Ian Craig (EVP Sub-Saharan Africa) and Mutiu Sunmonu (Managing Director SPDC) presented at a field visit Shell organised for Socially Responsible Investors in Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
SHELL IN NIGERIA
PORT HARCOURT, NIGERIA
OCTOBER 10, 2012
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 10 October 2012 1
2. SHELL IN NIGERIA
IAN CRAIG
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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3. CAUTIONARY NOTE
Spill volumes, both due to operational and crude theft/sabotage activities, are estimates made during the regulated Joint investigation visits.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal
Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us”
and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by
identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which
Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies
in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are
referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term
“Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership
interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other
than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are
based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the
potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and
assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’,
‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There
are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for
Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental
and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments
including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)
political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of
projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are
expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2011 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
presentation, 10 October 2012. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred
from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this
presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from
including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website
www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
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4. NIGERIA
~167 million people
20% of population live in the
Niger Delta NIGERIA
Federal Republic
OPEC estimates oil reserves of ~35
billion barrels and ~185 tcf gas
reserves*
THE
Produces ~2.5 million barrels of oil NIGER DELTA
per day
400 km
MAJOR OIL AND GAS PROVINCE
SHELL PRESENCE SINCE 1950s
*Definition not consistent with SEC proved reserves
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5. ECONOMIC GROWTH
NIGERIA
+3% p.a +9% p.a
BRAZIL
+2% p.a +4% p.a
NIGERIA: ONE OF
FASTEST GROWING
MALAYSIA
+4% p.a +5% p.a ECONOMIES
GDP per capita ~ $1600-
2600 (South Africa $8700 in
WORLD 2011)
ECONOMY +4% p.a +3% p.a
Oil & gas revenue account
for 80% of government
revenues, ~30% of GDP and
SUB-SAHARAN 95% of export revenues
AFRICA +3% p.a +5% p.a
Annual inflation 12-14%
1996-1999 2000-2010 High unemployment: >20%
Source: IMF real terms growth, WWM Global Insights
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6. NIGERIA ECONOMY
TOP BUSINESS COMPLAINTS ECONOMIC COST OF POWER OUTAGES
Electricity Nigeria
Finance (access) Malawi
Uganda
Finance (cost)
Kenya
Tax rates
South Africa
Macro econ
Tanzania
Corruption Madagascar
Transportation Benin
Cabo Verde
Crime
Senegal
Tax
administration Cameroon
Access to land
Burkina Faso
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 1 2 3 4
% of respondents % of GDP
Source: WB Investment Climate Assessment 2011 Source: derived from Eberhard and others 2009
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7. SAFETY
PERSONAL SAFETY INDICATORS WORKPLACE FATALITIES
per million man hours #
1.0 12
10
8
0.5 6 Iriama (7 fatalities)
4
2
0.0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (end 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Aug)
Shell in Nigeria TRCF (total recordable case frequency) Motor vehicle incident Drowning
Worksite hazard Security
KIDNAPPINGS
#
2 fatalities in 2012 to date
100
armed attack on an environmental survey
50 Kidnapping remains a real threat for staff and
families
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (end
August)
Staff Contractors
Family
All data on a Shell operated basis
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8. SHELL FOOTPRINT IN NIGERIA
OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE
Divested
In Process 40 OML
ERHA/BOSI
4/38/41 Long history of operations in
42 34 30 26
country: >50 years
GBARAN UBIE
SPDC JV – Onshore/Shallow water
BONGA AFAM POWER STATION
OGONILAND
NIGERIA LNG production
SNEPCO – Deepwater production
OPL245
NLNG – LNG JV
PRODUCTION (SHELL SHARE 2011)
kboe per day mtpa capacity
300
250
200 5
150
100
50
0 0
SPDC SNEPCO NLNG (RHS)
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9. SHELL BUSINESSES IN NIGERIA
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
Onshore/shallow offshore People: ~1,000
People: 3,500 (30,000 LNG production capacity:
contractors) 22 mtpa, Trains 1-6
Potential production: ~1 MM
boe/d
~1,000 wells, ~8000 km
pipelines
SPDC JV NLNG
(55% NNPC, 30% SPDC Ltd, 10% Total, 5% Eni) (49% NNPC, 25.6% Shell, 15% Total, 10.4% Eni)
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION DOMESTIC GAS DISTRIBUTION
Deepwater People: ~40
People: ~600 Location: Niger Delta
Bonga & Erha production Downstream gas supply
Operated production capacity:
225,000 boe/d
SNEPCo SNG
(100% Shell) (100% Shell)
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10. SNEPCO: DEEPWATER
OML 118 - Bonga, Shell 55%
Discovered 1995, on-stream 2005
FPSO capacity: 200 kbbl/d & 150 MMscf/d
SNEPCO operated
OML 133 – Erha/Bosi, Shell 44%, non-operated
Onstream : 2006
FPSO Capacity: 190 kbbl/d
Bonga FPSO ( Shell 55%) Bonga NW development (OML 118), Shell 55%
45 kboe/d expansion
Tie back to Bonga; on-stream 2014/2015
OPL 245 – Zabazaba, Shell 50%, non operated
Existing discoveries with development potential
Further exploration potential
SHELL PRODUCTION 106
KBOE/D (2011)
PSC CONTRACTS; 100% IOC
Erha FPSO (Shell 44%) GROWTH POTENTIAL
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11. NLNG: LNG EXPORT
Shell 25.6%, NNPC 49%, Total 15%, ENI
10.4%
6 LNG trains, 22 mtpa capacity (plus 5
mtpa of NGLs)
Train 1 and 2 on-stream 1999
Train 6 on-stream 2007
Expansion potential
NLNG T1 & 2 Construction (Shell 25.6%)
GROWTH TO 6 TRAINS SINCE
1999
INCORPORATED JV; SELF-
NLNG T6 construction FINANCING
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12. SPDC JV OVERVIEW
MUTIU SUNMONU
MANAGING DIRECTOR SPDC
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13. SPDC JV: ONSHORE/SHALLOW WATER JV
Unincorporated JV structure
Shell 30%, NNPC 55%, Total 10%, ENI 5%
Joint Operating Agreement defines rights &
obligations of operator (SPDC Ltd) and
non-operating partners
Bonny Terminal Decisions by unanimous vote of partners
All partners fund in proportion to their
share
Sea Eagle platform
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14. SPDC JV: GBARAN UBIE & AFAM VI
GBARAN UBIE
World class gas project; on-stream 2010
Delivered in height of the security problems
1 bcf/d & 70 kbbl/d liquids capacity
$1 billion in local content
95% of construction workforce was Nigerian
4 GMOUs in the area covering 44 local
communities
200,000 people benefiting from electrification
Gbaran Ubie Integrated gas project
projects.
AFAM VI
CCGT gas fired power plant
First Power 2008, construction began 2005
650 MW capacity
14%-20% of the power contribution to the national
grid
Gas provided by SPDC Okoloma facility (240
mmscf/d capacity)
Afam VI power plant
SPDC = 30% Shell, 55% NNPC, 10% Total, 5% Agip; all data on 100% basis
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15. SPDC JV: FOOTPRINT MANAGEMENT
Largest and most diverse of the IOC footprints
Deg N SPDC JV
SPDC
•Deg N Exxon Mobil
•Mobil onshore
6.5
non-producing •6.5
•non-producing
producing
•producing
5.5
WARRI
•5.5
•WARRI Recent divestments help SPDC to manage its
PHC
footprint
•PHC
4.5 •4.5
3.5 •3.5
~2,200 km oil pipelines
4 5 6 Deg E 7 8 9 •4 •5 •6 •Deg E•7 •8 •9
Deg N Agip (ENI)
Agip
Deg N Chevron
Chevron
~850 km gas pipelines
6.5 6.5
non-producing non-producing
producing producing
5.5
WARRI
5.5
WARRI
~4,600 km of flow lines
PHC PHC
4.5 4.5
3.5 3.5
4 5 6 Deg E 7 8 9 4 5 6 Deg E 7 8 9
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16. SPDC JV – MAJOR CHALLENGES
ONGOING CHALLENGES CRUDE THEFT AND ILLEGAL REFINING FLARE REDUCTION - PROGRESS BEING MADE
Large and small scale theft
Illegal refining of stolen crude Flare site in the Niger Delta
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17. CRUDE THEFT CAUSES
Estimates of 150,000 bbl/d and upwards
$ 6.1 bln revenue loss (2011 prices)
Stolen crude exported
Imports & subsidy
445,000 bbl/d refining capacity;
underutilized in practice
Imports of oil products + $ 8 bln
subsidies (2011) Fuel queue during January 2012 national strike
Stolen crude refined for local and
regional market
Crude Theft, Okololunch, Sept 2012
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18. SPDC: LARGE SCALE CRUDE THEFT
kbbl per day
150
Niger Delta wide theft
estimate of 150,000 bbl/d or
~55,000,000 bbl/year
2011 Spills due to sabotage
on SPDC rights of way or
from SPDC facilities
75 11,806 bbl
Measured as stolen from
SPDC trunk lines: 2011 Operational Spills
~40,000 bbl/d or
~15,000,000 bbl/year 3,595 bbl
0
72% recovery during cleanup in 2011
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19. NIGERIA: SPDC JV
ENVIRONMENT: SPILLS PIPELINE REPLACEMENT
oil spills, thousand tonnes #
200
15
Nembe Creek trunk line: complete 2010
150 97 km; $1.1 billion
10
Trans Niger Pipeline loop project
100 Around Ogoniland; major area of crude theft
Pending approval by government partner
5
50
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sabotage
volume of spills: Operational
Operational
number of spills (RHS):
Sabotage
2011 SPILL AND REMEDIATION PERFORMANCE
30% drop in operational spill volume
351 sites remediated (272 in 2010)
Reduction in remediation backlog from 400 end 2010
to 274 sites end 2011
SPDC = 30% Shell, 55% NNPC, 10% Total, 5% Agip; all data on 100% basis
Nembe Creek trunk line replacement
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20. SPDC: PROGRESS ON FLARING
PERFORMANCE ASSESSING NEW INVESTMENT FOR GAS
boe gas flared per barrel produced (2010 data) UTILIZATION
Onshore Offshore
Forcados Yokri & Southern Swamp AGG/Dom gas
0.1 Completion in 2014/2015; ~ $4 billion investment
Gas gathering, facility upgrades and new oil production
After completion, SPDC flaring intensity is expected to be
below the current worldwide industry average
0.0
Nigeria SPDC JV Nigeria SNEPCO
industry industry
ENVIRONMENT: FLARING
mtpa CO2e flaring SPDC JV production kboe/d
1000
15
800
10 600
400
5
200
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gas Flared Production
SPDC = 30% Shell, 55% NNPC, 10% Total, 5% Agip; all data on 100% basis
Forcados Yokri - South bank
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21. SHELL IN NIGERIA OVERVIEW
IAN CRAIG
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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22. SHELL IN NIGERIA
Shell’s portfolio & track record
Funding; security; PIB; organisational capability
2012 Progress:
2 FIDs of onshore associated gas projects
Deepwater appraisal planning
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