1. Scenario Planning
Step 1: Choose a Focal Issue (and Timeframe)
Choose a big, wide issue of importance to you, your organization, your project, your
family, your nation, etc.
Step 2: Choose Your Critical Uncertainties
Make some basic assumptions
Create a list of critical uncertainties that have identifiable possibile outcomes, and choose
2 that will work well together
Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2)
Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant
Step 4: Create scenarios (stories) explaining how each
quadrant might happen
Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family,
project, etc) could act most effectively in each situation
Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of
these scenarios might be playing out
Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years