Presented at the recent 7th Global Infrastructure Leadership Forum Program, the presentation lays out three propositions: - Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future - Future cities require a Resilience Code - Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and private sectors Hope you enjoy

1. HOW FUTURE CITIES WILL SUCCEED:
CREATING SMART AND SUSTAINABLE
CITIES
Bob Prieto
© 2012 Fluor. All Rights Reserved.

2. 3 Propositions
 Our cities are multi-dimensional
and current frameworks are
inadequate for the future
 Future cities require a Resilience
Code
 Community resilience requires
partnership between public, NGO
and private sectors
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3. What Do We Know About the Future of Our
Cities?
A lot……
very little
– Its uncertain
 Likely that they have a future
– 5000 years of urban growth
– Good economic model
 Complex. Changing. Dynamic. Challenging.
 Current frameworks must evolve…..or break

4. A Challenging Future
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Simple
Static
Certain
Capital Efficiency
Build for decades
The Bottom Line
Safety Focus
Business Case
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
→
Complex
Dynamic
Uncertain
Life Cycle Effectiveness
Build for generations
Triple Bottom Line
Hazard Avoided
Scenario Based Resiliency

5. Proposition #1
 Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are
inadequate for the future
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–
–
–
–
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Economic
Social
Political
Religious/cultural
Intellectual
Technological

6. 7DSM Future for Our Cities
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3D – Location based information
4D – Time
5D – Attributes associated with initial instance
6D – Attributes associated with life cycle
7D – “System” level properties
 All must grow in scope and reach in the future

7. Examples of How Dimensions Change
♦ 3D – absolute and relative
positions (rise of assemblies);
tolerances important; position
awareness
♦ 4D – cradle to grave (or longer)
• Dynamic, changeable futures
• Designing, building, operating for
renewal and replacement
• Scenario based futures
♦ 5D - essentially a set of attributes
associated with first delivery of an
asset; must now include TBL;
uncertainty; assembly properties;
benefits and impacts
♦ 6D – asset life cycle attributes;
O&M and End-of-Life benefits and
impacts; TBL considerations;
scenario based and time series
values

8. 6th Dimension as Enabler
 True measure is not lowest LCC but the highest life cycle returns
– Serve an evolving society
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Developing and implementing cost-effective strategies recognizing the
long-term purpose and nature of assets
Monitoring, maintaining, enhancing asset performance.
Anticipating, mitigating, managing risks associated with asset degradation
Sharpens Asset Management focus
Enables robust life cycle planning
– Up front scenario planning
– Dynamic asset and enterprise reconfiguration - Improved Refurbishment and
Replacement (R&R) planning improves the quality of capital funding strategies
 Transition to Predictive Asset management
– Assess real time conditions and implications
– Asset O&M optimization strategies - Systems level view
• Deploying limited financial, physical and human resources in efficient, effective and
sustainable manner; making informed tradeoffs as part of our decision making process

9. 7th Dimension – System Level Properties
 7th Dimension reflects the inherent capability of our 6D system to adopt
and respond in ways it was not explicitly intended to do when first
conceived
 We use words like these to describe these system level properties
– Flexibility
– Adaptability
– Responsiveness
… or F-A-R ness
 We also refer to these system level properties with words like
RESILIENCE

10. 7th Dimension is Dynamic
 7DSM “states” are function of:
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How designed and built
Equipment and materials choices we made
How we operated and maintained
Events we have experienced
Knowledge gained and captured
Externalities and how they have changed and are changing
Insights we have embedded into our asset decisions
7th Dimension will allow stress testing for Resilience
Broadens perspective of traditional life cycle methodologies:
Framework for reconfirmation of strategies or reconfiguration guidance
Dynamic life cycle based management tool essential in managing urban
portfolios.
LCA NPV(Confidence)=
PΣ
All Σ
t=1 [(
n=1 C(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q )
- (All Σ n=1 R(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q )]

11. Proposition #2
 Future cities require a Resilience Code
Resilience - The ability to resist, absorb, recover from, or successfully
adapt to adversity or change of conditions such as a terrorist attack,
hurricane, earthquake, technological failure (dam collapse or nuclear
power plant accident. (DHS 2009)

12. Recognize Resilience Challenge
♦ Impacts from events of scale can be very devastating
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Attacks of 9/11
Florida hurricanes of 2004
Huricane Katrina 2005
Japan 2011 earthquake and tsunami
Super Storm Sandy 2012
Oklahoma City 2013 tornado
Drought, wildfire, flooding, severe storms, etc
Risks are known
Risk models have been developed to predict these risks
Plans can be made to counter the negative effects
Events affect public and private sectors
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13. Urbanization Increases Resilience Challenge
Population & Industry Densities in
Hurricane & Earthquake Hazard Zones

14. Impacts Are Growing
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15. …but stronger codes are saving lives
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16. 0
1900
1950
2010
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Number of people reported affected
100MM
200
400
Number of disasters reported
200K
0
Number of people reported Killed
500K
500
Natural disaster summary 1900-2011
(linear-interpolated smoothed lines)
250MM
Future Cities Require Resilience Codes

17. Resilience Code: Stronger Buildings
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•
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Prevent Storm Damage to Homes
Relocate & Protect Building Systems
Remove Barriers to Elevating Buildings & Building Systems
Add Backup Fire Safety Communication
Safeguard Toxic Materials Stored in Flood Zones
Prevent Sewage Backflow
Plant Wind & Flood Resistant Trees
Clarify Construction Requirements in Flood Zones
Prevent Wind Damage to Existing Buildings
Analyze Wind Risks
Capture Stormwater to Prevent Flooding
Use Cool Surfaces to Reduce Summer Heat
U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter,
Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013
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18. Resilience Code: Back-up Power
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Choose Reliable Backup Power & Prioritize Needs
Use Cogeneration & Solar During Blackouts
Remove Barriers to Backup & Natural Gas Generators
Remove Barriers to Cogeneration
Remove Barriers to Solar Energy
Add Hookups for Temporary Generators & Boilers
Keep Residential Stairwells & Hallways Lit During Blackouts
Keep Gas Stations Open During Blackouts
U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter,
Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013
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19. Resilience Code: Essential Safety
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Supply Drinking Water Without Power
Ensure Toilets & Sinks Work Without Power
Enhance Building Water Reserves
Ensure Operable Windows in Residential Buildings
Maintain Habitable Temperatures Without Power
U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter,
Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013
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20. Resilience Code: Better Community Planning
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Create Emergency Plans
Adopt an Existing Building Code
Don’t Discourage Buildings from Operating During Emergencies
Support Good Samaritan Legislation
Pre-approve Emergency Inspectors
Pre-negotiate Emergency Recovery Agreements
U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter,
Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013
20

21. Proposition #3
 Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and
private sectors
Public
Sector
Private
Sector
NGO
Sector
Community Resilience includes:
• Family housing & school
• Local businesses – Small and
Large
• Local & regional governments
• Critical utilities and infrastructure,
etc
Citizens
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22. Community Resilience - Issues
• Resilience has just entered into the National discussion
• Critical Infrastructure resides between Government and
Private Industry, making it difficult to mitigate risk
• Stafford Act focuses on Individual and Public Assistance
– Hurricane Katrina – Nearly 7,900 businesses were shut
down in southeast Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina
– Similar stories from Super Storm Sandy
• Private Industry is not addressed in current Response or
Recovery planning efforts other than SBA loans
Note: Private industry is primary income for Public
(Taxation), Citizens (Income)
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23. Community Resilience - Challenges
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Risk transfer is used as primary method to address risk
Risk mitigation not effectively used to build resilience
Few truly understand the cost / benefit to mitigating risk
Insurance industry has yet to acknowledge the benefits of
Pre-Event Planning – Cost Benefit = Premium Reduction
• Public, Private, NGO and Citizens are not engaged
methods to build Community Resilience
o Insurance industry has a special role to play
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24. Community Resilience – Path Forward
 Common language – Resilience and Resilience Scoring
 Move from a Life Safety to a Resilience Code
 Public, Private, NGO, Citizens and the Insurance
Industry must collaborate to build Community Resilience
– Collective Recovery Time Objectives
– All Hazard Assessments
– Vulnerability Assessments, Risk Management & Mitigation
– Collective Response and Recovery Planning
 Community needs to better understand of cost benefits
of mitigation
 Insurance Industry needs to reward policy holders for
taking proactive measures towards Resilience
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25. Dimensions of Resilience to consider
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Economic
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Financial
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Facilities
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Logistics
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Infrastructure
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Critical Utilities
Social
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Security
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Employees
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Housing Stock
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Supply Chain Management
Political
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Governance
Cultural
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Communications
Technological
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Equipment
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Information Technology
work with local companies to prioritize
mitigation and retrofit measures
determine center of mass for both
commerce and government
prioritize infrastructure mitigation
around these centers
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26. Summary – 3 Propositions
 Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are
inadequate for the future
 Future cities require a Resilience Code
 Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and
private sectors
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