15. U.S. Wind Industry: 2009 Wind MW Installed Total Installation in 4Q 2009: 4,041 MW Total Installation in 2009: 9,922 MW Total U.S. Installation through 4Q 2009: 35,159 MW Source: American Wind Energy Association
16. Top Ten States in 2009 Source: American Wind Energy Association
17. State by State Installations (MW) Source: American Wind Energy Association
20. U.S. Wind Manufacturing Source: AWEA, updated through 4Q 2009 Major facilities online prior to 2008 All new online in 2008 - 2009 Announced facilities
21. 300,000 MW of Proposed Wind in Interconnection Queues
22. Wind Power in Queues (MW) Iowa 14,569 Minnesota 20,011 New Mexico 14,136 North Dakota 11,493 Penn. 3,391 South Dakota 30,112 Oklahoma 14,677 Illinois 16,284 Ohio 3,683 Kansas 13,191 Wisconsin 908 Michigan 2,518 WV 1,045 New York 8,000 VT 155 Total 311,155 MW MA 492 Montana 2327 NJ 1416 Under 1000 MW 1,000 MW-8,000 MW Over 8,000 MW Missouri 2,050 Indiana 8,426 Maine 1,398 NH 396 RI 347 DE 450 MD 810 VA 820 Arkansas 210 Texas 63,504 Arizona 7,268 California 18,629 Colorado 16,602 Idaho 446 Nebraska 3,726 Nevada 3,913 Oregon 9,361 Utah 1,052 Washington 5,831 Wyoming 7,870
23. Note: AWEA does not make industry forecasts or endorse any external forecasts Other Analysts’ Projected Wind Growth Nationwide
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28. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Installed Capacity at year end 2009 is greater than 35 GW; 3 years ahead of schedule 305 GW
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30. Savings from Reduced Natural Gas Price Pressure The benefits from reduced pressure on natural gas prices across all gas users would be $150 billion (NPV), by itself exceeding the incremental cost of investing in the 20% Wind Scenario. *NPV Source: Hand et al., 2008 Billions of Dollars* 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Incremental C ost Natural Gas Savings
This conference is a living symbol of the emergence of the wind industry at a new level. I expect wind’s market share of new generating capacity will continue to be significant for years to come. And we are well-positioned strategically. We are One of the most significant single options available for dealing with climate change; A very exciting new source of manufacturing and other jobs in this country; An effective hedge against the scary volatility we are seeing in fossil fuel prices. Aside from those advantages, when you look at the positions of coal, natural gas and nuclear, each is constrained in some very significant ways, leaving wind with an open field for years to come.
Figure 12 shows that GE Energy continues to dominate the market, with 43% of the newly installed capacity in 2008 and over 48% of the over 5,000 turbines installed in 2008. The turbine market is still fairly concentrated, with the top eight companies accounting for over 98% of the new capacity added. Vestas and Siemens retained the second and third place spots in terms of installed capacity. New companies are entering the U.S. market each year, however. 2008 saw turbines installed in the U.S. by newcomers to the U.S. market Acciona WP, REPower, Fuhrlander, DeWind, and AWE.
Only the 13 largest queues are included here – other utilities may have smaller queues that are not included Source: AWEA analysis of publicly available queue data
From data for five largest queues as of March 2009, data for next 8 queues as of end of 2008, data for smaller utilities as of September 2009 Queues for smaller utilities excluded
AWEA does not make industry forecasts or endorse any external forecasts
20% Wind Scenario: Wind Energy Provides 20% of U.S. Electricity Needs by 2030 Key Issues to Examine: Does the nation have sufficient wind energy resources? What are the wind technology requirements? Does sufficient manufacturing capability exist? What are some of the key impacts? Can the electric network accommodate 20% wind? What are the environmental impacts? Is the scenario feasible? Assessment Participants: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE), and Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Black & Veatch engineering and consulting firm American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) Leading wind manufacturers and suppliers Developers and electric utilities Others in the wind industry
Considerations in the 20% Wind Scenario Wind resources of varying quality exist across the United States and offshore. Although land-based resources are less expensive to capture, they are sometimes far from demand centers. Typically, wind power must be integrated into the electric grid with other generation sources. Technology and power market innovations would make it easier to handle a variable energy resource such as wind. New transmission lines would be required to connect new wind power sources to demand centers. Transmission costs add to the cost of delivered wind energy costs, but today’s U.S. grid requires significant upgrading and expansion under almost any scenario. Wind installations will require significant amounts of land, although actual tower footprints are relatively small. Domestic manufacturing capacity might not be sufficient to accommodate near-term rapid growth in U.S. wind generation capacity; the gap may be filled by other countries.
The gas savings estimate is based on a mid-range estimate of gas price elasticity. For low to high elasticities, the estimated savings range from $86 billion to $214 billion.
The 20% Wind Scenario would require delivery of nearly 1.16 billion MWh of wind energy in 2030, altering U.S. electricity generation. In this scenario, wind would supply enough energy to displace about 50% of electric utility natural gas consumption and 18% of coal consumption by 2030. This amounts to an 11% reduction in natural gas across all industries. (Gas-fired generation would probably be displaced first, because it typically has a higher operating cost.) Talking Point : Even at 20%, wind still part of an overall portfolio
The 20% Wind Scenario assumes that transmission planning and grid operations occur on several levels—planning at the national level, reserve margin constraint planning at the NERC level, and load growth planning and operations at the balancing area (BA) level. For visual clarity, these figures display wind capacity only at the balancing area level. The balancing areas, shaded in purple, depict the amount of locally installed wind, which is assumed to meet local load levels. Generally, the first wind system installed either uses the existing grid or is accompanied by a short transmission line built to supply local loads. In later years, as the existing grid capacity is filled, additional transmission lines are built. New transmission lines built to support load in a balancing area with wind resources within that same area are not pictured in this figure; only transmission lines that cross balancing area boundaries are illustrated. The blue arrows represent wind energy transported on existing transmission lines between balancing areas. The red arrows represent new transmission lines constructed to transport wind energy between balancing areas. The arrows originate and terminate at the centroid of a balancing area and do not represent the physical location of demand centers or wind resources. The location and relative number of red or blue arrows depend on the relative cost of using existing transmission lines or building new lines. Existing Transmission Lines: 71 GW New Capacity Lines within a WinDS region: 67 GW Over 12,000 miles of new transmission will be needed to support the 20% Wind Scenario.
The fact that wind power installations can provide cost stability to a utility’s resource portfolio and bring income and tax benefits to rural communities is an obvious advantage of the technology. In addition, electricity produced with wind power does not emit harmful pollutants, generate waste or ash, or burn resources.
