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20.02.2013



                                                                                        Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                   AGRO US             Adecoagro SA                                                Benchmark:                                       Adecoagro S.A. is an agricultural company in South America, with operations in
                                              New York: AGRO, Currency: USD                               S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                              Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. The Company is currently involved in a broad range of
Currency:
                                                                                                                                                           businesses, including farming crops and other agricultural products, cattle and dairy
                                                                                                                                                           operations, sugar, ethanol and energy production and land transformation.
Sector: Consumer Staples         Industry: Food Products                                                     Year:
Telephone         352-2689-8213                       Revenue (M)                                   548   Business Segments in USD                                    Sales (M)   Geographic Segments in USD                            Sales (M)
Website           www.adecoagro.com                   No of Employees                             5'560   Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business                                277   Unallocated Sales                                             1
Address           13-15 Avenue de la Liberte Luxembourg, 1931 Luxembourg                                  Crops                                                             148
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                            Rice                                                               83
Price                                 8.21            1M Return                                 -14.1%    Dairy                                                              20
52 Week High                        11.30             6M Return                                 -21.5%    Coffee                                                             14
52 Week Low                           8.00            52 Wk Return                              -14.5%    Cattle                                                              6
52 Wk Beta                            0.99            YTD Return                                 -3.2%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                  IG8                                                                                                           1%
S&P                          -        Date                -                      Outlook              -                             4% 3%
Moody's                      -        Date                -                      Outlook              -
Fitch                        -        Date                -                      Outlook              -                15%

Valuation Ratios
                         12/08       12/09       12/10        12/11    12/12E        12/13E     12/14E
                                                                                                                                                                50%
P/E                          -           -           -        17.4x     29.7x         13.5x      11.1x
EV/EBIT                      -           -           -          6.7x         -             -          -
EV/EBITDA                    -           -           -          5.3x      8.8x          5.7x       4.9x
P/S                          -           -           -          1.8x      1.7x          1.3x       1.2x                 27%
P/B                          -           -           -          0.9x      0.9x          0.9x       0.8x
Div Yield                    -           -           -         0.0%      0.0%          0.0%       1.1%                                                                                                      100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/08         12/09       12/10        12/11    12/12E        12/13E     12/14E
                                                                                                                           Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business
Gross Margin            29.7          23.9         10.5        39.3         -             -          -
                                                                                                                           Crops
EBITDA Margin           20.4          15.1         -0.1        29.0      23.4          27.4       30.1
Operating Margin          8.8           5.4        -8.9        22.8      13.7          22.1       23.8                     Rice
Profit Margin            -7.9          -0.1       -10.3        10.2       4.8           9.0        9.8                                                                                                     Unallocated Sales
                                                                                                                           Dairy
Return on Assets         -2.0           0.0        -3.4         3.7         -             -          -
                                                                                                                           Coffee
Return on Equity         -3.3           0.0        -6.0         6.3       1.4           5.4        6.6
                                                                                                                           Cattle
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/08         12/09       12/10        12/11
Current Ratio             1.0          1.6          1.2         2.1                                       Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               0.6          1.0          0.7         1.6                                       Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                                  120.5
EBIT/Interest             0.4          0.5         -1.0         2.0                                       Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                     1003.4
Tot Debt/Capital          0.3          0.3          0.4         0.1                                       Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                    282.9
Tot Debt/Equity           0.4          0.4          0.5         0.1                                       Total Debt (M)                                                                                                 406.5
Eff Tax Rate %              -            -            -        20.5                                       Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                             0.0
                                                                                                          LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                        0.0
                                                                                                          Investments (M)                                                                                                  8.9
                                                                                                          Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                          1135.9



                                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Adecoagro SA
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                      Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                                 18           18
                        100%       0%        0%        0%       0%       0%        0%         0%          0%         0%           0%          0%       0%
                                  13%       13%       13%
                                                               22%       22%       22%        22%        22%         22%
                                                                                                                                                                 16           16
                                                                                                                                 25%         29%      29%
                        80%                                                                                                                                      14           14

                                                                                                                                                                 12           12
                        60%                                                                                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                                                                                                                8
                                  88%       88%       88%                                                                                                        8
                        40%                                    78%       78%       78%        78%        78%         78%         75%                                            6
                                                                                                                                             71%      71%        6
                                                                                                                                                                                4
                                                                                                                                                                 4
                        20%                                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                                0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Raymond
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Morgan
                                                                                                                                                                                          Securities




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Credit Suisse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Stanley




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         HSBC
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Banco BTG
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Pactual SA
                                                                                                                                                                                          Itau BBA
                         0%                                                                                                                                      0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             James
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12    juin.12   juil.12   août.12     sept.12     oct.12      nov.12      déc.12   janv.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold           Sell       Price            Target Price

                               Date                     Buy             Hold                Sell                       Date              Price Target Price                   Broker                          Analyst                       Recommendation                      Target                       Date
                               31-Jan-13                71%              29%                0%                      20-Feb-13               8.21         13.82                Itau BBA Securities             GIOVANA ARAUJO                            outperform                15.30                   13-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                71%              29%                0%                      19-Feb-13               8.29         13.82                Banco BTG Pactual SA            THIAGO DUARTE                               neutral                 11.00                   30-Jan-13
                               30-Nov-12                75%              25%                0%                      18-Feb-13               8.31         13.82                Morgan Stanley                  JAVIER MARTINEZ                         Overwt/No Rating            13.30                    9-Jan-13
                               31-Oct-12                78%              22%                0%                      15-Feb-13               8.31         13.82                Raymond James                   PEDRO J RICHARDS                          outperform                15.50                    4-Jan-13
                               28-Sep-12                78%              22%                0%                      14-Feb-13               8.25         13.82                HSBC                            PEDRO HERRERA                             overweight                14.00                   17-Sep-12
                               31-Aug-12                78%              22%                0%                      13-Feb-13               8.33         13.82                Credit Suisse                   LUIZ OTAVIO CAMPOS                        outperform                14.00                   30-Mar-12
                               31-Jul-12                78%              22%                0%                      12-Feb-13               8.40         13.82
                               29-Jun-12                78%              22%                0%                      11-Feb-13               8.54         13.82
                               31-May-12                78%              22%                0%                       8-Feb-13               8.50         13.82
                               30-Apr-12                88%              13%                0%                       7-Feb-13               8.52         13.74
                               30-Mar-12                88%              13%                0%                       6-Feb-13               8.50         13.74
                               29-Feb-12                88%              13%                0%                       5-Feb-13               8.55         13.74
                                                                                                                     4-Feb-13               8.56         13.74
                                                                                                                     1-Feb-13               8.74         13.74
                                                                                                                    31-Jan-13               8.50         13.74
                                                                                                                    30-Jan-13               8.18         13.74
                                                                                                                    29-Jan-13               8.55         13.74
                                                                                                                    28-Jan-13               9.11         13.74
                                                                                                                    25-Jan-13               9.17         13.74
                                                                                                                    24-Jan-13               9.00         13.74
                                                                                                                    23-Jan-13               9.45         13.74
                                                                                                                    22-Jan-13               9.45         13.74
                                                                                                                    21-Jan-13               9.56         13.74
                                                                                                                    18-Jan-13               9.56         13.74
                                                                                                                    17-Jan-13               9.46         13.74
                                                                                                                    16-Jan-13               9.06         13.54
                                                                                                                    15-Jan-13               9.30         13.54
                                                                                                                    14-Jan-13               9.06         13.54
                                                                                                                    11-Jan-13               8.94         13.54
                                                                                                                    10-Jan-13               8.90         13.54

                                                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
20.02.2013



Adecoagro SA
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                         Geographic Ownership
                                                                                        1%2%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          120.5                                                                                 United States                              63.97%
Float                                           59.4%                                                                                 Netherlands                                16.38%                               2% 2% 1%1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              3%
Short Interest (M)                                 0.9                                                                                Cayman Islands                             10.39%
Short Interest as % of Float                    1.30%                                                                                 Luxembourg                                 2.65%                   10%
Days to Cover Shorts                              0.96                                                                                Unknown Country                            2.24%
Institutional Ownership                        96.58%                                                                                 Britain                                    1.80%
Retail Ownership                                1.23%                                                                                 Germany                                    1.45%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 65%
Insider Ownership                               2.19%                                                                                 Others                                     1.12%                       16%

                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                               97%                                    Hedge Fund Manager                         47.47%
                                                                                                                                      Investment Advisor                         34.25%
                                                                                                                                      Pension Fund (Erisa)                       12.73%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      United States         Netherlands        Cayman Islands
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Mutual Fund Manager                        2.49%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Luxembourg            Unknown Country    Britain
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                Others                                     3.07%                Germany               Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source        Country
SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN                        25'911'633                  0                       212'734'507              21.20%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES                         2%           3%
SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN                        25'911'633                  0                       212'734'507              21.20%                      31.12.2012   Research    UNITED STATES
HBK INVESTMENTS LP                          20'471'770                  0                       168'073'232              16.75%                      31.12.2011     20F       UNITED STATES                 13%
STICHTING PENSIOEN Z                        15'307'824                  0                       125'677'235              12.53%                      31.12.2011     20F       NETHERLANDS
AL GHARRAFA INVESTME                        12'562'906                  0                       103'141'458              10.28%                      31.12.2011     20F      CAYMAN ISLANDS                                                    48%
OSPRAIE MANAGEMENT L                        10'819'581            352'858                        88'828'760               8.85%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN                         4'503'722            -50'952                        36'975'558               3.69%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
PGGM VERMOGENSBEHEER                         4'500'000                  0                        36'945'000               3.68%                      31.12.2012     13F       NETHERLANDS
JENNISON ASSOCIATES                          4'439'252           -127'838                        36'446'259               3.63%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      34%
GLOBAL THEMATIC PART                         3'014'059            175'217                        24'745'424               2.47%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
DWS INVESTMENT S A                           2'583'144            142'917                        21'207'612               2.11%                      28.12.2012   MF-AGG      LUXEMBOURG
INVESTEC ASSET MANAG                         1'942'700             54'600                        15'949'567               1.59%                      31.12.2012     13F          BRITAIN
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                         1'807'739            -51'551                        14'841'537               1.48%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                         1'800'727               -856                        14'783'969               1.47%                      15.02.2013   MF-AGG      UNITED STATES   Hedge Fund Manager      Investment Advisor      Pension Fund (Erisa)
                                                                                                                                                                                              Mutual Fund Manager     Others
DEUTSCHE BANK AG                             1'577'262           -150'660                        12'949'321               1.29%                      31.12.2012     13F         GERMANY
INVESTEC ASSET MANAG                         1'471'100            -25'000                        12'077'731               1.20%                      30.11.2012   MF-AGG        GUERNSEY
BOYCE ALAN LELAND                            1'393'169            362'859                        11'437'917               1.14%                      31.12.2011     20F            n/a
VIEIRA MARCELO                               1'105'331            280'769                         9'074'768               0.90%                      31.12.2011     20F            n/a
NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC                           713'850           -547'601                         5'860'709               0.58%                      31.12.2012     13F       UNITED STATES
NUVEEN ASSET MANAGEM                           534'992            534'992                         4'392'284               0.44%                      31.01.2013   MF-AGG      UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
BOYCE ALAN LELAND                            1'393'169             362'859                         11'437'917              1.14%                     31.12.2011      20F
VIEIRA MARCELO                               1'105'331             280'769                          9'074'768              0.90%                     31.12.2011      20F
BOSCH MARIANO                                  182'507              51'561                          1'498'382              0.15%                     31.12.2011      20F
                                                                                                                           2.19%




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Adecoagro SA
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                               Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/01         12/02    12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09    12/10    12/11   12/12E      12/13E        12/14E
Income Statement
Revenue                                                                                                                        143         244         314      426     548      592          781          828
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                                                                                         109         172         239      381     333

Gross Income                                                                                                                    33          73          75       45     215
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                                                                                            5          51          58       83      90
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                                                                                                28          21          17      -38     125       81          173          198
  - Interest Expense                                                                                                            12          51          34       39      62
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                                                                                           -13           -3        -12      -17       -9

Pretax Income                                                                                                                   29          -27         -6      -61      72       25           90          140
  - Income Tax Expense                                                                                                          -0          -10         -5      -16      15

Income Before XO Items                                                                                                          29          -16         -0      -45      57
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                                                                                               0            0          0        0
   - Minority Interests                                                                                                         -1            3         -0       -1       1

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                                                                                                  0.10        (0.05)      (0.00)   (0.36)   0.48

Net Income Adjusted*                                                                                                                                             45                29           70           81
EPS Adjusted                                                                                                                                                                    0.28         0.61         0.74
Dividends Per Share                                                                                                          0.00         0.00       0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00         0.00         0.09
        Payout Ratio %                                                                                                        0.0                                       0.0     0.00         0.00         0.12

Total Shares Outstanding                                                                                                       298         423         473      120     121
Diluted Shares Outstanding                                                                                                     298         423         120      122     118

EBITDA                                                                                                                          37          50          47       -1     159      139          214          249

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                           12/01   12/02   12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08        12/09     12/10     12/11    12/12E   12/13E   12/14E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                                                                                  254.454     282.775       299.126   330.061   629.854
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                                                                                 71          93            75        70       331
  + Short Term Investments                                                                                  0           0             0         0         0
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable                                                                            79          76           106       119       141
  + Inventories                                                                                            58          61            58        57        96
  + Other Current Assets                                                                                   47          52            60        83        62

Total Long-Term Assets                                                                                    691         745          970      1'011     1'071
  + Long Term Investments                                                                                   4           9           43         52        44
         Gross Fixed Assets                                                                               567         629          770        877       919
         Accumulated Depreciation                                                                          29          57           87        125       159
  + Net Fixed Assets                                                                                      538         571          683        752       760
  + Other Long Term Assets                                                                                149         165          244        207       268

Total Current Liabilities                                                                                 146         283          190       269       296
  + Accounts Payable                                                                                       33          47           62        12       114
  + Short Term Borrowings                                                                                  98         224          104       252       158
  + Other Short Term Liabilities                                                                           15          12           25         6        24

Total Long Term Liabilities                                                                               182         106          322       349       310
  + Long Term Borrowings                                                                                   62           4          203       139         0
  + Other Long Term Borrowings                                                                            120         102          119       210       310

Total Liabilities                                                                                         328         390          512       618        606
  + Long Preferred Equity                                                                                   0           0            0         0          0
  + Minority Interest                                                                                      49          45            0        15         15
  + Share Capital & APIC                                                                                  476         628          697       683      1'107
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity                                                                       92         -35           60        25        -27

Total Shareholders Equity                                                                                 617         638          757       723      1'095

Total Liabilities & Equity                                                                                945        1'028        1'269     1'341     1'701

Book Value Per Share                                                                                     1.91         1.40         1.60      5.90      8.96     8.95     9.53    10.36
  Tangible Book Value Per Share                                                                          1.83         1.36         1.55      5.66      8.65




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/01   12/02   12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09   12/10   12/11   12/12E   12/13E   12/14E
Cash Flows
Net Income                                                                                                 29          -19         -0     -44      56      13       65
  + Depreciation & Amortization                                                                             9           28         30      38      34
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments                                                                            -65          -44        -21      73      29
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital                                                                           -42          -17        -55     -39     -62

Cash From Operating Activities                                                                            -68         -52         -46      27      57
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets                                                                                4           3           7      12       3
  + Capital Expenditures                                                                                 -130        -186         -98     -88     -90     -335     -287     -204
  + Increase in Investments                                                                                 0           0           0       0
  + Decrease in Investments                                                                                 0           0           0       0
  + Other Investing Activities                                                                           -121          25         -24     -36     -53

Cash From Investing Activities                                                                           -247        -157        -114    -112    -140
  + Dividends Paid
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings                                                                        68          19          7      12       20
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings                                                                       51          19         80      67       35
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings                                                                        0           0          0       0      -82
  + Increase in Capital Stocks                                                                              0           0          0       0
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks                                                                              0           0          0       0
  + Other Financing Activities                                                                              0           0         55       0     372

Cash From Financing Activities                                                                            118          38        142      80     344

Net Changes in Cash                                                                                      -197        -172         -19      -5    260

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)                                                                               -198        -239        -144     -61     -34     -212     -205      -47

Free Cash Flow To Firm                                                                                                                             16
Free Cash Flow To Equity                                                                                              -198        -49      31     -59
Free Cash Flow per Share                                                                                -0.69        -0.58      -1.20   -0.50   -0.29




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/01   12/02   12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09   12/10    12/11   12/12E   12/13E   12/14E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                                                                                                               17.4x    29.7x    13.5x    11.1x
  EV to EBIT                                                                                                                                    6.7x
  EV to EBITDA                                                                                                                                  5.3x     8.8x     5.7x     4.9x
  Price to Sales                                                                                                                                1.8x     1.7x     1.3x     1.2x
  Price to Book                                                                                                                                 0.9x     0.9x     0.9x     0.8x
  Dividend Yield                                                                                                                               0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     1.1%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                                                                                        23.3%       29.7%       23.9%    10.5%   39.3%
  EBITDA Margin                                                                                       26.3%       20.4%       15.1%    -0.1%   29.0%   23.4%    27.4%    30.1%
  Operating Margin                                                                                    19.7%        8.8%        5.4%    -8.9%   22.8%   13.7%    22.1%    23.8%
  Profit Margin                                                                                       20.5%       -7.9%       -0.1%   -10.3%   10.2%    4.8%     9.0%     9.8%
  Return on Assets                                                                                                -2.0%        0.0%    -3.4%    3.7%
  Return on Equity                                                                                                -3.3%        0.0%    -6.0%    6.3%    1.4%     5.4%     6.6%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                                                                                        1.75         1.00       1.57     1.23    2.13
  Quick Ratio                                                                                          1.03         0.60       0.95     0.70    1.59
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)                                                                     2.26         0.42       0.50    -0.97    2.00
  Tot Debt/Capital                                                                                     0.21         0.26       0.29     0.35    0.13
  Tot Debt/Equity                                                                                      0.26         0.36       0.41     0.54    0.14

Others
  Asset Turnover                                                                                                    0.25       0.27     0.33    0.36
  Accounts Receivable Turnover                                                                                      3.15       3.44     3.78    4.21
  Accounts Payable Turnover                                                                                         4.37       4.33    10.31    5.91
  Inventory Turnover                                                                                                2.88       4.01     6.63    4.34

  Effective Tax Rate                                                                                                                           20.5%




                                                      Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                                                                                  MOLINOS RIO
                                         ADECOAGRO SA      CRESUD SA         COSAN LTD - A     ARCHER-DANIELS                        INGREDION INC      SLC AGRICOLA SA        BRASILAGRO        SAO MARTINHO       COSAN
                                                                                                                     PLAT

Latest Fiscal Year:                            12/2011          06/2012            03/2012            06/2012           12/2011            12/2012              12/2011             06/2012             03/2012        03/2012
52-Week High                                      11.30              7.62             21.14              33.98             30.90              70.42                24.80               10.30               29.70          48.44
52-Week High Date                            19.03.2012       01.02.2013         07.02.2013         10.05.2012        30.01.2013         17.01.2013           20.07.2012          24.01.2013          24.01.2013     08.02.2013
52-Week Low                                         8.00             4.40             11.27              24.38             16.60              45.30                15.55                 6.66              17.50          28.43
52-Week Low Date                             28.12.2012       04.06.2012         11.06.2012         15.11.2012        08.05.2012         17.07.2012           24.02.2012          23.05.2012          24.05.2012     24.05.2012
Daily Volume                                     90'149           10'460            211'838          2'982'517            15'915            187'291              109'900               6'200              41'500        407'500
  Current Price (2/dd/yy)                          8.21             6.70              20.41             32.68             26.70               66.72                19.85                9.94              26.51          46.56
  52-Week High % Change                          -27.3%           -12.1%               -3.5%             -3.8%           -13.6%               -5.2%               -20.0%               -3.5%              -10.7%          -3.9%
  52-Week Low % Change                             2.6%            52.3%              81.1%             34.0%             60.8%               47.3%                27.7%               49.2%               51.5%         63.8%
Total Common Shares (M)                           120.5            501.6              270.7             659.0             250.4                77.0                 97.5                58.4               112.3         404.3
  Market Capitalization                        1'003.4          3'360.5            5'524.7           21'521.9           6'687.0            5'107.8              1'963.1               580.7             2'995.6      18'959.9
Total Debt                                       158.2           3'883.2            5'199.4          10'320.0           3'199.8             1'800.0               882.4                94.4              1'232.4       5'014.1
Preferred Stock                                    -                 -                  -                 -                 -                   -                   -                   -                    -             -
Minority Interest                                 15.0           1'990.8            3'904.3             200.0               -                  22.0                 -                     -                  -           464.6
Cash and Equivalents                             330.5             586.6            1'654.1           1'729.0             751.2               628.0               130.5                67.5                417.1       1'616.2
   Enterprise Value                            1'214.1          8'647.8           20'292.6           28'054.9         11'188.3             6'301.8              2'791.7               579.7             4'082.7      32'028.1
                                                                                                                                                           Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY           548.1           3'457.8           24'096.9          89'038.0          12'795.5             6'532.1              1'005.6              146.2              1'367.0      24'096.9
                                  LTM            515.0           3'457.8           27'348.9          90'559.0          15'765.2             6'532.1              1'143.4              175.0              1'491.6      27'348.9
                                 CY+1            592.0           3'138.0           28'566.0          89'986.3                  -            6'918.4              1'148.2              182.5              1'598.4      30'880.2
                                 CY+2            781.0           3'166.0           34'337.7          89'123.8                  -            7'073.2              1'255.3              193.0              1'955.6      35'485.1
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY             2.6x              2.2x               0.7x              0.3x              0.8x                0.9x                 2.9x               4.0x                 2.8x          1.2x
                                  LTM              2.5x              2.2x               0.7x              0.3x              0.7x                0.9x                 2.6x               3.3x                 2.6x          1.1x
                                 CY+1              2.2x              2.8x               0.8x                  -                 -               0.9x                 2.2x               3.9x                 2.5x          0.9x
                                 CY+2              1.9x              2.8x               0.6x                  -                 -                   -                2.0x               3.9x                 2.1x          0.8x
EBITDA                             LFY           159.0             893.3            1'992.3           2'890.0             268.0               914.6                325.9                4.3                581.2       5'338.7
                                  LTM            131.4             981.7            2'010.4           2'827.0             474.1               914.7                234.6               22.3                476.2       2'707.3
                                 CY+1            138.5           1'228.0            2'949.0           3'339.0                  -              943.8                271.9               40.7                661.3       2'892.8
                                 CY+2            214.0           1'253.0            3'888.0           3'911.8                  -            1'006.8                294.4               48.6                836.2       3'740.1
EV/EBITDA                          LFY             9.1x              8.6x               9.0x              8.5x             40.2x                6.7x                 9.1x             136.5x                 6.5x          5.6x
                                  LTM             11.0x              7.8x               8.9x              8.7x             22.7x                6.7x                12.6x              26.1x                 7.9x         11.1x
                                 CY+1              9.6x              7.1x               7.5x                  -                 -               6.3x                 9.2x              17.3x                 6.0x          9.3x
                                 CY+2              7.1x              7.0x               5.6x                  -                 -                   -                8.4x              15.4x                 5.0x          7.3x
EPS                                LFY             0.48              0.04               4.40              2.29              1.11                5.57                 0.83              -0.32                 1.12          6.34
                                  LTM             -0.25              0.20               1.77              2.38              0.28                5.58                -0.59              -0.15                 0.49          1.86
                                 CY+1             0.28              1.50               2.04              2.53                  -               5.83                 0.62               0.25                 1.22          1.76
                                 CY+2             0.61              2.76               2.75              3.02                  -               6.42                 1.20               0.08                 1.89          2.46
P/E                                LFY                 -            34.4x              22.6x             13.7x             96.8x               12.0x                     -                  -               53.8x         25.0x
                                  LTM                  -            74.9x              22.6x             13.7x             97.0x               12.0x                     -                  -               32.1x         25.3x
                                 CY+1             29.7x              4.5x              19.6x             12.9x                  -              11.4x                31.8x              40.6x                21.7x         26.4x
                                 CY+2             13.5x              2.4x              14.6x             10.8x                  -              10.4x                16.6x             132.5x                14.0x         18.9x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year           28.6%             36.1%              33.4%             10.4%             15.3%                5.0%                13.2%              83.8%                 5.6%         33.4%
                                5 Year                 -                 -            77.2%              9.3%             33.8%               14.0%                35.3%             595.7%                28.4%         83.9%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year                 -           (3.1%)           (26.2%)           (19.0%)           (69.4%)                2.5%                58.3%              46.2%                 2.7%        159.8%
                                5 Year                 -           83.9%              17.2%              1.0%              3.1%               14.1%                      -                  -              18.6%         41.9%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM            22.4%             28.4%               8.0%              3.1%              3.0%               14.0%                20.5%              12.8%                32.2%          9.9%
                                 CY+1            23.4%             39.1%              10.3%              3.7%                   -             13.6%                23.7%              22.3%                41.4%          9.4%
                                 CY+2            27.4%             39.6%              11.3%              4.4%                   -             14.2%                23.5%              25.2%                42.8%         10.5%
                                                                                                                                                 Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                            14.6%           188.2%              93.2%              57.4%           233.5%               73.3%                46.0%               16.9%               60.9%          54.8%    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / Capital %                           12.6%            48.9%              35.4%              36.2%            70.0%               42.1%                31.5%               14.4%               37.8%          34.3%    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA                              3.094x           3.956x             2.936x             3.375x          11.165x              1.968x               4.023x              3.555x              3.791x         4.307x   FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA                                0.941x           3.358x             1.992x             2.311x           9.495x              1.281x               3.337x             -0.045x              2.283x         3.449x   FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense                            2.550x           2.210x             3.388x             6.451x           2.360x             13.570x               9.748x              0.573x              7.945x         9.844x   FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
                                                                                                                                                         Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                                  -                 -               BB              A *-                    -              BBB                        -                 -               BB+             BB    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                              -                 -       21.10.2010         19.10.2012                   -       24.11.2008                        -                 -        22.12.2011     21.10.2010    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating                              -                 -                 -                A2                   -             Baa2                        -                 -                  -            WR    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                          -                 -                 -        12.11.2004                   -       14.02.2008                        -                 -                  -    15.05.2011    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE



                                                                                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial analysis adecoagro sa - adecoagro s.a. is an agricultural company in south america, with operations in argentina, brazil and uruguay

  • 1. 20.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: AGRO US Adecoagro SA Benchmark: Adecoagro S.A. is an agricultural company in South America, with operations in New York: AGRO, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. The Company is currently involved in a broad range of Currency: businesses, including farming crops and other agricultural products, cattle and dairy operations, sugar, ethanol and energy production and land transformation. Sector: Consumer Staples Industry: Food Products Year: Telephone 352-2689-8213 Revenue (M) 548 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.adecoagro.com No of Employees 5'560 Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business 277 Unallocated Sales 1 Address 13-15 Avenue de la Liberte Luxembourg, 1931 Luxembourg Crops 148 Share Price Performance in USD Rice 83 Price 8.21 1M Return -14.1% Dairy 20 52 Week High 11.30 6M Return -21.5% Coffee 14 52 Week Low 8.00 52 Wk Return -14.5% Cattle 6 52 Wk Beta 0.99 YTD Return -3.2% Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG8 1% S&P - Date - Outlook - 4% 3% Moody's - Date - Outlook - Fitch - Date - Outlook - 15% Valuation Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E 50% P/E - - - 17.4x 29.7x 13.5x 11.1x EV/EBIT - - - 6.7x - - - EV/EBITDA - - - 5.3x 8.8x 5.7x 4.9x P/S - - - 1.8x 1.7x 1.3x 1.2x 27% P/B - - - 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x Div Yield - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Business Gross Margin 29.7 23.9 10.5 39.3 - - - Crops EBITDA Margin 20.4 15.1 -0.1 29.0 23.4 27.4 30.1 Operating Margin 8.8 5.4 -8.9 22.8 13.7 22.1 23.8 Rice Profit Margin -7.9 -0.1 -10.3 10.2 4.8 9.0 9.8 Unallocated Sales Dairy Return on Assets -2.0 0.0 -3.4 3.7 - - - Coffee Return on Equity -3.3 0.0 -6.0 6.3 1.4 5.4 6.6 Cattle Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 Current Ratio 1.0 1.6 1.2 2.1 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.6 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 120.5 EBIT/Interest 0.4 0.5 -1.0 2.0 Market Capitalization (M) 1003.4 Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 Cash and ST Investments (M) 282.9 Tot Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 Total Debt (M) 406.5 Eff Tax Rate % - - - 20.5 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 8.9 Enterprise Value (M) 1135.9 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Adecoagro SA Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 18 18 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 13% 13% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 16 16 25% 29% 29% 80% 14 14 12 12 60% 10 10 8 88% 88% 88% 8 40% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 75% 6 71% 71% 6 4 4 20% 2 2 0 Raymond Morgan Securities Credit Suisse Stanley HSBC Banco BTG Pactual SA Itau BBA 0% 0 James févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 71% 29% 0% 20-Feb-13 8.21 13.82 Itau BBA Securities GIOVANA ARAUJO outperform 15.30 13-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 71% 29% 0% 19-Feb-13 8.29 13.82 Banco BTG Pactual SA THIAGO DUARTE neutral 11.00 30-Jan-13 30-Nov-12 75% 25% 0% 18-Feb-13 8.31 13.82 Morgan Stanley JAVIER MARTINEZ Overwt/No Rating 13.30 9-Jan-13 31-Oct-12 78% 22% 0% 15-Feb-13 8.31 13.82 Raymond James PEDRO J RICHARDS outperform 15.50 4-Jan-13 28-Sep-12 78% 22% 0% 14-Feb-13 8.25 13.82 HSBC PEDRO HERRERA overweight 14.00 17-Sep-12 31-Aug-12 78% 22% 0% 13-Feb-13 8.33 13.82 Credit Suisse LUIZ OTAVIO CAMPOS outperform 14.00 30-Mar-12 31-Jul-12 78% 22% 0% 12-Feb-13 8.40 13.82 29-Jun-12 78% 22% 0% 11-Feb-13 8.54 13.82 31-May-12 78% 22% 0% 8-Feb-13 8.50 13.82 30-Apr-12 88% 13% 0% 7-Feb-13 8.52 13.74 30-Mar-12 88% 13% 0% 6-Feb-13 8.50 13.74 29-Feb-12 88% 13% 0% 5-Feb-13 8.55 13.74 4-Feb-13 8.56 13.74 1-Feb-13 8.74 13.74 31-Jan-13 8.50 13.74 30-Jan-13 8.18 13.74 29-Jan-13 8.55 13.74 28-Jan-13 9.11 13.74 25-Jan-13 9.17 13.74 24-Jan-13 9.00 13.74 23-Jan-13 9.45 13.74 22-Jan-13 9.45 13.74 21-Jan-13 9.56 13.74 18-Jan-13 9.56 13.74 17-Jan-13 9.46 13.74 16-Jan-13 9.06 13.54 15-Jan-13 9.30 13.54 14-Jan-13 9.06 13.54 11-Jan-13 8.94 13.54 10-Jan-13 8.90 13.54 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 20.02.2013 Adecoagro SA Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 1%2% Shares Outstanding (M) 120.5 United States 63.97% Float 59.4% Netherlands 16.38% 2% 2% 1%1% 3% Short Interest (M) 0.9 Cayman Islands 10.39% Short Interest as % of Float 1.30% Luxembourg 2.65% 10% Days to Cover Shorts 0.96 Unknown Country 2.24% Institutional Ownership 96.58% Britain 1.80% Retail Ownership 1.23% Germany 1.45% 65% Insider Ownership 2.19% Others 1.12% 16% Institutional Ownership Distribution 97% Hedge Fund Manager 47.47% Investment Advisor 34.25% Pension Fund (Erisa) 12.73% United States Netherlands Cayman Islands Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Mutual Fund Manager 2.49% Luxembourg Unknown Country Britain Pricing data is in USD Others 3.07% Germany Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN 25'911'633 0 212'734'507 21.20% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 2% 3% SOROS FUND MANAGEMEN 25'911'633 0 212'734'507 21.20% 31.12.2012 Research UNITED STATES HBK INVESTMENTS LP 20'471'770 0 168'073'232 16.75% 31.12.2011 20F UNITED STATES 13% STICHTING PENSIOEN Z 15'307'824 0 125'677'235 12.53% 31.12.2011 20F NETHERLANDS AL GHARRAFA INVESTME 12'562'906 0 103'141'458 10.28% 31.12.2011 20F CAYMAN ISLANDS 48% OSPRAIE MANAGEMENT L 10'819'581 352'858 88'828'760 8.85% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 4'503'722 -50'952 36'975'558 3.69% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES PGGM VERMOGENSBEHEER 4'500'000 0 36'945'000 3.68% 31.12.2012 13F NETHERLANDS JENNISON ASSOCIATES 4'439'252 -127'838 36'446'259 3.63% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 34% GLOBAL THEMATIC PART 3'014'059 175'217 24'745'424 2.47% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES DWS INVESTMENT S A 2'583'144 142'917 21'207'612 2.11% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG INVESTEC ASSET MANAG 1'942'700 54'600 15'949'567 1.59% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 1'807'739 -51'551 14'841'537 1.48% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 1'800'727 -856 14'783'969 1.47% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES Hedge Fund Manager Investment Advisor Pension Fund (Erisa) Mutual Fund Manager Others DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1'577'262 -150'660 12'949'321 1.29% 31.12.2012 13F GERMANY INVESTEC ASSET MANAG 1'471'100 -25'000 12'077'731 1.20% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG GUERNSEY BOYCE ALAN LELAND 1'393'169 362'859 11'437'917 1.14% 31.12.2011 20F n/a VIEIRA MARCELO 1'105'331 280'769 9'074'768 0.90% 31.12.2011 20F n/a NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC 713'850 -547'601 5'860'709 0.58% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES NUVEEN ASSET MANAGEM 534'992 534'992 4'392'284 0.44% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source BOYCE ALAN LELAND 1'393'169 362'859 11'437'917 1.14% 31.12.2011 20F VIEIRA MARCELO 1'105'331 280'769 9'074'768 0.90% 31.12.2011 20F BOSCH MARIANO 182'507 51'561 1'498'382 0.15% 31.12.2011 20F 2.19% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Adecoagro SA Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Income Statement Revenue 143 244 314 426 548 592 781 828 - Cost of Goods Sold 109 172 239 381 333 Gross Income 33 73 75 45 215 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 5 51 58 83 90 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income 28 21 17 -38 125 81 173 198 - Interest Expense 12 51 34 39 62 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -13 -3 -12 -17 -9 Pretax Income 29 -27 -6 -61 72 25 90 140 - Income Tax Expense -0 -10 -5 -16 15 Income Before XO Items 29 -16 -0 -45 57 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests -1 3 -0 -1 1 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.10 (0.05) (0.00) (0.36) 0.48 Net Income Adjusted* 45 29 70 81 EPS Adjusted 0.28 0.61 0.74 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.12 Total Shares Outstanding 298 423 473 120 121 Diluted Shares Outstanding 298 423 120 122 118 EBITDA 37 50 47 -1 159 139 214 249 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 254.454 282.775 299.126 330.061 629.854 + Cash & Near Cash Items 71 93 75 70 331 + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 79 76 106 119 141 + Inventories 58 61 58 57 96 + Other Current Assets 47 52 60 83 62 Total Long-Term Assets 691 745 970 1'011 1'071 + Long Term Investments 4 9 43 52 44 Gross Fixed Assets 567 629 770 877 919 Accumulated Depreciation 29 57 87 125 159 + Net Fixed Assets 538 571 683 752 760 + Other Long Term Assets 149 165 244 207 268 Total Current Liabilities 146 283 190 269 296 + Accounts Payable 33 47 62 12 114 + Short Term Borrowings 98 224 104 252 158 + Other Short Term Liabilities 15 12 25 6 24 Total Long Term Liabilities 182 106 322 349 310 + Long Term Borrowings 62 4 203 139 0 + Other Long Term Borrowings 120 102 119 210 310 Total Liabilities 328 390 512 618 606 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 49 45 0 15 15 + Share Capital & APIC 476 628 697 683 1'107 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 92 -35 60 25 -27 Total Shareholders Equity 617 638 757 723 1'095 Total Liabilities & Equity 945 1'028 1'269 1'341 1'701 Book Value Per Share 1.91 1.40 1.60 5.90 8.96 8.95 9.53 10.36 Tangible Book Value Per Share 1.83 1.36 1.55 5.66 8.65 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Cash Flows Net Income 29 -19 -0 -44 56 13 65 + Depreciation & Amortization 9 28 30 38 34 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments -65 -44 -21 73 29 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital -42 -17 -55 -39 -62 Cash From Operating Activities -68 -52 -46 27 57 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 4 3 7 12 3 + Capital Expenditures -130 -186 -98 -88 -90 -335 -287 -204 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -121 25 -24 -36 -53 Cash From Investing Activities -247 -157 -114 -112 -140 + Dividends Paid + Change in Short Term Borrowings 68 19 7 12 20 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 51 19 80 67 35 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 -82 + Increase in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 + Other Financing Activities 0 0 55 0 372 Cash From Financing Activities 118 38 142 80 344 Net Changes in Cash -197 -172 -19 -5 260 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -198 -239 -144 -61 -34 -212 -205 -47 Free Cash Flow To Firm 16 Free Cash Flow To Equity -198 -49 31 -59 Free Cash Flow per Share -0.69 -0.58 -1.20 -0.50 -0.29 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 17.4x 29.7x 13.5x 11.1x EV to EBIT 6.7x EV to EBITDA 5.3x 8.8x 5.7x 4.9x Price to Sales 1.8x 1.7x 1.3x 1.2x Price to Book 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 23.3% 29.7% 23.9% 10.5% 39.3% EBITDA Margin 26.3% 20.4% 15.1% -0.1% 29.0% 23.4% 27.4% 30.1% Operating Margin 19.7% 8.8% 5.4% -8.9% 22.8% 13.7% 22.1% 23.8% Profit Margin 20.5% -7.9% -0.1% -10.3% 10.2% 4.8% 9.0% 9.8% Return on Assets -2.0% 0.0% -3.4% 3.7% Return on Equity -3.3% 0.0% -6.0% 6.3% 1.4% 5.4% 6.6% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 1.75 1.00 1.57 1.23 2.13 Quick Ratio 1.03 0.60 0.95 0.70 1.59 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.26 0.42 0.50 -0.97 2.00 Tot Debt/Capital 0.21 0.26 0.29 0.35 0.13 Tot Debt/Equity 0.26 0.36 0.41 0.54 0.14 Others Asset Turnover 0.25 0.27 0.33 0.36 Accounts Receivable Turnover 3.15 3.44 3.78 4.21 Accounts Payable Turnover 4.37 4.33 10.31 5.91 Inventory Turnover 2.88 4.01 6.63 4.34 Effective Tax Rate 20.5% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision MOLINOS RIO ADECOAGRO SA CRESUD SA COSAN LTD - A ARCHER-DANIELS INGREDION INC SLC AGRICOLA SA BRASILAGRO SAO MARTINHO COSAN PLAT Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2011 06/2012 03/2012 06/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 06/2012 03/2012 03/2012 52-Week High 11.30 7.62 21.14 33.98 30.90 70.42 24.80 10.30 29.70 48.44 52-Week High Date 19.03.2012 01.02.2013 07.02.2013 10.05.2012 30.01.2013 17.01.2013 20.07.2012 24.01.2013 24.01.2013 08.02.2013 52-Week Low 8.00 4.40 11.27 24.38 16.60 45.30 15.55 6.66 17.50 28.43 52-Week Low Date 28.12.2012 04.06.2012 11.06.2012 15.11.2012 08.05.2012 17.07.2012 24.02.2012 23.05.2012 24.05.2012 24.05.2012 Daily Volume 90'149 10'460 211'838 2'982'517 15'915 187'291 109'900 6'200 41'500 407'500 Current Price (2/dd/yy) 8.21 6.70 20.41 32.68 26.70 66.72 19.85 9.94 26.51 46.56 52-Week High % Change -27.3% -12.1% -3.5% -3.8% -13.6% -5.2% -20.0% -3.5% -10.7% -3.9% 52-Week Low % Change 2.6% 52.3% 81.1% 34.0% 60.8% 47.3% 27.7% 49.2% 51.5% 63.8% Total Common Shares (M) 120.5 501.6 270.7 659.0 250.4 77.0 97.5 58.4 112.3 404.3 Market Capitalization 1'003.4 3'360.5 5'524.7 21'521.9 6'687.0 5'107.8 1'963.1 580.7 2'995.6 18'959.9 Total Debt 158.2 3'883.2 5'199.4 10'320.0 3'199.8 1'800.0 882.4 94.4 1'232.4 5'014.1 Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - Minority Interest 15.0 1'990.8 3'904.3 200.0 - 22.0 - - - 464.6 Cash and Equivalents 330.5 586.6 1'654.1 1'729.0 751.2 628.0 130.5 67.5 417.1 1'616.2 Enterprise Value 1'214.1 8'647.8 20'292.6 28'054.9 11'188.3 6'301.8 2'791.7 579.7 4'082.7 32'028.1 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 548.1 3'457.8 24'096.9 89'038.0 12'795.5 6'532.1 1'005.6 146.2 1'367.0 24'096.9 LTM 515.0 3'457.8 27'348.9 90'559.0 15'765.2 6'532.1 1'143.4 175.0 1'491.6 27'348.9 CY+1 592.0 3'138.0 28'566.0 89'986.3 - 6'918.4 1'148.2 182.5 1'598.4 30'880.2 CY+2 781.0 3'166.0 34'337.7 89'123.8 - 7'073.2 1'255.3 193.0 1'955.6 35'485.1 EV/Total Revenue LFY 2.6x 2.2x 0.7x 0.3x 0.8x 0.9x 2.9x 4.0x 2.8x 1.2x LTM 2.5x 2.2x 0.7x 0.3x 0.7x 0.9x 2.6x 3.3x 2.6x 1.1x CY+1 2.2x 2.8x 0.8x - - 0.9x 2.2x 3.9x 2.5x 0.9x CY+2 1.9x 2.8x 0.6x - - - 2.0x 3.9x 2.1x 0.8x EBITDA LFY 159.0 893.3 1'992.3 2'890.0 268.0 914.6 325.9 4.3 581.2 5'338.7 LTM 131.4 981.7 2'010.4 2'827.0 474.1 914.7 234.6 22.3 476.2 2'707.3 CY+1 138.5 1'228.0 2'949.0 3'339.0 - 943.8 271.9 40.7 661.3 2'892.8 CY+2 214.0 1'253.0 3'888.0 3'911.8 - 1'006.8 294.4 48.6 836.2 3'740.1 EV/EBITDA LFY 9.1x 8.6x 9.0x 8.5x 40.2x 6.7x 9.1x 136.5x 6.5x 5.6x LTM 11.0x 7.8x 8.9x 8.7x 22.7x 6.7x 12.6x 26.1x 7.9x 11.1x CY+1 9.6x 7.1x 7.5x - - 6.3x 9.2x 17.3x 6.0x 9.3x CY+2 7.1x 7.0x 5.6x - - - 8.4x 15.4x 5.0x 7.3x EPS LFY 0.48 0.04 4.40 2.29 1.11 5.57 0.83 -0.32 1.12 6.34 LTM -0.25 0.20 1.77 2.38 0.28 5.58 -0.59 -0.15 0.49 1.86 CY+1 0.28 1.50 2.04 2.53 - 5.83 0.62 0.25 1.22 1.76 CY+2 0.61 2.76 2.75 3.02 - 6.42 1.20 0.08 1.89 2.46 P/E LFY - 34.4x 22.6x 13.7x 96.8x 12.0x - - 53.8x 25.0x LTM - 74.9x 22.6x 13.7x 97.0x 12.0x - - 32.1x 25.3x CY+1 29.7x 4.5x 19.6x 12.9x - 11.4x 31.8x 40.6x 21.7x 26.4x CY+2 13.5x 2.4x 14.6x 10.8x - 10.4x 16.6x 132.5x 14.0x 18.9x Revenue Growth 1 Year 28.6% 36.1% 33.4% 10.4% 15.3% 5.0% 13.2% 83.8% 5.6% 33.4% 5 Year - - 77.2% 9.3% 33.8% 14.0% 35.3% 595.7% 28.4% 83.9% EBITDA Growth 1 Year - (3.1%) (26.2%) (19.0%) (69.4%) 2.5% 58.3% 46.2% 2.7% 159.8% 5 Year - 83.9% 17.2% 1.0% 3.1% 14.1% - - 18.6% 41.9% EBITDA Margin LTM 22.4% 28.4% 8.0% 3.1% 3.0% 14.0% 20.5% 12.8% 32.2% 9.9% CY+1 23.4% 39.1% 10.3% 3.7% - 13.6% 23.7% 22.3% 41.4% 9.4% CY+2 27.4% 39.6% 11.3% 4.4% - 14.2% 23.5% 25.2% 42.8% 10.5% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 14.6% 188.2% 93.2% 57.4% 233.5% 73.3% 46.0% 16.9% 60.9% 54.8% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / Capital % 12.6% 48.9% 35.4% 36.2% 70.0% 42.1% 31.5% 14.4% 37.8% 34.3% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / EBITDA 3.094x 3.956x 2.936x 3.375x 11.165x 1.968x 4.023x 3.555x 3.791x 4.307x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Net Debt / EBITDA 0.941x 3.358x 1.992x 2.311x 9.495x 1.281x 3.337x -0.045x 2.283x 3.449x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE EBITDA / Int. Expense 2.550x 2.210x 3.388x 6.451x 2.360x 13.570x 9.748x 0.573x 7.945x 9.844x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating - - BB A *- - BBB - - BB+ BB FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE S&P LT Credit Rating Date - - 21.10.2010 19.10.2012 - 24.11.2008 - - 22.12.2011 21.10.2010 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating - - - A2 - Baa2 - - - WR FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - - 12.11.2004 - 14.02.2008 - - - 15.05.2011 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |