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The Effects of
Patent Oppositions: A Comparative
Study of U.S. and European Patents


   *Dietmar Harhoff (Univ. L-M Munich)
   *Bronwyn Hall (UC Berkeley)
   David Mowery (UC Berkeley)
   Stuart Graham (UC Berkeley)
Outline

     Introduction
     Research questions
     Brief review of prior literature
     Institutional similarities and differences
     Data and preliminary results
     Discussion


5/16/01          IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford   2
Patents: some background
     Importance of patents for securing returns to
     innovation long recognized (Arrow 1962).
     Surge in U.S. patenting (Kortum & Lerner 1997)
     accompanied by increased scholarly focus on
     the role of intellectual property in business
     strategy (Teece, 1986).
     Firms’ strategic uses of patents are complex and
     not well understood (Cohen et al 1997; Hall &
     Ziedonis 2000).
     Expansion of subject matter (e.g., increase in
     software and business method patenting) have
     raised concerns about prior art search.
5/16/01            IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford    3
Patents: enforcement and
administration
   Policy issues related to the “quality” of patents, the
   expansion of subject matter, and the costs of
   enforcement have invited increasing interest
   One current trend in the scholarship examines
   enforcement though contract, i.e. licensing (Arora
   1995; Nickerson 1996) and another through litigation
   (Lanjouw & Lerner 1996; Lanjouw & Schankerman
   2000; Somaya 2000).
   But this scholarship is limited in scope—both in terms of
   geography and procedure.
   Recent research examines “oppositions” in Europe
   (Harhoff & Reitzig 2000).
   Needed: an examination of cross-jurisdictional
   differences.
5/16/01             IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford       4
Research Questions - Overview

   What are the determinants of firms' post-
   issue patent challenges in the United
   States and Europe?
   What are the characteristics of similar
   inventions patented—and challenged—in
   these two jurisdictions?



5/16/01        IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford   5
Research Questions 1

     Are oppositions more likely to be filed against
     “important” EPO patents, as measured in terms of
     the citation counts to their US equivalents? Yes – see
     Harhoff & Reitzig.
     Is a EPO patent more likely to be challenged (in
     opposition) than a US patent (in either a re-
     examination or litigation)? Yes – for reexamination
     Are US patents that have opposed EPO equivalents
     significantly more likely to be subject to re-
     examination or litigation in the US?


5/16/01              IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford       6
Research Questions 2

     Is the outcome of an opposition more significant than
     a reexamination, as measured in terms of change in
     the number of claims or the probability of revocation?
     How do opposition outcomes compare with those of
     litigation?
     What can be said about the cost, speed and
     efficiency of the opposition system as compared to
     the reexamination and litigation options available in
     the US?



5/16/01             IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford        7
Institutional similarities: US and EU

     Requirements for Utility Patent: US
      !   Available for “processes, machines, manufactures,
          or compositions of matter”
           " Novel
           " Useful
           " Non-obvious




5/16/01               IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford      8
Institutional similarities: US and EU


     Requirements for Utility Patent: EU
      !   Patents have been available in the European
          Patent Office (EPO) since 1977
           " Novel (analogous to US “novel”)
           " Inventive Step (roughly analogous to US “non-
             obvious”)
           " Industrial Application (roughly analogous to US
             “useful”)



5/16/01               IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford       9
Overview of Institutional Differences:
US and EU

   United States patent challenges
    !     Reexamination post-issue (life of patent)
    !     Litigation for validity or infringement
   EU (EPO) patent challenges
    !     Post-grant opposition (within 9 mos.)
    !     Litigation for validity or infringement in
          national courts


5/16/01                IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford   10
Validity and Infringement

     Validity questions
      !   Novelty/nonobviousness/inventive step
          requirement
      !   Scope of grant
      !   Adequacy of specification (ambiguity, sufficiency,
          etc.)
     Infringement questions
      !   Scope of patent claims
      !   Does 3rd party process/product fall within scope of
          patent claims?

5/16/01                IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford       11
Institutional Differences: US and EU
United States
!   Secrecy throughout the period that patent application is pending
    (during our sample period)
!   Re-examination after issue – limited to validity questions;
    examiners are final arbiters.
      " Administrative ex parte proceeding—requester role limited to
          application, and to
            !   Right to receive notice of decision
            !   Right to receive copy of patentee’s response
            !   Right to file rejoinder to that response
      " Relatively large filing fee ($2,500)
      " Admissible evidence limited—prior patents and publications
      " Regulatory hurdle: “Substantial question of patentability”
      " Barrier to pursuing litigation ex post
!   Lesson: significant limitations
5/16/01                         IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford          12
Institutional Differences: US and EU
 United States
  !   Litigation
       " Adversarial appeal to court-arbiter
       " Costly: estimates of patent suits run $1-5M,
          some as high as $20M in biotech.
       " Challenge contingent upon a charge by the
          patentee of infringement
       " Patent afforded a presumption of validity
       " Burden of proof is much more than a mere
          preponderance—”clear and convincing” standard
       " Judge, jury may have limited expertise

5/16/01             IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford     13
Institutional Differences: US and EU
 European Patent Office (EPO)
  !   Publication of application 18 months after application
      date
  !   Opposition – validity only
          " Administrative adversarial proceeding initiated by any third
              party
          "   Time limit: Must file within 9 months of patent grant
          "   Patent may be challenged on any of the grounds of
              patentability—novelty, inventive step, industrial application
          "   No limits on the kinds of evidence admissible
          "   Examiners and then administrative judges (on appeal) hear
              challenge
          "   Much lower cost than litigation, but slow.

5/16/01                      IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford               14
Institutional Differences: US and EU
 European Patent Office (EPO)
  !   Litigation – infringement
          " No EPO challenge
          " Separate litigation in each of the individual
            nations in which the patent was claimed
          " German example
             !   Proceedings delayed if opposition proceedings
             !   No jury; 3 judge panel plus a technical expert
             !   Time – 18 months
             !   Cost – several $100K
             !   Shortcoming - no discovery
             !   Loser pays costs
5/16/01                     IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford         15
EPO System                                                 USPTO System
                                                       Invention
                                                                                                                      1 year
First to file                                                                              First to invent
                 Patent Application                                             Patent Application

                                  18 mos
                                  Secrecy                                                             Rejected
                    Publication       Disclosure                                  Secrec
                                                                                  y
                                                       2-3 years
     Rejected                                                                   Patent Issues
                  Patent Issues
                                                                                                                 Re-issue
                                                                   Disclosure

                                       Opposition9
                                          mos
                                                                                                     Re-examination


                                                        20 years
                                       Litigation in
                                       all relevant
                                           states
                                                                                                        Litigation




   5/16/01                                   IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford                                            16
Re-examination and opposition rates for
                                       pharma/biotech and
                                       semiconductor/software technologies
                                                     USPTO Re-examinations by Application Year                                                                                       EPO Opposition Rate
                                                        1978-1994 for GHHM Technologies                                                                                       Fraction of Issued Patents Opposed

                                    1.2%                                                                                                            1 2.0 %




                                    1.0%                                                                                                            1 0.0 %
Num ber of Cases per Patent Grant




                                    0.8%                                                                                                             8 .0%




                                                                                                                                  Percent Opposed
                                    0.6%                                                                                                             6 .0%




                                    0.4%                                                                                                             4 .0%




                                    0.2%                                                                                                             2 .0%




                                    0.0%                                                                                                             0 .0%
                                                                                                                                                              1 97 8 1 97 9 1 98 0 1 98 1 1 98 2 1 98 3 1 98 4 1 98 5 1 98 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 1 99 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4
                                           1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Application Year
                                                                         Year Patent Applied For


                                                                                                                                                                                           Semiconductors/Softw are                   Pharma/biotech




                                           5/16/01                                                   IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford                                                                                                                                       17
Re-examination and Opposition Lag
                             Distribution

                                      Lag between Application and Re-examination                                                                                  Lag between Application and Opposition
                                                  USPTO 1981-2000                                                                                                            EPO 1978-1999

                   600                                                                                                                      600


                   500                                                                                                                      500


                   400                                                                                                                      400
Num ber of cases




                                                                                                                        Number of Patents
                   300                                                                                                                      300



                   200                                                                                                                      200



                   100                                                                                                                      100



                    0
                                                                                                                                             0
                         0   1    2   3   4   5   6   7     8    9    10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19                             0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7      8    9   10    11      12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19

                                                          Years since application                                                                                                 Years since application




                                 5/16/01                                                       IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford                                                                                                         18
Institutional Differences: Outcomes
   Administrative and legal process: Europe
     !    Oppositions result in
           " 33% of patents are revoked in full (Merges,
             1999)
           " Our pharma/biotech data confirm these
              !   25% of patents are confirmed in full
              !   40% of patents are amended
              !   34% of patents are revoked in full
     !    Litigation results not known at this time


5/16/01                    IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford   19
Institutional Differences: Outcomes
   Administrative and legal process: US
     !    Re-examinations results (Stacy 1997)
           " 28% of patents are confirmed in full
           " 59% of patents are amended
           " 13% of patents are revoked in full
     !    Our results
           " See next slide
     !    Litigation
           " Invalidation rates under 50%

5/16/01                 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford   20
USPTO Re-examination Outcomes,
     1980-1999

Reexamination outcomes, 1980-1999
Of 3614 records, 3563 (98%) have outcome notations

                                   with                               Share
Claims        NOA*   Added     Cancelled Add&Cancel Totals     Share with any
Added          149     --         --          --     149       4.2%   14.1%
Cancelled      568    152         --          --     720       20.2% 40.5%
Amended        678    124        645          78     1525      42.8% 42.8%
No change     1169     --         --          --     1169      32.8% 32.8%
                              Total noted records:   3563
*NOA=no other action noted

     Each re-exam appears only once in the above table. Numbers in
     the last column do not add to 100% because the shares are for any
     such occurrence and some re-exams yield multiple outcomes.

    5/16/01                    IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford            21
Preliminary data on characteristics of
re-examinations
     One-third of overall cases involve patentholder as
     requester.
     Significant number of outcomes (nearly 15%) involve
     adding claims. A number of outcomes (about 7%)
     involve both adding, deleting claims (frequently,
     adding narrower claims).
     US equivalents in our pharma/biotech sample of
     patents that are opposed in EPO (456 total) are
     significantly more likely to be subject to re-
     examination (11/456) than patents in a “control”
     sample drawn from similar years and patent classes
     (1/456).

5/16/01             IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford    22
Preliminary data on EPO opposed patents
in pharma/biotech

     Outcomes of oppositions are consistent with Merges’
     data for overall oppositions.
      ! 25% of patents are confirmed in full

      ! 40% of patents are amended

      ! 34% of patents are revoked in full




5/16/01             IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford     23
Preliminary data on characteristics of
US equivalents of opposed patents
   Biotech/pharma sample
    !     “Forward” citations within 5 years of issue are
          greater for US equivalents than US patents in the
          control sample (4.2 cites/patent within “equivalents”
          population, vs. 2.4 cites/patent in the control
          sample).
    !     Cites per patent that is cited also are greater for
          patents in the equivalents population than in the
          control sample (5.3 vs. 3.5).
    !     Claims/patent in the equivalents population are
          modestly greater (14.3 vs. 12.4).


5/16/01                 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford       24
Indications of Quality and Reexaminations
                        Equivalents:                Control Sample:
            Citations:
            Tot pats:                        456                  456
            Fwd cites:                      4635                 2191
            w/in 5 year window:             1907                 1078
            pats w/ cite in 5 yrs:           362                  312

            Cites per all 456 pats:           4.2                     2.4
            Cites per pat w/ cite:            5.3                     3.5

            Claims:     453 records with data in each sample

            Tot clms:                       6457                  5617
            Clm/pat:                        14.3                  12.4

            Reexaminations:

            Reexs per 456 pats:                11                      1
  5/16/01                     IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford                 25
Probit for Re-examination
                       Probability of a Re-examination Request
                    Binary probit estimation (24,982 observations; 3715=1)

                                 Coefficient         Std.                          Std.
                                  estimate           Error     dProb/dx+           Error
      Year of grant                 -0.0132         0.0018       -0.0025          0.0003     **
      Bio/pharma                    0.0484          0.1112       0.0095           0.0224
      Semicond/software             -0.1970         0.0400       -0.0339          0.0062     **
      #cites = 1 or 2                0.3134         0.0277        0.0635          0.0059     **
      #cites = 3 to 10               0.7193         0.0285        0.1692          0.0078     **
      #cites = 10 to 20              1.1771         0.0514        0.3645          0.0199     **
      #cites > 20                    1.7349         0.0997        0.5840          0.0348     **
      Individually owned             0.1577         0.0971        0.0329          0.0220
      Government-owned              -0.4656         0.0433       -0.0741          0.0055     **
      Intercept                     24.7775         3.5028
      Log likelihood               -8977.86
      Chi-squared (df)            1802.2 (9)
      The excluded category is corporate-ow ned, w ith no cites, not BP or SS.
      +In the case of the dummies, this is the increase in probability for a unit change to the dummy

5/16/01                               IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford                                     26
Some very preliminary conclusions &
next steps
     US equivalents of EPO opposed patents appear to be slightly
     more “important,” based on forward citations, claims per patent.
     US equivalents are somewhat more likely to be subject to re-
     examination (need to pull out the outcomes for these specific re-
     exams).
     Despite tendency for opposed patents to be somewhat more
     subject to re-exam, other characteristics of the re-exam process
     (identity of requester, outcomes) seem to differ sharply from
     those of oppositions.
     We are currently working on better characterization of outcomes
     in both US and EPO systems, adding litigation data and additional
     data on opposition outcomes.
     Extend this general framework to 2 other major classes
     (software; semiconductors).
5/16/01                IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford             27

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Ghhm may01 slides

  • 1. The Effects of Patent Oppositions: A Comparative Study of U.S. and European Patents *Dietmar Harhoff (Univ. L-M Munich) *Bronwyn Hall (UC Berkeley) David Mowery (UC Berkeley) Stuart Graham (UC Berkeley)
  • 2. Outline Introduction Research questions Brief review of prior literature Institutional similarities and differences Data and preliminary results Discussion 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 2
  • 3. Patents: some background Importance of patents for securing returns to innovation long recognized (Arrow 1962). Surge in U.S. patenting (Kortum & Lerner 1997) accompanied by increased scholarly focus on the role of intellectual property in business strategy (Teece, 1986). Firms’ strategic uses of patents are complex and not well understood (Cohen et al 1997; Hall & Ziedonis 2000). Expansion of subject matter (e.g., increase in software and business method patenting) have raised concerns about prior art search. 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 3
  • 4. Patents: enforcement and administration Policy issues related to the “quality” of patents, the expansion of subject matter, and the costs of enforcement have invited increasing interest One current trend in the scholarship examines enforcement though contract, i.e. licensing (Arora 1995; Nickerson 1996) and another through litigation (Lanjouw & Lerner 1996; Lanjouw & Schankerman 2000; Somaya 2000). But this scholarship is limited in scope—both in terms of geography and procedure. Recent research examines “oppositions” in Europe (Harhoff & Reitzig 2000). Needed: an examination of cross-jurisdictional differences. 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 4
  • 5. Research Questions - Overview What are the determinants of firms' post- issue patent challenges in the United States and Europe? What are the characteristics of similar inventions patented—and challenged—in these two jurisdictions? 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 5
  • 6. Research Questions 1 Are oppositions more likely to be filed against “important” EPO patents, as measured in terms of the citation counts to their US equivalents? Yes – see Harhoff & Reitzig. Is a EPO patent more likely to be challenged (in opposition) than a US patent (in either a re- examination or litigation)? Yes – for reexamination Are US patents that have opposed EPO equivalents significantly more likely to be subject to re- examination or litigation in the US? 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 6
  • 7. Research Questions 2 Is the outcome of an opposition more significant than a reexamination, as measured in terms of change in the number of claims or the probability of revocation? How do opposition outcomes compare with those of litigation? What can be said about the cost, speed and efficiency of the opposition system as compared to the reexamination and litigation options available in the US? 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 7
  • 8. Institutional similarities: US and EU Requirements for Utility Patent: US ! Available for “processes, machines, manufactures, or compositions of matter” " Novel " Useful " Non-obvious 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 8
  • 9. Institutional similarities: US and EU Requirements for Utility Patent: EU ! Patents have been available in the European Patent Office (EPO) since 1977 " Novel (analogous to US “novel”) " Inventive Step (roughly analogous to US “non- obvious”) " Industrial Application (roughly analogous to US “useful”) 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 9
  • 10. Overview of Institutional Differences: US and EU United States patent challenges ! Reexamination post-issue (life of patent) ! Litigation for validity or infringement EU (EPO) patent challenges ! Post-grant opposition (within 9 mos.) ! Litigation for validity or infringement in national courts 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 10
  • 11. Validity and Infringement Validity questions ! Novelty/nonobviousness/inventive step requirement ! Scope of grant ! Adequacy of specification (ambiguity, sufficiency, etc.) Infringement questions ! Scope of patent claims ! Does 3rd party process/product fall within scope of patent claims? 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 11
  • 12. Institutional Differences: US and EU United States ! Secrecy throughout the period that patent application is pending (during our sample period) ! Re-examination after issue – limited to validity questions; examiners are final arbiters. " Administrative ex parte proceeding—requester role limited to application, and to ! Right to receive notice of decision ! Right to receive copy of patentee’s response ! Right to file rejoinder to that response " Relatively large filing fee ($2,500) " Admissible evidence limited—prior patents and publications " Regulatory hurdle: “Substantial question of patentability” " Barrier to pursuing litigation ex post ! Lesson: significant limitations 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 12
  • 13. Institutional Differences: US and EU United States ! Litigation " Adversarial appeal to court-arbiter " Costly: estimates of patent suits run $1-5M, some as high as $20M in biotech. " Challenge contingent upon a charge by the patentee of infringement " Patent afforded a presumption of validity " Burden of proof is much more than a mere preponderance—”clear and convincing” standard " Judge, jury may have limited expertise 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 13
  • 14. Institutional Differences: US and EU European Patent Office (EPO) ! Publication of application 18 months after application date ! Opposition – validity only " Administrative adversarial proceeding initiated by any third party " Time limit: Must file within 9 months of patent grant " Patent may be challenged on any of the grounds of patentability—novelty, inventive step, industrial application " No limits on the kinds of evidence admissible " Examiners and then administrative judges (on appeal) hear challenge " Much lower cost than litigation, but slow. 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 14
  • 15. Institutional Differences: US and EU European Patent Office (EPO) ! Litigation – infringement " No EPO challenge " Separate litigation in each of the individual nations in which the patent was claimed " German example ! Proceedings delayed if opposition proceedings ! No jury; 3 judge panel plus a technical expert ! Time – 18 months ! Cost – several $100K ! Shortcoming - no discovery ! Loser pays costs 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 15
  • 16. EPO System USPTO System Invention 1 year First to file First to invent Patent Application Patent Application 18 mos Secrecy Rejected Publication Disclosure Secrec y 2-3 years Rejected Patent Issues Patent Issues Re-issue Disclosure Opposition9 mos Re-examination 20 years Litigation in all relevant states Litigation 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 16
  • 17. Re-examination and opposition rates for pharma/biotech and semiconductor/software technologies USPTO Re-examinations by Application Year EPO Opposition Rate 1978-1994 for GHHM Technologies Fraction of Issued Patents Opposed 1.2% 1 2.0 % 1.0% 1 0.0 % Num ber of Cases per Patent Grant 0.8% 8 .0% Percent Opposed 0.6% 6 .0% 0.4% 4 .0% 0.2% 2 .0% 0.0% 0 .0% 1 97 8 1 97 9 1 98 0 1 98 1 1 98 2 1 98 3 1 98 4 1 98 5 1 98 6 1 98 7 1 98 8 1 98 9 1 99 0 1 99 1 1 99 2 1 99 3 1 99 4 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Application Year Year Patent Applied For Semiconductors/Softw are Pharma/biotech 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 17
  • 18. Re-examination and Opposition Lag Distribution Lag between Application and Re-examination Lag between Application and Opposition USPTO 1981-2000 EPO 1978-1999 600 600 500 500 400 400 Num ber of cases Number of Patents 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Years since application Years since application 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 18
  • 19. Institutional Differences: Outcomes Administrative and legal process: Europe ! Oppositions result in " 33% of patents are revoked in full (Merges, 1999) " Our pharma/biotech data confirm these ! 25% of patents are confirmed in full ! 40% of patents are amended ! 34% of patents are revoked in full ! Litigation results not known at this time 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 19
  • 20. Institutional Differences: Outcomes Administrative and legal process: US ! Re-examinations results (Stacy 1997) " 28% of patents are confirmed in full " 59% of patents are amended " 13% of patents are revoked in full ! Our results " See next slide ! Litigation " Invalidation rates under 50% 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 20
  • 21. USPTO Re-examination Outcomes, 1980-1999 Reexamination outcomes, 1980-1999 Of 3614 records, 3563 (98%) have outcome notations with Share Claims NOA* Added Cancelled Add&Cancel Totals Share with any Added 149 -- -- -- 149 4.2% 14.1% Cancelled 568 152 -- -- 720 20.2% 40.5% Amended 678 124 645 78 1525 42.8% 42.8% No change 1169 -- -- -- 1169 32.8% 32.8% Total noted records: 3563 *NOA=no other action noted Each re-exam appears only once in the above table. Numbers in the last column do not add to 100% because the shares are for any such occurrence and some re-exams yield multiple outcomes. 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 21
  • 22. Preliminary data on characteristics of re-examinations One-third of overall cases involve patentholder as requester. Significant number of outcomes (nearly 15%) involve adding claims. A number of outcomes (about 7%) involve both adding, deleting claims (frequently, adding narrower claims). US equivalents in our pharma/biotech sample of patents that are opposed in EPO (456 total) are significantly more likely to be subject to re- examination (11/456) than patents in a “control” sample drawn from similar years and patent classes (1/456). 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 22
  • 23. Preliminary data on EPO opposed patents in pharma/biotech Outcomes of oppositions are consistent with Merges’ data for overall oppositions. ! 25% of patents are confirmed in full ! 40% of patents are amended ! 34% of patents are revoked in full 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 23
  • 24. Preliminary data on characteristics of US equivalents of opposed patents Biotech/pharma sample ! “Forward” citations within 5 years of issue are greater for US equivalents than US patents in the control sample (4.2 cites/patent within “equivalents” population, vs. 2.4 cites/patent in the control sample). ! Cites per patent that is cited also are greater for patents in the equivalents population than in the control sample (5.3 vs. 3.5). ! Claims/patent in the equivalents population are modestly greater (14.3 vs. 12.4). 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 24
  • 25. Indications of Quality and Reexaminations Equivalents: Control Sample: Citations: Tot pats: 456 456 Fwd cites: 4635 2191 w/in 5 year window: 1907 1078 pats w/ cite in 5 yrs: 362 312 Cites per all 456 pats: 4.2 2.4 Cites per pat w/ cite: 5.3 3.5 Claims: 453 records with data in each sample Tot clms: 6457 5617 Clm/pat: 14.3 12.4 Reexaminations: Reexs per 456 pats: 11 1 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 25
  • 26. Probit for Re-examination Probability of a Re-examination Request Binary probit estimation (24,982 observations; 3715=1) Coefficient Std. Std. estimate Error dProb/dx+ Error Year of grant -0.0132 0.0018 -0.0025 0.0003 ** Bio/pharma 0.0484 0.1112 0.0095 0.0224 Semicond/software -0.1970 0.0400 -0.0339 0.0062 ** #cites = 1 or 2 0.3134 0.0277 0.0635 0.0059 ** #cites = 3 to 10 0.7193 0.0285 0.1692 0.0078 ** #cites = 10 to 20 1.1771 0.0514 0.3645 0.0199 ** #cites > 20 1.7349 0.0997 0.5840 0.0348 ** Individually owned 0.1577 0.0971 0.0329 0.0220 Government-owned -0.4656 0.0433 -0.0741 0.0055 ** Intercept 24.7775 3.5028 Log likelihood -8977.86 Chi-squared (df) 1802.2 (9) The excluded category is corporate-ow ned, w ith no cites, not BP or SS. +In the case of the dummies, this is the increase in probability for a unit change to the dummy 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 26
  • 27. Some very preliminary conclusions & next steps US equivalents of EPO opposed patents appear to be slightly more “important,” based on forward citations, claims per patent. US equivalents are somewhat more likely to be subject to re- examination (need to pull out the outcomes for these specific re- exams). Despite tendency for opposed patents to be somewhat more subject to re-exam, other characteristics of the re-exam process (identity of requester, outcomes) seem to differ sharply from those of oppositions. We are currently working on better characterization of outcomes in both US and EPO systems, adding litigation data and additional data on opposition outcomes. Extend this general framework to 2 other major classes (software; semiconductors). 5/16/01 IP Seminar, St. Peters Oxford 27