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International Finance
           International Economics



Balance of Payments

              Chapter 10


                                1
Content
I. Balance of payment
II. Double-entry accounting
III. International payment process
IV. Balance of Payments Structure
  a. Current Account
  b. Capital and Financial Account
V. U.S. Balance of Payments
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
                                          2
a. Current account deficit problem
      b . Continue to run current account deficit?
      c. Net Foreign Investment and the Current
Account Balance
      d. Business Cycles, Economic Growth, and the
Current Account
VII. Global saving glut
VIII. Balance of International Indebtedness
      a. United Stated as a Debtor Nation
IX. Summary
                                                     3
I. Balance of Payments

o Definition
     Balance of payments is a record of the
  economic transactions between the residents of one
  country and the rest of the word.


     An international transaction is an exchange of
  goods, services or assets between businesses,
  individuals, and governments of one country and those
  of another.
                                                       4
II. Double-Entry Accounting
o All transaction are either credit or debit transaction.

o Credit transaction – receipt of payment from
  foreigner.
   •   merchandise exports
   •   transportation & travel receipts
   •   Income received from investments abroad
   •   gifts received from foreign residents
   •   Aid received from foreign governments
   •   investment in U.S. by overseas residents
                                                            5
II. Double-Entry Accounting
o Debit transactions - leads to payments to foreigners.
   • Merchandise imports

   • Transportation and travel expenditures

   • Income paid on investments of foreigners

   • Gifts to foreign residents

   • Aid given by the U.S government

   • Overseas investments by U.S residents


                                                          6
III. International Payments Process
              210,000 won TV




                                      7
IV. Balance of Payment Structure
       a. Current account
o Current account - refers to the monetary value of
   international flows associated with transactions in
   goods, services, income flows and unilateral transfers.

o Merchandise trade balance – includes all goods that
   U.S. exports (Credit) or imports (Debit).
   o surplus (positive balance) implies exports > imports
   o deficit (negative balance) implies imports > exports

                                                             8
IV. Balance of Payment Structure

o Goods and services balance – added services to the
   merchandise trade balance

o Unilateral transfers – include transfers of goods &
   services (gifts in kind) or financial assets (money gifts)
   between the U.S. and the rest of the world.




                                                            9
IV. Balance of Payment Structure
     b. Capital and Financial Account

o Capital and Financial Account– all international
   purchases and sales of real estate, corporate stocks
   and bonds, government securities and commercial
   bank deposits.




                                                          10
IV. Balance of Payment Structure
o examples:

   •   Direct investment – residents of one country acquire 10%
       or more of business in another country.
   •   Securities – private sector purchases of short-and long-term
       debt securities.
   •   Bank claims – loans, overseas
       deposits, acceptances, foreign commercial paper.
   •   Bank liabilities – demand deposits, NOW
       accounts, savings deposits, CDs.

o Official settlements transactions – movement of financial
  assets among official holders such as the U.S Fed and Bank of
  England.
                                                                  11
V. U.S. Balance of Payments - 2006
                                                       (Billions of Dollars)

oCurrent Account:
  Merchandise trade balance                        -$838.3
 Exports                                1,023.1
 Imports                               - 1,862.4

 Services balance                                   79.8
    Travel and transportation, net     -10.6
    Military transactions, net         -14.0
    Royalties and license fees , net    35.9
    Other services, net                 68.5

 Goods and Services balance                        -758.5



                                                                        12
V. U.S. Balance of Payments - 2006
                                                      (Billions of Dollars)

  Income Balance                                   36.6
   Investment income, net                  43.1
   Compensation of employees, net          -6.5
  Unilateral transfers balance                     -89.6
   U.S Government grants                   -27.2
   U.S Government pensions                 -6.5
   Private remittances                     -55.9
Current account balance                            -811.5
oCapital and Financial Account
  Capital account transactions, net        -$3.9
  Financial account transactions, net      833.4
  Statistical discrepancy                  -18.0
Balance on capital and financial account           811.5
                                                                       13
V. U.S. Balance of Payments 1980- 2006
                                         (Billions of Dollars)




o Trade deficits can decrease value of dollar and
  decreasing U.S. purchasing power abroad.
o Trade deficits can also decrease employment in domestic
  industries but are offset by capital inflows generating
  employment in other industries
                                                           14
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
o Current account and capital & financial account are not
  related, when one is in surplus the other must be in
  deficit.

o Current account surplus means an excess of exports
  over imports of goods and services, investment income
  and unilateral transfers.

o Current account deficit implies an excess of imports
  over exports of goods and services, investment income
  and unilateral transfers.
                                                            15
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
        a. Current Account Deficit a Problem

o A current account deficit has little to do with foreign trade
  practices or any inherent inability of a country to sell goods
  in world market.


o Current account deficits are not efficiently reversed by trade
  policies that attempt to alter the levels of import or exports.


o Resulting debt is less problematic if funds are used for
  investment spending rather than consumption spending.


                                                                    16
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
         b. Continuous to run Current Account Deficit?

o no economic reason why current account deficit cannot
   continue indefinitely.
o From 1820-1875, the U.S ran current account deficits
   almost continuously.
o Two principles to reduce the deficit, first U.S has an
   interest in polices that stimulate for foreign growth and
   second, increased national saving than through reduced
   domestic investment
                                                               17
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
          c. Net Foreign Investment and the Current
          Account Balance
o current account surplus => excess of exports over imports =>
  net supplier of funds (lender) => improves net foreign
  investment position
o current account deficit => excess of imports over exports =>
  net demander of funds from abroad=> decline in net foreign
  investment position
o net borrowing:
    (G - T) + (I – S) = Current Account Deficit
    Government Private Private   (net borrowing)
       Deficit Investment Saving                                 18
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
           d. Business Cycles, Current Account &
           Economic Growth

o Business cycles => if rapid growth and employment
  => growing trade and current account deficits. And if
  slow output and employment growth => growing
  surpluses.

o short run: recession => current account surplus
  • Saving and investment tend to fall.
  • imports tend to fall with overall consumption and
     investment demand.

                                                        19
VI. Current account deficit and surplus
            d. Current Account & Economic Growth
o long run: rapid economic growth leads to current
  account deficits, whereas those with weaker economic
  growth have long-run current account surpluses.




                                                         20
VII. Global saving glut
o Excess global savings hold interest rate down
  which allowed U.S. borrowing from:
  • corporate profits in Japan
  • savings greater than investment in China or
    China’s investment rate was the world’s highest
    by far, but its saving rate was even greater.
  • oil profits in the Saudi Arabia and Russia

o Surge in savings, lowered interest rates have
  the potential to boost productivity and creates
  the problem of Fed’s control of economy.
                                                      21
VII. Global saving glut

o U.S. absorbed an estimated 75% of excess
  world supply of savings in 2006


o Concern: reduction in such investment in the
  U.S. will cause significant depreciation in the
  dollar and a substantial increase in interest
  rates
                                                    22
VIII. Balance of international indebtedness
 o Definition – a statment that summarizes a country's stock of
   assets and liabilities against the rest of the world at a fixed point
   in time.

 o The balance of international indebtedness looks at short-and
   long-term investment positions of both private and goverment
   sectors of the economy.

 o Indicates sensitive items, such as short term debt held by
   foreigners which could be liquidated quickly, straining finances


                                                                       23
VIII. Balance of international indebtedness




                                         24
VIII. Balance of international indebtedness
           a. U.S. as Debtor Nation

 o net creditor – U.S. claims on foreigners exceed
    foreign claims on U.S.
 o net debtor – foreign claims on U.S. exceed U.S.
    claims on foreigners

 o reasons U.S. is net debtor: foreign investors placed
    more funds in the U.S. because of economic growth
    and political stability
                                                          25
Chapter 10 balance of payment

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Chapter 10 balance of payment

  • 1. International Finance International Economics Balance of Payments Chapter 10 1
  • 2. Content I. Balance of payment II. Double-entry accounting III. International payment process IV. Balance of Payments Structure a. Current Account b. Capital and Financial Account V. U.S. Balance of Payments VI. Current account deficit and surplus 2
  • 3. a. Current account deficit problem b . Continue to run current account deficit? c. Net Foreign Investment and the Current Account Balance d. Business Cycles, Economic Growth, and the Current Account VII. Global saving glut VIII. Balance of International Indebtedness a. United Stated as a Debtor Nation IX. Summary 3
  • 4. I. Balance of Payments o Definition Balance of payments is a record of the economic transactions between the residents of one country and the rest of the word. An international transaction is an exchange of goods, services or assets between businesses, individuals, and governments of one country and those of another. 4
  • 5. II. Double-Entry Accounting o All transaction are either credit or debit transaction. o Credit transaction – receipt of payment from foreigner. • merchandise exports • transportation & travel receipts • Income received from investments abroad • gifts received from foreign residents • Aid received from foreign governments • investment in U.S. by overseas residents 5
  • 6. II. Double-Entry Accounting o Debit transactions - leads to payments to foreigners. • Merchandise imports • Transportation and travel expenditures • Income paid on investments of foreigners • Gifts to foreign residents • Aid given by the U.S government • Overseas investments by U.S residents 6
  • 7. III. International Payments Process 210,000 won TV 7
  • 8. IV. Balance of Payment Structure a. Current account o Current account - refers to the monetary value of international flows associated with transactions in goods, services, income flows and unilateral transfers. o Merchandise trade balance – includes all goods that U.S. exports (Credit) or imports (Debit). o surplus (positive balance) implies exports > imports o deficit (negative balance) implies imports > exports 8
  • 9. IV. Balance of Payment Structure o Goods and services balance – added services to the merchandise trade balance o Unilateral transfers – include transfers of goods & services (gifts in kind) or financial assets (money gifts) between the U.S. and the rest of the world. 9
  • 10. IV. Balance of Payment Structure b. Capital and Financial Account o Capital and Financial Account– all international purchases and sales of real estate, corporate stocks and bonds, government securities and commercial bank deposits. 10
  • 11. IV. Balance of Payment Structure o examples: • Direct investment – residents of one country acquire 10% or more of business in another country. • Securities – private sector purchases of short-and long-term debt securities. • Bank claims – loans, overseas deposits, acceptances, foreign commercial paper. • Bank liabilities – demand deposits, NOW accounts, savings deposits, CDs. o Official settlements transactions – movement of financial assets among official holders such as the U.S Fed and Bank of England. 11
  • 12. V. U.S. Balance of Payments - 2006 (Billions of Dollars) oCurrent Account: Merchandise trade balance -$838.3 Exports 1,023.1 Imports - 1,862.4 Services balance 79.8 Travel and transportation, net -10.6 Military transactions, net -14.0 Royalties and license fees , net 35.9 Other services, net 68.5 Goods and Services balance -758.5 12
  • 13. V. U.S. Balance of Payments - 2006 (Billions of Dollars) Income Balance 36.6 Investment income, net 43.1 Compensation of employees, net -6.5 Unilateral transfers balance -89.6 U.S Government grants -27.2 U.S Government pensions -6.5 Private remittances -55.9 Current account balance -811.5 oCapital and Financial Account Capital account transactions, net -$3.9 Financial account transactions, net 833.4 Statistical discrepancy -18.0 Balance on capital and financial account 811.5 13
  • 14. V. U.S. Balance of Payments 1980- 2006 (Billions of Dollars) o Trade deficits can decrease value of dollar and decreasing U.S. purchasing power abroad. o Trade deficits can also decrease employment in domestic industries but are offset by capital inflows generating employment in other industries 14
  • 15. VI. Current account deficit and surplus o Current account and capital & financial account are not related, when one is in surplus the other must be in deficit. o Current account surplus means an excess of exports over imports of goods and services, investment income and unilateral transfers. o Current account deficit implies an excess of imports over exports of goods and services, investment income and unilateral transfers. 15
  • 16. VI. Current account deficit and surplus a. Current Account Deficit a Problem o A current account deficit has little to do with foreign trade practices or any inherent inability of a country to sell goods in world market. o Current account deficits are not efficiently reversed by trade policies that attempt to alter the levels of import or exports. o Resulting debt is less problematic if funds are used for investment spending rather than consumption spending. 16
  • 17. VI. Current account deficit and surplus b. Continuous to run Current Account Deficit? o no economic reason why current account deficit cannot continue indefinitely. o From 1820-1875, the U.S ran current account deficits almost continuously. o Two principles to reduce the deficit, first U.S has an interest in polices that stimulate for foreign growth and second, increased national saving than through reduced domestic investment 17
  • 18. VI. Current account deficit and surplus c. Net Foreign Investment and the Current Account Balance o current account surplus => excess of exports over imports => net supplier of funds (lender) => improves net foreign investment position o current account deficit => excess of imports over exports => net demander of funds from abroad=> decline in net foreign investment position o net borrowing: (G - T) + (I – S) = Current Account Deficit Government Private Private (net borrowing) Deficit Investment Saving 18
  • 19. VI. Current account deficit and surplus d. Business Cycles, Current Account & Economic Growth o Business cycles => if rapid growth and employment => growing trade and current account deficits. And if slow output and employment growth => growing surpluses. o short run: recession => current account surplus • Saving and investment tend to fall. • imports tend to fall with overall consumption and investment demand. 19
  • 20. VI. Current account deficit and surplus d. Current Account & Economic Growth o long run: rapid economic growth leads to current account deficits, whereas those with weaker economic growth have long-run current account surpluses. 20
  • 21. VII. Global saving glut o Excess global savings hold interest rate down which allowed U.S. borrowing from: • corporate profits in Japan • savings greater than investment in China or China’s investment rate was the world’s highest by far, but its saving rate was even greater. • oil profits in the Saudi Arabia and Russia o Surge in savings, lowered interest rates have the potential to boost productivity and creates the problem of Fed’s control of economy. 21
  • 22. VII. Global saving glut o U.S. absorbed an estimated 75% of excess world supply of savings in 2006 o Concern: reduction in such investment in the U.S. will cause significant depreciation in the dollar and a substantial increase in interest rates 22
  • 23. VIII. Balance of international indebtedness o Definition – a statment that summarizes a country's stock of assets and liabilities against the rest of the world at a fixed point in time. o The balance of international indebtedness looks at short-and long-term investment positions of both private and goverment sectors of the economy. o Indicates sensitive items, such as short term debt held by foreigners which could be liquidated quickly, straining finances 23
  • 24. VIII. Balance of international indebtedness 24
  • 25. VIII. Balance of international indebtedness a. U.S. as Debtor Nation o net creditor – U.S. claims on foreigners exceed foreign claims on U.S. o net debtor – foreign claims on U.S. exceed U.S. claims on foreigners o reasons U.S. is net debtor: foreign investors placed more funds in the U.S. because of economic growth and political stability 25