April 14th, 2010 panel "Disaster Strikes - How Best to Organize Relief?" at the 2010 National Convention of the National Action Network.

1. Disaster Strikes - How Best to Organize Relief?" Dr. Mick Maurer, MHA - Director, Disaster Training and Exercises - ARC/GNY - Adjunct Assistant Professor – NYU Dept. of Applied Psychology - Adjunct Professor - MCNY School of Management, MPA in Emergency and Disaster Management degree program

2. Definitions The terms ‘resilience’ and ‘vulnerability’ are opposite sides of the same coin, but both are relative terms. One has to ask what individuals, communities and systems are vulnerable or resilient to, and to what extent. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 2

3. Vulnerability Is the susceptibility to physical or emotional injury or attack In relation to hazards and disasters, vulnerability is a concept that links the relationship that people have with their environment to social forces and institutions and the cultural values that sustain and contest them. “The concept of vulnerability expresses the multidimensionality of disasters by focusing attention on the totality of relationships in a given social situation which constitute a condition that, in combination with environmental forces, produces a disaster” (Bankoff et al. 2004: 11). 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 3

4. Resilient - RESILIENCE Adj. - to jump back Marked by ability to withstand shock without permanent deformation or rupture Defined as a dynamic process that individuals exhibit positive behavioral adaptation when they encounter significant adversity, trauma, tragedy, threats, or even significant sources of stress Is the positive capacity of people to cope with stress and catastrophe 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 4

5. April 14, 2010 www.mickmaurer.com 5 Population Exposure model

6. April 14, 2010 www.mickmaurer.com 6 Natural vs. Human-Caused Disasters Source: CMHS. Psychosocial Issues for Children and Families in Disasters. A Guide for the Primary Care Physician. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Publication No. (SMA) 96-3077, 1996.

7. NYC is Vulnerable to hurricanes and nor’easters October 9, 1804 — Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 7 Landfalling NY Hurricanes

8. In 1821, when a major hurricane made a direct hit on Manhattan 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 8

9. August 23, 1893, when a terrifying Category 2 hit at night. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 9

11. The same hurricane today would cause incredible havoc.4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 10

13. A magnitude-5.5 quake in 1884 did similar damage in a wider region around New York. Another quake in this range struck in 1783.

14. In December of 1811, the largest earthquake (6.8) ever recorded in American History started. This earthquake, called the New Madrid Earthquake4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 11

16. Consequences eclipse Katrina

17. Large impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles

18. 44M people in eight-State region - (12M in high risk area)

19. Multiple jurisdictions with multiple governors

20. Significant infrastructure impacts

21. Response problems during multiple aftershocks

22. Estimated building loss -- $70B

23. Severe weather & significant evacuation issuesApproximately 12 million people at high risk St. Louis 1.5-2 Million IL IN MO KY TN Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities AR AL MS Memphis 1-1.5 Million Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com

25. Inexplicably, the city dragged its feet about adding earthquake-mitigating requirements to its building codes until the mid-1990s. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 13

27. Indian Point nuclear power plants, 24 miles north of the city, sit astride the previously unidentified intersection of two active seismic zones.

28. A 2003 analysis by The New York City Area Consortium for Earthquake Loss Mitigation put the cost of quakes at Magnitude 6 in the metro New York area at $39 billion to $197 billion.4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 14

29. But NYC Is As Vulnerable as Haiti was Much of Manhattan sits on a deep layer of soft, post-Ice Age sediment over extremely hard rock, a juxtaposition of geological extremes that bodes ominously. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 15

30. Recent incidents Only magnified The generally well-designed towers in the Manhattan's skyline most likely would survive a 6.0, but the unreinforced masonry townhouses where most residents live might not fare as well. A 1989 study estimated that a quake would cause more than130 simultaneous blazes, which could put the fire department under severe strain. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 16

31. New York City Risks & Probability Matrix Severity of Outcome All Level I and II Hurricane in Metro NYC High Hurricane in Atlantic/Gulf Coast Indian Point Power Plant Earthquake in NYC Pandemic Flu Suicide Bombing Dirty Bomb Transportation Incident Last 25 years: 4 Catastrophic and 10 Major Disasters Power Outage Regional floods Level III Large fire Transportation Incident Building Collapse Building Fires Water main breaks Evacuation orders Level IV and V 3,000/yr. Low Low High Probability

32. In Greater New York WE RESPOND TO 3,000 LOCAL DISASTERS EACH YEAR 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 18

33. CRANE COLLAPSES March & May 2008 and March 2010 4/14/2010 19 http://mickmaurer.com

34. FLIGHT 1549 January 2009 4/14/2010 20 http://mickmaurer.com

35. Terrorism Trends London, U.K. (2005) Madrid, Spain (2004) Belsan, Russia (2004) Toronto, Canada (2006) Possible bomb attack plan on Canadian soil Mumbai, India (2006) London, U.K. (2006) 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 21

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37. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 23 September 11, 2001

38. And Everyday transit disruptions 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 24

39. But Don’t wait for the Lone Ranger and Tonto! Or for the Buffalo Soldiers to ride to the Rescue. You are on your own and need Five days food and water for every family member 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 25

40. NYC First responders have their role All Disasters are Local – NY Home Rule 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 26

41. The State and Feds have their support role 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 27 NY State Guard

42. But the populace has a bigger role Becoming Resilient 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 28

43. Youth and Adults Prepared 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 29

44. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 30

45. Lifesaving Courses ARC/GNY trains more than 125,000 people annually in Lifesaving Skills including CPR, First Aid, AED, Care Giving and Aquatics. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 31

46. Preparedness Training & Information ARC/GNY provides emergency preparedness training to more than 140,000 people per year. 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 32

48. Safety Flashlights

49. Emergency Radios

50. Blankets

51. First Aid Kits

52. Manuals

53. And More!4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 33

54. Training with Public and Partner Groups Human Services Council and ARC/GNY Table Top Exercise 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 34

55. Resiliency of the populace is the key to Preparedness 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 35

56. Thank you Contact: maurerm@nyredcross.org mickmaurer@nyu.edu mmaurer@mcny.edu Webpages: http://mickmaurer.com http://disaster-exercises.typepad.com/my-blog/ 4/14/2010 http://mickmaurer.com 36