Global Warming?

GLOBAL WARMING?
BY: Ryan S. Welch
1LT, AR, TXARNG

OUTLINE
 What is the normal or average Earth
Temperature?
 Is the Earth Warming?
 Is there a scientific consensus on
Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming?
 Is Carbon Dioxide (CO2) a pollutant?
 Can anthropogenic CO2 production cause a
“runaway greenhouse gas” affect?

OUTLINE
 Do warmer temperatures cause more
hurricanes?
 Do warmer temperatures cause more human
deaths than cooler temperatures?
 Are the Earth’s icecaps and glaciers melting
causing an accelerated sea level rise which
will flood coastal cities and islands?
 Are Polar Bears running out of habitat?

What is the normal or average
Earth Temperature?

Earth Temperature?
 It depends on how far back you go. The 20th century
mean global temperature is 12.9 degrees Celsius. For
the US (below) it is slightly higher.

Earth Temperature?
 Here is the 1000 year average and we are currently about .5
degrees warmer mostly because the Earth has warmed
since the Little Ice Age which dominates this period. But
the Earth is not currently as warm (by 1.5 degrees) as it
was during the Medieval Warm Period.

Earth Temperature?
 Here is the 3000 year average of the Sargasso Sea surface
temperature of 23 degrees Celsius. Notice that our
current temperature is below the average for this period.

Earth Temperature?
 Here is the 11,000 year average of around 15 degrees
Celsius which is 2 degrees warmer than now.

Earth Temperature?
 Here is the 450,000 year temperature record with an
average below 6 degrees Celsius. That is 7 degrees
cooler, but that includes the four Ice Ages.

Earth Temperature?
 Here is the 600 million year temperature record showing a
22 degree Celsius cap between Glacial periods. Notice
that is 9 degrees warmer than it is now.

Earth Temperature?
 The Bottom Line:
 There is no “normal temperature.” The
Earth’s temperature is always changing.
 In no record of the Earth’s temperature are
there any flat stable periods.
 For the vast majority of the Earth’s history it
has been significantly warmer than it is now.

Is the Earth Warming?
 Satellite data goes back 29 years showing global
cooling since a warming spike during 1998.

 The Earth’s cooling is in contrast with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) predictions of steady warming

 This is the same graph showing US surface temperatures
but the one the NOAA/IPCC uses is “adjusted” upwards.

 The graph on the right is from the IPCC but both
the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming
period have been “smoothed” out to a nearly
straight line so it shows only the recent warming.

 The Earth has been cooling significantly since 2002
according to satellite and land based records.

 No, the Earth’s has been cooling since 1998.
 Nearly all of the warming that has occurred in
this century is a continuance of the recovery
from the Little Ice Age.

Is there a scientific consensus on
Anthropogenic Global Warming?

 Most scientists do not agree with the CO2 global
warming premise! In the United States alone more
than 31,072 scientists have signed a petition
rejecting Anthropogenic Global Warming and the
Kyoto global warming agreement (see below) and
of these, 9,021 have PhDs, including Dr. Edward
Teller.

 Dr. Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University UK,
conducted a search of peer-reviewed literature on the ISI Web of
Science database between 1993 and 2003. He found that out of
1,117 documents using the term “global climate change” only 13 -
a mere 1% - explicitly endorse, and fewer than 1/3 implicitly
endorsed the “consensus” of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

 Over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe
challenged man-made global warming claims made by the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This is documented
in the 231-page U.S. Senate Minority Report.

 An analysis released in September
2007 on the IPCC scientific review
process by climate data analyst John
McLean, revealed that the UN
IPCC peer-review process is
“an illusion.”
 Among the 23 independent reviewers
just 4 explicitly endorsed the chapter
with its hypothesis that stated “it is
very highly likely that greenhouse gas
forcing has been the dominant cause of
the observed global warming over the
last 50 years."

 No, there is no consensus on Anthropogenic
Global Warming.
 There is a vast amount of peer-reviewed scientific
studies which refute and debunk nearly every
anthropogenic global warming claim.
 Consensus, even if there was such a thing, proves
nothing. Science is proved by reproducible
experimentations or provable formulas of which
there are none for AGW.

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 Carbon Dioxide is a naturally
occurring atmospheric trace
gas accounting for only 0.04%
of atmosphere.
 CO2 is an essential part of
Respiration and
Photosynthesis. That means it
is essential to life on earth
and not a pollutant.
Nitrogen 78%
Oxygen 21%
Argon 0.9%
Carbon Dioxide 0.04%

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 CO2 is not accumulating
in the atmosphere as fast
as projected.
 98% of all CO2 that is
produced by human
activity is absorbed by
plants and the oceans.

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 The Earth’s average CO2
level for the last 600
Million years is over 2500
parts per million (ppm).
 The Earth’s current CO2
concentration level is only
about 385 ppm.
 Plant growth shuts down
below 200 ppm.

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 As CO2 levels rise plant
growth increases.
 The recommended CO2
concentration for
greenhouses is between
1000-1300 ppm.

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 97% of CO2 in the earth's
atmosphere comes from nature,
not from man.
 Volcanoes, oceans, swamps, rice
paddies, fallen leaves, and even
insects and bacteria produce
carbon dioxide, as well as
methane.
 Termites alone emit ten times
more CO2 than all the factories
and automobiles in the world.

Is CO2 a pollutant?
 No, CO2 is a naturally occurring trace gas
essential for life on Earth.
 For most of the last 6 million years of Earth’s
history there have been much higher levels of CO2
in the atmosphere and life thrived.
 There is a negligible correlation between further
increases atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature
which are overwhelmed by natural processes and
inputs.
 Plant growth and thus humanity would benefit
from increased levels of atmospheric CO2.

Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production
cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” effect?

 Carbon Dioxide has the lowest solar energy absorption of all
the atmospheric greenhouse gasses.
 CO2 and H2O overlap and cannot both absorb the same energy.

 CO2 only accounts
for 3.618% of all
warming attributed to
greenhouse gasses.
 Human activities
account for only 3%
of the atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide.

 The effect of Carbon Dioxide
on temperature is
logarithmic and thus climate
sensitivity decreases with
increasing concentration.
 Since the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution,
increased atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide has increased the
temperature in the
atmosphere by 0.1 degree.

 Pre-industrial Carbon Dioxide
levels are a near saturation
levels for greenhouse effect.
 If atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
levels reached 1000 ppm would
only account for a 0.4 degree
increase in temperature.
 At the current rate of 2 ppm
every year it would take 307
years to achieve 1000 ppm.

 In four of five periods
since 1860 Carbon
Dioxide levels and
temperature trends go in
opposite directions.
 There is no cause and
effect between Carbon
Dioxide level increase and
temperature increase.

 Temperature is not well
correlated with
Anthropogenic CO2 but
it is well correlated
with Solar Activity.
 The Sun affects Global
Temperature more
than atmospheric CO2.

cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” affect?
 All climate models
assume that relative
humidity remains
approximately constant
with global warming
 Data shows a 21% drop
of relative humidity at
9 km altitude where the
“greenhouse effect” is
supposed to happen.

 Water vapor is supposed to
cause a huge positive feedback
to atmospheric warming (hence
the basis of the “runaway
greenhouse gas” effect).
 But water vapor reduces the
Optical Depth and instead is a
negative feedback to warming.
 Water vapor has offset 78% of
the greenhouse effect of CO2
change in the last 60 years.

 This chart from the IPCC shows that the 3% of anthropogenic
CO2 amounts to a total man made contribution of only 11.5 ppm
of the total 385 ppm.
 98.5% of all CO2 produced is reabsorbed by the oceans. Some
studies show that oceans can absorb all the CO2 humans could
ever produce and that oceanic warming regulates atmospheric
CO2.

 The Earth has been cooling significantly since 2002
while CO2 levels have risen.

 Since 1998 the lower Troposphere (where the
“Greenhouse Effect” is supposed to happen) has also
been cooling according to satellite readings (again with
CO2 levels rising).

 The climate models used by the IPCC do not
agree with observations.

 In fact there is none of the “greenhouse gas”
warming predicted instead there is cooling.

 During the Ordovician Period 460 million years ago CO2
concentrations were 4400 ppm while temperatures then
were about the same as they are today.

 NO, the climate models used to predict a “runaway
greenhouse gas” effect have been completely
discredited.
 Human activity only adds 3% to a trace gas (CO2),
that is only 0.04% of the atmosphere and that has a
minuscule effect on temperatures of which water
vapor offsets 78%.
 There is no credible empirical data to support
Anthropogenic Global Warming.
 The Sun is the primary force in global temperatures.

Do warmer temperatures cause
more hurricanes?

more hurricanes?
 There are actually fewer
hurricanes now compared to
the past.
 Any increase in major
hurricanes is primarily due to
Global Cooling which
changes the Atlantic Ocean
Thermohaline Circulation
(THC) otherwise known as
the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO).

more hurricanes?
 From 1945-1969 when
the globe was cooling
there were 80 major
hurricanes.
 From 1970-1994 when
the globe was warming
there were only 38
major hurricanes
although CO2 levels
were 18% higher.

more hurricanes?
 From the early 1930’s
through 1965 the earth
was primarily cooling so
you have a higher
number of hurricanes.
 From the early 1970’s to
1998 the earth was
warming so you have a
lower frequency of
hurricanes while CO2
levels have risen from
310 ppm to 385 ppm.

more hurricanes?
 Only 7 hurricanes hit the east coast from 1966-2008 (43 years)
compared to 24 hurricanes from 1923-1965 (43 years). During
this time CO2 levels rose from 310 ppm to 385 ppm.

more hurricanes?
 NO, cooling temperatures cause more
hurricanes by affecting the THC/AMO and by
ocean/atmosphere temperature differentials.
 The rise in CO2 has no relation to any increase
in hurricane numbers or strength.
 Remember Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike have
all happened since 2002 when the earth has been
cooling .

Do warmer temperatures cause more
human deaths than cooler temperatures?

 Based on data from the Compressed Mortality File for
the United States extreme cold causes nearly double
the deaths that extreme heat causes.

 In fact US weather related deaths have fallen
since the 1970s.

 Hardiness zones have shifted
northward.
 30° N- 110 km northward shift
 The improvement in growing
conditions resulting from this
northward shift in annual
average minimum temperature
caused an increase in
agricultural productivity.

 Agricultural production in these six states rose 34% from
1990 to 2004.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Alabama1996=1
Kansas
Minnesota
Georgia
Missouri
Mississippi
North Carolina
1990
Average 34% increase in
agricultural productivity
from 1990 to 2004

 During Earth’s cold
periods much of the
land area was covered
with either Ice or
desert.
 In Earth’s warm
periods much of the
land area is covered
with either grassland or
forests.

 No, warm conditions globally cause less
human deaths than cold conditions.
 Warming Earth temperatures increase food
production and decrease desertification.
 Warmer Temperatures cause less storm
related human deaths.

Are the Earth’s icecaps and glaciers
melting causing an accelerated sea level rise
which will flood coastal cities and islands?

 Glacial melt began in the
1820s as the Earth came
out of the Little Ice Age.
 Glacial melt began before
Hydrocarbon Use and has
not accelerated, instead
many Glaciers are now
advancing (getting
bigger).

 This is a partial list of Glaciers that
are now growing.
 NORWAY: Alfo, Briksdal, Nigards, Enga,
Hardangerjakulen, Hanse, and Jostefonn
Glaciers
 CANADA: Helm and Place Glaciers
 FRANCE: Mt. Blanc Glacier
 ECUADOR: Antizana 15 Alpha Glacier
 SWITZERLAND: Silvretta Glacier
 KIRGHIZTAN: Abramov Glacier
 RUSSIA: Maali Glacier
 GREENLAND: Icecap Thickening
 NEW ZELAND: All 48 Glaciers
 ARGENTINA: Perito Moreno Glacier
 CHILE: Pio XI Glacier
 UNITED STATES: St. Helens, Rainier,
Shuksan, Shasta, Glacier Park, McKinley,
Hubbard, Nisqually, Tsaa, and Colorado’s
Rocky Mountain Park Glaciers (over 100).

 Global Sea Ice Extent is
well within the historic
rage.
 The current rise of sea
levels (3.2 cm every 10
years) has recently
slowed dramatically
which coincides with
global cooling.

 The Tsaa Glacier in
Alaska has grown 1/3
of a mile in two years
and is still growing.
 These are pictures of
the Tsaa Glacier in Icy
Bay, Alaska in July
2005 (top)and June
2007 (bottom).

 The Greenland’s Icecap
of is actually growing in
total mass.
 The averaged increase is
about 5.4 cm/year.

 The studied 72% (the rest
cannot be measured by
satellites) of the
Antarctic Icecap is
gaining mass at the
average rate of 27-29
Gigatons per year.
 This alone is enough to
reduce sea level rise by
0.08 mm per year.

 NO, most of the world’s glaciers are now
growing including the Icecaps on
Greenland and Antarctica.
 Sea level rise is currently only 3.2 cm every
10 years, most of that is due to thermal
expansion, not from melting Ice and it has
recently slowed.

Are Polar Bears running out of
habitat?

habitat?
 Studies forecasting long term
decline in Polar Bear populations
were based on substantial sea ice
reductions which are not happening.
 The audited forecasts of Polar Bear
populations found that the Amstrup et
al. applied only 15% of relevant
forecasting principals while Hinter et
al applied only 10%. Also 46% of
the principals were clearly
contravened and another 23% were
apparently contravened. As a
consequence their forecasts are
unscientific and of no consequence.

habitat?
 Polar Bears are aquatic
mammals and are
capable of swimming for
over 60 miles.
 Polar Bears adjust their
range and feeding
habits to the changes in
climate just as they have
done for over 130,000
years.

 Today there are over 25
thousand polar bears,
compared to 8–10 thousand
40 years ago and only 5,000
in 1940 (due to hunting).
 Eleven of the 13 polar
bear groups in Canada
today are stable or
increasing. The two that
are decreasing are in an area
where the climate has
gotten colder!
habitat?

habitat?
 Polar bears as a species have
existed for over 130 thousand
years. They have survived
many periods of much
warmer temperatures, some
lasting thousands of years.
 They survived the Medieval
Warm Period a thousand
years ago, when the Vikings
settled both Iceland and
Greenland and Greenland was
even warm enough to support
agriculture (it is too cold
now).

habitat?
 Six thousand years ago the earth's climate was much warmer
than now, and the polar bears survived. Ten thousand years
ago the earth's climate was a whopping six degrees C (11
degrees F) warmer than now, and the bears survived.
 A Canadian polar bear expert, Mitch Taylor, says, "They are
not going extinct, or even appear to be affected."

habitat?
 No, Polar Bears are adaptable and thriving.
 The Northern sea ice area shows no significant
decrease with satellite monitoring .
 The Earth is no longer warming, and even if it was
warming, the growing Polar Bear population would
survive just as it has all other warming periods.

Global Warming?

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