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The Energy Scenario in India- Placing Nuke in Context Ashwini Chitnis & Ashwin Gambhir  Prayas (Energy Group), Pune NUCLEAR ENERGY: Examining the impacts, conflicts and controversies Sambhavnaa: The Institute of Public Policy & Politics Dec 17-19, 2011, Palampur, HP
About Prayas Energy Group (PEG) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outline of discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In comparison US,EU and China spend ~ 2% of GDP on fossil imports
Power Sector Status ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Break-up of Installed Generation Capacity of 210 GW (2010-11)  Break-up of Actual Generation of 900 TWh (2009-10)
Energy & Poor
Electricity–HDI linkage: International Experience ,[object Object]
Households by electricity use (kWh/month) Very highly skewed distribution! Only 10% Households have monthly electricity bills more than ~ Rs 300. Source: Prayas analysis of State ERC orders
Electricity and Poor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demand growth estimates / forecasts
Power Sector Demand Forecast ,[object Object],117 GW of thermal projects (mainly coal) under construction  (as on 16 th  Nov 2010) GW TWh 2009-10  Generation 186 914 2020 Demand Projection World Bank Low Carbon report 426 2020 Mckinsey Report; Ref case   1870 CSE Report; BAU   1751 CEA 17th EPS projection   1914   IEP (8% growth) 425 2118
Electricity Demand Projection – IEP, PC Assumes - 63 GW from nuclear power and 150 GW from hydro power in 2031-32 Addition of ~185 GW of Base Load Thermal capacity *Source Integrated Energy Policy (PC, GoI) 2006, numbers are indicative
Supply options to meet the increasing demand
Electricity – Options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Role of renewable energy
RE potential and prices ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The flip side of RE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RE principles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Large Solar push in India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DRE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Role of Energy efficiency
Why energy efficiency ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost of energy  efficiency is much lower than the cost of another green option of renewable energy  Source: LBNL and RAP
Change Nature of Discourse on EE EE should be seen as indispensable as power plants, in avoiding shortages, facilitating growth and maintaining competitiveness. [Resource constraints, Energy security, local social and environmental issues] 70% of infrastructure that will be in place by 2030 – is still to be built ! Numbers are only indicative (to show implications of consideration).
Why energy efficient appliances ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Residential Electricity Consumption distribution for 2008.  Source: Prayas Energy group study, 2009
Urgency for promoting super efficient appliances Increasing stock of appliances due to booming sales caused by consistent high economic growth Super efficient appliances (SEA), 40-70% more efficient than the current stock, are commercially available in international markets RAC: Room air-conditioners Large, permanent savings possible if urgent steps are taken to ensure new appliances are super-efficient
Role of Nuclear
Placing Nuke in context ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Concluding remarks
Development, Energy, and Climate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reduce Energy Requirement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Looking beyond 2020 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Important linkages, are quite flexible ,[object Object],[object Object],Very little discussion about the first link of development  (Techno-fix v/s political-economy solution).  Pro-people policies may lead to faster reduction in poverty than BAU economic growth. 3E (equity - environment - economy approach)
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THANK YOU Prayas Energy Group www.prayaspune.org/peg ashwini [at] prayaspune [dot] org ashwin [at] prayaspune [dot] org

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The Energy Scenario in India- Placing Nuke in Context

  • 1. The Energy Scenario in India- Placing Nuke in Context Ashwini Chitnis & Ashwin Gambhir Prayas (Energy Group), Pune NUCLEAR ENERGY: Examining the impacts, conflicts and controversies Sambhavnaa: The Institute of Public Policy & Politics Dec 17-19, 2011, Palampur, HP
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  • 4. In comparison US,EU and China spend ~ 2% of GDP on fossil imports
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  • 6. Break-up of Installed Generation Capacity of 210 GW (2010-11) Break-up of Actual Generation of 900 TWh (2009-10)
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  • 9. Households by electricity use (kWh/month) Very highly skewed distribution! Only 10% Households have monthly electricity bills more than ~ Rs 300. Source: Prayas analysis of State ERC orders
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  • 11. Demand growth estimates / forecasts
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  • 13. Electricity Demand Projection – IEP, PC Assumes - 63 GW from nuclear power and 150 GW from hydro power in 2031-32 Addition of ~185 GW of Base Load Thermal capacity *Source Integrated Energy Policy (PC, GoI) 2006, numbers are indicative
  • 14. Supply options to meet the increasing demand
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  • 22. Role of Energy efficiency
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  • 24. Change Nature of Discourse on EE EE should be seen as indispensable as power plants, in avoiding shortages, facilitating growth and maintaining competitiveness. [Resource constraints, Energy security, local social and environmental issues] 70% of infrastructure that will be in place by 2030 – is still to be built ! Numbers are only indicative (to show implications of consideration).
  • 25.
  • 26. Urgency for promoting super efficient appliances Increasing stock of appliances due to booming sales caused by consistent high economic growth Super efficient appliances (SEA), 40-70% more efficient than the current stock, are commercially available in international markets RAC: Room air-conditioners Large, permanent savings possible if urgent steps are taken to ensure new appliances are super-efficient
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  • 36. THANK YOU Prayas Energy Group www.prayaspune.org/peg ashwini [at] prayaspune [dot] org ashwin [at] prayaspune [dot] org

Editor's Notes

  1. New infrastructure will be with us for 100 years How cities and transportation networks are organized Buildings, power plants, roads, factories, etc. It is an opportunity that India can leap-frog and shape its energy future Limits on pace of adding power plants Between 2027-32 we need to add 40,000 MW / year Siting of power plants is already vey difficult Environmental, displacement, land and water concerns Resource constraints Increased import dependence even of coal (no coal plan addition possible after 2030 on domestic coal) Global environmental constraints 