International Workshop on “Climate Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia” Jakarta, April 20, 2011

1. Urgent Actions Needed to Address Emerging Food Security Challenges Shenggen FanDirector General International Food Policy Research Institute International Workshop on “Climate Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia” Jakarta, April 20, 2011

2. Key messages Global food insecurity persists, including in Southeast Asia Food price volatility, biofuel expansion, and climate change are major emerging food security challenges Urgent actions are needed to address these challenges Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing global food security

3. Many are still hungry despite progress Number of undernourished persons Source: Data from FAO 2011 Source: United Nations 2010

4. Global food price hikes and volatility Global hikes since June 2010 Maize: 90% Wheat: 82% Volatility due to Natural disasters Panic purchases Trade restrictions, etc. High domestic food inflation (yoy) China: 11% (Feb. 2011) India: 11% (Feb. 2011) Indonesia: 14% (Mar. 2011) Source: Data from FAO 2011

5. Domestic prices are also rising rapidly Source: FAO 2011

6. High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary Self-reported food insecurity in select countries Source: Headey 2011

7. Rising energy prices influence food security Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010) Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008) Source: Data from IMF 2011

9. increase CO2 emissions through conversion of e.g. rainforests and grasslandsYearsto repay carbon debt for 9 scenarios of biofuel production (Fargione et al. 2008)

10. Climate change adds to pressure on food systems Climate change impact on production: Irrigated rice, 2050 Increased intensity and rate of natural disasters e.g. droughts and floods Large yield losses and production cuts SE Asia total production = -17% Source: IFPRI 2011

12. agric. and non-agric. infrastructure damages

13. farm and non-farm income declines

14. higher expenditure costs, etc.Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2011 Disaster risk management should be integrated ex ante into food security strategies (Haen 2008)

15. Urgent actions needed to address emerging food security challenges

16. Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure

17. Promote productive social safety nets Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009) Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009) Nigeria Fadama II Development Project Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)

18. Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (1) Share of global crop production,2007 (%) Share of world GDP, PPP (%) Source: Data from IMF 2011Note: Projections after 2009 Source: Data from FAO 2011

19. Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (2) South-South trade: Expanding South-South FDI: ~1/3 of all FDI to developing countries Emerging economies: promote technologies more suitable for developing countries provide buffer during crises provide platform for mutual learning Agriculture and food exports to developing countries (US$ bil.) Source: Data from UNCTAD 2011