NTSB presents: Weatherwise
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NTSB Meteorologist, Donald Eick, talks about how important understanding weather is in safely planning and executing general aviation flight operations
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NTSB presents: Weatherwise
- 1. Office of Aviation Safety Weather Wise Donald Eick & Paul Suffern NTSB Meteorologists
- 3. 3 • Review Part 91 accident statisticsReview Part 91 accident statistics – Main weather threat areasMain weather threat areas – ThunderstormsThunderstorms • Making weather wise decisionsMaking weather wise decisions – Preflight weather briefingPreflight weather briefing – Utilizing briefing sourcesUtilizing briefing sources – UpdatesUpdates – Weather in the cockpitWeather in the cockpit Topics that will be discussed:Topics that will be discussed:
- 4. 4 NTSB Accident Statistics • 4,958 accidents • 1,641 fatalities • Weather was cited as a cause or factor in over 20% of these accidents
- 5. 5 NTSB Study 2007-2009 • > 60% Part 91 accidents involved personal flights with fixed-wing aircraft • Major CAST defining events: – Loss of control in flight/ground (LOC) – Abnormal runway contact – Controlled flight into terrain – Unintended flight into IMC – Thunderstorms/Windshear
- 6. 6 Part 91 Weather Related Accidents 2007-2009
- 7. 7 Part 91 Weather Related Accidents • Leading weather factors: – Adverse winds – Low ceilings & visibility – High density altitude – Aircraft icing; includes carburetor icing – Turbulence – Thunderstorms – Windshear – Precipitation; rain, snow, drizzle/mist, hail
- 8. 8 ADVERSE WINDS ACCOUNTS FOR ~52% OF WEATHERACCOUNTS FOR ~52% OF WEATHER RELATED ACCIDENTS:RELATED ACCIDENTS: • HIGH WINDHIGH WIND • CROSSWINDCROSSWIND • TAILWINDTAILWIND • GUSTSGUSTS • WIND SHIFTSWIND SHIFTS • VARIABLE WINDVARIABLE WIND
- 9. 9 Weather Related Accidents Weather related accidents have one ofWeather related accidents have one of the highest fatality rates!the highest fatality rates!
- 10. 10 Unfavorable Winds & High Density Altitude LAX07FA258 Quartering crosswind & tailwind
- 11. 11 Fatal 2Fatal 2 Serious 2Serious 2 LAX07FA258 Cameron Park, CA Aug 30, 2007
- 12. 12 Before you launch, get a preflight briefing!
- 13. 13 Preflight Planning NTSB study 41% of the weather relatedNTSB study 41% of the weather related accidents the pilot did not obtain oraccidents the pilot did not obtain or received an adequate weather briefingreceived an adequate weather briefing
- 14. 14 “I looked at the destination forecast and it indicated VFR conditions?” Departure Destination • What about the en route conditions? • When was the forecast issued? • Any adverse weather predicted? • What’s in the surrounding area?
- 15. 15 Say… what’s a mountain goat doingSay… what’s a mountain goat doing way up here in a cloud bank?way up here in a cloud bank?
- 16. 16 FOG Not a violent or dynamic weather eventNot a violent or dynamic weather event!! Most common cause of Part 91 weather relatedMost common cause of Part 91 weather related fatalities - VFR into IMC conditions.fatalities - VFR into IMC conditions. Number 1 cause of ATC delaysNumber 1 cause of ATC delays Common factor in runway incursion incidents &Common factor in runway incursion incidents & accidents.accidents. Common factor in Part 135/121 CFIT accidentsCommon factor in Part 135/121 CFIT accidents Flight crew not adhering to standard instrumentFlight crew not adhering to standard instrument approach procedures.approach procedures. Low Ceilings & Visibility
- 17. 17 What was the worst aviation accident in history?
- 18. 18 Worst Aircraft Accident in History KLM Flight 4805/Pan Am Flight 1736KLM Flight 4805/Pan Am Flight 1736 Los Rodeos Airport, TenerifeLos Rodeos Airport, Tenerife March 27, 1977March 27, 1977
- 19. 19 Tenerife, Canary Islands Pan Am and KLM B747’s March 22, 1977 583 fatalities
- 20. 20 VFR into IMCVFR into IMC
- 21. 21 ERA09LA392 RV7A, N774US Sanderson, FL July 8, 2009 • Non-instrument rated pilot • Departed VFR cross country to pickup friend and fly back to Sun City, FL • No flight plan or preflight briefing • Departure/destination - VFR
- 22. 22 ERA09LA392 – Sanderson, FL • Current conditions: – Stationary front – Convective activity • Encountered area of thunderstorms • Low overcast ceilings, rain and thunder reported by witness WX 240º 5KT 2 1/2SM TSRA BKN010 OVC020 23/22 A2990 RMK TSB14 OCNL LTGCG TS S MOV E
- 23. 23 ERA09LA39 - Sanderson, FL
- 24. 24 ERA09LA39 - Sanderson, FL
- 25. 25 ERA09LA392 – Sanderson, FL Fatal 1
- 26. 26 FAR 91.103 – Preflight ActionFAR 91.103 – Preflight Action
- 27. 27 Safety, better to think about itSafety, better to think about it down here than worry about itdown here than worry about it up there!up there!
- 28. 28 • Automated Flight Service Station (AFSS)Automated Flight Service Station (AFSS) 1-800-WX-BRIEF*1-800-WX-BRIEF* • Direct User Access Terminal ServiceDirect User Access Terminal Service (DUATS)*(DUATS)* • Internet sourcesInternet sources • Private VenderPrivate Vender • * Only recognized official sources* Only recognized official sources Weather Briefing SourcesWeather Briefing Sources
- 29. 29 • Adverse weatherAdverse weather • SynopsisSynopsis • Current conditionsCurrent conditions • En route forecastEn route forecast • Destination forecastDestination forecast • Alternate planningAlternate planning • Winds aloftWinds aloft • Notice to AirmenNotice to Airmen AFSS Standard Briefing
- 30. 30 Internet Weather A picture is worth a thousand words!
- 31. 31 Internet Sources • Official NWS site • Domestic & International products • Text & graphical products http://aviationweather.gov/ Note chart – quick indications of IFR/MVFR/VFR areas, turbulence, and icing
- 32. 32 NWS Internet
- 33. 33 Aviation Weather Services AC 00-45GAC 00-45G • Basic reference guide how to read and interpret all NWS weather products. • Listed as required knowledge in FAA Airmen test guides. http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/
- 36. 36 Thunderstorms Sun ‘n’ Fun March 31, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm winds of 65KT 40 aircraft damaged or destroyed
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- 42. 42 Weather Watch (AWW) WW 80 TORNADO FL CW 311000Z - 311700Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 20NE OCF/OCALA FL/ - 55WSW PBI/WEST PALM BEACH FL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /46W OMN - 48NW MIA/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040. Discussion..an ongoing Quasi-Linear ComplexDiscussion..an ongoing Quasi-Linear Complex of strong/severe TSTMS including embeddedof strong/severe TSTMS including embedded supercells and bow echoes moving eastwardsupercells and bow echoes moving eastward across central Florida. Conditions favorable foracross central Florida. Conditions favorable for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
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- 44. 44
- 45. 45 Significant Weather Charts • Pressure centers • Fronts • Wind flow • Precip type, coverage
- 47. 47 Convection
- 49. 49 NWS Convective Outlook Chart • Convective Outlook (AC) – organized areas of severe thunderstorms
- 50. 50 Get the Big Picture
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- 54. 54 • Forecasts are not always perfect!Forecasts are not always perfect! • Weather conditions changeWeather conditions change – is there a– is there a front expected in the vicinity, convectionfront expected in the vicinity, convection expected, night or early morning arrival?expected, night or early morning arrival? Get an update!Get an update! • Flight WatchFlight Watch • HIWAS & other weather broadcastsHIWAS & other weather broadcasts In-flight Briefing
- 55. 55 Weather Update • NWS products are updated at regular intervals – TAFs updated 6-hr, AMD as necessary – Convective SIGMETs – hourly 55 – AIRMETs – every 6-hr, AMD – SIGMETs - unscheduled – Weather Watches • PIREPs
- 56. 56 Hazardous Inflight Weather Advisory Service (HIWAS) • Selected VORs continuous broadcast of inflight weather advisories within 150NM
- 57. 57 En Route Flight Advisory Service (EFAS) • EFAS radio call “Flight Watch” • Available 0600-2200 local • Below FL180 on 122.0 MHz • Discrete frequencies above FL180
- 58. 58 Weather in the Cockpit • Access to updated weather en route • Increased situational awareness • Caution with data lag (NEXRAD) • Spatial resolution of data
- 59. 59
- 60. 60 Conditions worst than expected?Conditions worst than expected? Make a command decision – divert,Make a command decision – divert, alter plan, turn backalter plan, turn back Wait it out & take a breakWait it out & take a break Consider: frontal position, prevailingConsider: frontal position, prevailing wind, convection, time of daywind, convection, time of day Don’t push a bad situation!
- 62. 62 Why is the Thunderstorm the most Dangerous Aviation Weather Hazard? The greatest number of aviationThe greatest number of aviation weather hazards are bundled up in oneweather hazards are bundled up in one single source, the thunderstorm.single source, the thunderstorm.
- 63. 63 Squall LineSquall Line TornadoesTornadoes TurbulenceTurbulence IcingIcing HailHail Low ceilings & visibilitiesLow ceilings & visibilities Altimeter errorsAltimeter errors LightningLightning Heavy rain, variable winds & runwayHeavy rain, variable winds & runway contaminationcontamination Engine water ingestionEngine water ingestion Wind shear/Wind shear/MicroburstsMicrobursts Radar attenuationRadar attenuation Thunderstorm Hazards AC 00-24BThunderstorm Hazards AC 00-24B
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- 68. 68 CEN09FA369 Cessna 182, N1826T Dougherty, TX June 18, 2009 • VFR cross country • No weather briefing/flight plan filed • Witnesses reported blowing dust & high gusting winds at the time • Loss of control in flight after encountered thunderstorm gust front • Fatal 2 KLBB 26037G51KT 3/4SM BLDU SCT030 BKN070 24/14 A2990 RMK CB DSNT W-NW
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- 72. 72 Thunderstorms • All thunderstorms imply severe and greater turbulence
- 73. 73 NWS VIP WSR-88D LVL PRECIP MODE dBZ RAINFALL 0 0 1 2 <5 5 to 9 10 to 14 1 VERY LIGHT 3 4 5 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 .02 /hr 2 LIGHT TO MODERATE 6 7 30 to 34 35 to 39 .09/hr 3 STRONG 8 40 to 44 .48/hr 4 VERY STRONG 9 45 to 49 2.50/hr 5 INTENSE 10 50 to 54 5.70/hr 6 EXTREME 11 12 13 14 15 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 > 75 12.0/hr VIP/DBZ Conversion Chart Weather _ AC00-24B • LGT-MOD Turb and LTG possible • SVR Turb and LTG possible • SVR Turb likely With LTG • SVR Turb, LTG and GR likely, wind gusts • SVR-EXTRM Turb, LTG, large GR, extensive wind gusts
- 74. 74 30 40 45 50 55 60 60+ 20 30 40 50 50+ 20 Airborne Radar AC 25-11 NWS VIP Levels 30 40 46 50 56 57+ 18 Lvl 1 Lvl 2 Lvl 3 Lvl 4 Lvl 5 Lvl 6 >30 40 46 50 57 57+ Lvl 1 Lvl 2 Lvl 3 Lvl 4 Lvl 5 Lvl 6 ASR-9 Intensity Light Moderate Heavy Heavy Extreme Extreme 20 30 40 45 50 55 Unisys DTN WSI N N N 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NEXRAD Cockpit DO-267 10-30 >45-50 >50-55 >40 >30-40 >55 BoundariesFAA Revised Terms Existing Systems and BoundariesAir Traffic Control N = National Map I = Individual Site # = Radar Return in dBZ 4 levels
- 75. 75 Weather And Radar Processor (WARP)Weather And Radar Processor (WARP)
- 77. 77 • IFR Part 135 flight from McKinney, TX (TKI) to Tampa, FL (TPA) • Equipped with airborne weather radar, StormScope, XM satellite • Weather briefing • Anticipated deviating around weather ERA09FA389 Cessna 421C, N4467D Gulf of Mexico July 8, 2009
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- 80. 80 “Mr. Eick, may I be excused? My brain is full”
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- 84. 84 CEN11FA500 Piper Malibu PA-46, N46TW Rantoul, IL July 24, 2011 Encounter with severe weather at takeoff. Fatal 3.
- 85. 85 Rantoul, IL • Pilot obtained internet weather briefing and filed IFR flight plan • Rantoul (KTIP) to Sarasota (KSRQ) • In hurry to beat weather front moving through area
- 87. 87 CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, IL Photo’s taken by passenger on board accident airplane
- 88. 88 CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, IL
- 89. 89 CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, IL 1,163 lightning strikes within 30NM and 15-min of accident
Notas del editor
- Coding structure developed by the ICAO Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) to describe the important circumstances of aviation accidents, rather than the probable cause.
- Update to match March 31, 2011 thunderstorm event at 1800Z for Sun ‘n’ Fun