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21.02.2013



                                                                                        Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                   NOV UN             National Oilwell Varco Inc                                    Benchmark:                                          National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components
Currency:                                    New York: NOV, Currency: USD                                  S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                                 used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply
                                                                                                                                                               chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
Sector: Energy       Industry: Energy Equipment & Services                                                    Year:
Telephone         713-346-7500                         Revenue (M)                               20'041    Business Segments in USD                                    Sales (M)    Geographic Segments in USD                                 Sales (M)
Website           www.nov.com                          No of Employees                         #N/A N/A    Rig Technology                                                 10107     United States                                                      1
Address           7909 Parkwood Circle Drive Houston, TX 77036 United States                               Petroleum Services & Supplies                                   6967     Other
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                             Distribution Services                                           3927     South Korea
Price                              67.84               1M Return                                  -6.8%    Elimination                                                      -960    Canada
52 Week High                       89.08               6M Return                                 -12.9%                                                                             Singapore
52 Week Low                        58.87               52 Wk Return                              -19.3%                                                                             Norway
52 Wk Beta                           1.47              YTD Return                                 -0.7%                                                                             United Kingdom
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                  IG5                                                                                                         4%
S&P                          A       Date                25.04.2012              Outlook        STABLE
Moody's                     A2       Date                -                       Outlook        STABLE                   18%
Fitch                        -       Date                -                       Outlook             -
Valuation Ratios
                         12/09      12/10       12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E                                                         46%
P/E                      11.3x      16.6x       14.3x         11.6x     11.4x         10.0x         9.0x
EV/EBIT                    6.8x     10.6x         8.8x          8.2x         -             -           -
EV/EBITDA                  5.7x       8.8x        7.4x             -      6.4x          5.7x        5.3x
P/S                        1.4x       2.3x        2.0x          1.4x      1.3x          1.2x        1.1x
P/B                        1.3x       1.8x        1.6x          1.4x      1.3x          1.1x        1.0x                  32%
Div Yield                 2.5%       0.6%        0.7%          0.7%      0.7%          0.8%        0.8%                                                                                                           100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09        12/10       12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E
                                                                                                                               Rig Technology
Gross Margin            29.8         31.5        30.7          27.0      27.4          28.7        29.3
EBITDA Margin           23.2         24.3        23.8             -      20.0          20.9        21.4
                                                                                                                               Petroleum Services & Supplies
Operating Margin        19.4         20.1        20.0          17.7      16.7          17.9        18.3
Profit Margin           11.6         13.7        13.6          12.4      11.2          12.0        12.5                                                                                                            United States
                                                                                                                               Distribution Services
Return on Assets          6.8         7.5         8.2           8.7      11.1          11.5           -
Return on Equity        11.0         11.2        12.0          13.2      12.0          12.4        12.1                        Elimination
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09        12/10       12/11         12/12
Current Ratio             2.3         2.3         2.2           2.8                                        Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               1.2         1.3         1.3           1.4                                        Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                                       423.9
EBIT/Interest           46.5         48.9        73.4          73.9                                        Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                         28961.3
Tot Debt/Capital          0.1         0.1         0.0           0.1                                        Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                        3319.0
Tot Debt/Equity           0.1         0.1         0.0           0.2                                        Total Debt (M)                                                                                                     3149.0
Eff Tax Rate %          33.3         30.8        32.1          29.2                                        Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                                  0.0
                                                                                                           LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                             0.0
                                                                                                           Investments (M)                                                                                                     117.0
                                                                                                           Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                              28908.3



                                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
National Oilwell Varco Inc
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                         Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                                   120           120
                        100%      0%         0%        0%      0%        0%        0%         3%        3%          3%            0%         0%       0%
                                  6%         7%       10%      7%        7%        7%
                                                                                              7%        6%          6%           12%         15%                                 100
                                                                                                                                                     20%
                                                                                                                                                                   100
                        80%                                                                                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                                                                   60
                                                                                                                                                                   80
                        60%                                                                                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                   60              20
                                  94%       93%       90%      93%       93%       93%       90%       91%          91%          88%         85%                                     0
                        40%                                                                                                                          80%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Morgan Stanley




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        BMO Capital Markets




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ameriprise Advisor Services,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Barclays
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             RBC Capital Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Fearnley Fonds




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Iberia Capital Partners LLC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Credit Agricole Securities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             RS Platou Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Raymond James




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S&P Capital IQ
                                                                                                                                                                                         Capital One Southcoast, Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Global Hunter Securities




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ISI Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sanford C. Bernstein & Co




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Macquarie
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Credit Suisse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  JPMorgan




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sterne, Agee & Leach


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Edward Jones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dahlman Rose & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                HSBC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Societe Generale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Guggenheim Securities LLC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Argus Research Corp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EVA Dimensions




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tudor Pickering & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Goldman Sachs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Johnson Rice & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jefferies




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             William Blair & Co


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Susquehanna Financial Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Howard Weil Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
                                                                                                                                                                   40

                        20%
                                                                                                                                                                   20


                         0%                                                                                                                                        0
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12    juin.12   juil.12   août.12   sept.12      oct.12       nov.12     déc.12   janv.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold        Sell       Price              Target Price

                               Date                     Buy              Hold               Sell                       Date                Price Target Price                    Broker                                                                                                                                                                                                                Analyst                                                                                                                                                                           Recommendation                                                                                                                                                                      Target                                                                                      Date
                               31-Jan-13                80%               20%               0%                      21-Feb-13               67.84          85.39                 Capital One Southcoast, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                         JOSEPH D GIBNEY                                                                                                                                                                                                        add                                                                                                                                                                 90.00                                           20-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                85%               15%               0%                      20-Feb-13               67.84          85.39                 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC                                                                                                                                                                                          THOMAS PATRICK CURRAN                                                                                                                                                                                             outperform                                                                                                                                                                                                               20-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12                88%               12%               0%                      19-Feb-13               69.48          85.39                 Guggenheim Securities LLC                                                                                                                                                                                            DARREN GACICIA                                                                                                                                                                                                       neutral                                                                                                                                                               71.00                                           20-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12                91%                6%               3%                      18-Feb-13               69.33          85.39                 Global Hunter Securities                                                                                                                                                                                             BRIAN UHLMER                                                                                                                                                                                                           buy                                                                                                                                                                 80.00                                           20-Feb-13
                               28-Sep-12                91%                6%               3%                      15-Feb-13               69.33          85.39                 RBC Capital Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                  KURT HALLEAD                                                                                                                                                                                                    sector perform                                                                                                                                                             80.00                                           19-Feb-13
                               31-Aug-12                90%                7%               3%                      14-Feb-13               70.29          85.39                 Fearnley Fonds                                                                                                                                                                                                       TRULS OLSEN                                                                                                                                                                                                       accumulate                                                                                                                                                               81.00                                           15-Feb-13
                               31-Jul-12                93%                7%               0%                      13-Feb-13               68.96          85.39                 Sanford C. Bernstein & Co                                                                                                                                                                                            SCOTT GRUBER                                                                                                                                                                                                    market perform                                                                                                                                                             80.00                                           14-Feb-13
                               29-Jun-12                93%                7%               0%                      12-Feb-13               68.92          85.39                 Jefferies                                                                                                                                                                                                            BRAD HANDLER                                                                                                                                                                                                           buy                                                                                                                                                                 86.00                                           11-Feb-13
                               31-May-12                93%                7%               0%                      11-Feb-13               68.26          85.39                 Dahlman Rose & Co                                                                                                                                                                                                    JAMES D CRANDELL                                                                                                                                                                                                       buy                                                                                                                                                                 95.00                                           11-Feb-13
                               30-Apr-12                90%               10%               0%                       8-Feb-13               69.08          85.39                 HSBC                                                                                                                                                                                                                 DAVID PHILLIPS                                                                                                                                                                                                    overweight                                                                                                                                                               97.00                                            8-Feb-13
                               30-Mar-12                93%                7%               0%                       7-Feb-13               68.10          84.92                 Argus Research Corp                                                                                                                                                                                                  PHILIP H WEISS                                                                                                                                                                                                         buy                                                                                                                                                                 85.00                                            7-Feb-13
                               29-Feb-12                94%                6%               0%                       6-Feb-13               66.57          84.92                 EVA Dimensions                                                                                                                                                                                                       CRAIG STERLING                                                                                                                                                                                                    overweight                                                                                                                                                                                                                7-Feb-13
                                                                                                                     5-Feb-13               68.21          85.32                 Howard Weil Inc                                                                                                                                                                                                      WILLIAM SANCHEZ                                                                                                                                                                                                 sector perform                                                                                                                                                             85.00                                            6-Feb-13
                                                                                                                     4-Feb-13               70.17          85.68                 Iberia Capital Partners LLC                                                                                                                                                                                          TREY STOLZ                                                                                                                                                                                                        outperform                                                                                                                                                               93.00                                            5-Feb-13
                                                                                                                     1-Feb-13               71.26          86.83                 Societe Generale                                                                                                                                                                                                     EDWARD C MUZTAFAGO                                                                                                                                                                                                     buy                                                                                                                                                                 82.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    31-Jan-13               74.14          89.12                 Morgan Stanley                                                                                                                                                                                                       OLE SLORER                                                                                                                                                                                                     Equalwt/Attractive                                                                                                                                                          80.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    30-Jan-13               73.66          89.83                 Goldman Sachs                                                                                                                                                                                                        WAQAR SYED                                                                                                                                                                                                       buy/attractive                                                                                                                                                            90.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    29-Jan-13               74.12          89.83                 Credit Suisse                                                                                                                                                                                                        JAMES WICKLUND                                                                                                                                                                                                       neutral                                                                                                                                                               74.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    28-Jan-13               73.62          89.83                 JPMorgan                                                                                                                                                                                                             J DAVID ANDERSON                                                                                                                                                                                                  overweight                                                                                                                                                               89.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    25-Jan-13               74.00          90.00                 William Blair & Co                                                                                                                                                                                                   BRANDON DOBELL                                                                                                                                                                                                    outperform                                                                                                                                                                                                                4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    24-Jan-13               73.76          90.00                 Raymond James                                                                                                                                                                                                        J MARSHALL ADKINS                                                                                                                                                                                                 outperform                                                                                                                                                               90.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    23-Jan-13               73.67          90.85                 Susquehanna Financial Group                                                                                                                                                                                          CHARLES P MINERVINO                                                                                                                                                                                                 Positive                                                                                                                                                               83.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    22-Jan-13               73.79          90.85                 Credit Agricole Securities (USA)                                                                                                                                                                                     DAVID S HAVENS                                                                                                                                                                                                    outperform                                                                                                                                                               80.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    21-Jan-13               72.76          91.04                 RS Platou Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                    GORAN ANDREASSEN                                                                                                                                                                                                       buy                                                                                                                                                                 87.00                                            4-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    18-Jan-13               72.76          91.04                 Sterne, Agee & Leach                                                                                                                                                                                                 STEPHEN D GENGARO                                                                                                                                                                                                      buy                                                                                                                                                                 86.00                                            3-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    17-Jan-13               71.73          91.04                 BMO Capital Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                  ALAN D LAWS                                                                                                                                                                                                       outperform                                                                                                                                                               90.00                                            1-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    16-Jan-13               70.42          91.04                 Edward Jones                                                                                                                                                                                                         BRIAN YOUNGBERG                                                                                                                                                                                                        buy                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    15-Jan-13               70.24          91.04                 Johnson Rice & Co                                                                                                                                                                                                    DAVID C SMITH                                                                                                                                                                                                     equalweight                                                                                                                                                                                                               1-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    14-Jan-13               70.34          91.15                 ISI Group                                                                                                                                                                                                            JUDSON E BAILEY                                                                                                                                                                                                        buy                                                                                                                                                                 80.00                                            1-Feb-13
                                                                                                                    11-Jan-13               70.89          91.58                 S&P Capital IQ                                                                                                                                                                                                       STEWART GLICKMAN                                                                                                                                                                                                   strong buy                                                                                                                                                              95.00                                            1-Feb-13

                                                                                                                Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
21.02.2013



National Oilwell Varco Inc
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                           Geographic Ownership
                                                                                           0%
                                                                                          2%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          423.9                                                                                 United States                             84.56%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1% 1% 4%
Float                                           99.7%                                                                                 Britain                                   4.70%                                  1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1%
Short Interest (M)                                 4.3                                                                                Canada                                    1.91%                        2%
Short Interest as % of Float                    1.02%                                                                                 Japan                                     1.50%                        5%
Days to Cover Shorts                              1.43                                                                                France                                    1.06%
Institutional Ownership                       102.26%                                                                                 Germany                                   1.00%
Retail Ownership                               -2.52%                                                                                 Switzerland                               0.90%
Insider Ownership                               0.26%                                                                                 Others                                    4.37%

                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution                                                                 85%
                                                                                              98%                                     Investment Advisor                        86.98%
                                                                                                                                      Hedge Fund Manager                        4.73%
                                                                                                                                      Pension Fund (Erisa)                      2.46%
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Mutual Fund Manager                       1.93%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    United States      Britain        Canada          Japan
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                Others                                    3.90%               France             Germany        Switzerland     Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                   Source      Country
BLACKROCK                                   30'642'899                   0                     2'078'814'268              7.18%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES                          2%           4%
VANGUARD GROUP INC                          19'278'074             138'815                     1'307'824'540              4.52%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES                         2%
STATE STREET                                18'479'141             561'297                     1'253'624'925              4.33%                       19.02.2013   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES                        5%
FMR LLC                                     18'049'001          -5'431'601                     1'224'444'228              4.23%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES
SANDS CAPITAL MANAGE                         9'422'878             335'621                       639'248'044              2.21%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC                         8'339'871           1'475'345                       565'776'849              1.95%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
NORTHERN TRUST CORPO                         8'217'551            -143'556                       557'478'660              1.92%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL                         7'646'149             284'855                       518'714'748              1.79%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
MASSACHUSETTS FINANC                         7'267'860           1'344'474                       493'051'622              1.70%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
JP MORGAN                                    6'813'302             864'892                       462'214'408              1.60%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG                                                              87%
WADDELL & REED FINAN                         5'457'809            -646'995                       370'257'763              1.28%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL                         5'444'048          -1'845'531                       369'324'216              1.28%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY I                         5'294'800           1'108'000                       359'199'232              1.24%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES
CLEARBRIDGE INVESTME                         5'260'359             -55'991                       356'862'755              1.23%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES   Investment Advisor        Hedge Fund Manager      Pension Fund (Erisa)
                                                                                                                                                                                             Mutual Fund Manager       Others
HARRIS ASSOCIATES LP                         5'205'684             527'011                       353'153'603              1.22%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN                           5'199'627            -603'509                       352'742'696              1.22%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES
MARSICO CAPITAL MANA                         5'020'360          -1'307'778                       340'581'222              1.18%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN                         4'932'898          -1'209'184                       334'647'800              1.16%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
JANUS CAPITAL MANAGE                         4'611'502           1'102'310                       312'844'296              1.08%                       31.12.2012   ULT-AGG   UNITED STATES
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                         3'863'917             445'416                       262'128'129              0.91%                       31.12.2012     13F     UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                       Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
MILLER JR MERRILL A                           535'904                -2'500                        36'355'727              0.13%                      30.11.2012   Form 4
WILLIAMS CLAY C                               162'879                21'000                        11'049'711              0.04%                      15.02.2013   Form 4
RETTIG DWIGHT W                                61'754                13'000                         4'189'391              0.01%                      15.02.2013   Form 4
THIGPEN JEREMY D                               50'638                16'000                         3'435'282              0.01%                      15.02.2013   Form 4
MATTSON ERIC L                                 48'600                 2'594                         3'297'024              0.01%                      16.05.2012   Form 4




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
National Oilwell Varco Inc
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                                Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                               1'522        2'005    2'318       4'645       7'026        9'789      13'431      12'712       12'156   14'658   20'041   22'613      24'187        25'290
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                1'160        1'541    1'822       3'657       5'265        6'959       9'360       8'928        8'324   10'161   14'628

Gross Income                                           362           464     496         987        1'761        2'830       4'072        3'784       3'832    4'497    5'413    6'193       6'946         7'418
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                  228           305     328         479          642          786       1'154        1'322       1'385    1'560    1'868
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                       134           159     169         509        1'119        2'044       2'918        2'462       2'447    2'937    3'545    3'778       4'320         4'620
  - Interest Expense                                    27            39      38          53           49           50          67           53          50       40       48
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                                    0       0           0            0            0           0            0           0        0        0
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                     -6            3      -1          26           21          -35        -111          201           0      -25       -8

Pretax Income                                          113           117     132         430        1'049        2'029       2'961        2'208       2'397    2'922    3'505    3'713       4'224         4'583
  - Income Tax Expense                                  39            34      19         139          356          676         993          735         738      937    1'022

Income Before XO Items                                   74           83     112         291          694        1'353       1'969        1'473       1'659    1'985    2'483
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                                     0       0           0            0            0           0            0           0        0        0
   - Minority Interests                                   1            6       2           4           10           16          17            4          -8       -9       -8

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                           0.45          0.45    0.64        0.91         1.94        3.76        4.90         3.52        3.98     4.70     5.83

Net Income Adjusted*                                     73            84      95        308          684        1'337       2'024        1'621       1'696    2'021    2'520    2'534       2'902         3'154
EPS Adjusted                                          0.45          0.49    0.55        0.98         1.94        3.76        5.08         3.88        4.09     4.77     5.91     5.96        6.81          7.51
Dividends Per Share                                                 0.00    0.00        0.00         0.00        0.00        0.00         1.10        0.41     0.45     0.49     0.51        0.53          0.54
        Payout Ratio %                                               0.0                 0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0        31.3        10.3       9.6      8.4    0.08        0.08          0.07

Total Shares Outstanding                               162           170     172         349          351         357          417         418         421      424      424
Diluted Shares Outstanding                             163           170     173         317          354         355          399         417         419      424      427

EBITDA                                                 159           198     213         623        1'280        2'259       3'319        2'952       2'954    3'492             4'533       5'044         5'412

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                             12/02    12/03    12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   1123.634   1246.4   1537.4      2998.2      4965.6      7593.8       9657.2        9598       10535    12110    15678
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                  118      74      143          209         957       1'842        1'543        2'622       3'333    3'535    3'319
  + Short Term Investments                             0        0           0           0           0            0            0           0        0        0
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable            428      461      480        1'139       1'615       2'100        3'136        2'187       2'425    3'291    4'320
  + Inventories                            524      654      884        1'540       2'138       3'218        4'425        4'230       4'203    4'623    7'116
  + Other Current Assets                    53       57       31          109         256         434          554          559         574      661      923

Total Long-Term Assets                     854      996     1'061       3'680       4'054        4'521      11'822      11'934       12'515   13'405   15'806
  + Long Term Investments                             0         0           0           0            0           0           0            0        0        0
         Gross Fixed Assets                368      450       506       1'167       1'396        1'710       2'329       2'701        2'903    3'660
         Accumulated Depreciation          160      197       251         290         374          513         653         865        1'063    1'215
  + Net Fixed Assets                       208      252       255         878       1'022        1'197       1'677       1'836        1'840    2'445    2'945
  + Other Long Term Assets                 645      744       806       2'803       3'032        3'324      10'145      10'098       10'675   10'960   12'861

Total Current Liabilities                  355      452      800        1'187       2'665        4'027       5'624        4'174       4'536    5'416    5'649
  + Accounts Payable                       169      229      408          568         505          604         852          584         628      901    1'200
  + Short Term Borrowings                            15      150            6           6          153           4            7         373      351        1
  + Other Short Term Liabilities           186      209      243          613       2'154        3'270       4'767        3'583       3'535    4'164    4'448

Total Long Term Liabilities                679      684      484        1'273       1'295        1'364       3'132        3'130       2'652    2'371    5'479
  + Long Term Borrowings                   595      594      350          836         835          738         870          876         514      159    3'148
  + Other Long Term Borrowings              85       90      134          437         460          626       2'262        2'254       2'138    2'212    2'331

Total Liabilities                         1'034    1'137    1'285       2'460       3'960        5'391       8'755        7'304       7'188    7'787   11'128
  + Long Preferred Equity                              0        0           0           0            0           0            0           0        0        0
  + Minority Interest                       10        16       18          25          36           63          96          115         114      109      117
  + Share Capital & APIC                   596       676      694       3'403       3'464        3'621       7'993        8'218       8'357    8'539    8'747
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity       338       415      603         792       1'560        3'041       4'634        5'895       7'391    9'080   11'492

Total Shareholders Equity                  943     1'106    1'314       4'219       5'059        6'724      12'724      14'228       15'862   17'728   20'356

Total Liabilities & Equity                1'977    2'243    2'599       6'679       9'019       12'115      21'479      21'532       23'050   25'515   31'484

Book Value Per Share                       5.76     6.40     7.54       12.03       14.31        18.67       30.26       33.73        37.39    41.56    47.74    52.82    59.04    66.33
  Tangible Book Value Per Share            2.17     2.49     3.29        4.20        5.91         9.65        7.43       10.93        13.91    17.45    19.64




                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02   12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11    12/12   12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                                73      77    110          287         684        1'337       1'952        1'469      1'667   1'994    2'491    2'524    2'867    3'063
  + Depreciation & Amortization           25      39     44          115         161          214         402          490        507     555
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments           -43      12     41          162       1'130          422          94          166         87     144
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital           49     -97    -29         -486        -758         -785        -154          -30       -719    -550

Cash From Operating Activities          104       31    166           78       1'217        1'188       2'294        2'095      1'542   2'143
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets                       8     36            0           0            0           0            0          0       0
  + Capital Expenditures                 -25     -32    -39         -105        -200         -252        -379         -250       -232    -483              -586     -560     -611
  + Increase in Investments                        0      0            0           0            0           0            0          0       0
  + Decrease in Investments                        0      0            0           0            0           0            0          0       0
  + Other Investing Activities          -201     -78     -3          143        -330         -323      -2'095         -302       -511    -975

Cash From Investing Activities          -225    -102      -6          38        -530         -575      -2'473        -552        -743   -1'458
  + Dividends Paid                                 0       0           0           0            0           0        -460        -172     -191
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings      -8        0       0           0           0            0           0           0           0        0
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings    199      455     522         419          30           47       2'731           7           3        0
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings            -439    -632        -571         -35          -12      -2'920         -47         -16     -391
  + Increase in Capital Stocks            2       10      15         112          46          114         115           9          83      118
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks                     0       0           0           0            0           0           0           0        0
  + Other Financing Activities            3        2       4          -8          20          122         -46          27          14      -19

Cash From Financing Activities          196      27      -92         -49          61         271         -120        -464         -88    -483

Net Changes in Cash                      75      -44     69          67          748         884         -299        1'079       711      202

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)               80       -1    127          -28       1'016         936        1'916        1'845      1'310   1'660             2'509    2'919    2'981

Free Cash Flow To Firm                   97      26     160            8       1'048         970        1'960        1'880      1'345   1'687
Free Cash Flow To Equity                                  53        -180       1'011         972        1'727        1'805      1'297   1'269
Free Cash Flow per Share                0.49   -0.01    0.74       -0.09        2.90         2.64        4.82         4.44       3.14    3.93




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/02   12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                     24.5x   22.8x   32.1x       32.2x       15.7x        19.5x         4.8x       11.3x      16.6x   14.3x   11.6x     11.4x    10.0x     9.0x
  EV to EBIT                         16.8x   15.4x   20.2x       22.8x        9.5x        12.4x         3.3x        6.8x      10.6x    8.8x    8.2x
  EV to EBITDA                       14.2x   12.4x   16.0x       18.6x        8.3x        11.2x         2.9x        5.7x       8.8x    7.4x              6.4x     5.7x     5.3x
  Price to Sales                      1.2x    0.9x    1.3x        2.1x        1.5x         2.7x         0.7x        1.4x       2.3x    2.0x     1.4x     1.3x     1.2x     1.1x
  Price to Book                       1.9x    1.7x    2.3x        2.6x        2.1x         3.9x         0.8x        1.3x       1.8x    1.6x     1.4x     1.3x     1.1x     1.0x
  Dividend Yield                             0.0%    0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        2.5%       0.6%    0.7%     0.7%     0.7%     0.8%     0.8%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                       23.8%   23.2%   21.4%      21.3%        25.1%       28.9%        30.3%       29.8%       31.5%   30.7%   27.0%    27.4%    28.7%    29.3%
  EBITDA Margin                      10.5%    9.9%    9.2%      13.4%        18.2%       23.1%        24.7%       23.2%       24.3%   23.8%            20.0%    20.9%    21.4%
  Operating Margin                    8.8%    7.9%    7.3%      10.9%        15.9%       20.9%        21.7%       19.4%       20.1%   20.0%   17.7%    16.7%    17.9%    18.3%
  Profit Margin                       4.8%    3.8%    4.8%       6.2%         9.7%       13.7%        14.5%       11.6%       13.7%   13.6%   12.4%    11.2%    12.0%    12.5%
  Return on Assets                    4.2%    3.6%    4.6%       6.2%         8.7%       12.7%        11.6%        6.8%        7.5%    8.2%    8.7%    11.1%    11.5%
  Return on Equity                    8.1%    7.6%    9.2%      10.5%        14.8%       22.9%        20.2%       11.0%       11.2%   12.0%   13.2%    12.0%    12.4%    12.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                       3.17    2.76    1.92        2.53        1.86         1.89        1.72        2.30        2.32    2.24    2.78
  Quick Ratio                         1.54    1.18    0.78        1.14        0.97         0.98        0.83        1.15        1.27    1.26    1.35
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)    4.92    4.08    4.39        9.61       22.98        40.64       43.35       46.45       48.94   73.43   73.85
  Tot Debt/Capital                    0.39    0.36    0.28        0.17        0.14         0.12        0.06        0.06        0.05    0.03    0.13
  Tot Debt/Equity                     0.63    0.55    0.38        0.20        0.17         0.13        0.07        0.06        0.06    0.03    0.15

Others
  Asset Turnover                      0.88    0.95    0.96        1.00        0.90         0.93        0.80        0.59        0.55    0.60    0.70
  Accounts Receivable Turnover        3.76    4.51    4.93        5.74        5.10         5.27        5.13        4.78        5.27    5.13    5.27
  Accounts Payable Turnover           7.45    8.42    6.45        8.84       10.92        14.50       14.52       12.16       13.69   13.84   16.30
  Inventory Turnover                  2.37    2.62    2.37        3.02        2.86         2.60        2.45        2.06        1.97    2.30    2.49

  Effective Tax Rate                 34.8%   28.9%   14.6%      32.3%        33.9%       33.3%        33.5%       33.3%       30.8%   32.1%   29.2%




                                                      Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

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Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

  • 1. 21.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: NOV UN National Oilwell Varco Inc Benchmark: National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components Currency: New York: NOV, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. Sector: Energy Industry: Energy Equipment & Services Year: Telephone 713-346-7500 Revenue (M) 20'041 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.nov.com No of Employees #N/A N/A Rig Technology 10107 United States 1 Address 7909 Parkwood Circle Drive Houston, TX 77036 United States Petroleum Services & Supplies 6967 Other Share Price Performance in USD Distribution Services 3927 South Korea Price 67.84 1M Return -6.8% Elimination -960 Canada 52 Week High 89.08 6M Return -12.9% Singapore 52 Week Low 58.87 52 Wk Return -19.3% Norway 52 Wk Beta 1.47 YTD Return -0.7% United Kingdom Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG5 4% S&P A Date 25.04.2012 Outlook STABLE Moody's A2 Date - Outlook STABLE 18% Fitch - Date - Outlook - Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E 46% P/E 11.3x 16.6x 14.3x 11.6x 11.4x 10.0x 9.0x EV/EBIT 6.8x 10.6x 8.8x 8.2x - - - EV/EBITDA 5.7x 8.8x 7.4x - 6.4x 5.7x 5.3x P/S 1.4x 2.3x 2.0x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x P/B 1.3x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x 32% Div Yield 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Rig Technology Gross Margin 29.8 31.5 30.7 27.0 27.4 28.7 29.3 EBITDA Margin 23.2 24.3 23.8 - 20.0 20.9 21.4 Petroleum Services & Supplies Operating Margin 19.4 20.1 20.0 17.7 16.7 17.9 18.3 Profit Margin 11.6 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.2 12.0 12.5 United States Distribution Services Return on Assets 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.7 11.1 11.5 - Return on Equity 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.2 12.0 12.4 12.1 Elimination Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.8 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 423.9 EBIT/Interest 46.5 48.9 73.4 73.9 Market Capitalization (M) 28961.3 Tot Debt/Capital 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Cash and ST Investments (M) 3319.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 Total Debt (M) 3149.0 Eff Tax Rate % 33.3 30.8 32.1 29.2 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 117.0 Enterprise Value (M) 28908.3 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings National Oilwell Varco Inc Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 120 120 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 6% 7% 10% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 12% 15% 100 20% 100 80% 80 60 80 60% 40 60 20 94% 93% 90% 93% 93% 93% 90% 91% 91% 88% 85% 0 40% 80% Morgan Stanley BMO Capital Markets Ameriprise Advisor Services, Barclays RBC Capital Markets Fearnley Fonds Iberia Capital Partners LLC Credit Agricole Securities RS Platou Markets Raymond James S&P Capital IQ Capital One Southcoast, Inc. Global Hunter Securities ISI Group Sanford C. Bernstein & Co Macquarie Credit Suisse JPMorgan Sterne, Agee & Leach Edward Jones Dahlman Rose & Co HSBC Societe Generale Guggenheim Securities LLC Argus Research Corp EVA Dimensions Tudor Pickering & Co Goldman Sachs Johnson Rice & Co Jefferies William Blair & Co Susquehanna Financial Group Howard Weil Inc Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 40 20% 20 0% 0 févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 80% 20% 0% 21-Feb-13 67.84 85.39 Capital One Southcoast, Inc. JOSEPH D GIBNEY add 90.00 20-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 85% 15% 0% 20-Feb-13 67.84 85.39 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC THOMAS PATRICK CURRAN outperform 20-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 88% 12% 0% 19-Feb-13 69.48 85.39 Guggenheim Securities LLC DARREN GACICIA neutral 71.00 20-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 91% 6% 3% 18-Feb-13 69.33 85.39 Global Hunter Securities BRIAN UHLMER buy 80.00 20-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 91% 6% 3% 15-Feb-13 69.33 85.39 RBC Capital Markets KURT HALLEAD sector perform 80.00 19-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 90% 7% 3% 14-Feb-13 70.29 85.39 Fearnley Fonds TRULS OLSEN accumulate 81.00 15-Feb-13 31-Jul-12 93% 7% 0% 13-Feb-13 68.96 85.39 Sanford C. Bernstein & Co SCOTT GRUBER market perform 80.00 14-Feb-13 29-Jun-12 93% 7% 0% 12-Feb-13 68.92 85.39 Jefferies BRAD HANDLER buy 86.00 11-Feb-13 31-May-12 93% 7% 0% 11-Feb-13 68.26 85.39 Dahlman Rose & Co JAMES D CRANDELL buy 95.00 11-Feb-13 30-Apr-12 90% 10% 0% 8-Feb-13 69.08 85.39 HSBC DAVID PHILLIPS overweight 97.00 8-Feb-13 30-Mar-12 93% 7% 0% 7-Feb-13 68.10 84.92 Argus Research Corp PHILIP H WEISS buy 85.00 7-Feb-13 29-Feb-12 94% 6% 0% 6-Feb-13 66.57 84.92 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING overweight 7-Feb-13 5-Feb-13 68.21 85.32 Howard Weil Inc WILLIAM SANCHEZ sector perform 85.00 6-Feb-13 4-Feb-13 70.17 85.68 Iberia Capital Partners LLC TREY STOLZ outperform 93.00 5-Feb-13 1-Feb-13 71.26 86.83 Societe Generale EDWARD C MUZTAFAGO buy 82.00 4-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 74.14 89.12 Morgan Stanley OLE SLORER Equalwt/Attractive 80.00 4-Feb-13 30-Jan-13 73.66 89.83 Goldman Sachs WAQAR SYED buy/attractive 90.00 4-Feb-13 29-Jan-13 74.12 89.83 Credit Suisse JAMES WICKLUND neutral 74.00 4-Feb-13 28-Jan-13 73.62 89.83 JPMorgan J DAVID ANDERSON overweight 89.00 4-Feb-13 25-Jan-13 74.00 90.00 William Blair & Co BRANDON DOBELL outperform 4-Feb-13 24-Jan-13 73.76 90.00 Raymond James J MARSHALL ADKINS outperform 90.00 4-Feb-13 23-Jan-13 73.67 90.85 Susquehanna Financial Group CHARLES P MINERVINO Positive 83.00 4-Feb-13 22-Jan-13 73.79 90.85 Credit Agricole Securities (USA) DAVID S HAVENS outperform 80.00 4-Feb-13 21-Jan-13 72.76 91.04 RS Platou Markets GORAN ANDREASSEN buy 87.00 4-Feb-13 18-Jan-13 72.76 91.04 Sterne, Agee & Leach STEPHEN D GENGARO buy 86.00 3-Feb-13 17-Jan-13 71.73 91.04 BMO Capital Markets ALAN D LAWS outperform 90.00 1-Feb-13 16-Jan-13 70.42 91.04 Edward Jones BRIAN YOUNGBERG buy 1-Feb-13 15-Jan-13 70.24 91.04 Johnson Rice & Co DAVID C SMITH equalweight 1-Feb-13 14-Jan-13 70.34 91.15 ISI Group JUDSON E BAILEY buy 80.00 1-Feb-13 11-Jan-13 70.89 91.58 S&P Capital IQ STEWART GLICKMAN strong buy 95.00 1-Feb-13 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 21.02.2013 National Oilwell Varco Inc Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 0% 2% Shares Outstanding (M) 423.9 United States 84.56% 1% 1% 4% Float 99.7% Britain 4.70% 1% 1% Short Interest (M) 4.3 Canada 1.91% 2% Short Interest as % of Float 1.02% Japan 1.50% 5% Days to Cover Shorts 1.43 France 1.06% Institutional Ownership 102.26% Germany 1.00% Retail Ownership -2.52% Switzerland 0.90% Insider Ownership 0.26% Others 4.37% Institutional Ownership Distribution 85% 98% Investment Advisor 86.98% Hedge Fund Manager 4.73% Pension Fund (Erisa) 2.46% Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Mutual Fund Manager 1.93% United States Britain Canada Japan Pricing data is in USD Others 3.90% France Germany Switzerland Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country BLACKROCK 30'642'899 0 2'078'814'268 7.18% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 2% 4% VANGUARD GROUP INC 19'278'074 138'815 1'307'824'540 4.52% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 2% STATE STREET 18'479'141 561'297 1'253'624'925 4.33% 19.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 5% FMR LLC 18'049'001 -5'431'601 1'224'444'228 4.23% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES SANDS CAPITAL MANAGE 9'422'878 335'621 639'248'044 2.21% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC 8'339'871 1'475'345 565'776'849 1.95% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES NORTHERN TRUST CORPO 8'217'551 -143'556 557'478'660 1.92% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 7'646'149 284'855 518'714'748 1.79% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES MASSACHUSETTS FINANC 7'267'860 1'344'474 493'051'622 1.70% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES JP MORGAN 6'813'302 864'892 462'214'408 1.60% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG 87% WADDELL & REED FINAN 5'457'809 -646'995 370'257'763 1.28% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL 5'444'048 -1'845'531 369'324'216 1.28% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY I 5'294'800 1'108'000 359'199'232 1.24% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES CLEARBRIDGE INVESTME 5'260'359 -55'991 356'862'755 1.23% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Investment Advisor Hedge Fund Manager Pension Fund (Erisa) Mutual Fund Manager Others HARRIS ASSOCIATES LP 5'205'684 527'011 353'153'603 1.22% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN 5'199'627 -603'509 352'742'696 1.22% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES MARSICO CAPITAL MANA 5'020'360 -1'307'778 340'581'222 1.18% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 4'932'898 -1'209'184 334'647'800 1.16% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES JANUS CAPITAL MANAGE 4'611'502 1'102'310 312'844'296 1.08% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 3'863'917 445'416 262'128'129 0.91% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source MILLER JR MERRILL A 535'904 -2'500 36'355'727 0.13% 30.11.2012 Form 4 WILLIAMS CLAY C 162'879 21'000 11'049'711 0.04% 15.02.2013 Form 4 RETTIG DWIGHT W 61'754 13'000 4'189'391 0.01% 15.02.2013 Form 4 THIGPEN JEREMY D 50'638 16'000 3'435'282 0.01% 15.02.2013 Form 4 MATTSON ERIC L 48'600 2'594 3'297'024 0.01% 16.05.2012 Form 4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV National Oilwell Varco Inc Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 1'522 2'005 2'318 4'645 7'026 9'789 13'431 12'712 12'156 14'658 20'041 22'613 24'187 25'290 - Cost of Goods Sold 1'160 1'541 1'822 3'657 5'265 6'959 9'360 8'928 8'324 10'161 14'628 Gross Income 362 464 496 987 1'761 2'830 4'072 3'784 3'832 4'497 5'413 6'193 6'946 7'418 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 228 305 328 479 642 786 1'154 1'322 1'385 1'560 1'868 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income 134 159 169 509 1'119 2'044 2'918 2'462 2'447 2'937 3'545 3'778 4'320 4'620 - Interest Expense 27 39 38 53 49 50 67 53 50 40 48 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -6 3 -1 26 21 -35 -111 201 0 -25 -8 Pretax Income 113 117 132 430 1'049 2'029 2'961 2'208 2'397 2'922 3'505 3'713 4'224 4'583 - Income Tax Expense 39 34 19 139 356 676 993 735 738 937 1'022 Income Before XO Items 74 83 112 291 694 1'353 1'969 1'473 1'659 1'985 2'483 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 1 6 2 4 10 16 17 4 -8 -9 -8 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.45 0.45 0.64 0.91 1.94 3.76 4.90 3.52 3.98 4.70 5.83 Net Income Adjusted* 73 84 95 308 684 1'337 2'024 1'621 1'696 2'021 2'520 2'534 2'902 3'154 EPS Adjusted 0.45 0.49 0.55 0.98 1.94 3.76 5.08 3.88 4.09 4.77 5.91 5.96 6.81 7.51 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.41 0.45 0.49 0.51 0.53 0.54 Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3 10.3 9.6 8.4 0.08 0.08 0.07 Total Shares Outstanding 162 170 172 349 351 357 417 418 421 424 424 Diluted Shares Outstanding 163 170 173 317 354 355 399 417 419 424 427 EBITDA 159 198 213 623 1'280 2'259 3'319 2'952 2'954 3'492 4'533 5'044 5'412 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 1123.634 1246.4 1537.4 2998.2 4965.6 7593.8 9657.2 9598 10535 12110 15678 + Cash & Near Cash Items 118 74 143 209 957 1'842 1'543 2'622 3'333 3'535 3'319 + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 428 461 480 1'139 1'615 2'100 3'136 2'187 2'425 3'291 4'320 + Inventories 524 654 884 1'540 2'138 3'218 4'425 4'230 4'203 4'623 7'116 + Other Current Assets 53 57 31 109 256 434 554 559 574 661 923 Total Long-Term Assets 854 996 1'061 3'680 4'054 4'521 11'822 11'934 12'515 13'405 15'806 + Long Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Fixed Assets 368 450 506 1'167 1'396 1'710 2'329 2'701 2'903 3'660 Accumulated Depreciation 160 197 251 290 374 513 653 865 1'063 1'215 + Net Fixed Assets 208 252 255 878 1'022 1'197 1'677 1'836 1'840 2'445 2'945 + Other Long Term Assets 645 744 806 2'803 3'032 3'324 10'145 10'098 10'675 10'960 12'861 Total Current Liabilities 355 452 800 1'187 2'665 4'027 5'624 4'174 4'536 5'416 5'649 + Accounts Payable 169 229 408 568 505 604 852 584 628 901 1'200 + Short Term Borrowings 15 150 6 6 153 4 7 373 351 1 + Other Short Term Liabilities 186 209 243 613 2'154 3'270 4'767 3'583 3'535 4'164 4'448 Total Long Term Liabilities 679 684 484 1'273 1'295 1'364 3'132 3'130 2'652 2'371 5'479 + Long Term Borrowings 595 594 350 836 835 738 870 876 514 159 3'148 + Other Long Term Borrowings 85 90 134 437 460 626 2'262 2'254 2'138 2'212 2'331 Total Liabilities 1'034 1'137 1'285 2'460 3'960 5'391 8'755 7'304 7'188 7'787 11'128 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 10 16 18 25 36 63 96 115 114 109 117 + Share Capital & APIC 596 676 694 3'403 3'464 3'621 7'993 8'218 8'357 8'539 8'747 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 338 415 603 792 1'560 3'041 4'634 5'895 7'391 9'080 11'492 Total Shareholders Equity 943 1'106 1'314 4'219 5'059 6'724 12'724 14'228 15'862 17'728 20'356 Total Liabilities & Equity 1'977 2'243 2'599 6'679 9'019 12'115 21'479 21'532 23'050 25'515 31'484 Book Value Per Share 5.76 6.40 7.54 12.03 14.31 18.67 30.26 33.73 37.39 41.56 47.74 52.82 59.04 66.33 Tangible Book Value Per Share 2.17 2.49 3.29 4.20 5.91 9.65 7.43 10.93 13.91 17.45 19.64 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income 73 77 110 287 684 1'337 1'952 1'469 1'667 1'994 2'491 2'524 2'867 3'063 + Depreciation & Amortization 25 39 44 115 161 214 402 490 507 555 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments -43 12 41 162 1'130 422 94 166 87 144 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 49 -97 -29 -486 -758 -785 -154 -30 -719 -550 Cash From Operating Activities 104 31 166 78 1'217 1'188 2'294 2'095 1'542 2'143 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 8 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Capital Expenditures -25 -32 -39 -105 -200 -252 -379 -250 -232 -483 -586 -560 -611 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -201 -78 -3 143 -330 -323 -2'095 -302 -511 -975 Cash From Investing Activities -225 -102 -6 38 -530 -575 -2'473 -552 -743 -1'458 + Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 -460 -172 -191 + Change in Short Term Borrowings -8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 199 455 522 419 30 47 2'731 7 3 0 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -439 -632 -571 -35 -12 -2'920 -47 -16 -391 + Increase in Capital Stocks 2 10 15 112 46 114 115 9 83 118 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Financing Activities 3 2 4 -8 20 122 -46 27 14 -19 Cash From Financing Activities 196 27 -92 -49 61 271 -120 -464 -88 -483 Net Changes in Cash 75 -44 69 67 748 884 -299 1'079 711 202 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 80 -1 127 -28 1'016 936 1'916 1'845 1'310 1'660 2'509 2'919 2'981 Free Cash Flow To Firm 97 26 160 8 1'048 970 1'960 1'880 1'345 1'687 Free Cash Flow To Equity 53 -180 1'011 972 1'727 1'805 1'297 1'269 Free Cash Flow per Share 0.49 -0.01 0.74 -0.09 2.90 2.64 4.82 4.44 3.14 3.93 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 24.5x 22.8x 32.1x 32.2x 15.7x 19.5x 4.8x 11.3x 16.6x 14.3x 11.6x 11.4x 10.0x 9.0x EV to EBIT 16.8x 15.4x 20.2x 22.8x 9.5x 12.4x 3.3x 6.8x 10.6x 8.8x 8.2x EV to EBITDA 14.2x 12.4x 16.0x 18.6x 8.3x 11.2x 2.9x 5.7x 8.8x 7.4x 6.4x 5.7x 5.3x Price to Sales 1.2x 0.9x 1.3x 2.1x 1.5x 2.7x 0.7x 1.4x 2.3x 2.0x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x Price to Book 1.9x 1.7x 2.3x 2.6x 2.1x 3.9x 0.8x 1.3x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 23.8% 23.2% 21.4% 21.3% 25.1% 28.9% 30.3% 29.8% 31.5% 30.7% 27.0% 27.4% 28.7% 29.3% EBITDA Margin 10.5% 9.9% 9.2% 13.4% 18.2% 23.1% 24.7% 23.2% 24.3% 23.8% 20.0% 20.9% 21.4% Operating Margin 8.8% 7.9% 7.3% 10.9% 15.9% 20.9% 21.7% 19.4% 20.1% 20.0% 17.7% 16.7% 17.9% 18.3% Profit Margin 4.8% 3.8% 4.8% 6.2% 9.7% 13.7% 14.5% 11.6% 13.7% 13.6% 12.4% 11.2% 12.0% 12.5% Return on Assets 4.2% 3.6% 4.6% 6.2% 8.7% 12.7% 11.6% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.7% 11.1% 11.5% Return on Equity 8.1% 7.6% 9.2% 10.5% 14.8% 22.9% 20.2% 11.0% 11.2% 12.0% 13.2% 12.0% 12.4% 12.1% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 3.17 2.76 1.92 2.53 1.86 1.89 1.72 2.30 2.32 2.24 2.78 Quick Ratio 1.54 1.18 0.78 1.14 0.97 0.98 0.83 1.15 1.27 1.26 1.35 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 4.92 4.08 4.39 9.61 22.98 40.64 43.35 46.45 48.94 73.43 73.85 Tot Debt/Capital 0.39 0.36 0.28 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.13 Tot Debt/Equity 0.63 0.55 0.38 0.20 0.17 0.13 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.15 Others Asset Turnover 0.88 0.95 0.96 1.00 0.90 0.93 0.80 0.59 0.55 0.60 0.70 Accounts Receivable Turnover 3.76 4.51 4.93 5.74 5.10 5.27 5.13 4.78 5.27 5.13 5.27 Accounts Payable Turnover 7.45 8.42 6.45 8.84 10.92 14.50 14.52 12.16 13.69 13.84 16.30 Inventory Turnover 2.37 2.62 2.37 3.02 2.86 2.60 2.45 2.06 1.97 2.30 2.49 Effective Tax Rate 34.8% 28.9% 14.6% 32.3% 33.9% 33.3% 33.5% 33.3% 30.8% 32.1% 29.2% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |