International Development Seminar Series November 9-10, 2009 Lausanne, Switzerland

1. Feeding and Fueling the World to 2030 and Beyond Land Use Change from a Food Security Perspective Siwa Msangi Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI International Development Seminar Series 9-10 November 2009, Royal Savoy Hotel, Lausanne, Switzerland

5. Page Page Where will new production come from? The needed increase in production, to meet demand can come from additional yield on existing land or achieving a sufficient level of production on new land = change in production = change in yield on harvested area previously cultivated = average yield on additional land going into prod’n

6. Where is the land for agriculture? Page Source: Fields et al , 2007 Global Land Areas from HYDE-3 LU data

9. Additional yield growth in cereals to offset malnutrition impacts of US biofuels target Page Global Cereal Yield Growth Malnourished children (0-5) Additional (annual average) yield growth in cereals: 1% in developing world 0.5% in developed world In other words…. Going from: 1.3%  1.8% Avg annual yield growth, globally

12. Country-level perspective on linkage b/w biofuels, growth and poverty Page

15. Mozambique: Agricultural land use Land allocated to export crops declines fastest… … but most displaced land comes from food crops Source: Arndt et al. 2008 Land displaced by biofuels (total = 415 000 hectares)

18. Connections to household food security Page

21. Impact pathways of food security Page Retail food prices Income Price transmission World Price Changes Household-level decisions & outcomes Macro-scale market conditions National commodity prices Off-Farm income sources Own cons’n Nutrition, health & well-being Marketed surplus Markets ( marketing policy) Processing & marketing Producer decisions Consumer decisions Food purchases (subsidies & policy)

23. Key dimensions of household choices Page Preferences & market conditions market opportunities Could be biofuel-related Expenditure Trade-off market opportunities Income Savings ( mkt return ) food non-food farm non-farm cash crop food crop agric. non-agric. own production marketed food allocation Labor/resource allocation diversification

26. Concluding Thoughts Page

29. Thank You! Page

30. Extra slides Page

31. Regional per cap variation stands out …. especially meat Page Per capita Cereal Demand to 2050 Per capita Meat Demand to 2050

32. Page Page Outlook for cereal production Total Cereal Production to 2050 Per Capita Cereal Production to 2050 Continue to depend on key regions to deliver...

33. A varied pattern of child malnutrition IMPACT model projections Prevalence of pre-School Child Malnutrition in Asia and Africa (% of population aged 0 to 5) Total Levels of pre-School Child Malnutrition in Developing World (millions of children aged 0 to 5)

34. Mozambique example: poverty Biofuels investments reduce poverty (raises returns to land and labor) Jatropha out-grower scheme is more pro-poor (absolute and relative def.) Urban households benefit from processing and indirect jobs (raises semi-skilled wages) (Arndt et al., 2008)