Overview of technological determinism and technological inevitablism. Analysis of implications in four key areas; environment, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, poverty.

1. Technodeterminism
Future Day | Saturday March 1 2014 | Andrew Dun

2. Goal: Optimise human wellbeing
Aspects to consider:
Determinism
Inevitabilism
Optimism
And then: Strategic consequences, Case studies

3. TD - Definitions
Futurism, Philosophy of Technology, Philosophy of Engineering, Media Theory.

4. TD - Definitions
'The belief in technology as a key governing force in society...'
Merritt Roe Smith (American Historian) - Technological Determinism in American Culture, in ‘Does Technology Drive History? - The
Dilemma of Technological Determinism’ (TDOTD), 1994, p2.
'The idea that technological development determines social change...'
Bruce Bimber (American Political Scientist) - Three Faces of Technological Determinism, in TDOTD, 1994, p80.
‘Technology determines history’
Rosalind Williams (American Historian) - The Political and Feminist Dimensions of Technological Determinism, in TDODT, 1994,
p218
'... the belief that social progress is driven by technological innovation, which in turn follows an
"inevitable" course.'
Michael L. Smith (American Historian) - Recourse of Empire: Landscapes of Progress in Technological America, in TDODT, 1994, p38
-> unpack...

5. Social Progress vs. Human Progress
Human Environment = Totality of conditions that directly impact human
welfare
Human Welfare -> May be cashed out in a variety of ways. Utilitarianism may
provide a starting point.
Human Progress = Changes in the human environment which produce
improvements in human welfare

6. Factors which may contribute to human progress:
Social conditions = Factors impacting human social circumstances, including
levels of freedom, fairness, justice, liberty, security, inclusiveness.
E.g. Institutions, laws, social norms, philosophical ideas, cultural values
Technological conditions = Factors impacting material conditions of life factors governing food, shelter, safety, communication, health
E.g. Agriculture, manufacturing, computation, communications,
medicine, environment, genetics

7. Technology
Historically: writing, fire, wheels onward.
Here = future technologies, predominantly advanced
technologies.

8. Determinisms - I
Really strong - Like the (Newtonian) trajectory of a billiard
ball on a table
Strong - like traffic lights determining traffic flow
Moderate - like weather determining how many people
buy ice cream
Weak - Like butterfly effects
Zero - no effect

9. Determinisms - II
Strong technodeterminism: The view that technological progress determines
human progress
Strong technoindeterminism: The view that technological progress has
negligible impact on human progress
Strong socialdeterminism: The view that social progress determines human
progress
Strong socialindeterminism: The view that social progress has negligible
impact on human progress

10. Welfare Models - Hybrid
Hybrid welfare model: Human welfare = Social conditions + Technological
conditions
Hybrid model Technodeterminism: Technological conditions -> Social
conditions
so Human welfare = Technological conditions
Hybrid model Social determinism: Social conditions -> Technological
conditions, so
Human welfare = Social conditions

11. Welfare Models - Social
Social welfare model: Human welfare = Social conditions
Social model Technodeterminism: Technological conditions -> Social
conditions
so Human welfare = Technological conditions
Social model Social determinism: Social conditions -> Technological
conditions
so Human welfare = Social conditions

12. Welfare Models - Technological
Technological welfare model: Human welfare = Technological conditions
Technological model Technodeterminism: Tech conditions -> Social
conditions
so Human welfare = Technological conditions
Technological model Social determinism: Social conditions -> Tech
conditions
so Human welfare = Social conditions
Non-deterministic welfare model?

13. Will assume that Technoindeterminism = Socialdeterminism and vice versa
On any model of human welfare, if strong technodeterminism is true, human
welfare is a product of technological conditions.
On any model of human welfare, if strong socialdeterminism is true,
human welfare is a product of social conditions - laws, norms, cultures
institutions.
Strong technodeterminism and strong socialdeterminism are mutually
exclusive.
Hereafter will abstract discussion from welfare models.

14. Technoinevatiblism
Strong technoinevitablism: The view that technological development is
entirely inevitable, independent of political, social, cultural, economic,
historical factors (cultural technological darwinism)
Strong technocontingentism: The view that technological development is
entirely dependent upon political, social, cultural, economic, historical factors
Equivalent categories may be posited for social conditions - social
inevitablism, socialcontingentism.
Unlike technodeterminism, it could be the case that both
technoinevitablism and social inevitablism are simultaneously true.

15. Arguments and Opinions - Pro Technodeterminism
Neil Postman (American media theorist): "the uses made of technology are
largely determined by the structure of the technology itself, that is, that its
functions follow from its form". Teaching As A Conserving Activity, 1979
Theodore Kaczynski (American mathematician, serial bomber): “It is not
possible to make a lasting compromise between technology and freedom,
because technology is by far the more powerful social force and continually
encroaches on freedom through repeated compromises.”
Industrial Society and Its Future (1995) - "Technology Is A More Powerful Social
Force Than The Aspiration For Freedom", item 125

16. Arguments and Opinions - Pro Technodeterminism
Aldous Huxley (British author): “Democracy can hardly be expected to flourish
in societies where political and economic power is being progressively
concentrated and centralized. But the progress of technology has led and is
still leading to just such a concentration and centralization of power.”
Brave New World Revisited (1958), Chapter 3 (p. 19)
Karl Marx (German philosopher, sociologist): "The Handmill gives you society
with the feudal lord: the steam-mill, society with the industrial capitalist" The
Poverty of Philosophy (1847)

17. Arguments and Opinions - Pro Technodeterminism
Thomas L. Friedman (American author): “The hidden hand of the market will
never work without a hidden fist. McDonald's cannot flourish without
McDonnell Douglas, the designer of the F-15. And the hidden fist that keeps
the world safe for Silicon Valley's technologies to flourish is called the US
Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.”
"A Manifesto for the Fast World". New York Times. March 28 (1999).
Marshall McLuhan (Canadian communication theorist): “The most human
thing about us is our technology.”
Man and the future of organizations, Volume 5, School of Business
Administration, Georgia State University, (1974) p. 19

18. Arguments and Opinions - Contra Technodeterminism
Leila Green (Australian media theorist): “Technology is always developed with
a particular purpose or objective in mind.. to benefit those who are capable of
funding its development.” Technoculture: From Alphabet to Cybersex (2002)
Langdon Winner (American social scientist / philosopher of technology):
"What matters is not the technology itself, but the social or economic system
in which it is embedded" Do Artifacts Have Politics? (1986)

19. Arguments and Opinions - Contra Technodeterminism
Eli Pariser (American author, internet activist): “Coders sometimes harbor God
impulses; they sometimes even have aspirations to revolutionize society. But
they almost never aspire to be politicians... But for programmers to shun
politics completely is a problem—because increasingly, given the disputes
that inevitably arise when people come together, the most powerful ones will
be required to adjudicate and to govern. “ The Filter Bubble: What The
Internet Is Hiding From You (2011)
National Handgun and Rifle Association (NHRA): “guns don’t kill people;
people kill people.” Various

20. https://theaveragepenguin.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/technodeterminism/

21. http://xkcd.com/1289

22. Arguments and Opinions - Pro Technoinevitablism
Daniel Chandler (British Semiotician): “Once a technology is introduced into a
culture what follows is the inevitable development of that technology.”
“Technological or Media Determinism’’ (1995)
John von Neumann (Hungarian-American Mathematician): “Technological
possibilities are irresistible to man.” ‘in L. Mumford - ‘The Pentagon of Power’
(1971), p. 186.

23. Kevin Kelly (American, Editor Wired Magazine):
“Extrapolated, technology wants what life wants:
Increasing efficiency
Increasing opportunity
Increasing emergence
Increasing complexity
Increasing diversity
Increasing specialization
Increasing ubiquity
Increasing freedom
Increasing mutualism
Increasing beauty
Increasing sentience
Increasing structure
Increasing evolvability”
― Kevin Kelly, What Technology Wants 2011

24. Arguments and Opinions - Pro Technoinevitablism
Ray Kurzweil - The Singularity Is Near (2005)

25. Arguments and Opinions - Contra Technoinevitablism
Michael and Joyce Huesemann (American chemical engineer, American
anthropologist): “Anyone who allows the technological imperative to guide
his actions has, in fact, given up any consideration of ethics in his decision
making.” Technofix: Why Technology Won't Save Us Or the Environment (2011)
Steven Pinker (Canadian Psychologist, Cognitive Scientist): ”There is not the
slightest reason to believe in a coming singularity. The fact that you can
visualize a future in your imagination is not evidence that it is likely or even
possible. Look at domed cities, jet-pack commuting, underwater cities, milehigh buildings, and nuclear-powered automobiles--all staples of futuristic
fantasies when I was a child that have never arrived. Sheer processing power
is not a pixie dust that magically solves all your problems.” Tech Luminaries
Address Singularity, IEEE Spectrum (2008)

26. Balancing Considerations (I)
Determinism
For Social lag, Political impacts
of printing press,
Reproductive impacts of
reduced infant mortality,
Matches between
technological and social
enlightenment/growth/chang
e
Against Inequality of
technological access (eg food
manufacturing and
distribution, health care),
Advanced tech + repressive
laws (Singapore, China, Soviet
Union), Technology vs
Happiness (National
Happiness Index), Pinker’s
theories of the ‘long peace’
(nuclear, Kantian, democratic,
liberal, trade-based), Progress
traps (eg. environment)

27. Balancing Considerations (II)
Inevitablism
For Smooth development of
information technologies over
time, Simultaneous scientific
and engineering
developments across the
globe, Technological cultural
Darwinism (cultures survive
according to their capacity to
nurture technology)
Against Technological
regressions in particular
cultures (Japan, tribal
developmental regressions,
Amish), Scientific regressions
(eg Dark Ages), Contemporary
anti-technological
movements, Resource
constraints, Human ingenuity
constraints

28. ...work to be done.
For current purposes, moderate determinism and inevitablism provide an
interesting position for further consideration -> high leveraging of outcomes.
In what follows, I will refer to this position as ‘techno-moderate’. This has
also been called the SST or “Social Shaping of Technology” perspective.
(MacKenzie & Wajcman 1999)
False Dichotomies?

29. Levers for Human Progress
Contingentism
Inevitablism
Strong social
determinism
Social Levers
Social Levers, (accelerators,
breaks)
Strong
technodeterminism
Technological Levers
No strong levers (breaks,
accelerators)

30. Levers for Human Progress
Technological attitudes
Techno-optimist: Technology ultimately helps optimise human
flourishing Also: technoprogressive
Techno-pessimist: Technology ultimately hinders human flourishing Also:
bioconservative
Techno-ambivalentist: Technology may ultimately help or hinder
(subtypes still apply: determinist, non-determinist)

31. Levers for Human Progress
Technodeterminism or socialdeterminism (by degree)
Technoinevitablism or technocontingentism (by degree)
Technooptimism or techopessimism
=> Leveraging strategy
* These positions may be generalised or particularised, and focussed around
technologies or human welfare issues.

32. Deterministic
Levers
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Social levers
NA (but frequently allied with
rationalism)
NA (but frequently allied with
traditionalism)
Sociotechnological
levers (leveraging
impact)
Promotion of technology
through public education,
campaigns, tax breaks for
technological upgrades,
infrastructural improvements
(e.g. NBN), phasing out of old
infrastructure
Tendency toward prohibitions
and legal limitations against
uses of technology

33. Deterministic
Levers
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Politicotechnological
levers (leveraging
development)
Tax incentives for research,
Government research,
investment in education
Tax burdens for research,
prohibitions against research,
removal of government funding
for research, removal of funding
or promotion for scientific,
technical, or even rationalistic
education
Direct technological
levers
Basic and applied research and
development. Development of
tools for further development:
seed AI, ICT infrastructure,
financial instruments, linked
data, rapid gene sequencing.
Technocratic governance(?)
Interference with scientific and
political development,
destruction of infrastructure,
abandonment of technology ,
Use of one technology to
mitigate, retard or destroy
another

34. Strategy: Case Studies
(Descriptions of strategies as techno-optimistic and techo-pessimistic may be arguable from case to case.)

35. Strong Artificial
Intelligence
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Social levers
Popularisation of friendly AI
concepts? Debunking of
technological prejudices
Reinforcement of
technological prejudices. Antitechnology political
movements. Cultural
conservativism.
Sociotechnological
levers (leveraging
impact)
Laws limiting or shaping usage
of AI
Laws prohibiting usage of AI

36. Strong Artificial
Intelligence
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Politicotechnological
levers (leveraging
development)
Laws governing design and
function of AI. Restrictions on
bodies allowed to engage in AI
research. Investment in research
by potential benevolent first
movers.
Laws prohibiting development
of AIs. Research directed at
preventing AI development.
Direct technological
levers
Friendly AI research
Destruction of AI technology
and research. Anti-AIs.

37. Climate Change
Mitigation
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Social levers
Bright Green
Environmentalism.
Deep Ecology
environmentalism, Green
anarchism
Sociotechnological
levers (leveraging
impact)
Policies and programs
designed to incentivise
reduced resource
consumption without
reduction in economic activity.
Policies and programs
designed to incentivise
reduced economic
participation, developmental
rollback.

38. Climate Change
Mitigation
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Politicotechnological
levers (leveraging
development)
Investment in renewable
energies.
Economic rollback policies.
Direct technological
levers
Development of mitigation
technologies: Carbon capture,
artificial leaves, geoengineering,
terraforming, renewable or
near-renewable energy systems.
Rollback of industrialised
economies, survivalist
techniques and technologies

39. Nuclear threat
mitigation
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Social levers
Disarmament movements
Armament movements
Sociotechnological
levers (leveraging
impact)
Policies encouraging
cosmopolitanism,
internationalism?
Policies encouraging
population dispersal?

40. Nuclear threat
mitigation
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Politicotechnological
levers (leveraging
development)
Denuclearisation doctrines.
MAD Strategies, including
assured second strike
capabilities (e.g. nuclear
submarines)
Nuclearisation - strategies for
victorious nuclear war
Direct technological
levers
Development of nuclear
weapons defence systems.
Advanced nuclear reactors (eg.
pebble-bed). Development of
more advanced and potent
nuclear weapons (nuclear peace
theory). Simulation-based
development.
Sabotage of nuclear
technologies and installations.
Warhead destruction. Mass
destruction aimed at economic
rollback.

41. Poverty MRE
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Social levers
Effective Altruism
movements, NGOs, Effective
and boosted foreign aid
movements, Human rights
campaigns, Sustainability
campaigns
Recourse to existing customs
and traditions, Appeal to
religious frameworks (e.g.
prayer), Cultural relativism,
National isolationism,
Economic Darwinism,
Fatalism, Scapegoating
Sociotechnological
levers (leveraging
impact)
Geopolitical interventions,
institutional development,
Supranational economic and
political institutions
Government policies geared
toward resource conflict,
Militarism, Regressive
economics

42. Poverty MRE
Optimistic
technodeterminism
(working with
technology)
Pessimistic
technodeterminism
(working against
technology)
Politicotechnological
levers (leveraging
development)
Political agitation for massive
foreign aid boosts, Policies
geared toward development of
sustainable technologies, broad
infrastructural development,
Microfinance technologies etc
Policies geared toward
deindustrialisation (facilitating
renewal of natural resources,
decontamination, pollution
reduction), Depopulating
policies (reduction in
competition for natural
resources)
Direct technological
levers
Development: technologies for
intensive and sustainable
agriculture, affordable vaccines,
medicines, water filtration,
sanitation, communications etc.
Systems for low-friction giving,
impact tracking
Emphasis upon non-industrial
techniques for social
organisation and wellbeing
(subsistence agriculture,
farming, traditional lifestyles),
Social isolationism
(epidemiological quarantine)

43. Ende...
andrew.dun@gmail.com