Emissions

1. Universidade de São Paulo
Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas
Air pollution modeling in the Estado de São
Paulo using a bottom-up emissions inventory
Orientadora: Rita Yuri Ynoue
Aluno: Sergio Ibarra Espinosa
2/10/14

2. 1 Background
 Expanded Area: Sao Paulo,
Campinas, Santos and more

3. 1 Background
E=FE∗VF∗TV∗L
Activity Level

4. Top-Down
Where are the
cars?

5. But in reality...

6. Bottom-up
Dynamics of
vehicular flux
should be
incorporated to
emissions models

7. 1 Background
E=FE∗VF∗TV∗L
Activity Level

8. Road
Network
Activity
Vehicular
flow
Vehicular
Technology
Standards
Municipality
Street
Models
Traffic
Counts
Regression
and Traffic
Simulations
Statistical Evaluation
IAG
HBEFA
Emissions
Estimation
Vehicul
ar flow
Copert 4
CETESB
WRF
Chem
24 hours
profile
Meteorology
Emissions
Street-hour

9. Metodos
206 points for
counting
Regressions:
●Distribution Poisson
●Zero Inflated
Negative Binomial
●Normal

10. Model
βo: intercept; β1: estimate; TR: Type of Street; ε: Error
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Distribuição normalizada 800:900 segunda São Paulo
RM São Paulo
seg
ter
qua
qui
sex
sab
dom
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Distribuição normalizada 800:900 segunda São Paulo
RM Campinas
seg
ter
qua
qui
sex
sab
do
m

11. RMSP RMC RML RMS RMSP RMC RML RMS Santiago AMBA
IAG IAG IAG IAG CETESB CETESB CETESB CETESB DICTUC D'Angiola
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Emissions inventories (t/y)
CO (t/a) Nox (t/a) COV (t/a)