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MONGOLIA
UNIQUE POTENTIAL FOR EXPONENTIAL GROWTH




                 2011
COUNTRY DATA
                        Total Area :       1.56 mln sq. km
                     East to West :        2,392 km (1,487 miles)
                   North to South :        1,259 km (782 miles)
                       Capital city :      Ulaanbaatar
                       Population :        2.7 million
          Least densely populated :        2 individuals per sq.km
                     Literacy rate :       97.8%
                       GDP 2010 :          USD 6.1 billion
                           Exports:        USD 2.9 billion
                           Imports:        USD 3.2 billion


KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
           GDP Current price (US$ Million), Real growth (%)
                                                                                                    2007     2008     2009     2010
                                                              6.1%
6,000                                                                    Nominal GDP, USD mln       3,931   4,837     4,197    6,088
                                    9.0%
5,000                                                                     GDP Growth Rate, %        10.2      9        -1.3        6.1
                                                  -1.3%
                      10.2%                                              GDP per capital, USD       1,490   1,819     1,532    1,532
4,000
           8.6%
3,000                                                                          Inflation             15       22       4.2         4.2
                                                                               USD rate             1,170   1,268     1,443    1,443
2,000
                                                                           Exports, USD mln         1,949   2,539     1,902    1,902
1,000
                                                                        Trade Balance, USD mln      114,3    -710    -228,7    -228,7
    0
           2006        2007         2008         2009         2010 E   Total Bank Assets, USD mln   2,892   2,880     3,064    3,064
Source: National Statistical Office                                      Total Loans to GDP, %       47       44      43.8         43.8




VAST UNTAPPED NATURAL RESOURCES
          Periodic table of the elements (Mendeleyev)




                                                                                     Elements discovered and studied in Mongolia

                                                                                     Elements not discovered in Mongolia

          69 of the total 111 elements of the Periodic Table or 62% of the total elements are found in Mongolia.
Source: Central Geological Laboratory of Mongolia
Prepared by Mining Department, Golomt Bank
Undeveloped world scale deposits
        Name of Deposit                    Mineral type                              Reserve                                Value (USD bln)
          Tavan Tolgoi                  coking/thermal coal                      6.4 bln tonnes                                   462
                                                 Cu,                             39 mln tonnes,
           Oyu Tolgoi                                                                                                               356
                                                 Au                               1816 tonnes
          Shivee ovoo                       thermal coal                         5.6 bln tonnes                                     330
           Tugalgatai                       thermal coal                          3 bln tonnes                                      177
        Mushgia Khudag                     Fe, rare earth                       23.6 mln tonnes                                      41
           Baganuur                         thermal coal                        512.8 mln tonnes                                     30
            Erdenet                            Cu, Mo                           4.87 mln tonnes                                      37
         Nariin Sukhait                      coking coal                        210.7 mln tonnes                                     24
           Tumurtei                            Fe, Zn                          229.29 mln tonnes                                     18
            Dornod                                U                            76.11 thous. tonnes                                   9
                                               TOTAL                                                                               $1,484
  Resource: Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, March 2008
  Valuation: Golomt Bank, January 2010

           Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement (OTIA) was signed on 6th October 2009 entailing a joint venture partnership
           between Ivanhoe Mines, Rio Tinto and Government of Mongolia
           Oyu Tolgoi is projected to have annual production of USD 5 bln over a 40 year life span
           Tavan Tolgoi is projected to have annual production of USD 10 bln over a 50 year life span
           South Gobi Sands listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a > USD 450 million placement as of 29th January 2010



  TRADE PARTNERS
                                      USD               Share of total                                        USD                Share of total
            Exports                  million              exports                 Imports                    million               imports
             China                   2466.3                 84.8%           Russian Federation               1 046.7                 31.5%
            Canada                    141.6                  4.7%                 China                       971.0                  30.3%
            Russia                    82.7                   2.8%                 Japan                       196.5                   6.1%
               UK                     67.4                   2.3%              South Korea                    181.8                   5.7%
              Italy                   31.5                   1.1%                  USA                        158.9                   4.9%
         Total Exports               2 789.5                95.9%             Total Imports                  2 554.9                 78.5%
  Source: National Statistical Office, 2010

           China absorbs 4/5 of exports and provides 1/2 of non-oil imports

           Mongolia’s growth is strongly correlated with China’s growth




  EXPONENTIAL GROWTH POTENTIAL
         Copper Exports Forecast (thousand tonnes)                                          Coal Exports Forecast (mln tonnes)

1400                                                                         50                                                                     45
1200                                             1147                                                                                          40
                                                                             40
1000                                                                                                                                      33
                                                                             30                                                    28
 800                                         656                                                                            22
 600                                     518
                                                                             20                                        16
 400                                 382
     126 130 130 146 148 149 146 150                                         10                    6     7      9
 200                                                                              2    2      3
   0                                                                          0


                      Erdenet   Oyu Tolgoi     Others                                                  Others       Tavan Tolgoi
                                                         Source: Golomt Bank Mining Department, 2009
Nominal GDP, USD bln                                                                  GDP per Capita, USD
30                                                                                  10000
                                                                                    9000
25                                                                                  8000
                                                                                    7000
20
                                                                                    6000
15                                                                                  5000
                                                                                    4000
10
                                                                                    3000

 5                                                                                  2000
                                                                                    1000
 0                                                                                     0
      03    04   05   06   07   08    09   10    11   12   13   14   15                      03   04    05    06   07    08   09    10    11   12   13   14   15
                                     Source: Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, March 2008



IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA
            Raise capital
            Conduct fiscal reforms
            Enhance competitiveness
            Strengthen corporate governance


                                                                MNT Billion                                             Percentage
                      Investment
                                                  2007      2008           2009       2010             2007        2008            2009        2010
                         Total                   1 252.8   1 785.1        2 146.2    3 370.7           100         100             100         100
            By technological composition
                  Construction work              389.4      586.2          418.0      350.8            31.1         32.8           19.5        10.4
                Machinery, equipment             729.7      854.7         1 042.6    1 801.7           58.2         47.9           48.6        53.5
                        Others                   133.7      344.2          685.6     1 218.2           10.7         19.3           31.9        36.1
                 By financial sources
                       Domestic                  778.5      950.5          843.2     1 038.5           62.1         53.2           39.3        30.8
                     State budget                407.7      519.3          433.9      551.5            32.5         29.1           20.2        16.4
                        Others                   370.8      431.2          409.3      487.0            29.6         24.2           19.1        14.4
                        Foreign                  474.3      834.6         1303.0     2 332.2           37.9         46.8           60.7        69.2
              Foreign direct investment          369.8      693.5          819.3     2 133.8           29.5         38.8           38.2        63.3
                        Others                   104.5      141.1          483.7      198.4             8.3          7.9           22.5         5.9
           Source: National Statistical Office



INVESTOR FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT
                                                                                                                                           Doing Business
     Since our peaceful transition from a centrally planned                                            Ease of                            2012 rank out of
     economy to democracy, Mongolia has been creating                                                                                      183 countries
     an investor friendly environment to encourage foreign                                     Starting Business                                 97
     investment.                                                                             Protecting Investors                                29
     The laws have been updated in 1993, 1998 and in                                             Paying Taxes                                    57
     2003; with each revision of the laws conditions were                                    Registering Property                                26
     improved reach win win situation.                                                          Getting Credit                                   67
                                                                                              Enforcing Contract                                 33
                                                                                            Doing Business, Overall                              86
                                                                             Source: ICF/World Bank 2012 annual report on business conditions in
                                                                             developing countries

                                                                                                                                                         Tel: 976-11-321927
                                                                                                                                                        Fax: 976-11-321926
                                                                                                                                                     E-mail: info@ecrc.mn
                                                                                                                    Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center
                                                                                                              Central Tower 1010a, Sukhbaatar Square, Ulan Bator, Mongolia
                                                                     WEB: WWW.ECRC.MN

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Mongolian review 2011

  • 1. MONGOLIA UNIQUE POTENTIAL FOR EXPONENTIAL GROWTH 2011
  • 2. COUNTRY DATA Total Area : 1.56 mln sq. km East to West : 2,392 km (1,487 miles) North to South : 1,259 km (782 miles) Capital city : Ulaanbaatar Population : 2.7 million Least densely populated : 2 individuals per sq.km Literacy rate : 97.8% GDP 2010 : USD 6.1 billion Exports: USD 2.9 billion Imports: USD 3.2 billion KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP Current price (US$ Million), Real growth (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 6.1% 6,000 Nominal GDP, USD mln 3,931 4,837 4,197 6,088 9.0% 5,000 GDP Growth Rate, % 10.2 9 -1.3 6.1 -1.3% 10.2% GDP per capital, USD 1,490 1,819 1,532 1,532 4,000 8.6% 3,000 Inflation 15 22 4.2 4.2 USD rate 1,170 1,268 1,443 1,443 2,000 Exports, USD mln 1,949 2,539 1,902 1,902 1,000 Trade Balance, USD mln 114,3 -710 -228,7 -228,7 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E Total Bank Assets, USD mln 2,892 2,880 3,064 3,064 Source: National Statistical Office Total Loans to GDP, % 47 44 43.8 43.8 VAST UNTAPPED NATURAL RESOURCES Periodic table of the elements (Mendeleyev) Elements discovered and studied in Mongolia Elements not discovered in Mongolia 69 of the total 111 elements of the Periodic Table or 62% of the total elements are found in Mongolia. Source: Central Geological Laboratory of Mongolia Prepared by Mining Department, Golomt Bank
  • 3. Undeveloped world scale deposits Name of Deposit Mineral type Reserve Value (USD bln) Tavan Tolgoi coking/thermal coal 6.4 bln tonnes 462 Cu, 39 mln tonnes, Oyu Tolgoi 356 Au 1816 tonnes Shivee ovoo thermal coal 5.6 bln tonnes 330 Tugalgatai thermal coal 3 bln tonnes 177 Mushgia Khudag Fe, rare earth 23.6 mln tonnes 41 Baganuur thermal coal 512.8 mln tonnes 30 Erdenet Cu, Mo 4.87 mln tonnes 37 Nariin Sukhait coking coal 210.7 mln tonnes 24 Tumurtei Fe, Zn 229.29 mln tonnes 18 Dornod U 76.11 thous. tonnes 9 TOTAL $1,484 Resource: Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, March 2008 Valuation: Golomt Bank, January 2010 Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement (OTIA) was signed on 6th October 2009 entailing a joint venture partnership between Ivanhoe Mines, Rio Tinto and Government of Mongolia Oyu Tolgoi is projected to have annual production of USD 5 bln over a 40 year life span Tavan Tolgoi is projected to have annual production of USD 10 bln over a 50 year life span South Gobi Sands listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a > USD 450 million placement as of 29th January 2010 TRADE PARTNERS USD Share of total USD Share of total Exports million exports Imports million imports China 2466.3 84.8% Russian Federation 1 046.7 31.5% Canada 141.6 4.7% China 971.0 30.3% Russia 82.7 2.8% Japan 196.5 6.1% UK 67.4 2.3% South Korea 181.8 5.7% Italy 31.5 1.1% USA 158.9 4.9% Total Exports 2 789.5 95.9% Total Imports 2 554.9 78.5% Source: National Statistical Office, 2010 China absorbs 4/5 of exports and provides 1/2 of non-oil imports Mongolia’s growth is strongly correlated with China’s growth EXPONENTIAL GROWTH POTENTIAL Copper Exports Forecast (thousand tonnes) Coal Exports Forecast (mln tonnes) 1400 50 45 1200 1147 40 40 1000 33 30 28 800 656 22 600 518 20 16 400 382 126 130 130 146 148 149 146 150 10 6 7 9 200 2 2 3 0 0 Erdenet Oyu Tolgoi Others Others Tavan Tolgoi Source: Golomt Bank Mining Department, 2009
  • 4. Nominal GDP, USD bln GDP per Capita, USD 30 10000 9000 25 8000 7000 20 6000 15 5000 4000 10 3000 5 2000 1000 0 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, March 2008 IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA Raise capital Conduct fiscal reforms Enhance competitiveness Strengthen corporate governance MNT Billion Percentage Investment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 1 252.8 1 785.1 2 146.2 3 370.7 100 100 100 100 By technological composition Construction work 389.4 586.2 418.0 350.8 31.1 32.8 19.5 10.4 Machinery, equipment 729.7 854.7 1 042.6 1 801.7 58.2 47.9 48.6 53.5 Others 133.7 344.2 685.6 1 218.2 10.7 19.3 31.9 36.1 By financial sources Domestic 778.5 950.5 843.2 1 038.5 62.1 53.2 39.3 30.8 State budget 407.7 519.3 433.9 551.5 32.5 29.1 20.2 16.4 Others 370.8 431.2 409.3 487.0 29.6 24.2 19.1 14.4 Foreign 474.3 834.6 1303.0 2 332.2 37.9 46.8 60.7 69.2 Foreign direct investment 369.8 693.5 819.3 2 133.8 29.5 38.8 38.2 63.3 Others 104.5 141.1 483.7 198.4 8.3 7.9 22.5 5.9 Source: National Statistical Office INVESTOR FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT Doing Business Since our peaceful transition from a centrally planned Ease of 2012 rank out of economy to democracy, Mongolia has been creating 183 countries an investor friendly environment to encourage foreign Starting Business 97 investment. Protecting Investors 29 The laws have been updated in 1993, 1998 and in Paying Taxes 57 2003; with each revision of the laws conditions were Registering Property 26 improved reach win win situation. Getting Credit 67 Enforcing Contract 33 Doing Business, Overall 86 Source: ICF/World Bank 2012 annual report on business conditions in developing countries Tel: 976-11-321927 Fax: 976-11-321926 E-mail: info@ecrc.mn Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center Central Tower 1010a, Sukhbaatar Square, Ulan Bator, Mongolia WEB: WWW.ECRC.MN