CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
1. CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD
AND AGRICUTURE IN
AFRICA
L.A.OGALLO
IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS
CENTRE (ICPAC)
www.icpac.net
and Department of Meteorology,
University of Nairobi
2. IGAD CLIMATE AND
APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)
8 IGAD MEMBERS PLUS TANZANIA, RWANDA AND BURUNDI
30
Sudan Eritrea
20
Djibouti
10
Ethiopia
0
Somalia
Uganda
-1 0
-2 0
Kenya
Rwanda Burundi
-3 0 Tanzania
-1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50
3. Key issues
• Climate change and food / Agriculture
• Tomorrow’s Climate (2030; 2070, 2100, 2300,--- )
Africa (Climate change) and potential
implications
• Past / present climates and impacts on food /
Agriculture? (Natural vs Anthropogenic Climate
Change)
• Building resilient climate smart systems for
climate proofing food and agriculture in Africa
• Roles of universities and research institutions
4. Today’s climate ( Current Baselines of
the African climate)
•Most of the Continent has arid and
semi arid climates (climate key risk)
•Most livelihoods are rain dependent
•Water key stress (most water sources
from under ground, rain , rivers from glacial
mountains and wetter areas; inter territorial
rivers (Shared river basins)
11. Summary of past / present
climates in AFICA
•Warming trends
•Changes in space-time patterns
of the rainfall
•Changes in Climate extremes eg
frequency, severity, on set /
cessation dates, etc.
•Serious Data / knowledge gaps
12. IMPACTS OF PAST /
PRESENT CLIMATES on
•Food and
Agriculture (+ Livestock)
(IPCC Assessments and special
report on extremes) ; Agriculture
experts have more strengths
15. Hazards frequency Affected society: Drought,
epidemics, floods
Affected
Drought leads
Frequency
epidemics
,drought
floods
Deaths
Epidemics
Drought
16. CAUSES OF NEGATIVE
IMPACTS
•Hazards droughts, floods, and
other climate extremes real
•High level of vulnerability
•Low capacity
•Most hazards turn to Disasters
•Future change will be
devastation with out adaptation
17. CLIMATE OF TOMORROW in Africa
WILL BE DETERMINED BY:
• Population
• Economic development
• Energy production and energy
consumption
• Science and Technology
• Land use
• Policies, etc
20. Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa
Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa.
Differences between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs
24. Roles of Universities and
research institutions
(research)
•Local Knowledge of climate
and EXTREMES and their
interactions with vulnerability
and capacity factors
25. Research Gaps
•Development and diffusion of Science
and technology innovations required to
address the regional climate changes
needs and Gaps including regional
climate science / local scenarios
required for climate risk reduction
(impacts, vulnerability, mitigation and
adaptation) eg Geoengineering
• Resources for research , S & T
innovations (1% investment)
26. Climate proofing of Agriculture
– Research, knowledge, S $ T innovations
– Drought Resistant Varieties; livestock, forestry
– Intercropping and diversification
– Crop / Seed varieties
– Diversification of livelihood options
– Climate Hot spots mapping
– Integration of climate information in Food and
Agriculture Prediction and early warning
– Water , agriculture and related policies
– Disaster risk reduction and climate change
adaptation strategy
– Capacity building / Community Based
27. Other key issues
•Observations and Data base
•Local scenarios ; Monitoring, and Early Warning
Systems
•Capacity (human, technical, Computing,
Risk modelling, ---)
•Policies / implementation
•Education, awareness, networking
•Weak national Institutions
•Networking, Coordination and Collaboration
•Roles of local / indigenous knowledge
•Water availability