2012 DELIVERY:
 7 NOTABLE DISCOVERIES / APPRAISAL SUCCESSES
 20 NEAR FIELD DISCOVERIES
 ~600 MILLION BOE; >60% OIL
Deep-water Brazil BMS-54
Gato do Mato appraisal (Shell 80%)
Confirmed high productivity
Malaysia:
Tukau Timur deep gas
Discovery (Shell 50%)
Gas for MLNG
Nigeria Deep-water
Zabazaba
Major oil play (Shell 50%)
Gulf of Mexico appraisal
Appomattox 500 mmboe (Shell 80%)
FID ~ 2015
NWS gas
Satyr 2/4 (Shell 25%) – gas for
Gorgon T4
Arnhem & Pinhoe (Shell 50%)
discoveries; FLNG potential
Oil
Gas

BUILDING UP GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN RESOURCES PLAYS
TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
E&A
Changbei
KarooNeuquen
Ukraine
Turkey
Sichuan
Positive initial
exploration
Germany
Egypt Oman
Colombia
On stream
Liquids rich shale
Gas Liquids Rich

Tight gas
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ bln
Future potential (prospective resources)
10.6 billion boe

2012 Portfolio Build

On stream Under construction Study
LRS Dry gas
BUILDING NEW TIGHT/SHALE ACREAGE
Acreage
Entry cost
RESOURCES ADDED
Liquids Gas Resources-Based Deals
2010-2012 DELIVERY:
~7 BILLION BOE
~$3/BOE (E&A+DEALS)
Permian
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Arrow
billion boe
‘000 km2 cumulative
gross acreage
cumulative spend
$ billion
LRS
Sao Francisco Arrow

*2012 includes $3.5 billion acreage deals

PRODUCTION
NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS
TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
 ~30,000 km2 portfolio, 60%
liquids-rich
 Eagle Ford LRS development
underway
 Drilling focus shifted to LRS
from dry gas
 ~10,000 km2 new acreage 2012
 Permian acquisition $1.9
billion
 Additions to existing positions
 Integrated gas options
Liquids
mboe/day
GasLRS
$ billion
CAPEX
Dry gas
bcfe/day
Divestments
Piloncillo, Eagle Ford
Acquisitions
Gas
Positive initial exploration / appraisal
Pinedale
Groundbirch
Deep Basin
Foothills
Utica
Permian
Exshaw
Niobrara
Mississippi Lime
Eagle Ford
Montney
Canol
Monterey
Haynesville
Marcellus
Liquids Rich Shales
Duvernay
 


Onstream


GROUP PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Region Theme
CONVERTING
RESOURCES TO
CASH FLOW
12 BN BOE ON STREAM
20 BN BOE IN FUNNEL
Europe
Asia
Pacific
Americas
Middle
East,
Africa,
CIS
Mars B TLP on its way to Gulf of Mexico
Prelude cutting first steel in South Korea
Outlook at $80 Brent, assumes improved US gas prices from 2012 and 250,000 boe/d divestments and lease expiries 2012+
Upstream
Engine
Integrated
Gas
Resources
Plays
Deep-water
Future
Opportunities

2013 CAPEX & OUTCOME
$ billion
CFFO outlook @$100 Brent and assumes improved US gas environment from 2012; CFFO
excludes working capital movements
TURNING NEW INVESTMENT INTO CASH FLOW
SPENDING PROGRAMME +
NEAR-TERM CASH FLOW
Exploration &
Appraisal
2017+
2015-16
KeyProjectsStart-up
Upstream Base,
Downstream +
Corporate
Longer
Term
2012-15 CFFO
2013-14
~50% of capex on stream by
2015
IMPACT OF KEY UPSTREAM START-UPS
$ billion
2010-12
2013+
2010-12
2013+
ORGANIC
CAPEX
CFFO

FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

ON TRACK FOR AMBITIOUS CFFO GROWTH + INVESTMENT PLAN
($100 scenario)
$ billion
1 Portfolio/Choice negative impact on 2012 cash flow target: reduced NA gas drilling, divestments, project slippage
2 CFFO & capex outlook at $100, assumes improved US gas, WTI and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
3 Potential impact in $100 scenario from continuation of 2012 Downstream environment, Henry Hub, WCS and WTI discounts
Cash flow from operations/ex working capital
Net Capital Investment
Dividends + buybacks
Macro sensitivity3
Growth outlook:
 New projects
 Enhanced unit cash flow
 Macro uplift
Investment for sustained
growth 2012-15:
 ~$120-130 billion net spend
 >$16 billion asset sales
PRIORITY ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
2009 – 2012
average
2012 – 2015
average potential 2
2012
macro
Portfolio/
Choice1
$91/bbl
$112/bbl
$100/bbl
2012 trend
Free
cashflow

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES
million boe/day
Production + potential 2012+ asset sales
PRODUCTION & POTENTIAL
2012 PERFORMANCE
million boe/day
Controllable
PRODUCTION IS AN OUTCOME OF
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
CASHFLOW GROWTH >
PRODUCTION GROWTH
MULTIPLE PATHWAYS TO DELIVERY
OF TARGETS
UPSTREAM CAPEX + CFFO SCENARIO
2012
2013 2015 potential
2012Capex: CFFO:
$ billion

KEY WELLS
EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL 2013-14
Exploration & Appraisal
Acreage/Deals
CONVENTIONAL
$ billion
2010-12: 12 BILLION BOE AT ~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS)
INCREASED CONVENTIONAL DRILLING ACTIVITY:
HIGH POTENTIAL WELLS; 18 BASINS
CONTINUED DRILLING IN NEAR-FIELDS
MORE LRS AND TIGHT GAS DRILLING: 10+ KEY PLAY
TESTS 2013-14; MULTI-TCFE POTENTIAL
Exploration & Appraisal
Acreage/Deals
RESOURCES PLAYS
$ billion
Frontier conventional
US GoM
French Guiana
BruneiNigeria
Albania
Canning
+ Exmouth
Alaska
Neuquen LRS
China
Colombia
Benin
Gabon
Ukraine
Tight/shale
North America LRS
‘13 ‘14
Turkey
Qatar
Yinggehai
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
Tanzania
New Zealand
Oman
Russia
Germany
Egypt
Arrow
Permian
ZitongEast,
Eagle
Ford NA
LRS
Brazil
Abadi
Iraq
Browse
North Sea

DELIVERING OUR SPENDING
PLAN
TOUGH INVESTMENT HURDLES
TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
2013 acquisitions announced in 2012: Basrah Gas Company formation, other announced Upstream positions
ORGANIC CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion $ billion
Exploration
Key projects
Growth
Base
CAPITAL INVESTMENT + OUTLOOK
$ billion
2010 2011 2012
Target
2012 2013
Target
Organic investment 24 26 ~32 32 34
Acquisitions 7 5 5 2
Total Capital Investment 31 31 ~32 37 36
Disposals (7) (7) (~2-3) (7) (3)
Net Capital Investment 24 24 ~30 30 33
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
Base
Deep-water
Upstream engine
Integrated gas
Resources plays
Future opportunities
Downstream engine

MAINTAINING OUR FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
CASH PERFORMANCE
 $175-$200 billion CFFO 2012-15
 Grow free cash flow
 CFFO drives investment + payout
INVESTMENT
 $120-$130 billion net capex 2012-15
 ~$33 billion net capex 2013
 Affordability, profitability, portfolio
PAY-OUT
 Dividend linked to business results
 Scrip dividend with buy back offset
 Expected dividend growth 2013
BALANCE SHEET
 0 – 30% gearing through cycle
 Balance sheet underpins investment
 Capital employed grows steadily
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/BBL Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012

AND STRATEGY UPDATE
PETER VOSER

SHELL
ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS
GROWTH DELIVERY
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD
LONGER TERM
GROWTH
PRIORITY
ENGINES
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
RESOURCES
PLAYS
DEEP-WATER
INTEGRATED
GAS
UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM

Q&A

BACK UP

KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Deep-waterUpstream Engine
Integrated Gas
Resources plays
Longer term

STRONG PORTFOLIO OF PRE-FID UPSTREAM
OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2014-2020 START-UPS
Deep-water
Upstream Engine
Integrated Gas
Resources plays
Longer term

PROJECT STATUS
Construction time elapsed %
PROJECT MANAGEMENT + PERFORMANCE
Mars-B: TLP on transport to US Gulf0% 50% 100%
MALIKAI
FRAM
TEMPA ROSSA
SOUTHERN SWAMP
WHEATSTONE
FORKADOS YOKRI
NWS GAS - GWF - PHASE A
PRELUDE FLNG
CLAIR PH2
SCHIEHALLION REDEVELOPMENT
SABAH GAS KEBABANGAN (KBB)
CARDAMOM
GORGON LNG T1-3
PETAI
MARS B, W. BOREAS & S.…
BC-10 PHASE 2
GUMUSUT-KAKAP
CORRIB
MAJNOON FCP
BONGA NW
AOSP DEBOTTLENECKING
NORTH RANKIN 2
SAS
KASHAGAN PHASE 1
BAB THAMAMA G & BAB…
31-Dec-12

Movements 2010 2011 2012
Organic1 reserves additions 1,653 1,545 1,047
Year average price effect -198 -235 -431
Production -1,242 -1,212 -1,234
Acquisition & divestment -85 -105 -74
Total subsidiaries and affiliates movements 1,370 1,205 542
Year end positions
Total subsidiaries and affiliates reserves 14,273 14,266 13,573
Non-controlling interests 24 16 18
Net Shell reserves2 14,249 14,250 13,555
2010-2012 RESERVES SUMMARY
2010 2011 2012 2010-12
RRR Organic 133% 127% 85% 115%
RRR Organic incl. price effects 117% 108% 50% 92%
RRR Reported 110% 99% 44% 84%
RESERVES IN MILLION BOE3
1 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and year-average price impact
2 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders
3 Based on 12-month average price

Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update

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Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update