A look at the macro-drivers of the Chinese economy and the role graphite plays. A focus on how the government have restricted mining and minerals activities in the past and whether the same is on the horizon for flake and amorphous graphite supply.

1. Industrial China in 2013 and graphite’s role
China Graphite Field Trip & Briefing 2013
Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data – smoores@indmin.com
indmin.com/Data

2. 1. China’s main drivers
2. Macro changes to mining in China
3. Flake‐graphite changes in China
4. The future

3. Shanghai 1990s

4. Shanghai 2010s

5. • Growth <8% = norm
• China still a huge country in the midst of
industrialisation
• Net mineral consumer through major
industry:
• Steel
• Metals production (aluminium, copper, lead,
zinc)
• Fertilizer
• Drivers
• Infrastructure (Real estate, rail, roads,
airports)
• Cars
• Crop production
• All underpinned by population growth and
urbanisation (rise of the middle class)
1. China’s main drivers | Economy and mineral demand
GDP growth of major economies 2012‐2017

6. China’s minerals demand forecast
(indexed to 2012)
Graphite
Graphite
1. China’s main drivers

7. 1. China’s main drivers
China is now an importer of raw materials
• 2000 average import dependency: 15%
• 2011 average important dependency: 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Bauxite Copper Iron ore Coking
coal
Average
2000
2011
China’s dependency on imported raw materials
Note: China is a net exporter of natural graphite

8. 2. Macro changes to mining in China
Resource management
• Environmental reasons commonly given
• But…China no longer wants to be the bread basket for the rest of the world
• Exports of raw materials at the expense of resources/environment no longer a
viable long term business
• The rare earths excuse

9. Pollution controls
• Blanket ban on all round/downdraft kilns, Shanxi
• Heavily polluting, inefficient
• Had to covert rotary kilns or go bust
• 75% of producers wiped out overnight
• Prices up 70%
2007 – Refractory‐grade bauxite
2009 – Flake Graphite, Inner Mongolia
2011 – Amorphous Graphite, Hunan
• Mine closures of older operations
• Pollution and demand grounds
• Government‐forced consolidation in
Lutang
• Coal and amorphous graphite industries
• 220 mines to 30 on pollution and
resource protection grounds
2. Macro changes to mining in China
2012 – Flake Graphite, Jixi, Heilongjiang

10. 2. Macro changes to mining in China
Developing a value‐added economy
• Exports of raw materials at the expense of resources/environment no longer
viable
• Development of the production value‐chain is critical
The 7 key industries China wants to develop
1. New energy
2. New energy automotive
3. New materials
4. Energy saving and environmental protection
5. Biological science
6. New information industry
7. High‐end equipment manufacturing

11. 2. Macro changes to mining in China
High quality, lower cost manufacturing
Consolidation – majority of production by the fewest companies
China wants to compete on quality and quantity
Output of top ten steel producers ‐ % of total capacity

12. 2. Macro changes to mining in China
Cost of mining in China is rising
In the last 10 years:
• Total costs up 800% for fluorspar
• Average wages up 250%
• Industrial machinery sales up 300% between 2006 and 2011
• Government crackdown on inefficient mining and processing practices
• Forced replacement of low cost labour
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wages
Land
Coal, Oil, Electricity
Yuan
Source: China
Economic Information
Network, Bloomberg,
The People’s Bank of
China, China Economic
Information
Rising costs in China (% indexed to 2004)

13. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
• Graphite now on the national radar
• Amorphous graphite consolidation in Hunan 2010‐2011
• Capped capacity at 510,000 tpa
• Real output in 2012: 250,000 tpa
• 220 mines down to 20‐30
• In essence it was a coal consolidation
• Graphite listed as a strategic mineral in China
• Questions over how serious the government is at reform = larger mineral
industries than graphite

14. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Policy changes in Shandong

15. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Policy changes in Shandong
• Formal notice service to Pingdu & Laixi on 30 October 2012
• Ban on any new graphite processing plants
• Environmental reasons = polluting of Pingtang River
• Environmental approval for every plant must be saught, those that fall foul will
have to cease operation
Real regulation or rhetoric?
Relocation of plants to Heilongjiang?
Nanshu Graphite plant, Shandong

16. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Reserve challenges – Heilongjiang vs Shandong
Shandong
• Capacity: 160,000 tpa
• Operating rate: 43%
• Oldest flake graphite mines in China
• Extraction is deeper and becoming
more expensive
• Processing plants importing
more raw material from
Heilongjiang

17. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Reserve challenges – Heilongjiang vs Shandong
Heilongjiang
• Capacity: 280,000 tpa
• Operating rate: 60%
• China’s largest flake graphite producing province
• Largest resources in Asia – Luobei and Jixi
• Produces spherical
graphite
• Establishing graphite
industrial zones

18. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Reserve challenges – Luobei and Jixi
Luobei
• North‐east, on border with Russia
• 636m. tonnes resources in 9km2 area
• 1/3rd of China’s graphite resources
Jixi
• 800m. Tonnes resources
• Mines in Jixi suspended by government in
mid‐2012
Rich resources of both Luobei and Jixi very
attractive to large Chinese corporations

19. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
The need for structural change
• Graphite is an old mining industry in China (“Black gold”)
• Structured in the 1980s
• Little widespread change in mining and processing has taken place since
Phosphate – case study
• 10m. tonnes over-capacity (total: 23m. tpa)
• Many smaller miners, very few major players = graphite
• In 2012, the government started a consolidation program by nominating preferred producers
• Free loans to buy out
smaller competitors
• Revoking of mining licences
of troublesome smaller players

20. 3. Flake graphite changes in China
Establishing centres of hi‐tech development
Inner Mongolia
• Consolidation program started in 2010
• Rising New Energy the preferred producer (owns all mining licences)
• Centralised graphite processing hubs
• Advanced, value‐added materials
• High purity, spherical, expandable, foil
Rising New Energy’s 1902 acre graphite industrial park
18 February 2013, indmin.com

21. 4. The medium term future for China
• In need of modernisation
• Increased focus on more efficient graphite mining
• Consolidation will happen
• High potential for export supply restrictions in favour of
value‐added products
• Net exporter of graphite for foreseeable future
• Steady, cheap supply of graphite concentrate from China is over
• China is industry leading with commercial spherical graphite
• China will compete in other advanced battery materials

22. 15 March 2013, Indonesia
• 3rd fastest growing economy in Asia
• Ban includes: bauxite, limestone, quartz, zeolite, feldspar, iron ore
“Ban will be strict with no exceptions”
Thamrin Latuconsina, Director of Export of Industrial and Mining
Products from the Ministry of Trade, Indonesia

23. January 2013, Shenzen
BYD delivers first batch of fully electric police cars to Shenzen Police Dept.