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Public Safety,
Public Spending
Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007–2011
Revised June 2007. The projected incarceration rates in this report have been updated with revised population estimates.
About the Public Safety
Performance Project


A
         n operating project of The Pew Charitable               Justice, and former bureau chief of the Bureau of
         Trusts, the Public Safety Performance Project           Research and Data Analysis for the Florida Department
         seeks to help states advance fiscally sound, data-      of Corrections.
driven policies and practices in sentencing and corrections    • Richard Berk, professor of criminology and statistics,
that protect public safety, hold offenders accountable and       University of Pennsylvania, and former Distinguished
control corrections costs. The project helps states              Professor of Statistics and Sociology at UCLA.
diagnose the factors driving prison growth and provides        • Gerald Gaes, visiting scientist at the National Institute
policy audits to identify options for reform, drawing on         of Justice, criminal justice consultant and former
solid research, promising approaches and best practices in       director of research for the Federal Bureau of Prisons.
other states. The initiative also helps state officials,
practitioners and others share state-of-the-art knowledge      While these experts have screened the report for
and ideas through policy forums, public opinion surveys,       methodology and accuracy, neither they nor their current
multi-state meetings, national, regional and state-level       or former organizations necessarily endorse its findings
convenings, and online information about what works.           or conclusions.

The project works closely with the Pew Center on the           Substantial contributions to the report also were made by
States (PCS), a division of Pew. By conducting nonpartisan     the Vera Institute of Justice and the Council of State
research and analysis, educating the public and federal and    Governments Justice Center, partners of the Public Safety
state policy makers, bringing together diverse stakeholders,   Performance Project. Staff of both organizations reviewed
and encouraging pragmatic, consensus-based solutions,          drafts of the report and offered excellent comments and
PCS identifies and advances effective public policy            insights that were instrumental to its completion.
approaches to critical issues facing states.
                                                               We also would like to thank the 50 state correctional
                                                               agencies and the federal Bureau of Prisons, which
About this Report                                              provided much of the data used to create the national
                                                               forecast and other parts of this report.
This report was prepared for the Public Safety
Performance Project by the JFA Institute, a well-respected,
Washington-based, nonprofit consulting firm. JFA is led
by James Austin, Wendy Naro and Tony Fabelo, three
                                                               Contact Information
nationally renowned researchers with deep expertise in         For more information, please visit www.pewpublicsafety.org
state criminal justice policy and statistics. JFA conducts     or contact Project Director Adam Gelb at
prison population forecasts under contract with a number       agelb@pewtrusts.org or (404) 848-0186.
of states, and several other states use JFA’s software to
make their projections.                                        The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge
                                                               to solve today’s most challenging problems. Pew applies a
                                                               rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the
The report was reviewed by three independent specialists
                                                               public and stimulate civic life. We partner with a diverse range of
in prison population forecasting:
                                                               donors, public and private organizations and concerned citizens
• William Bales, associate professor, Florida State            who share our commitment to fact-based solutions and goal-driven
  University, College of Criminology and Criminal              investments to improve society.



                                                                                 Public Safety Performance Project                   i
Executive Summary


                                             fter a 700-percent increase in


                                     A
                                                                                                      The national price tag is staggering. The
                                             the U.S. prison population between                       projected 192,023 new prisoners—leave aside
                                             1970 and 2005, you’d think the                           the current population of more than 1.5
                                     nation would finally have run out of                             million inmates—could cost as much as $27.5
                                     lawbreakers to put behind bars.                                  billion: potentially a cumulative $15 billion in
                                                                                                      new operating costs and $12.5 billion in new
                                     But according to Public Safety, Public Spending:                 construction costs by 2011. Every additional
                                     Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007-                    dollar spent on prisons, of course, is one
                                     2011, a first-of-its-kind projection, state and                  dollar less that can go to preparing for the
                                     federal prisons will swell by more than                          next Hurricane Katrina, educating young
                                     192,000 inmates over the next five years.                        people, providing health care to the elderly,
                                     This 13-percent jump triples the projected                       or repairing roads and bridges.
                                     growth of the general U.S. population, and
                                     will raise the prison census to a total of more                  Don’t picture this parade of prisoners as an
                                     than 1.7 million people. Imprisonment levels                     exclusively male group. Nationwide, men
                                     are expected to keep rising in all but four                      outnumber women behind bars, but women
                                     states, reaching a national rate of 550 per                      are playing a dubious kind of catch-up here.
                                     100,000, or one of every 182 Americans. If                       The number of women prisoners is projected
                                     you put them all together in one place, the                      to grow by 16 percent by 2011, while the
                                     incarcerated population in just five years will                  male population will increase 12 percent. In
                                     outnumber the residents of Atlanta,                              some states this disparity is particularly
                                     Baltimore and Denver combined.                                   striking. Nevada, for example, is projecting a
                                                                                                      36-percent increase in female prisoners over
                                                                                                      the next half-decade.
        National Prison Population, 1980-2011
        2,000,000
        1,800,000
                                                                                                      Gender differences aren’t the only area in
        1,600,000                                                                                     which trends vary widely among states and
        1,400,000                                                                      Projected
        1,200,000                                                                                     regions. Although national prison populations
        1,000,000
                                                       Actual
                                                                                                      aren’t currently growing at the same furious
          800,000
          600,000                                                                                     pace as they were a few years back, in some
          400,000
          200,000
                                                                                                      states and regions growth rates remain in
                 0                                                                                    crisis mode. Prison populations in the West,
                  1980    1983   1986   1989    1992   1995     1998     2001   2004   2007    2011
                                                                                                      Midwest and South are expected to increase

  Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics (historical) and JFA Institute




ii Public Safety, Public Spending
by double-digit percentages between 2006
and 2011, led by the West with a projected                                                National Prison Incarceration Rate, 1980-2011
growth rate of 18 percent. The Northeast,
                                                                                          600




                                                        Prisoners per 100,000 residents
with its slow population growth and steady
                                                                                          500
crime rates, will see slower but still costly                                                                                                                     Projected
                                                                                          400
growth of 7 percent during the same period.                                                                                            Actual
                                                                                          300

                                                                                          200
A few other trends add to the image of states’
                                                                                          100
prisons and budgets stretched at the seams:
• Over the next five years, the average                                                    0
                                                                                            1980   1983   1986   1989   1992    1995     1998   2001    2004    2007       2011
  inmate will be more likely to be female or
  elderly—both groups that have special                                                                            Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics (historical) and JFA Institute
  needs and higher costs.
• In some states, corrections officials, already   State Highlights
    having difficulty hiring and keeping guards
    on the job, are becoming more and more         This report provides forecasts for prison
    concerned about finding and retaining          populations and incarceration rates for all 50
    qualified personnel to staff new prisons.      states. Among its findings:
•   In some states, especially in the West,        • By 2011, without changes in sentencing or
    Midwest and South, methamphetamine                 release policies, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho,
    cases have become significant contributors         Montana and Vermont can expect to see
    to prison growth.                                  one new prisoner for every three currently
•   In the past few years, many states have            in the system.
    enacted enhanced penalties for sex crimes.     •   Similarly, barring reforms, there will be one
    The impact of most of these laws on prison         new prisoner for every four now in prison
    populations and state budgets will be felt         in Colorado, Washington, Wyoming,
    beyond the five-year window of this report.        Nevada, Utah and South Dakota.
                                                   •   Incarceration rates are expected to spike in
                                                       Arizona and Nevada, from 590 and 540
                                                       prisoners per 100,000 residents,
                                                       respectively, to 703 and 599. Particularly
                                                       worrisome is the growth in the population
                                                       of young males, the group at highest risk of
    10 Highest-Growth States                           criminal activity. Both states have recently
    (by percent increase)                              increased their prison population forecasts
                                                       because of the combined impact of
    Montana                            41%             demographics and policies that increase
    Arizona                            35%
                                                       prison terms.
    Alaska                             34%
    Idaho                              34%         •   Louisiana, which has the highest
    Vermont                            33%             incarceration rate among states, with 835
    Colorado                           31%             prisoners per 100,000 residents, expects
    Washington                         28%
                                                       that figure to hit 852 by 2011.
    Wyoming                            27%
    Nevada                             27%         • Florida is anticipated to cross the 100,000-
    Utah                               25%             prisoner threshold within the next five



                                                                                                                        Public Safety Performance Project                                 iii
years, the only state other than Texas and      heinous crime can have on the public’s views
                          California to do so.                            about the appropriate punishment for that
                      •   None of the states is projecting an actual      type of offense and incarceration in general.
                          decrease in its number of prisoners between
                          2006 and 2011. The report projects no           The size of a state’s prison system is
                          growth in Connecticut, Delaware and New         determined by two simple factors: how many
                          York.                                           people come in and how long they stay. Yet
                      •   The Midwest’s prison population continues       both variables are the products of a dizzying
                          to rise primarily because of increases in new   array of influences, from policy-level decisions
                          prison admissions and parole violations.        and the discretion that judges, prosecutors
                          Iowa’s prison population is expected to         and corrections officials exercise in individual
                          increase at a slower rate than other            cases, to the larger forces at work in society.
                          Midwest states.
                      •   Though the Northeast boasts the lowest          During the past three decades, a number of
                          incarceration rates, it has the highest costs   changes in states’ sentencing and corrections
                          per prisoner, led by Rhode Island ($44,860),    policies have been particularly significant.
                          Massachusetts ($43,026) and New York            These include movement from indeterminate
                          ($42,202). The lowest costs are generally in    to determinate sentencing; abolition of parole
                          the South, led by Louisiana ($13,009),          and adoption of truth-in-sentencing
                          Alabama ($13,019) and South Carolina            requirements; lower parole grant rates; passage
                          ($13,170).                                      of “three-strikes” laws; and establishment of
                                                                          sentencing guidelines. While the impact of
                                                                          reforms varies in each state, the states report
                      Driving Forces                                      that these policy decisions are among the major
                                                                          drivers of their prison populations.
                      Predicting the future is a risky business, of
                      course. In Charles Dickens’ Christmas Carol,
                      Scrooge asks the last ghost that appears to         Implications for Public
                      him, “Are these the shadows of the things           Safety and Public Policy
                      that Will be? Or are they shadows of things
                      that May be, only?”                                 It’s a tempting leap of logic to assume that
                                                                          the more people behind bars, the less crime
                      In the world of criminal justice policy, as much    there will be. But despite public expectations
                      as in Dickens’ famed tale, nothing is inevitable.   to the contrary, there is no clear cause and
                      The size and attributes of a state’s prison         effect. In fact, the question of the effect that
                      population are linked to an array of factors.       imprisonment has on crime rates cannot be
                      Population growth and crime rates can be the        solved with simple arithmetic. It requires
                      fuel for this fast-moving train, but the throttle   something more like a social policy calculus.
                      is in the hands of state leaders who make
                      related policy choices. Some of these decisions     The central questions are ones of
                      are made on the basis of careful analysis of        effectiveness and cost. Total national
                      facts and history. Others are predicated on         spending on corrections has jumped to more
                      anecdote and the impact a single, particularly      than $60 billion from just $9 billion in 1980,




iv Public Safety, Public Spending
and yet recidivism rates have barely changed.
More than half of released prisoners are back       Methodology Overview
behind bars within three years. If states want
the best results from their correctional            Forecasting prison populations has grown more sophisticated since
systems over the next five years—both in            the days of estimating using time series or trend analysis, which
                                                    showed what had already happened but failed to make accurate
terms of public safety and public spending—
                                                    projections of future patterns. Today’s more advanced models are
how should they approach the significant
                                                    designed to mimic the flow of the correctional system based on
prison population growth that is anticipated?       probabilities of prison admissions and inmate lengths of stay.
That question is the chief challenge states are
facing. They are not fated to such high rates       This national prison projection report was generated from data from
of prison growth by factors out of their            the states themselves. The federal Bureau of Prisons and 42 states
                                                    (including the 36 states that use advanced simulation methods)
control. The policy choices they make—the
                                                    provided their official forecasts to form the basis of this report. Those
sentencing and release laws, programs and
                                                    jurisdictions accounted for 92 percent of the national prison population
practices they enact and fund—are principal         as of 2005. The remaining eight states were unable to provide
determinates of the size, effectiveness and         projections, so researchers calculated estimates using the states’ own
cost of their corrections systems.                  most recent monthly population counts and available admission and
                                                    release data. Those estimates—for Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware,
The key is for policy makers to base their          Maine, New York, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming—are not official
                                                    forecasts.
decisions on a clear understanding of the
costs and benefits of incarceration—and of
                                                    Researchers also contacted each state to obtain the most current costs
data-driven, evidence-based alternatives that       per prisoner. The cost figures included administrative support, program
can preserve public safety while saving much-       services and facility maintenance. If a state contracts with a private
needed tax dollars. To begin the process of         prison company, researchers attempted to incorporate those into the
looking at costs and benefits, state policy         annual cost figure.
makers need to know whether, and at what
                                                    It’s important to note that an increase or decrease in a state prison
rate, their correctional system is likely to
                                                    population will not yield a direct change in operating costs. Some
grow, and how their system’s growth rate            states whose prison populations grow by only a small amount will
compares to that of other states. By providing      experience only marginal cost increases, such as the costs of medical
this comparative data, this forecast can assist     care and food; they will likely not need to hire additional staff or build
states in their efforts to develop cost-effective   new cells. Other states may pass a tipping point and proceed with
options that reduce corrections expenditures        constructing new prisons and taking on new staff.

while protecting public safety.
                                                    It’s possible, too, that the projected population may involve
                                                    disproportionately lower-custody inmates or that a state may employ
Those last two words—public safety—are of           alternative, lower-cost housing methods and divert some offenders into
particular consequence. No policy maker is          community punishments. These scenarios would result in an
likely to (or should) pursue a path that saves      overestimate of future costs if the estimate is made using an average
prison money if it runs a substantial risk of       cost per inmate.
increasing recidivism or crime rates. On the
                                                    Capital costs for corrections are more difficult to project than operating
other hand, an option that can lead to better
                                                    costs. Prison beds cost about $65,000 to construct, but total
public safety outcomes while saving money is        construction cost figures exclude renovation and conversion of
the picture that goes alongside the dictionary      existing bed space.
definition of win-win.
                                                    For these reasons, the report does not provide cost estimates for each
                                                    individual state.




                                                                                 Public Safety Performance Project               v
Pspp prison projections_0207
Table of Contents


     Introduction .....................................................................................................................1

     Forecasting Correctional Populations ........................................................................3
       Micro-simulation Models ..........................................................................................................6
        Accuracy of the Projection Models...........................................................................................7

     National Prison Population Projection Estimates ...................................................9
      Growth of Women Prisoners Will Continue to Outpace Males............................................10
      Age of Inmates (and the Cost of Their Medical Care) is Expected to Rise .........................11
      Corrections Workforce Recruitment and Retention is a Growing Concern .........................11
        Rise in Methamphetamine-related Cases ...............................................................................11
        Impact of Enhanced Sex Offender Sentences Will Be Felt Beyond Five Years .....................12

     Regional and State Trends..........................................................................................13
      Northeastern Region ...............................................................................................................13
      Midwestern Region .................................................................................................................14
      Southern Region .....................................................................................................................15
      Western Region .......................................................................................................................17

     Estimating Current and Future Prison Costs .........................................................18
      Methodological Issues.............................................................................................................19
      Current Operational Costs .....................................................................................................20
      Estimates of Future Operational Costs ..................................................................................21
        Capital Costs...........................................................................................................................22

     The Relationship Between Incarceration and Crime Rates.................................23

     Public Safety, Public Spending:
     The Challenge Ahead for State Policy Makers........................................................25

     Appendix.........................................................................................................................27




                                                                                   Public Safety Performance Project                                 vii
Tables and Figures

                         Table 1:       Adult Correctional Populations, 1980-2005..........................................................2
                         Figure 1:      Schematic Flow of Prison Population Components..............................................4
                         Figure 2:      Crime and Incarceration Rates by State, 2004 .....................................................5
                         Figure 3:      National At-Risk Population: Males Between 18-34.............................................6
                         Figure 4:      Accurate Projections: West Virginia, 2004-2006 ..................................................8
                         Figure 5:      Projections Responding to Change: Nevada, 2005-2006 .....................................8
                         Figure 6:      Projected National Prison Population and Incarceration Rate, 2006-2011 ........10
                         Figure 7:      Projected Change in Regional Incarceration Rates, 2006-2011 .........................10
                         Table 2:       Ohio 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016 .....................................14
                         Figure 8:      Projected Year-End Resident Population by Region, 2006-2011 ........................15
                         Table 3:       Nevada 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016.................................16
                         Table 4:       Arizona 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016 ................................16
                         Table 5:       Costs Per State Prisoner, 1984-2005 ...................................................................21
                         Figure 9:      National Crime and Imprisonment Trends, 1931-2005 .....................................23

                        Appendix

                         Table   A-1:   Key State Data, 2005 ...........................................................................................27
                         Table   A-2:   State, Regional and National Residential Populations, 2005-2011.....................28
                         Table   A-3:   State Prison Populations by Region, 2006-2011 .................................................29
                         Table   A-4:   State Prison Populations by Growth Rate, 2006-2011 .......................................30
                         Table A-5: State Incarceration Rates by Region, 2006-2011 ................................................31
                         Table A-6: State Incarceration Rates by Growth Rate, 2006-2011.......................................32
                         Table A-7: Annual Operating Costs per Inmate...................................................................33
                         Table A-8: Sources of State Prison Population Projections...................................................34
                         Table A-9: Sources of State Inmate Costs .............................................................................36




viii Public Safety, Public Spending
Introduction


         his report estimates the


T
                                                    world in incarceration rates, well above Russia
         future size and cost of the state and      and Cuba, which have the next highest rates
         federal prison systems. It examines        of 607 and 487 per 100,000. Western
the reasons for the projected growth and, since     European countries have incarceration rates
prison expansion is generally intended to           that range from 78 to 145 per 100,000.3
reduce crime, it outlines what we currently
know about the relationship between                 Probation and parole populations have
incarceration and crime rates. Finally, the         skyrocketed alongside the rapid growth in the
report highlights the efforts of some states to     state and federal prison systems. Since 1980,
control corrections spending while protecting       the total correctional population has grown
public safety and holding offenders                 from 1.8 million to over 7 million people
accountable for their actions.                      (Table 1). While the prison population has
                                                    grown at the fastest rate, more than 4 million
The past three decades have witnessed an            adults are on probation, making that the                 At year-end
historic increase in the nation’s penal system      largest component of the correctional system;
                                                                                                      2005, there were
at all levels. In 1970, the state and federal       it too has nearly tripled since 1980.
prison population was less than 190,000. The                                                          almost 2.2 million
latest report by the U.S. Department of Justice     While noteworthy in their own right, national         people—one in
puts the 2005 population at nearly 1.5              trends tend to mask significant state-level
                                                                                                        every 136 U.S.
million. Further, almost 750,000 people are         variation. This is the case both for
incarcerated in local jails, resulting in a total   incarceration (covering jails and prisons)4 and            residents—
incarcerated population of almost 2.2 million,      the population under community supervision              in U.S. jails
or 737 per 100,000 U.S. population.1 Put            (including parole and probation). For
                                                                                                            and prisons.
differently, for every 1,000 U.S. residents,        example, while the national prison
seven are incarcerated either in jail or prison     incarceration rate in 2005 was 491 per
on any given day. Each year, over 600,000           100,000 residents, Louisiana had the highest
people are admitted to state and federal            prison incarceration rate (797 per 100,000)
prisons. A much larger number (over 10              followed by fellow Southern states Texas
million) go to local jails. There are another       (691), Mississippi (660) and Oklahoma (652).
4.3 million ex-convicts living in the U.S.2         Maine had the lowest incarceration rate (144),
                                                    followed by Minnesota (180), Rhode Island
The U.S. imprisons significantly more people        (189) and New Hampshire (192).5
than any other nation. China ranks second,
imprisoning 1.5 million of its much larger          While it is generally true that Southern states
citizen population. The U.S. also leads the         have high incarceration rates while


                                                                                 Public Safety Performance Project          1
national correctional system. Currently, each
    TABLE 1                                                                                       state bears responsibility for forecasting its
    Adult Correctional Populations, 1980–2005                                                     own population. A national forecast such as
                                                                                                  this will have several important uses.
    Population                            1980                   2005         % Change
    Probation                          1,118,097              4,162,536          272%
                                                                                                  First, state policy makers need to know how
    Jail                                 183,988                747,529          306%
    Prison                               319,598              1,461,132          357%             much their correctional system is likely to
    Parole                               220,438                784,408          255%             grow, if at all, so that they at least can ensure
    Total Adults                                                                                  that sufficient funds are available to support
    Under Corrections                  1,842,100              7,155,605             288%
                                                                                                  growth. This is especially true for the jail and
    Adult Population              162.8 Million          222.3 million               36%          prison systems that must maintain standards of
    % of Adults Under                                                                             care for their prisoners. Second, because
    Corrections                              1.1%                  3.2%                           differences in population increases often reflect
    Sources: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Prisoners in 2005, Bureau
    of Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Paige M. Harrison and Allen J. Beck (Washington, D.C.:     differences in criminal justice policies,
    November 2006), NCJ 215092; U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs.
    Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 2005, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Paige M.   understanding such policy differences and their
    Harrison and Allen J. Beck (Washington, D.C.: May 2006), NCJ 213133 and U.S. Department
    of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Probation and Parole in the US 2005, Bureau of        impact on prison populations and costs can
    Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Lauren E. Glaze and Thomas P. Bonozar (Washington, D.C.:
    November 2006), NCJ 215091
                                                                                                  help policy makers better evaluate whether
                                                                                                  they should pursue reforms. Third, given the
                                  Northeastern states have low rates, there is                    large and increasing amount of taxpayer funds
                                  considerable variation even among states                        being devoted to prison systems, policy makers
                                  from the same region or sharing similar                         want to ensure that their investments in public
                                  crime rates. For example, North and South                       safety are generating their intended results. If
                                  Dakota had low but very different                               other states are slowing the growth of their
                                  incarceration rates in 2005: 208 per 100,000                    prison populations while achieving better
                                  for North Dakota versus double that—443—                        public safety outcomes, such as lower
                                  for South Dakota. In the South, North                           recidivism rates or lower crime rates, policy
                                  Carolina’s incarceration rate is 360 while                      makers want to know that.
                                  South Carolina’s is 525.6 As discussed later,
                                  these pronounced differences in incarceration                   Finally, the costs of constructing and operating
                                  rates often reflect different sentencing laws and               jail and prison systems are an ongoing concern
                                  correctional policies that have been adopted by                 for policy makers. Between 1982 and 2003,
                                  policy makers. In other words, the size and                     national spending on criminal justice increased
                                  attributes of a state’s prison population are                   from $36 billion to $186 billion. Over $61
                                  heavily determined by policy choices.                           billion of that total is allocated to local, state,
                                                                                                  and federal corrections.7 Indeed, corrections
                                  In light of that, it would be valuable for policy               spending—which consists primarily of budgets
                                  makers and the public to understand the likely                  for jails and prisons—grew by more than 570
                                  future outcomes in states that have adopted                     percent during that period, faster than any
                                  varying policies. While the U.S. Department                     other aspect of the criminal justice system.
                                  of Justice provides accurate and                                Given the phenomenal period of growth in
                                  comprehensive historical data on the size and                   correctional populations and its associated
                                  attributes of the various correctional                          costs to the taxpayer, public officials are
                                  populations, there is no organization or agency                 becoming increasingly concerned about what
                                  that provides estimates of the future size of the               the costs will look like in the future.



2 Public Safety, Public Spending
Forecasting Correctional
Populations

        stimating the future size of any


E
                                                  The basic formula is:
        correctional system is part science and       Prison admissions x length of stay (LOS) =
        part judgment. Criminal justice policy        Average Daily Population (ADP)8
is a dynamic phenomenon and is difficult to
predict with a high degree of certainty.          This simplistic formula becomes far more
During the past three decades, we have            complex when one begins to understand the
witnessed a wide array of policy shifts in        myriad factors that can influence admissions
sentencing, including some states abolishing      and the LOS. Relatively minor changes in
parole, moving from indeterminate to              admissions or LOS can have an enormous
determinate sentencing, establishing              impact on the ADP. For example, if the LOS
sentencing guidelines, and adopting truth-in-     in a prison system is 30 months, an increase
sentencing and “three-strikes” laws. Many of      of three months in the LOS would increase
these changes were intended to remove repeat      the ADP by 10 percent. Changes in the LOS
offenders from the streets. But as the cost of    can be achieved by modifying sentence
corrections has skyrocketed, so has interest in   lengths, awarding or rescinding good time
finding cost-effective options that could         credits, changing parole eligibility dates, and
reduce expenditures without jeopardizing          paroling (or not paroling) offenders at either
public safety.                                    their initial parole date or
                                                  at a subsequent parole                 Between probation, parole,
Identifying these options requires sound          hearing.
                                                                                           jail and prison, the U.S.
research, comprehensive analysis and reliable
forecasting techniques to better inform           Figure 1 illustrates the                    correctional population
policy makers and the public about the            various internal and                      exceeds 7 million people.
consequences of current and proposed              external factors that
                                                                                        One in every 32 U.S. adult
policies. Estimating the future prison            influence ADP and
population is the beginning of this enterprise,   therefore influence a                  residents is currently under
not the end. Decision makers need to              forecast of the future ADPs.               correctional supervision.
understand why prison populations are             External factors reflect the
growing and how future changes will affect        interplay of demographic, socio-economic and
the system.                                       crime trends that produce arrests, and
                                                  offenders’ initial entry into the criminal justice
In the simplest terms, prison populations         process. Criminologists have long noted that
(and all correctional populations) are the        certain segments of the population have higher
result of two factors: the number of people       rates or chances of becoming involved in
admitted to prison and how long they stay.        crime, being arrested and being incarcerated.


                                                                                Public Safety Performance Project        3
FIGURE 1
    Schematic Flow of Prison Population Components


                                 Demographics—at risk population




                                             Crime




                                             Arrests




        New                                                             New
        Charge                             Convictions                Charge




                                                                   Probation
                        Prison                 Technical
                                                Violator


                          Technical
                           Violator




      Parole/Community Supervision




                                      Release to Community




4 Public Safety, Public Spending
FIGURE 2
       Crime and Incarceration Rates by State, 2005

                                                   800                                                             LA

                                                   700
        Incarceration Rate per 100,000 residents




                                                                                                                             TX
                                                                                                  MS                    OK
                                                   600                                                             AL
                                                                                                             MO GA     SC AZ
                                                   500                                 ID           MI            FL
                                                                                    KYVA             DECA       AR NV
                                                                    SD                                        CO      TN
                                                                                               WY          AK
                                                   400
                                                                               CTWI            MT    IN OH MD
                                                                                                  IL           NC OR
                                                                           NY NJPA                        KS        NM HI
                                                   300                          WV IA
                                                                                                                                     WA
                                                                          VT   MA        NE                   UT
                                                   200              NH ND        RI   MN
                                                                           ME
                                                   100


                                                    0
                                                         0   1000   2000                3000              4000                5000                 6000

                                                                           Crime Rate per 100,000 residents


                                                                                                                         Source: FBI Uniform Crime Report and BJS


This is known as the “at-risk” population,                               It is unfortunate but true that African-
which generally consists of younger males.                               Americans and Hispanics have significantly
The high crime rate ages are 15-25, while the                            higher arrest and incarceration rates than
high adult incarceration rate is between the                             whites. One must also factor in the extent to
ages of 18 and 35. When the at-risk                                      which these racial and ethnic groups within
population is expected to increase in a                                  these age ranges are also projected to
jurisdiction, one can also expect some                                   increase. As shown in Figure 3, the number
additional pressure on criminal justice                                  of at-risk African-American and Hispanic
resources, all things being equal.                                       males has been increasing over the past few
                                                                         years. States that are projected to have a
Figure 2 shows the association between crime                             larger at-risk population over the next decade
rates (which are produced in part by                                     also are likely to experience continued
demographic and socio-economic trends) and                               pressures on criminal justice and correctional
incarceration rates. The figure plots the crime                          resources based on demographic growth.
and incarceration rates for each state, showing
that states with low crime rates tend to have                            Internal factors reflect the various decision
lower incarceration rates. The spread of states                          points within the criminal justice system that
up and to the right on the graph shows that                              cumulatively determine prison admissions
states with higher crime rates tend to have high                         and LOS. These decisions begin with police
incarceration rates. The last section of this                            and end with correctional officials who,
report summarizes what is known about the                                within the context of the court-imposed
relationship between crime and incarceration.                            sentences, have the authority to release,



                                                                                                          Public Safety Performance Project                         5
criminal justice systems often vest considerable
        FIGURE 3                                                                 discretion in their public leaders who construct
        National At-Risk Population:
                                                                                 these policies and procedures. A complete
        Males Between 18-34
                                                                                 understanding of these complex influences is
          25 m
                                                                                 essential to the accuracy of planning and
          20 m
                                                              White
                                                                                 forecasting a prison or jail population.
           8m

                   Hispanic
                                                                                 Micro-simulation Models
           7m
                                                                                 Traditionally, prison populations were
           6m
                                                                                 estimated using time series or trends analysis.
           5m                                                         Black      This was easy to do since the historic counts
           4m                                                                    were readily available and it required little
                 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011                     —
                                                                                 skill to use such methods. These methods
  Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                 were very inaccurate, however, especially in
                               recommit, give and restore a wide array of        an environment where policy is very
                               good time credits, and offer supervision and      dynamic. Time series models can show only
                               services that may reduce recidivism.9             what has already occurred; they cannot
                                                                                 estimate future populations based on current
                               For example, one of the most difficult            or future criminal justice policies and
                               numbers to estimate is the number of prison       sentencing legislation.
                               admissions for the next five years. As
                               suggested by Figure 1, people come to prison      To better account for such a complex and
                               for three basic reasons: (1) they have been       dynamic system, a new generation of micro-
                               directly sentenced by the courts to a prison      simulation models has been developed to help
                               term (new court commitments); (2) they have       decision makers estimate the effects of current
                               failed to complete their term of probation and    policies and the likely consequences of specific
                               are now being sentenced to prison for a           policy proposals. These micro-simulation
                               violation of the conditions of their release or   models are designed to mimic the flow of (1)
                               new crime; or, (3) they have failed their term    the current prisoner population, and (2) the
                               of parole (or post-release supervision) and are   expected new admissions over the projection
                               being returned to prison for a violation of the   horizon based on these internal factors. Based
                               conditions of their release or new crime.         on stochastic entity simulation methods, the
                               Almost two-thirds of the estimated 600,000-       models mimic the actual flow of the
                               plus people who are admitted to prison are        correctional system based on current and future
                               those who have failed to complete probation       probabilities of being admitted to prison under a
                               or parole. A projection model thus should         particular legal status, with a certain sentence
                               have a “feedback loop” that captures the          for a certain crime, and being released at a
                               expected rate of probation and parole failures.   certain time based on probabilities of receiving
                                                                                 good time and being released on parole.
                               The impact of recently enacted sentencing         Similarly, each person released to probation or
                               laws, judicial decisions and other criminal       parole has a certain probability of being
                               justice policy choices also must be considered    revoked for a new crime or technical violation
                               in a population forecast. These complex factors   and being returned to prison for a certain
                               also vary from state to state. State and local    period of time before being re-released. All of



6 Public Safety, Public Spending
these “probabilities” are based on the current     Time series or regression models are not able
behavior of the decision makers.                   to employ such techniques and thus are less
                                                   able to demonstrate their accuracy. Moreover,
Accuracy of the                                    because they are based on historical patterns
Projection Models                                  that do not account for contemporary policies
A recurring question about any projection          or laws, they often either over- or
model is its accuracy. In one sense this is the    underestimate short-term developments.
wrong question to ask, since a forecast of any
correctional system is predicated upon the         Figures 4 and 5 highlight recent accuracy
assumptions of future criminal justice policy.     analyses for West Virginia and Nevada, both
Because such policies are constantly in flux,      of which employ simulation models. West
the projection must be modified as lawmakers       Virginia reflects a fairly stable policy
adopt new policies and correctional officials      environment, so the 2004 projection has been
adjust their administrative procedures. For        quite accurate for the past two years.
example, if a parole board implements new          Conversely, the Nevada estimate issued in
parole guidelines that serve to increase the       March 2005 began to display an
rate of parole for low-risk prisoners from 35      underestimate in fall 2005. This was caused
percent to 50 percent, the projection model’s      by a significant and unexpected surge in new
parole grant rates must be similarly adjusted      court commitments, largely from the Las
and thus show a lower forecast. If the             Vegas metropolitan area. The model’s new
legislature adopts a longer sentencing range       court intake estimates were then adjusted
for drug dealers that is not retroactive to the    with the assumption that new admissions
current prisoner population, the new               would continue to grow at the 2006 rather
admission stream must be altered and will          than the 2005 rate. As shown in the graph,
show a higher projection.                          this single change in the new admission
                                                   assumption increased the 10-year forecast by
Despite the nuances of the dynamic policy          over 900 prisoners.
arena, the models must demonstrate that they
would be accurate if policies remain constant.
The micro-simulation models are especially
adept in this regard if they are designed to
model both the current and future correctional
populations. For the first 12 to 18 months of a
projection, the current parole and prison
populations have a large influence on the
forecast since it takes that long for large
numbers of that population to exit. Further, the
micro-simulation models are loaded with the
most current data to reflect current practices
and are then “started” several months in the
past to see if they are mimicking actual
monthly counts of admissions, releases and
populations. Only when this test has been
successful is the forecast deemed “accurate.”



                                                                              Public Safety Performance Project   7
Two of the most significant examples of
                FIGURE 4                                                                                 overestimates occurred in Virginia after it
                Accurate Projections: West Virginia, 2004-2006                                           adopted truth-in-sentencing laws and in
               5800                                                                                      California after it adopted its “three-strikes”
               5600
                                                                                                         mandatory sentencing laws. The Virginia
               5400
                                                                                                         error resulted in a massive over-construction
                                              Actual                                                     plan to build prison beds that were not
    Inmates




               5200                                                                          Projected

               5000
                                                                                                         needed. In subsequent years Virginia was able
               4800
                                                                                                         to cancel some of its construction plans and
               4600
                                                                                                         recoup some of its losses by renting out the
               4400
                                                                                                         surplus prison beds at a profit to states that
               4200
                                                                                                         had crowded systems.
                           Jan    Apr   Jul    Oct     Jan   Apr   Jul      Oct    Jan    Apr    Jul
                            04    04    04     04       05   05    05       05      06    06     06
                                                                                                         In California, the original estimate was that the
  Source: JFA Institute
                                                                                                         “three-strikes” legislation would more than
                                                                                                         double the inmate population from 121,000
               FIGURE 5                                                                                  prisoners in 1994 to over 245,000 in 1999. It
               Projections Responding to Change:                                                         turned out that the prison population rose to
               Nevada, 2005-2006
                                                                                                         160,000. The estimate was off by a staggering
                        13500                                                                            85,000 inmates. The primary source of the
                                                                                  July 2006 projection
                        13000                                                                            error was an assumption that all criminal cases
                        12500
                                                        Actual population
                                                                                                         that fit the criteria for either a second- or third-
              Inmates




                        12000                                                                            strike sentence would be so prosecuted. In
                        11500                                                                            reality, prosecutors used the law to plea
                                   April 2005 projection                                                 bargain a large number of cases to lesser
                        11000

                        10500
                                                                                                         charges. And in several major counties,
                        10000
                                                                                                         including San Francisco and Alameda
                            Jan   Mar   May     Jul    Sep   Nov   Jan      Mar    May     Jul   Sep     (Oakland), prosecutors rarely applied the law.10
                             05   05    05      05      05   05     06      06      06     06     06

  Source: JFA Institute                                                                                  The lesson for “projectionists” is that they
                                              The level of accuracy raises the issue of                  must anticipate adjustments that practitioners
                                              under- and overestimates. It is fair to say that           will make to new policies that strain their
                                              correctional officials are more fearful of an              agencies’ capacities or their local community
                                              underestimate, which may lead to crowding                  standards. For instance, it can’t be assumed
                                              and perhaps a more dangerous prison                        that mandatory sentencing laws will be strictly
                                              environment. Overestimates typically pose                  followed by prosecutors or the courts. For this
                                              little operational problem to prison officials             reason it is useful to discount the estimated
                                              who may welcome a surplus of vacant prison                 effects of such laws.
                                              beds or at least a reduction in existing
                                              crowding. However, overestimates are viewed
                                              with disdain by some state fiscal analysts,
                                              who may feel (rightly or wrongly) that the
                                              projections were manipulated by the prison
                                              agency to secure extra, unneeded funding.



8 Public Safety, Public Spending
National Prison Population
Projection Estimates

         o make an estimate of the


T
                                                    4. The Western region will have the largest
         U.S. prison population, the researchers       prison population increase (18 percent)
         for this report contacted each of the 50      while the Northeast will experience the
states and the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP)         smallest growth (7 percent).
and requested their current official population     5. There is considerable variation among the
projections. Where available, projections by           states. Montana, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho,
gender were also requested.                            Vermont and Colorado all are poised to
                                                       grow by more than 30 percent under
The BOP and 42 states provided at least a five-        current criminal justice policies.
year prison population forecast. These                 Conversely, Connecticut, Delaware, New
reporting jurisdictions accounted for 92 percent      York and Maryland are expected to have
of the national prison population as of 2005.         little if any growth.
For the remaining eight states, researchers         6. Four states—Florida, California, Arizona
made estimates based on current population            and Texas—and the federal prison system
trends and extrapolated for five years.11             will account for more than 87,000
                                                      additional prisoners, or about 45 percent of
Figures 6 and 7 provide the national and              the total prison population increase.
regional estimates based on the data received
from the states and the BOP and the                 In reviewing these trends
estimates for states with no official projection.   and discussing them with               By 2011, America’s prison
Detailed tables for each state are shown in         the states, researchers                   population is projected to
the appendix. The national and state                learned that a wide array of
                                                                                          increase by 192,000 to over
estimates reveal the following major trends:        factors were influencing
                                                    these estimates. For a                         1.7 million inmates.
1. The nation’s state and federal prison            number of Southern and                     One in every 182 U.S.
   population will reach 1,722,477 by 2011—         Western states, demographic
                                                                                           residents will live in prison.
   an increase of approximately 192,000 over        growth, particularly for the
   a five-year period.                              at-risk population, was a
2. This rate of growth—about 38,400 more            major concern. This was especially true in
   inmates per year—is markedly higher than         Arizona, Nevada and Texas, all of which have
   the growth rate of the past three years.         recently increased their prison population
3. The prison incarceration rate will continue      estimates because of increases in prison
   to grow, from 491 per 100,000 U.S.               admissions for new court sentences or
   residents in 2005 to 511 per 100,000 in          probation revocations. However, incarceration
   2006, then to 550 per 100,000 in 2011.           rates in all three states will grow, meaning that


                                                                                  Public Safety Performance Project         9
inability to reduce
        FIGURE 6:                                                                                                            recidivism rates—all
        Projected National Prison Population                                                                                 contributed to the
        and Incarceration Rate, 2006-2011                                                                                    higher projections.
        US Prison Population                                                                                Inmates per
        in millions                                                                                    100,000 residents
        1.80                                                                                                         560     A region-by-region
        1.75                                                                                              550       540
                                                                                                                             summary of the
                           Incarceration Rate                                              544
                                                                         538                                                 estimates and factors
        1.70                                            530                                                         520
                                         519
                                                                                                       1,722,477             that underpin the
                      511                                                               1,686,495
        1.65                                                                                                        500      estimated growth
                                                                       1,654,668
        1.60                                                                       Prison Population                480      follows. But before
                                                      1,614,808
                                                                                                                             proceeding to these
        1.55                           1,568,822                                                                    460
                                                                                                                             regional variations, a
        1.50       1,530,454                                                                                        440      number of other
        1.45                                                                                                        420      policy-related issues
                                                                                                                             merit discussion.
        1.40                                                                                                        400
                     2006                2007           2008             2009             2010           2011                These issues emerged
                                                                                                                             during researchers’
   Source: JFA Institute                                                                                                      interviews with state
                                                                                                    correctional officials and planners who are
                                                                                                    directly involved in the states’ forecasts.

        FIGURE 7
        Projected Change in Regional                                                                Growth of Women Prisoners Will
        Incarceration Rates, 2006-2011                                                              Continue to Outpace Males
                                                                                                    The female prisoner population, while well
               16%
                                                                                                    below the size of the male prisoner
               14%
                                                                                                    population, has been growing at a faster rate
               12%

               10%
                                                                                                    for many years. The Bureau of Justice
               8%                                                                                   Statistics (BJS), part of the U.S. Department
               6%                                                                                   of Justice, notes in its most recent prison
               4%                                                                                   population report that the female population
               2%
                                                                                                    has grown by 57 percent since 1995,
               0%
                           Northeast        Midwest            South            West
                                                                                                    compared to a 34-percent increase for males.12

                                                                                                    For this forecast, 25 states, covering only
   Source: JFA Institute
                                                                                                    about one-third of the national prison
                                       the greater prison admissions or longer LOS,                 population, were able to provide their
                                       or both, are causing the prisons to grow faster              projections by gender. In these 25 states,
                                       than the general population. In these and other              females are expected to grow at a faster rate
                                       states, state officials reported that the                    (16 percent) than males (12 percent).
                                       cumulative effects of lengthy mandatory prison               Researchers’ interviews with other state
                                       terms adopted in the 1980s and 1990s, reduced                correctional officials suggest that higher
                                       parole grant rates, and high numbers of parole               female growth rates are likely to continue in
                                       and probation violators—coupled with an                      the other states as well.



10 Public Safety, Public Spending
Disaggregating in this manner is desirable         Corrections Workforce
because women have unique security and             Recruitment and Retention
programmatic needs that may not be met if          is a Growing Concern
the size of the female population is not           As their prison populations increase, states
properly estimated. For example, women are         need to find qualified applicants for
typically housed in much lower-security-level      correctional officer positions and other prison
facilities than men and require a lower staff-     jobs. Many of the state officials contacted for
to-inmate ratio. The construction of female        this report expressed concern that even if
facilities is increasingly designed to meet the    they can secure the necessary funding to
unique custody and service needs of women.         build and operate an expanded prison
Also, because the female prison population         system, it will be increasingly difficult to find
has risen faster for the past decade, failure to   qualified workers to fill these positions.
perform separate forecasts by gender could         These officials already face a high turnover
distort growth estimates for women                 rate and a growing number of “baby
prisoners.                                         boomer” employees now nearing retirement.
                                                   A number of Southern states (especially
In addition, females generally pose a              Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama) are
significantly lower risk to public safety than     hoping to increase salary levels to attract and
males. BJS studies of female recidivism rates      retain qualified staff to work in prisons that
have consistently shown that women have a          are often located in economically depressed
lower recidivism rate than males and are far       rural areas. Such increased salaries will carry
less likely to commit a violent or sex crime       an obvious fiscal burden for state
upon release.13 The disproportionate increases     governments.
in the female prison population, then, are
somewhat ironic.                                   Methamphetamine-related
                                                   Cases are on the Rise
Age of Inmates (and the                            Many states are seeing significant growth
Cost of Their Medical Care)                        in prison admissions related to
is Expected to Rise                                methamphetamine addiction. In Georgia, for
BJS reports that the average age of prisoners      example, meth-related admissions more than
being released to parole has increased from        tripled, from 977 inmates in fiscal years 1999
31 to 34 between 1990 and 1999.14 There are        and 2000 to 3,579 in fiscal years 2004 and
no more recent national data, and states were      2005. With meth offenders currently serving
not able to provide prisoner age projections       an average of 5.5 years in prison, officials
for this report, but policy experts and state      estimate that the cumulative cost of housing
officials are concerned that the aging trend       these inmates alone will exceed $340
will accelerate largely because of the longer      million.15
prison terms being served under various
sentencing and release laws and policies. This     The rise of meth cases is not readily reflected
presents a major fiscal concern for states,        in the current forecast, but correctional
because as the prison population ages, the         officials have become increasingly concerned
medical costs of the corrections system are        that larger proportions of the probation and
expected to rise accordingly.                      parole populations are using the drug and
                                                   thereby increasing the likelihood of probation



                                                                                 Public Safety Performance Project   11
and parole revocations. To control the             The current five-year state projections do not
                      problem and its impact on prisons, many            reflect the long-term effects of such laws. The
                      correctional officials are calling for more        laws typically are not retroactive, and because
                      community-based treatment beds and wider           many of these offenders already spend longer
                      adoption of evidence-based practices for           than five years behind bars, the impact of the
                      treating meth abusers.                             longer sentences will not be felt on
                                                                         populations and budgets for some time
                      Impact of Enhanced Sex                             beyond the next five years. Over the next
                      Offender Sentences Will Be                         two decades, however, one can expect the
                      Felt Beyond Five Years                             number of prisoners convicted of sex crimes
                      Many states have recently passed sentencing        to expand rapidly.
                      laws for sex offenders that require a lengthier
                      period of incarceration and/or a lengthier and
                      more intense period of parole supervision.
                      One example is California, which under the
                      recently passed Proposition 83 requires sex
                      offenders to be tracked electronically for life.
                      This law will no doubt increase the number
                      of parolees returned to prison for technical
                      violations. In Kansas, a law enacted in 2006
                      will result in approximately 150 persons
                      convicted of child sex crimes being sentenced
                      to prison for terms approximately 16 years
                      longer than under earlier sentencing
                      practices.




12 Public Safety, Public Spending
Regional and State Trends


Northeastern Region                                  recidivism reduction initiatives. They funded
The Northeast historically has the lowest            two programs targeting violators, and required
incarceration rates, which will continue to be       the development of a comprehensive re-entry
true well into the next decade. Led by New           plan, with focus on the specific neighborhoods
York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and                  to which most prisoners were returning.
Connecticut, these states are estimating little if
any growth. Part of the explanation for this         Within two years following the development
trend is demographic, as this region is              and adoption of this strategy, Connecticut
estimated to grow slowly. Crime rates also are       went from having one of the fastest-growing
relatively low. The stability of incarceration       prison populations in the nation to
rates results from more than demography and          experiencing a decline steeper than almost
crime rates, however; states also have adopted       any other state. Crime rates in Connecticut
new policies that have controlled prison             also dropped during this period, faster than
population growth. In both Massachusetts             they were falling in the nation overall.
and New Jersey, for example, parole grant
rates have increased while state leaders have        Another big story in the
resisted calls to increase sentencing lengths.       Northeast has been New             Change in five-year projected
                                                     York, where the prison
                                                                                       state prison populations varies
Connecticut may provide one of the most              population has declined
striking and successful examples of policy           from a peak of 72,889 in            radically, from no growth in
intervention. Using data-driven analyses,            1999 to its current level of           New York, Delaware and
Connecticut policy makers identified that            about 63,000. Virtually all
                                                                                            Connecticut to 41 percent
parole and probation violators were driving          of this historic decline has
much of the prison growth. They passed               resulted from dramatic                       growth in Montana.
legislation in 2004 that set a goal of reducing      reductions both in serious
parole and probation revocations by 20               crime and in the number of felony arrests,
percent, and hired 96 new probation officers,        much of which can be linked to the well-
reducing caseloads from approximately 160            known reforms within the New York City
cases per officer in January 2004 to                 police department.16 Indeed, admissions to
approximately 100 cases per officer in June          state prison from New York City fell from
2005.                                                20,580 in 1993 to 8,490 in 2005. While the
                                                     state has not issued a formal prison
As part of a “justice reinvestment” strategy,        population forecast, the most recent trends
Connecticut redirected $13 million of the            show no reason to expect significant increases
expected savings from those reforms into             over the next five years.


                                                                                    Public Safety Performance Project    13
extending parole terms, especially for sex
                                                                                     offenders. Although the Department of
                                                                                     Corrections has expanded the programmatic
                                                                                     opportunities available to inmates, and linked
                                                                                     participation to additional good-conduct
                                                                                     credits, these efforts have not offset the
                                                                                     impact of sentencing initiatives enacted in
                                                                                     Illinois during the late 1990s.

                                                                                     Ohio had been experiencing declining prison
                                                                                     populations since 1999 as a result of a
                                                                                     sentencing reform initiative. Now the state is
                                                                                     experiencing increases because of higher-
                                                                                     than-expected prison admissions. A surge in
                                    Midwestern Region                                admissions of white females from a number
                                    The prison population of the Midwest             of rural counties has been especially
                                    continues to grow, primarily as a result of      dramatic. Based on these developments, Ohio
                                    increases in prison admissions from both new     estimates it will add over 17,000 inmates to its
                                    court admissions and parole violations. In       prison population over the next 10 years, a
                                    some states the long-term effects of truth-in-   37-percent increase. The female population
                                    sentencing laws that were enacted more than      will grow at an even faster rate of 47 percent.
                                    a decade ago are now affecting lengths of
                                    stay. In Illinois, for example, prison           Kansas is another Midwestern state that has
                                    admissions have increased every year, with       changed its direction. Between 2003 and 2006,
                                    the system thus setting new highs annually.      the prison population remained fairly stable.
                                    Parole violation rates are at a record high,     With the passage of new child sex offender
                                    and policy makers have enacted several laws      legislation and increases in the number of
                                                                                     offenders being imprisoned for violating
                                                                                     probation, the state’s latest forecast shows that
     TABLE 2
                                                                                     the prison population will increase from
     Ohio 10-Year Prison Population Projections,                                     approximately 9,000 to 11,231 by 2016. These
     2007–2016                                                                       projections would be even higher were it not
                                                                                     for recent legislative actions and correctional
     Date                      Male                    Female      Total
     2006                      43,965                   3,554      47,519            policy changes that will hold technical parole
     2007                      45,485                   3,726      49,211            violators accountable with graduated sanctions
     2008                      47,563                   3,985      51,548            prior to returning them to prison.
     2009                      49,354                   4,249      53,603
     2010                      50,889                   4,416      55,305
     2011                      52,625                   4,598      57,223            Iowa provides an interesting example of a
     2012                      53,832                   4,699      58,531            state in which the prison population is
     2013                      55,384                   4,802      60,186            projected to grow, but at a slower rate than
     2014                      56,941                   4,914      61,855
                                                                                     other Midwestern states. There have been
     2015                      58,184                   5,088      63,272
     2016                      59,756                   5,214      64,970            fewer new court commitments for the state in
     % Change                   36%                     47%         37%              recent years, although that has been
     Note: 2006 figure is the actual population as of 10/2/06.                       somewhat offset by higher rates of probation



14 Public Safety, Public Spending
and community
                               FIGURE 8
supervision (parole)
                               Projected Year-End Resident Population
admissions. To                 by Region, 2006-2011
control its prison
                                320 m
population, Iowa also
relaxed its truth-in-                                                                                      Total
                                290 m
sentencing laws,
dropping its                    120 m

requirement of time                                                                                        South
                                110 m
served from 85
percent to 70                   100 m

percent, and
                                 80 m
increased the number
of paroles. As a                 70 m                                                                      West

result of these                                                                                          Midwest
                                 60 m
changes, Iowa’s
growth rate is                   50 m
                                                                                                         Northeast

projected to be low
for the next five                40 m
                                             2006         2007          2008         2009         2010               2011
years. The long-term
                                                                                                                     Source: JFA Institute
estimates are higher,
however, because of the long-term effects of        which has one of the largest state prison
other decisions the state has made, such as         populations, is estimated to grow by an
abolishing or restricting parole for certain        additional 13,656 prisoners over the next five
crimes and increasing sentences for sex             years. Florida, another large state, will
offenders. Iowa estimates its prison                incarcerate more than 100,000 people by
population will rise from 8,737 in 2005 to          2011. At the same time, Maryland and
11,240 in 2015. As in Ohio, the female              Delaware have stable population trends.
population is projected to grow faster than         These states have been very active in
the male population.                                adopting a variety of
                                                    reforms designed to control
Southern Region                                     prison population growth.
                                                                                            By 2011, the imprisonment
The Southern states traditionally have had                                                       rate of the South will
the highest rates of incarceration, and that        Texas’s prison system will                       exceed that of the
will continue to be the case. Figure 8 shows        continue to grow in part
the projected populations of the four regions,      because of simple
                                                                                              Northeast by 80 percent.
with the South having the greatest projected        demographics: the state is
growth. Yet the forecast shows Southern             expected to grow by more than 2.3 million
states moving in different directions over the      residents over the next five years, for a total
next five years.                                    population of over 25 million. However, its
                                                    incarceration rate is projected to grow as well,
Some Southern states, such as Texas, Florida,       the result primarily of low parole grant rates
Georgia, South Carolina and West Virginia,          and a high number of probation revocations.
are projecting significant increases. Texas,        Texas policy makers have begun to evaluate



                                                                                  Public Safety Performance Project                          15
Pspp prison projections_0207
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Pspp prison projections_0207

  • 1. Public Safety, Public Spending Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007–2011
  • 2. Revised June 2007. The projected incarceration rates in this report have been updated with revised population estimates.
  • 3. About the Public Safety Performance Project A n operating project of The Pew Charitable Justice, and former bureau chief of the Bureau of Trusts, the Public Safety Performance Project Research and Data Analysis for the Florida Department seeks to help states advance fiscally sound, data- of Corrections. driven policies and practices in sentencing and corrections • Richard Berk, professor of criminology and statistics, that protect public safety, hold offenders accountable and University of Pennsylvania, and former Distinguished control corrections costs. The project helps states Professor of Statistics and Sociology at UCLA. diagnose the factors driving prison growth and provides • Gerald Gaes, visiting scientist at the National Institute policy audits to identify options for reform, drawing on of Justice, criminal justice consultant and former solid research, promising approaches and best practices in director of research for the Federal Bureau of Prisons. other states. The initiative also helps state officials, practitioners and others share state-of-the-art knowledge While these experts have screened the report for and ideas through policy forums, public opinion surveys, methodology and accuracy, neither they nor their current multi-state meetings, national, regional and state-level or former organizations necessarily endorse its findings convenings, and online information about what works. or conclusions. The project works closely with the Pew Center on the Substantial contributions to the report also were made by States (PCS), a division of Pew. By conducting nonpartisan the Vera Institute of Justice and the Council of State research and analysis, educating the public and federal and Governments Justice Center, partners of the Public Safety state policy makers, bringing together diverse stakeholders, Performance Project. Staff of both organizations reviewed and encouraging pragmatic, consensus-based solutions, drafts of the report and offered excellent comments and PCS identifies and advances effective public policy insights that were instrumental to its completion. approaches to critical issues facing states. We also would like to thank the 50 state correctional agencies and the federal Bureau of Prisons, which About this Report provided much of the data used to create the national forecast and other parts of this report. This report was prepared for the Public Safety Performance Project by the JFA Institute, a well-respected, Washington-based, nonprofit consulting firm. JFA is led by James Austin, Wendy Naro and Tony Fabelo, three Contact Information nationally renowned researchers with deep expertise in For more information, please visit www.pewpublicsafety.org state criminal justice policy and statistics. JFA conducts or contact Project Director Adam Gelb at prison population forecasts under contract with a number agelb@pewtrusts.org or (404) 848-0186. of states, and several other states use JFA’s software to make their projections. The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today’s most challenging problems. Pew applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the The report was reviewed by three independent specialists public and stimulate civic life. We partner with a diverse range of in prison population forecasting: donors, public and private organizations and concerned citizens • William Bales, associate professor, Florida State who share our commitment to fact-based solutions and goal-driven University, College of Criminology and Criminal investments to improve society. Public Safety Performance Project i
  • 4. Executive Summary fter a 700-percent increase in A The national price tag is staggering. The the U.S. prison population between projected 192,023 new prisoners—leave aside 1970 and 2005, you’d think the the current population of more than 1.5 nation would finally have run out of million inmates—could cost as much as $27.5 lawbreakers to put behind bars. billion: potentially a cumulative $15 billion in new operating costs and $12.5 billion in new But according to Public Safety, Public Spending: construction costs by 2011. Every additional Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007- dollar spent on prisons, of course, is one 2011, a first-of-its-kind projection, state and dollar less that can go to preparing for the federal prisons will swell by more than next Hurricane Katrina, educating young 192,000 inmates over the next five years. people, providing health care to the elderly, This 13-percent jump triples the projected or repairing roads and bridges. growth of the general U.S. population, and will raise the prison census to a total of more Don’t picture this parade of prisoners as an than 1.7 million people. Imprisonment levels exclusively male group. Nationwide, men are expected to keep rising in all but four outnumber women behind bars, but women states, reaching a national rate of 550 per are playing a dubious kind of catch-up here. 100,000, or one of every 182 Americans. If The number of women prisoners is projected you put them all together in one place, the to grow by 16 percent by 2011, while the incarcerated population in just five years will male population will increase 12 percent. In outnumber the residents of Atlanta, some states this disparity is particularly Baltimore and Denver combined. striking. Nevada, for example, is projecting a 36-percent increase in female prisoners over the next half-decade. National Prison Population, 1980-2011 2,000,000 1,800,000 Gender differences aren’t the only area in 1,600,000 which trends vary widely among states and 1,400,000 Projected 1,200,000 regions. Although national prison populations 1,000,000 Actual aren’t currently growing at the same furious 800,000 600,000 pace as they were a few years back, in some 400,000 200,000 states and regions growth rates remain in 0 crisis mode. Prison populations in the West, 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2011 Midwest and South are expected to increase Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics (historical) and JFA Institute ii Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 5. by double-digit percentages between 2006 and 2011, led by the West with a projected National Prison Incarceration Rate, 1980-2011 growth rate of 18 percent. The Northeast, 600 Prisoners per 100,000 residents with its slow population growth and steady 500 crime rates, will see slower but still costly Projected 400 growth of 7 percent during the same period. Actual 300 200 A few other trends add to the image of states’ 100 prisons and budgets stretched at the seams: • Over the next five years, the average 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2011 inmate will be more likely to be female or elderly—both groups that have special Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics (historical) and JFA Institute needs and higher costs. • In some states, corrections officials, already State Highlights having difficulty hiring and keeping guards on the job, are becoming more and more This report provides forecasts for prison concerned about finding and retaining populations and incarceration rates for all 50 qualified personnel to staff new prisons. states. Among its findings: • In some states, especially in the West, • By 2011, without changes in sentencing or Midwest and South, methamphetamine release policies, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, cases have become significant contributors Montana and Vermont can expect to see to prison growth. one new prisoner for every three currently • In the past few years, many states have in the system. enacted enhanced penalties for sex crimes. • Similarly, barring reforms, there will be one The impact of most of these laws on prison new prisoner for every four now in prison populations and state budgets will be felt in Colorado, Washington, Wyoming, beyond the five-year window of this report. Nevada, Utah and South Dakota. • Incarceration rates are expected to spike in Arizona and Nevada, from 590 and 540 prisoners per 100,000 residents, respectively, to 703 and 599. Particularly worrisome is the growth in the population of young males, the group at highest risk of 10 Highest-Growth States criminal activity. Both states have recently (by percent increase) increased their prison population forecasts because of the combined impact of Montana 41% demographics and policies that increase Arizona 35% prison terms. Alaska 34% Idaho 34% • Louisiana, which has the highest Vermont 33% incarceration rate among states, with 835 Colorado 31% prisoners per 100,000 residents, expects Washington 28% that figure to hit 852 by 2011. Wyoming 27% Nevada 27% • Florida is anticipated to cross the 100,000- Utah 25% prisoner threshold within the next five Public Safety Performance Project iii
  • 6. years, the only state other than Texas and heinous crime can have on the public’s views California to do so. about the appropriate punishment for that • None of the states is projecting an actual type of offense and incarceration in general. decrease in its number of prisoners between 2006 and 2011. The report projects no The size of a state’s prison system is growth in Connecticut, Delaware and New determined by two simple factors: how many York. people come in and how long they stay. Yet • The Midwest’s prison population continues both variables are the products of a dizzying to rise primarily because of increases in new array of influences, from policy-level decisions prison admissions and parole violations. and the discretion that judges, prosecutors Iowa’s prison population is expected to and corrections officials exercise in individual increase at a slower rate than other cases, to the larger forces at work in society. Midwest states. • Though the Northeast boasts the lowest During the past three decades, a number of incarceration rates, it has the highest costs changes in states’ sentencing and corrections per prisoner, led by Rhode Island ($44,860), policies have been particularly significant. Massachusetts ($43,026) and New York These include movement from indeterminate ($42,202). The lowest costs are generally in to determinate sentencing; abolition of parole the South, led by Louisiana ($13,009), and adoption of truth-in-sentencing Alabama ($13,019) and South Carolina requirements; lower parole grant rates; passage ($13,170). of “three-strikes” laws; and establishment of sentencing guidelines. While the impact of reforms varies in each state, the states report Driving Forces that these policy decisions are among the major drivers of their prison populations. Predicting the future is a risky business, of course. In Charles Dickens’ Christmas Carol, Scrooge asks the last ghost that appears to Implications for Public him, “Are these the shadows of the things Safety and Public Policy that Will be? Or are they shadows of things that May be, only?” It’s a tempting leap of logic to assume that the more people behind bars, the less crime In the world of criminal justice policy, as much there will be. But despite public expectations as in Dickens’ famed tale, nothing is inevitable. to the contrary, there is no clear cause and The size and attributes of a state’s prison effect. In fact, the question of the effect that population are linked to an array of factors. imprisonment has on crime rates cannot be Population growth and crime rates can be the solved with simple arithmetic. It requires fuel for this fast-moving train, but the throttle something more like a social policy calculus. is in the hands of state leaders who make related policy choices. Some of these decisions The central questions are ones of are made on the basis of careful analysis of effectiveness and cost. Total national facts and history. Others are predicated on spending on corrections has jumped to more anecdote and the impact a single, particularly than $60 billion from just $9 billion in 1980, iv Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 7. and yet recidivism rates have barely changed. More than half of released prisoners are back Methodology Overview behind bars within three years. If states want the best results from their correctional Forecasting prison populations has grown more sophisticated since systems over the next five years—both in the days of estimating using time series or trend analysis, which showed what had already happened but failed to make accurate terms of public safety and public spending— projections of future patterns. Today’s more advanced models are how should they approach the significant designed to mimic the flow of the correctional system based on prison population growth that is anticipated? probabilities of prison admissions and inmate lengths of stay. That question is the chief challenge states are facing. They are not fated to such high rates This national prison projection report was generated from data from of prison growth by factors out of their the states themselves. The federal Bureau of Prisons and 42 states (including the 36 states that use advanced simulation methods) control. The policy choices they make—the provided their official forecasts to form the basis of this report. Those sentencing and release laws, programs and jurisdictions accounted for 92 percent of the national prison population practices they enact and fund—are principal as of 2005. The remaining eight states were unable to provide determinates of the size, effectiveness and projections, so researchers calculated estimates using the states’ own cost of their corrections systems. most recent monthly population counts and available admission and release data. Those estimates—for Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, The key is for policy makers to base their Maine, New York, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming—are not official forecasts. decisions on a clear understanding of the costs and benefits of incarceration—and of Researchers also contacted each state to obtain the most current costs data-driven, evidence-based alternatives that per prisoner. The cost figures included administrative support, program can preserve public safety while saving much- services and facility maintenance. If a state contracts with a private needed tax dollars. To begin the process of prison company, researchers attempted to incorporate those into the looking at costs and benefits, state policy annual cost figure. makers need to know whether, and at what It’s important to note that an increase or decrease in a state prison rate, their correctional system is likely to population will not yield a direct change in operating costs. Some grow, and how their system’s growth rate states whose prison populations grow by only a small amount will compares to that of other states. By providing experience only marginal cost increases, such as the costs of medical this comparative data, this forecast can assist care and food; they will likely not need to hire additional staff or build states in their efforts to develop cost-effective new cells. Other states may pass a tipping point and proceed with options that reduce corrections expenditures constructing new prisons and taking on new staff. while protecting public safety. It’s possible, too, that the projected population may involve disproportionately lower-custody inmates or that a state may employ Those last two words—public safety—are of alternative, lower-cost housing methods and divert some offenders into particular consequence. No policy maker is community punishments. These scenarios would result in an likely to (or should) pursue a path that saves overestimate of future costs if the estimate is made using an average prison money if it runs a substantial risk of cost per inmate. increasing recidivism or crime rates. On the Capital costs for corrections are more difficult to project than operating other hand, an option that can lead to better costs. Prison beds cost about $65,000 to construct, but total public safety outcomes while saving money is construction cost figures exclude renovation and conversion of the picture that goes alongside the dictionary existing bed space. definition of win-win. For these reasons, the report does not provide cost estimates for each individual state. Public Safety Performance Project v
  • 9. Table of Contents Introduction .....................................................................................................................1 Forecasting Correctional Populations ........................................................................3 Micro-simulation Models ..........................................................................................................6 Accuracy of the Projection Models...........................................................................................7 National Prison Population Projection Estimates ...................................................9 Growth of Women Prisoners Will Continue to Outpace Males............................................10 Age of Inmates (and the Cost of Their Medical Care) is Expected to Rise .........................11 Corrections Workforce Recruitment and Retention is a Growing Concern .........................11 Rise in Methamphetamine-related Cases ...............................................................................11 Impact of Enhanced Sex Offender Sentences Will Be Felt Beyond Five Years .....................12 Regional and State Trends..........................................................................................13 Northeastern Region ...............................................................................................................13 Midwestern Region .................................................................................................................14 Southern Region .....................................................................................................................15 Western Region .......................................................................................................................17 Estimating Current and Future Prison Costs .........................................................18 Methodological Issues.............................................................................................................19 Current Operational Costs .....................................................................................................20 Estimates of Future Operational Costs ..................................................................................21 Capital Costs...........................................................................................................................22 The Relationship Between Incarceration and Crime Rates.................................23 Public Safety, Public Spending: The Challenge Ahead for State Policy Makers........................................................25 Appendix.........................................................................................................................27 Public Safety Performance Project vii
  • 10. Tables and Figures Table 1: Adult Correctional Populations, 1980-2005..........................................................2 Figure 1: Schematic Flow of Prison Population Components..............................................4 Figure 2: Crime and Incarceration Rates by State, 2004 .....................................................5 Figure 3: National At-Risk Population: Males Between 18-34.............................................6 Figure 4: Accurate Projections: West Virginia, 2004-2006 ..................................................8 Figure 5: Projections Responding to Change: Nevada, 2005-2006 .....................................8 Figure 6: Projected National Prison Population and Incarceration Rate, 2006-2011 ........10 Figure 7: Projected Change in Regional Incarceration Rates, 2006-2011 .........................10 Table 2: Ohio 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016 .....................................14 Figure 8: Projected Year-End Resident Population by Region, 2006-2011 ........................15 Table 3: Nevada 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016.................................16 Table 4: Arizona 10-Year Prison Population Projections, 2007-2016 ................................16 Table 5: Costs Per State Prisoner, 1984-2005 ...................................................................21 Figure 9: National Crime and Imprisonment Trends, 1931-2005 .....................................23 Appendix Table A-1: Key State Data, 2005 ...........................................................................................27 Table A-2: State, Regional and National Residential Populations, 2005-2011.....................28 Table A-3: State Prison Populations by Region, 2006-2011 .................................................29 Table A-4: State Prison Populations by Growth Rate, 2006-2011 .......................................30 Table A-5: State Incarceration Rates by Region, 2006-2011 ................................................31 Table A-6: State Incarceration Rates by Growth Rate, 2006-2011.......................................32 Table A-7: Annual Operating Costs per Inmate...................................................................33 Table A-8: Sources of State Prison Population Projections...................................................34 Table A-9: Sources of State Inmate Costs .............................................................................36 viii Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 11. Introduction his report estimates the T world in incarceration rates, well above Russia future size and cost of the state and and Cuba, which have the next highest rates federal prison systems. It examines of 607 and 487 per 100,000. Western the reasons for the projected growth and, since European countries have incarceration rates prison expansion is generally intended to that range from 78 to 145 per 100,000.3 reduce crime, it outlines what we currently know about the relationship between Probation and parole populations have incarceration and crime rates. Finally, the skyrocketed alongside the rapid growth in the report highlights the efforts of some states to state and federal prison systems. Since 1980, control corrections spending while protecting the total correctional population has grown public safety and holding offenders from 1.8 million to over 7 million people accountable for their actions. (Table 1). While the prison population has grown at the fastest rate, more than 4 million The past three decades have witnessed an adults are on probation, making that the At year-end historic increase in the nation’s penal system largest component of the correctional system; 2005, there were at all levels. In 1970, the state and federal it too has nearly tripled since 1980. prison population was less than 190,000. The almost 2.2 million latest report by the U.S. Department of Justice While noteworthy in their own right, national people—one in puts the 2005 population at nearly 1.5 trends tend to mask significant state-level every 136 U.S. million. Further, almost 750,000 people are variation. This is the case both for incarcerated in local jails, resulting in a total incarceration (covering jails and prisons)4 and residents— incarcerated population of almost 2.2 million, the population under community supervision in U.S. jails or 737 per 100,000 U.S. population.1 Put (including parole and probation). For and prisons. differently, for every 1,000 U.S. residents, example, while the national prison seven are incarcerated either in jail or prison incarceration rate in 2005 was 491 per on any given day. Each year, over 600,000 100,000 residents, Louisiana had the highest people are admitted to state and federal prison incarceration rate (797 per 100,000) prisons. A much larger number (over 10 followed by fellow Southern states Texas million) go to local jails. There are another (691), Mississippi (660) and Oklahoma (652). 4.3 million ex-convicts living in the U.S.2 Maine had the lowest incarceration rate (144), followed by Minnesota (180), Rhode Island The U.S. imprisons significantly more people (189) and New Hampshire (192).5 than any other nation. China ranks second, imprisoning 1.5 million of its much larger While it is generally true that Southern states citizen population. The U.S. also leads the have high incarceration rates while Public Safety Performance Project 1
  • 12. national correctional system. Currently, each TABLE 1 state bears responsibility for forecasting its Adult Correctional Populations, 1980–2005 own population. A national forecast such as this will have several important uses. Population 1980 2005 % Change Probation 1,118,097 4,162,536 272% First, state policy makers need to know how Jail 183,988 747,529 306% Prison 319,598 1,461,132 357% much their correctional system is likely to Parole 220,438 784,408 255% grow, if at all, so that they at least can ensure Total Adults that sufficient funds are available to support Under Corrections 1,842,100 7,155,605 288% growth. This is especially true for the jail and Adult Population 162.8 Million 222.3 million 36% prison systems that must maintain standards of % of Adults Under care for their prisoners. Second, because Corrections 1.1% 3.2% differences in population increases often reflect Sources: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Prisoners in 2005, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Paige M. Harrison and Allen J. Beck (Washington, D.C.: differences in criminal justice policies, November 2006), NCJ 215092; U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 2005, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Paige M. understanding such policy differences and their Harrison and Allen J. Beck (Washington, D.C.: May 2006), NCJ 213133 and U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. Probation and Parole in the US 2005, Bureau of impact on prison populations and costs can Justice Statistics Bulletin, by Lauren E. Glaze and Thomas P. Bonozar (Washington, D.C.: November 2006), NCJ 215091 help policy makers better evaluate whether they should pursue reforms. Third, given the Northeastern states have low rates, there is large and increasing amount of taxpayer funds considerable variation even among states being devoted to prison systems, policy makers from the same region or sharing similar want to ensure that their investments in public crime rates. For example, North and South safety are generating their intended results. If Dakota had low but very different other states are slowing the growth of their incarceration rates in 2005: 208 per 100,000 prison populations while achieving better for North Dakota versus double that—443— public safety outcomes, such as lower for South Dakota. In the South, North recidivism rates or lower crime rates, policy Carolina’s incarceration rate is 360 while makers want to know that. South Carolina’s is 525.6 As discussed later, these pronounced differences in incarceration Finally, the costs of constructing and operating rates often reflect different sentencing laws and jail and prison systems are an ongoing concern correctional policies that have been adopted by for policy makers. Between 1982 and 2003, policy makers. In other words, the size and national spending on criminal justice increased attributes of a state’s prison population are from $36 billion to $186 billion. Over $61 heavily determined by policy choices. billion of that total is allocated to local, state, and federal corrections.7 Indeed, corrections In light of that, it would be valuable for policy spending—which consists primarily of budgets makers and the public to understand the likely for jails and prisons—grew by more than 570 future outcomes in states that have adopted percent during that period, faster than any varying policies. While the U.S. Department other aspect of the criminal justice system. of Justice provides accurate and Given the phenomenal period of growth in comprehensive historical data on the size and correctional populations and its associated attributes of the various correctional costs to the taxpayer, public officials are populations, there is no organization or agency becoming increasingly concerned about what that provides estimates of the future size of the the costs will look like in the future. 2 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 13. Forecasting Correctional Populations stimating the future size of any E The basic formula is: correctional system is part science and Prison admissions x length of stay (LOS) = part judgment. Criminal justice policy Average Daily Population (ADP)8 is a dynamic phenomenon and is difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty. This simplistic formula becomes far more During the past three decades, we have complex when one begins to understand the witnessed a wide array of policy shifts in myriad factors that can influence admissions sentencing, including some states abolishing and the LOS. Relatively minor changes in parole, moving from indeterminate to admissions or LOS can have an enormous determinate sentencing, establishing impact on the ADP. For example, if the LOS sentencing guidelines, and adopting truth-in- in a prison system is 30 months, an increase sentencing and “three-strikes” laws. Many of of three months in the LOS would increase these changes were intended to remove repeat the ADP by 10 percent. Changes in the LOS offenders from the streets. But as the cost of can be achieved by modifying sentence corrections has skyrocketed, so has interest in lengths, awarding or rescinding good time finding cost-effective options that could credits, changing parole eligibility dates, and reduce expenditures without jeopardizing paroling (or not paroling) offenders at either public safety. their initial parole date or at a subsequent parole Between probation, parole, Identifying these options requires sound hearing. jail and prison, the U.S. research, comprehensive analysis and reliable forecasting techniques to better inform Figure 1 illustrates the correctional population policy makers and the public about the various internal and exceeds 7 million people. consequences of current and proposed external factors that One in every 32 U.S. adult policies. Estimating the future prison influence ADP and population is the beginning of this enterprise, therefore influence a residents is currently under not the end. Decision makers need to forecast of the future ADPs. correctional supervision. understand why prison populations are External factors reflect the growing and how future changes will affect interplay of demographic, socio-economic and the system. crime trends that produce arrests, and offenders’ initial entry into the criminal justice In the simplest terms, prison populations process. Criminologists have long noted that (and all correctional populations) are the certain segments of the population have higher result of two factors: the number of people rates or chances of becoming involved in admitted to prison and how long they stay. crime, being arrested and being incarcerated. Public Safety Performance Project 3
  • 14. FIGURE 1 Schematic Flow of Prison Population Components Demographics—at risk population Crime Arrests New New Charge Convictions Charge Probation Prison Technical Violator Technical Violator Parole/Community Supervision Release to Community 4 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 15. FIGURE 2 Crime and Incarceration Rates by State, 2005 800 LA 700 Incarceration Rate per 100,000 residents TX MS OK 600 AL MO GA SC AZ 500 ID MI FL KYVA DECA AR NV SD CO TN WY AK 400 CTWI MT IN OH MD IL NC OR NY NJPA KS NM HI 300 WV IA WA VT MA NE UT 200 NH ND RI MN ME 100 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Crime Rate per 100,000 residents Source: FBI Uniform Crime Report and BJS This is known as the “at-risk” population, It is unfortunate but true that African- which generally consists of younger males. Americans and Hispanics have significantly The high crime rate ages are 15-25, while the higher arrest and incarceration rates than high adult incarceration rate is between the whites. One must also factor in the extent to ages of 18 and 35. When the at-risk which these racial and ethnic groups within population is expected to increase in a these age ranges are also projected to jurisdiction, one can also expect some increase. As shown in Figure 3, the number additional pressure on criminal justice of at-risk African-American and Hispanic resources, all things being equal. males has been increasing over the past few years. States that are projected to have a Figure 2 shows the association between crime larger at-risk population over the next decade rates (which are produced in part by also are likely to experience continued demographic and socio-economic trends) and pressures on criminal justice and correctional incarceration rates. The figure plots the crime resources based on demographic growth. and incarceration rates for each state, showing that states with low crime rates tend to have Internal factors reflect the various decision lower incarceration rates. The spread of states points within the criminal justice system that up and to the right on the graph shows that cumulatively determine prison admissions states with higher crime rates tend to have high and LOS. These decisions begin with police incarceration rates. The last section of this and end with correctional officials who, report summarizes what is known about the within the context of the court-imposed relationship between crime and incarceration. sentences, have the authority to release, Public Safety Performance Project 5
  • 16. criminal justice systems often vest considerable FIGURE 3 discretion in their public leaders who construct National At-Risk Population: these policies and procedures. A complete Males Between 18-34 understanding of these complex influences is 25 m essential to the accuracy of planning and 20 m White forecasting a prison or jail population. 8m Hispanic Micro-simulation Models 7m Traditionally, prison populations were 6m estimated using time series or trends analysis. 5m Black This was easy to do since the historic counts 4m were readily available and it required little 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 — skill to use such methods. These methods Source: U.S. Census Bureau were very inaccurate, however, especially in recommit, give and restore a wide array of an environment where policy is very good time credits, and offer supervision and dynamic. Time series models can show only services that may reduce recidivism.9 what has already occurred; they cannot estimate future populations based on current For example, one of the most difficult or future criminal justice policies and numbers to estimate is the number of prison sentencing legislation. admissions for the next five years. As suggested by Figure 1, people come to prison To better account for such a complex and for three basic reasons: (1) they have been dynamic system, a new generation of micro- directly sentenced by the courts to a prison simulation models has been developed to help term (new court commitments); (2) they have decision makers estimate the effects of current failed to complete their term of probation and policies and the likely consequences of specific are now being sentenced to prison for a policy proposals. These micro-simulation violation of the conditions of their release or models are designed to mimic the flow of (1) new crime; or, (3) they have failed their term the current prisoner population, and (2) the of parole (or post-release supervision) and are expected new admissions over the projection being returned to prison for a violation of the horizon based on these internal factors. Based conditions of their release or new crime. on stochastic entity simulation methods, the Almost two-thirds of the estimated 600,000- models mimic the actual flow of the plus people who are admitted to prison are correctional system based on current and future those who have failed to complete probation probabilities of being admitted to prison under a or parole. A projection model thus should particular legal status, with a certain sentence have a “feedback loop” that captures the for a certain crime, and being released at a expected rate of probation and parole failures. certain time based on probabilities of receiving good time and being released on parole. The impact of recently enacted sentencing Similarly, each person released to probation or laws, judicial decisions and other criminal parole has a certain probability of being justice policy choices also must be considered revoked for a new crime or technical violation in a population forecast. These complex factors and being returned to prison for a certain also vary from state to state. State and local period of time before being re-released. All of 6 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 17. these “probabilities” are based on the current Time series or regression models are not able behavior of the decision makers. to employ such techniques and thus are less able to demonstrate their accuracy. Moreover, Accuracy of the because they are based on historical patterns Projection Models that do not account for contemporary policies A recurring question about any projection or laws, they often either over- or model is its accuracy. In one sense this is the underestimate short-term developments. wrong question to ask, since a forecast of any correctional system is predicated upon the Figures 4 and 5 highlight recent accuracy assumptions of future criminal justice policy. analyses for West Virginia and Nevada, both Because such policies are constantly in flux, of which employ simulation models. West the projection must be modified as lawmakers Virginia reflects a fairly stable policy adopt new policies and correctional officials environment, so the 2004 projection has been adjust their administrative procedures. For quite accurate for the past two years. example, if a parole board implements new Conversely, the Nevada estimate issued in parole guidelines that serve to increase the March 2005 began to display an rate of parole for low-risk prisoners from 35 underestimate in fall 2005. This was caused percent to 50 percent, the projection model’s by a significant and unexpected surge in new parole grant rates must be similarly adjusted court commitments, largely from the Las and thus show a lower forecast. If the Vegas metropolitan area. The model’s new legislature adopts a longer sentencing range court intake estimates were then adjusted for drug dealers that is not retroactive to the with the assumption that new admissions current prisoner population, the new would continue to grow at the 2006 rather admission stream must be altered and will than the 2005 rate. As shown in the graph, show a higher projection. this single change in the new admission assumption increased the 10-year forecast by Despite the nuances of the dynamic policy over 900 prisoners. arena, the models must demonstrate that they would be accurate if policies remain constant. The micro-simulation models are especially adept in this regard if they are designed to model both the current and future correctional populations. For the first 12 to 18 months of a projection, the current parole and prison populations have a large influence on the forecast since it takes that long for large numbers of that population to exit. Further, the micro-simulation models are loaded with the most current data to reflect current practices and are then “started” several months in the past to see if they are mimicking actual monthly counts of admissions, releases and populations. Only when this test has been successful is the forecast deemed “accurate.” Public Safety Performance Project 7
  • 18. Two of the most significant examples of FIGURE 4 overestimates occurred in Virginia after it Accurate Projections: West Virginia, 2004-2006 adopted truth-in-sentencing laws and in 5800 California after it adopted its “three-strikes” 5600 mandatory sentencing laws. The Virginia 5400 error resulted in a massive over-construction Actual plan to build prison beds that were not Inmates 5200 Projected 5000 needed. In subsequent years Virginia was able 4800 to cancel some of its construction plans and 4600 recoup some of its losses by renting out the 4400 surplus prison beds at a profit to states that 4200 had crowded systems. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 In California, the original estimate was that the Source: JFA Institute “three-strikes” legislation would more than double the inmate population from 121,000 FIGURE 5 prisoners in 1994 to over 245,000 in 1999. It Projections Responding to Change: turned out that the prison population rose to Nevada, 2005-2006 160,000. The estimate was off by a staggering 13500 85,000 inmates. The primary source of the July 2006 projection 13000 error was an assumption that all criminal cases 12500 Actual population that fit the criteria for either a second- or third- Inmates 12000 strike sentence would be so prosecuted. In 11500 reality, prosecutors used the law to plea April 2005 projection bargain a large number of cases to lesser 11000 10500 charges. And in several major counties, 10000 including San Francisco and Alameda Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep (Oakland), prosecutors rarely applied the law.10 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 06 Source: JFA Institute The lesson for “projectionists” is that they The level of accuracy raises the issue of must anticipate adjustments that practitioners under- and overestimates. It is fair to say that will make to new policies that strain their correctional officials are more fearful of an agencies’ capacities or their local community underestimate, which may lead to crowding standards. For instance, it can’t be assumed and perhaps a more dangerous prison that mandatory sentencing laws will be strictly environment. Overestimates typically pose followed by prosecutors or the courts. For this little operational problem to prison officials reason it is useful to discount the estimated who may welcome a surplus of vacant prison effects of such laws. beds or at least a reduction in existing crowding. However, overestimates are viewed with disdain by some state fiscal analysts, who may feel (rightly or wrongly) that the projections were manipulated by the prison agency to secure extra, unneeded funding. 8 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 19. National Prison Population Projection Estimates o make an estimate of the T 4. The Western region will have the largest U.S. prison population, the researchers prison population increase (18 percent) for this report contacted each of the 50 while the Northeast will experience the states and the federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) smallest growth (7 percent). and requested their current official population 5. There is considerable variation among the projections. Where available, projections by states. Montana, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, gender were also requested. Vermont and Colorado all are poised to grow by more than 30 percent under The BOP and 42 states provided at least a five- current criminal justice policies. year prison population forecast. These Conversely, Connecticut, Delaware, New reporting jurisdictions accounted for 92 percent York and Maryland are expected to have of the national prison population as of 2005. little if any growth. For the remaining eight states, researchers 6. Four states—Florida, California, Arizona made estimates based on current population and Texas—and the federal prison system trends and extrapolated for five years.11 will account for more than 87,000 additional prisoners, or about 45 percent of Figures 6 and 7 provide the national and the total prison population increase. regional estimates based on the data received from the states and the BOP and the In reviewing these trends estimates for states with no official projection. and discussing them with By 2011, America’s prison Detailed tables for each state are shown in the states, researchers population is projected to the appendix. The national and state learned that a wide array of increase by 192,000 to over estimates reveal the following major trends: factors were influencing these estimates. For a 1.7 million inmates. 1. The nation’s state and federal prison number of Southern and One in every 182 U.S. population will reach 1,722,477 by 2011— Western states, demographic residents will live in prison. an increase of approximately 192,000 over growth, particularly for the a five-year period. at-risk population, was a 2. This rate of growth—about 38,400 more major concern. This was especially true in inmates per year—is markedly higher than Arizona, Nevada and Texas, all of which have the growth rate of the past three years. recently increased their prison population 3. The prison incarceration rate will continue estimates because of increases in prison to grow, from 491 per 100,000 U.S. admissions for new court sentences or residents in 2005 to 511 per 100,000 in probation revocations. However, incarceration 2006, then to 550 per 100,000 in 2011. rates in all three states will grow, meaning that Public Safety Performance Project 9
  • 20. inability to reduce FIGURE 6: recidivism rates—all Projected National Prison Population contributed to the and Incarceration Rate, 2006-2011 higher projections. US Prison Population Inmates per in millions 100,000 residents 1.80 560 A region-by-region 1.75 550 540 summary of the Incarceration Rate 544 538 estimates and factors 1.70 530 520 519 1,722,477 that underpin the 511 1,686,495 1.65 500 estimated growth 1,654,668 1.60 Prison Population 480 follows. But before 1,614,808 proceeding to these 1.55 1,568,822 460 regional variations, a 1.50 1,530,454 440 number of other 1.45 420 policy-related issues merit discussion. 1.40 400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 These issues emerged during researchers’ Source: JFA Institute interviews with state correctional officials and planners who are directly involved in the states’ forecasts. FIGURE 7 Projected Change in Regional Growth of Women Prisoners Will Incarceration Rates, 2006-2011 Continue to Outpace Males The female prisoner population, while well 16% below the size of the male prisoner 14% population, has been growing at a faster rate 12% 10% for many years. The Bureau of Justice 8% Statistics (BJS), part of the U.S. Department 6% of Justice, notes in its most recent prison 4% population report that the female population 2% has grown by 57 percent since 1995, 0% Northeast Midwest South West compared to a 34-percent increase for males.12 For this forecast, 25 states, covering only Source: JFA Institute about one-third of the national prison the greater prison admissions or longer LOS, population, were able to provide their or both, are causing the prisons to grow faster projections by gender. In these 25 states, than the general population. In these and other females are expected to grow at a faster rate states, state officials reported that the (16 percent) than males (12 percent). cumulative effects of lengthy mandatory prison Researchers’ interviews with other state terms adopted in the 1980s and 1990s, reduced correctional officials suggest that higher parole grant rates, and high numbers of parole female growth rates are likely to continue in and probation violators—coupled with an the other states as well. 10 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 21. Disaggregating in this manner is desirable Corrections Workforce because women have unique security and Recruitment and Retention programmatic needs that may not be met if is a Growing Concern the size of the female population is not As their prison populations increase, states properly estimated. For example, women are need to find qualified applicants for typically housed in much lower-security-level correctional officer positions and other prison facilities than men and require a lower staff- jobs. Many of the state officials contacted for to-inmate ratio. The construction of female this report expressed concern that even if facilities is increasingly designed to meet the they can secure the necessary funding to unique custody and service needs of women. build and operate an expanded prison Also, because the female prison population system, it will be increasingly difficult to find has risen faster for the past decade, failure to qualified workers to fill these positions. perform separate forecasts by gender could These officials already face a high turnover distort growth estimates for women rate and a growing number of “baby prisoners. boomer” employees now nearing retirement. A number of Southern states (especially In addition, females generally pose a Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama) are significantly lower risk to public safety than hoping to increase salary levels to attract and males. BJS studies of female recidivism rates retain qualified staff to work in prisons that have consistently shown that women have a are often located in economically depressed lower recidivism rate than males and are far rural areas. Such increased salaries will carry less likely to commit a violent or sex crime an obvious fiscal burden for state upon release.13 The disproportionate increases governments. in the female prison population, then, are somewhat ironic. Methamphetamine-related Cases are on the Rise Age of Inmates (and the Many states are seeing significant growth Cost of Their Medical Care) in prison admissions related to is Expected to Rise methamphetamine addiction. In Georgia, for BJS reports that the average age of prisoners example, meth-related admissions more than being released to parole has increased from tripled, from 977 inmates in fiscal years 1999 31 to 34 between 1990 and 1999.14 There are and 2000 to 3,579 in fiscal years 2004 and no more recent national data, and states were 2005. With meth offenders currently serving not able to provide prisoner age projections an average of 5.5 years in prison, officials for this report, but policy experts and state estimate that the cumulative cost of housing officials are concerned that the aging trend these inmates alone will exceed $340 will accelerate largely because of the longer million.15 prison terms being served under various sentencing and release laws and policies. This The rise of meth cases is not readily reflected presents a major fiscal concern for states, in the current forecast, but correctional because as the prison population ages, the officials have become increasingly concerned medical costs of the corrections system are that larger proportions of the probation and expected to rise accordingly. parole populations are using the drug and thereby increasing the likelihood of probation Public Safety Performance Project 11
  • 22. and parole revocations. To control the The current five-year state projections do not problem and its impact on prisons, many reflect the long-term effects of such laws. The correctional officials are calling for more laws typically are not retroactive, and because community-based treatment beds and wider many of these offenders already spend longer adoption of evidence-based practices for than five years behind bars, the impact of the treating meth abusers. longer sentences will not be felt on populations and budgets for some time Impact of Enhanced Sex beyond the next five years. Over the next Offender Sentences Will Be two decades, however, one can expect the Felt Beyond Five Years number of prisoners convicted of sex crimes Many states have recently passed sentencing to expand rapidly. laws for sex offenders that require a lengthier period of incarceration and/or a lengthier and more intense period of parole supervision. One example is California, which under the recently passed Proposition 83 requires sex offenders to be tracked electronically for life. This law will no doubt increase the number of parolees returned to prison for technical violations. In Kansas, a law enacted in 2006 will result in approximately 150 persons convicted of child sex crimes being sentenced to prison for terms approximately 16 years longer than under earlier sentencing practices. 12 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 23. Regional and State Trends Northeastern Region recidivism reduction initiatives. They funded The Northeast historically has the lowest two programs targeting violators, and required incarceration rates, which will continue to be the development of a comprehensive re-entry true well into the next decade. Led by New plan, with focus on the specific neighborhoods York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and to which most prisoners were returning. Connecticut, these states are estimating little if any growth. Part of the explanation for this Within two years following the development trend is demographic, as this region is and adoption of this strategy, Connecticut estimated to grow slowly. Crime rates also are went from having one of the fastest-growing relatively low. The stability of incarceration prison populations in the nation to rates results from more than demography and experiencing a decline steeper than almost crime rates, however; states also have adopted any other state. Crime rates in Connecticut new policies that have controlled prison also dropped during this period, faster than population growth. In both Massachusetts they were falling in the nation overall. and New Jersey, for example, parole grant rates have increased while state leaders have Another big story in the resisted calls to increase sentencing lengths. Northeast has been New Change in five-year projected York, where the prison state prison populations varies Connecticut may provide one of the most population has declined striking and successful examples of policy from a peak of 72,889 in radically, from no growth in intervention. Using data-driven analyses, 1999 to its current level of New York, Delaware and Connecticut policy makers identified that about 63,000. Virtually all Connecticut to 41 percent parole and probation violators were driving of this historic decline has much of the prison growth. They passed resulted from dramatic growth in Montana. legislation in 2004 that set a goal of reducing reductions both in serious parole and probation revocations by 20 crime and in the number of felony arrests, percent, and hired 96 new probation officers, much of which can be linked to the well- reducing caseloads from approximately 160 known reforms within the New York City cases per officer in January 2004 to police department.16 Indeed, admissions to approximately 100 cases per officer in June state prison from New York City fell from 2005. 20,580 in 1993 to 8,490 in 2005. While the state has not issued a formal prison As part of a “justice reinvestment” strategy, population forecast, the most recent trends Connecticut redirected $13 million of the show no reason to expect significant increases expected savings from those reforms into over the next five years. Public Safety Performance Project 13
  • 24. extending parole terms, especially for sex offenders. Although the Department of Corrections has expanded the programmatic opportunities available to inmates, and linked participation to additional good-conduct credits, these efforts have not offset the impact of sentencing initiatives enacted in Illinois during the late 1990s. Ohio had been experiencing declining prison populations since 1999 as a result of a sentencing reform initiative. Now the state is experiencing increases because of higher- than-expected prison admissions. A surge in Midwestern Region admissions of white females from a number The prison population of the Midwest of rural counties has been especially continues to grow, primarily as a result of dramatic. Based on these developments, Ohio increases in prison admissions from both new estimates it will add over 17,000 inmates to its court admissions and parole violations. In prison population over the next 10 years, a some states the long-term effects of truth-in- 37-percent increase. The female population sentencing laws that were enacted more than will grow at an even faster rate of 47 percent. a decade ago are now affecting lengths of stay. In Illinois, for example, prison Kansas is another Midwestern state that has admissions have increased every year, with changed its direction. Between 2003 and 2006, the system thus setting new highs annually. the prison population remained fairly stable. Parole violation rates are at a record high, With the passage of new child sex offender and policy makers have enacted several laws legislation and increases in the number of offenders being imprisoned for violating probation, the state’s latest forecast shows that TABLE 2 the prison population will increase from Ohio 10-Year Prison Population Projections, approximately 9,000 to 11,231 by 2016. These 2007–2016 projections would be even higher were it not for recent legislative actions and correctional Date Male Female Total 2006 43,965 3,554 47,519 policy changes that will hold technical parole 2007 45,485 3,726 49,211 violators accountable with graduated sanctions 2008 47,563 3,985 51,548 prior to returning them to prison. 2009 49,354 4,249 53,603 2010 50,889 4,416 55,305 2011 52,625 4,598 57,223 Iowa provides an interesting example of a 2012 53,832 4,699 58,531 state in which the prison population is 2013 55,384 4,802 60,186 projected to grow, but at a slower rate than 2014 56,941 4,914 61,855 other Midwestern states. There have been 2015 58,184 5,088 63,272 2016 59,756 5,214 64,970 fewer new court commitments for the state in % Change 36% 47% 37% recent years, although that has been Note: 2006 figure is the actual population as of 10/2/06. somewhat offset by higher rates of probation 14 Public Safety, Public Spending
  • 25. and community FIGURE 8 supervision (parole) Projected Year-End Resident Population admissions. To by Region, 2006-2011 control its prison 320 m population, Iowa also relaxed its truth-in- Total 290 m sentencing laws, dropping its 120 m requirement of time South 110 m served from 85 percent to 70 100 m percent, and 80 m increased the number of paroles. As a 70 m West result of these Midwest 60 m changes, Iowa’s growth rate is 50 m Northeast projected to be low for the next five 40 m 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 years. The long-term Source: JFA Institute estimates are higher, however, because of the long-term effects of which has one of the largest state prison other decisions the state has made, such as populations, is estimated to grow by an abolishing or restricting parole for certain additional 13,656 prisoners over the next five crimes and increasing sentences for sex years. Florida, another large state, will offenders. Iowa estimates its prison incarcerate more than 100,000 people by population will rise from 8,737 in 2005 to 2011. At the same time, Maryland and 11,240 in 2015. As in Ohio, the female Delaware have stable population trends. population is projected to grow faster than These states have been very active in the male population. adopting a variety of reforms designed to control Southern Region prison population growth. By 2011, the imprisonment The Southern states traditionally have had rate of the South will the highest rates of incarceration, and that Texas’s prison system will exceed that of the will continue to be the case. Figure 8 shows continue to grow in part the projected populations of the four regions, because of simple Northeast by 80 percent. with the South having the greatest projected demographics: the state is growth. Yet the forecast shows Southern expected to grow by more than 2.3 million states moving in different directions over the residents over the next five years, for a total next five years. population of over 25 million. However, its incarceration rate is projected to grow as well, Some Southern states, such as Texas, Florida, the result primarily of low parole grant rates Georgia, South Carolina and West Virginia, and a high number of probation revocations. are projecting significant increases. Texas, Texas policy makers have begun to evaluate Public Safety Performance Project 15