SITE 2014 Presentation. Abstract: Blended learning in K-12 classrooms is growing at an enormous rate. While the Educational Success Prediction Instrument (ESPRI) has been used to predict the success of students in online courses, it has yet to be applied to blended courses. This study examined the use of the ESPRI to predict the success of students enrolled in a secondary advanced biology course where the first half of the course was offered in a traditional format and the second half was offered in a blended format. Differences in student performance between the two portions of the course were not statistically significant (p = .35). The ESPRI correctly predicted approximately 88% of the outcomes. Limitations of the study included a small sample size (N = 43) relative to the number of items in the instrument. Additional research should examine the effectiveness of the instrument on students from across the achievement spectrum and not what is considered the ideal online learner.

1. Applying the ESPRI
to K-12 Blended
Learning
Jason Siko
Assistant Professor of Educational Technology
Grand Valley State University

2. The problem
Attrition in online courses
Difficult to tell extent, because
organizations often do not report the same
information
Some leave out attrition w/in first few
weeks
Some eliminate failures or “outliers”
Why do students not complete online
courses?

3. The perfect online
learner
Barbour & Reeves, 2009
Motivated
Independent
Supportive family
Access to technology and
workspace
…does this describe all online
learners?

4. Possible factors
influencing success
Kim, Park, Cozart (2013)
Self-efficacy
Reason for taking course (acceleration,
credit recovery)
Achievement beliefs
Vicious cycle when isolation, difficulty, and
level of perseverance lead to frustration.

5. What about blended?
Staker (2011): “…any time a student learns at
least in part at a supervised brick- and-mortar
location away from home and at least in part
through online delivery with some element of
student control over time, place, path, and/or
pace” (p.11)
Fastest growing segment of online learning
(Watson et al., 2011)
Research on K-12 blended learning is lagging
behind its exponential growth in several areas
(Barbour, Siko, Gross, & Waddell, 2013)

6. Educational Success Prediction
Instrument (ESPRI)
Validated instrument shown to accurately
predict success (~pass vs. fail) in an online
course
Accurately predicted success in ~90% of cases
(Roblyer & Marshall, 2003; Roblyer, Davis,
Mills, Marshall, and Pape, 2008) in online
courses
Asks questions in 4 areas
Self-efficacy/Technology Use
Achievement Beliefs
Risk-taking beliefs (in classroom)
Organization beliefs
http://tinyurl.com/sikoespri

7. Research Questions
1. Is there any difference in student
performance between the traditional and
blended portions of the course?
2. How well does the ESPRI survey accurately
predict the performance of students in a
blended course?

8. Setting
AY2011-2012
Large, suburban, Midwestern high school
(~1800 students in grades 10-12)
Culturally homogenous; however, diverse with
respect to SES
Course: International Baccalaureate Biology –
Higher Level (IB Bio-HL)
43 students, grade 11
1st half of course – Face-to-face
2nd half of course - blended

9. Methods
RQ1: Compare grades for F2F and
blended semesters
Paired t-test
RQ2: Administer ESPRI at beginning of
blended semester
Use end-of-semester grades, pass/fail
(70% cutoff)
Multiple discriminant analysis
Wilks’ lambda and Press’s Q to test for
validity of results

10. RQ1
Not significantly different, t(42) = 0.95; p = .35.
Different content covered; may not be equal in
difficulty

11. RQ2
Overall, predicted 38/43 cases (~88%)
Concerns:
Low sample size (20:1 ratio of cases:factors)
Wilks’ lambda was not statistically significant
However, Press’s Q statistic was statistically
significant

12. Further directions
Larger studies using ESPRI in blended learning
situations
Develop methods of providing targeted
support to students who score low in certain
areas of ESPRI
Authors of previous studies involving ESPRI
recommend NOT using instrument as a selection
tool for online courses; rather, use it to provide
supports
Need for systematic study of student
performance where students have low scores on
ESPRI and were provided support

13. Questions?
Thanks for coming!
Jason Siko
Assistant Professor of Educational Technology
Grand Valley State University
Grand Rapids, MI
sikojp@gmail.com / sikoj@gvsu.edu
http://jasonsiko.com
@jasonsiko