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- 1. Scholarly Publishing 25 Years From Now Chris Pooley Senior Vice President, Thomson Scientific May 29, 2003
- 2. The Future of the Information Industry “One can always speculate about the future. If you are wrong, who will remember? If you are right, you can always remind the historians how astute you were.” - Dr. Eugene Garfield 1978
- 3. Looking ahead 25 years • Sometimes using the past can be an excellent metric for creating a vision of the future. What was happening back in 1978? • Let’s go back and take a quick look at 1978 and see what was happening in the world and in our industry
- 4. 1978 -- A few facts • Jimmy Carter is president • Sony introduces the Walkman • Jim Jones and followers drink Kool-aid • The US Senate votes to turn over the Panama Canal to Panama by 2000 • Pope Paul VI dies and Pope John Paul I dies after only 34 days in office. John Paul II follows
- 5. 1978 -- A few facts •Annie Hall wins best picture Academy Award • Hotel California is Record of the Year • Dallas wins the Super Bowl over Denver • Affirmed wins the Kentucky Derby • Louise Brown, the 1st test tube baby is born • Fred Astaire wins an Emmy Award • All in the Family is a television hit
- 6. 1978 What did our industry look like? • Print and a few online services compose the Information Industry • Dialog celebrates its 14 th year as part of Lockheed Martin • SDC also celebrates the 10 th anniversary of the ORBIT Online Service • CAS Online operational for 2 years
- 7. 1978 What did our industry look like? • OCLC launches interlibrary loan service • ISI covers 5,200 journals vs. over 8,500 today and starts expansion into social sciences • The British Post Office launches a project called Viewdata linking home televisions and telephones for research
- 8. 1978 – 2003 What Happened? 1978 1981 1984 1985 1986 1992 IBM PC CD-ROM SilverPlatte ISO 9660 1st WWW Launched Introduce r Launches CD-ROM sites start to d Standard appear IAC End-user sells searching COM starts to reader take off
- 9. 1978 – 2003 What Happened? 1993 1994 1996 1999 2000 2002 Mosaic Netscape Microsoft Al Gore Internet Dot.bomb browser browser launches invents the bubble is out, introduce launched IE Internet starts to profits & d burst cash flow are in
- 10. 1978 – Major Challenges in Publishing From the Customer Point of View • Consolidation worries • Costs, pricing, and licensing • No standard searching syntax • More content online • Shelf space in libraries • Managing the same content in multiple formats • Timeliness
- 11. 1978 – Major Challenges in Publishing From the Publisher Point of View • Scale is a way to gain leverage/reduce cost • Focus on production improvements to improve timeliness and reduce cost • Online services make it more difficult to make editorial changes
- 12. 1978 – 2003 How did we do? Let’s take a quick look at each of these challenges to see how successfully they were addressed
- 13. 2003 – Major Challenges in Publishing From the Customer Point of View • Consolidation worries • Costs, pricing, and licensing • No standard searching syntax • More content online • Shelf space in libraries • Managing the same content in multiple formats • Timeliness
- 14. 2003 – Major Challenges in Publishing From the Publisher Point of View • Scale is a way to gain leverage/reduce cost • Focus on production improvements to improve timeliness and reduce cost • Online services make it more difficult to make editorial changes
- 15. 2028 – What Can We Expect? Based upon all of the changes in the industry since 1978, and all of our concerns, what does the future look like?
- 16. 2028 – What Can We Expect? From the Customer Point of View • 24x7 access to personalized content collection • DRM technology that enables end-users to find information, read it, print it, and travel with it easily while honoring copyright • Information overload will be managed by customized filters that direct crawlers that produce smaller/better result lists
- 17. 2028 – What Can We Expect? From the Customer Point of View • Data sources will become less important to end-users who will not be as brand aware • Paper or print is an end-user option only • Search engines will improve yet, users will lean towards click & read vs. complex search syntax
- 18. 2028 – What Can We Expect? From the Publisher Point of View • All journals are delivered electronically • Proliferation of journals and low barriers to entry for electronic products increase the number of journals placing a premium on peer review • Secondary databases continue to provide value to users swamped with too many data sources • Searching focuses on the end-user
- 19. 2028 – What Can We Expect? Where will technology lead us? • The next break through technology will be… • Internet and wireless communications will evolve and continue to improve • Convergence of devices for cell phone, PDA, laptop, desktop, and entertainment devices (DVD, television, VCR, digital cameras)
- 20. 20
Notas del editor
- Good morning. It is a privilege to be at the 25 th annual SSP meeting. As you can see from the program, I am filling in for Mike Tansey, CEO of TS In 1985 I joined SilverPlatter as the 3rd employee in the US and served in a number of senior roles developing SP into a $40+ million business At ProCD we purchased all of the telephone books in the country, sent to China, keyed in and built one of the 1st national telephone directories CD, Internet CEO of Books24x7 an aggregator of computer trade books provided as a subscription Now SVP with Thomson Scientific working on business development, strategic partnerships, and acquisitions
- At a number of points in my career I have been blessed with the opportunity to work with some of the great visionaries in the world of electronic publishing. Dr. Eugene Garfield, the founder of ISI is definitely one of them so I thought it would be appropriate to borrow a quote from one of Dr. GARFIELD articles, “The Future of the Information Industry. Current contents 1/30/78 So as I begin this morning I would like to thank Dr. Garfield for taking some of the pressure off.
- Before looking ahead into the future 25 years from now, it is probbly a good idea to take a look back 25 years ago to see what was happening in the information industry and scholarly publishing. What were the major issues facing us 25 years ago? Who were the major players? How have we addressed these concerns over the past 25 years and what does the past tell us about the future?
- First a little fun. The introductory film provided some insight into 1978. here are a few other tidbits that I managed to dig up with a few clicks on my web browser. Jimmy Carter was president, we were looking at gas shortages and long lines as well as interest rates that were staggering in contrast to today Walkman was one of the great consumer success stories that really launched Sony forward as a leader in personal electronic products 1st time 3 Popes were in office in 1 year
- Some think that THE DEER HUNTER or that classic comedy ANIMAL HOUSE should have won By the Eagles yet, Rumors by Fleetwood Mac is Album of the year Affirmed was the last triple crown winner. That could change this weekend Fred Astaire “A Family Upside down It is amazing what you can learn while browsing. What about our industry?
- Dialog part of internal Lockheed and NASA project for many years before Roger Summit persuades management to launch a commercial service COMMERCIAL LAUNCH 72 Dialog had 50-60 databases (Biblio) Agicola with 86k records. APTIC, 79,000 records BIOSIS, almost 2 million records CA Search, 2.5 million records CLAIMS, 550,000 records Compendex, 700,000 records Disclosure, 11,000 records ERIC 320,000 records INSPEC, 1.2 million records NTIS, 700,000 Psych Abstracts, 260,000 PTS PROMT, 190,000
- For science the basic instrument of communication was the scientific paper. The Viewdata project was supposed to link over 1M houses in the UK in 10 years to provide access to billions of pgs Dr. Garfield mentioned this in 1 of his papers as a technology to watch Some viewed online databases as a major threat to the future of libraries
- IAC leveraged a new technology, COM Readers to go after what looked like an unassailable market position held by the H.W. Wilson Company with the Readers Guide to Periodical Literature The acceptance (finally) of CD-ROM standards paved the way for the growth of end-user searching. Much of the power of online searching was now available at a more affordable fixed price subscription (NETWORKS) 1958 Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) created by Department of Defense (DoD). The Internet has been around for 20 years and practically no one even knows!
- CD-ROM’s proliferate. Libraries want standards for user interfaces and for the hardware. Networks emerge to expand CD access "During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet" Gore said when asked to cite accomplishments that separate him from another Democratic presidential hopeful, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, during an interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN on March 9, 1999. As you all know, the crash of the dot.com’s was massive and not even the library market escaped unscathed.
- PRICING - Concerns about journal costs and transactional pricing for online services ONLINE - Wanted more content yet the different syntax and complex file structures/inconsistencies made online hard to use. SHELF SPACE - Librarians were looking at growing collections of print and faced the challenge of managing an archive to KNOW the collection will always be available MULTIPLE FORMATS - This got more difficult with the addition of CD’s to print and microfilm. Now a digital archive is
- Reducing costs meant that consolidation and cost control had to happen Changing file structures in the online world was costly and made it harder to use backfile data. The Web made this a bit easier although there are still some major issues with backfiles for files that were changed/enhanced.
- I don’t want to provide a report card on each concern. Let’s take a quick look at each one to see if it is still a concern or if we have been able to resolve it.
- Consolidation -- Looks like it happened yet there are still small independent publishers (tools HighWire PRICE - Don’t want to go there, always a concern for our customers, some new packaging, and per article Standard syntax - Cure was the brower Online content -- the great heyday of new
- Gaining scale and cost effiencies is the trade off for consolidation File changes haven’t gotten easier but new publishing platforms making Internet delivery easier make more content available
- The end-user in 25 years will be our teenage children who currently have 10-12 Instant Messaging conversations going simultaneously
- The end-user in 25 years will be our teenage children who currently have 10-12 Instant Messaging conversations going simultaneously are used to downloading music files from Napster or Kaza without much(Any?) regard for copyright. What they want they want electronicially, they want it now
- This new generation of end-users will care less about where they got a nugget of information and more about how quickly they found it. Branding will be more difficult. We are starting to see this now with corporate end-users Our next generation will handle the info overload with customized filters Paper will represent a huge cost to the publisher so it will be an option to the user who will use their own device
- All-electronic shouldn’t be a surprise. The trend is moving this way now That will help create more journals Searching and retrieval will focus on end-users as it becomes to expensive to develop & maintain sophisticated retrieval services for small user pops. Point & click is here to stay (90% use 1-2 word searches)
- Very difficult to predict the next breakthrough technology. The PC, CD-ROM and Internet are tough acts to follow and represent the core technolgies for future growth. There will be breakthroughs E-INK at MIT One major question is whether scholarly publishing will continue. The answer in my opinion is a resounding yes! Quality content will command a premium today, tomorrow & in 25 years. In the field of science the peer reviewed journal article remains as the key method for interaction between scientists.