Presentation by Mr. Eric Yao, co-ordinator of The Africa Centre, Dublin, and a farmer in Ghana, on the effects that a changing climate has had on his business.

1. Climate Change in Africa: Impacts on Agriculture Prof. John Sweeney, Department of Geography NUI MAYNOOTH Ollscoil na Éireann Má Nuad Food Security & Climate Change in Africa – A community solution. 20 th May 2010

3. Thomas Malthus on Population and Resources

5. The Green Revolution First green revolution (developed countries) Second green revolution (developing countries) Major International agricultural research centres and seed banks

6. Heavier heads required: more fertilizer, water, hybrids with shorter stalks (to prevent lodging) Higher density plantings required: more fertilizer, constant water, hybrids with smaller root system More plantings per year required: more fertilizer, year round water, pesticides

7. Total World Grain Production 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Grain production (millions of tons) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

8. 400 350 300 250 150 Per capita grain production (kilograms per person) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Per Capita World Grain Production 200

9. Population Growth 2000-2080 Source: Lutz et al., 2001

10. Africa by 2050 will have a population equivalent to that of Europe, Australasia and the Americas combined

12. Compounding Impacts of Climate Variability

13. Climate variability has huge impacts on poverty & livelihoods Relationship holds even in diverse middle income economies with substantial water storage infrastructure e.g. Morocco

15. (Source: Le Houérou et al, 2006)

17. Rainfall trends in the Sahel 147 241 Tombouctou 97 210 Agadez 116 178 Khartoum 54 92 Atbara 1970-1984 (mm) 1950-1959 (mm)

26. C3 crops outperform C4 crops with higher CO2 concentrations

27. Crop yield response to temperature change IPCC WG-II (2007) Without adaptation With adaptation

28. Cereal production in developed and developing countries

29. Projected changes in crop yields

30. Suitability for rainfed cereals 1961-90 Suitability for rainfed cereals 2080’s A1FI

31. Suitability for coffee in Uganda IPCC WG-I (2007)

36. Vulnerability to climate change (A2) in 2050 Without adaptation With adaptation

37. The State of Food Insecurity (Source: FAO, 2001)

38. Source: Fischer et al., 2002 Number of People at Risk of Hunger projected for different IPCC economic development paths AFRICA SOUTH, SOUTHEAST and EAST ASIA

40. Climate effects on crop yields Yield Climate Temperature + Rainfall Growth duration Water availability Resource use efficiencies Soil Weeds, Pests, diseases Freshwater

41. Adaptation Yield Climate Temperature + Rainfall Growth duration Water availability Resource use efficiencies Soil Weeds, Pests, diseases Freshwater Microclimate modification Change crops Irrigation Soil management Cropping system diversity

42. Teleconnections in Sahel

45. Greenhouse gas emissions

46. Climate Change Impacts and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ECHAM4, 2080s Fairness and Equity? Greenhouse gas emissions since 1950: 75% from developed countries, 25% from developing countries

47. Probability of occurrence Average Hot Cold - “mean” effect - “variance” effect combined “mean + variance” Climate change effects on extreme temperatures Current climate After Timbal,B and McAvaney, B. Very Hot More record hot weather More record hot weather More record hot weather More record cold weather Future climate