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Some Hints for Preparing for the
    Math 533 Final Exam
        Professor Brent Heard
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Hypothesis Tests
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Sample Question on Hypothesis Testing
  – Pepito’s Pizza Work is putting pizzas out by delivery as fast as they
    can. Pepito’s claims they can deliver pizzas within their delivery area
    in less than 29 minutes. You are given the following data from a
    sample.
    Sample size: 120 Deliveries
    Population standard deviation: 1.4
    Sample mean: 28.3
    Formulate a hypothesis test to evaluate the claim.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Sample Question on Hypothesis Testing
  – Pepito’s Pizza Work is putting pizzas out by delivery as fast as they
    can. Pepito’s claims they can deliver pizzas within their delivery area
    in less than 29 minutes. You are given the following data from a
    sample.
    Sample size: 120 Deliveries
    Population standard deviation: 1.4
    Sample mean: 28.3
    Formulate a hypothesis test to evaluate the claim.

  –   Answer: Ho: µ ≥ 29, Ha : µ < 29
  –   (In this case, the claim was Ha)
  –   Remember Ho always contains equality (It will either be =, ≤ or ≥)
  –   Ha will be either ≠, < or >
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
•   Sample Question on Binomial Distribution
     – Assume that a study was done finding that 70 percent of males in Georgia are
       football fans. If a researcher asks 8 Georgia Males if they are fans, the
       following binomial distribution would be applicable. What is the probability
       that at least 5 will be football fans?


                                    n           p
                                    8          0.7

                            x      P( x)    Cumulative
                            0     0.0001      0.0001
                            1     0.0012      0.0013
                            2     0.0100      0.0113
                            3     0.0467      0.0580
                            4     0.1361      0.1941
                            5     0.2541      0.4482
                            6     0.2965      0.7447
                            7     0.1977      0.9424
                            8     0.0576      1.0000
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
•   Sample Question on Binomial Distribution
     – Assume that a study was done finding that 70 percent of males in Georgia are
       football fans. If a researcher asks 8 Georgia Males if they are fans, the
       following binomial distribution would be applicable. What is the probability
       that at least 5 will be football fans?


             n           p               “At least 5” is the probability that 5, 6,
             8          0.7
                                         7 or 8 will be fans. Simply add those
     x      P( x)    Cumulative          probabilities.
     0     0.0001      0.0001
     1     0.0012      0.0013                    0.2541
     2     0.0100      0.0113                    0.2965
     3     0.0467      0.0580                    0.1977
     4     0.1361      0.1941                    0.0576             My total is 0.8059
     5     0.2541      0.4482                                       or about 81% which
     6     0.2965      0.7447                                       is the probability of
     7     0.1977      0.9424                    0.8059
                                                                    at least 5 being
     8     0.0576      1.0000
                                                                    football fans.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
•    Analysis Example
      – 9 members of the local college baseball team had the following number for extra base hits for
        the year. Using the Minitab output given, determine:
A.   Mean
B.   Standard Deviation
C.   Range
D.   Median
E.   The range of the data that would contain 68% of the results .

Raw Data
7
9
4
24
15
17
15
6
29
      – Minitab Follows
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
Descriptive Statistics: Extra Base Hits

Variable     N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median      Q3
Extra Base Hits 9 0 14.00 2.82 8.47 4.00 6.50 15.00 20.50

Variable     Maximum
Extra Base Hits 29.00

Stem-and-Leaf Display: Extra Base Hits

Stem-and-leaf of Extra Base Hits N = 9
Leaf Unit = 1.0

                                          The range of the data that would contain 68%
 4 0 4679                                      of the results. (Mean – Std Dev, Mean +
(3) 1 557                                      Std Dev) which is (14 – 8.47, 14 + 8.47) or
 2 2 49
                                               (5.53,22.47)
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Confidence interval Example
  – Acme computers needs to find a new vendor for
    their hard drives. They are considering using
    Howie’s Hard Drives as a vendor. Acme’s
    requirement is that 95% of the hard drives last
    24000 hours ± 2000 hours. The following data is
    from an independent source who evaluated
    Howie’s. Should Acme buy from Howie’s? Explain
    your answer. (Follows on next page)
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
•   Mean = 24500
•   Sample Standard Deviation 2250
•   Min 21402
•   Max 29463
•   Margin of Error 4500

• Answer Follows
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• No, Acme shouldn’t buy from Howie’s looking
  at their requirements (24000 – 2000, 24000 +
  2000) which is (22000, 26,000). Based on the
  results given, Howie’s would yield a tolerance
  of (24500 – 2*2250, 24500+2*2250) which is
  (20000, 29000). This does not meet Acme’s
  requirement. You could also see this by
  looking at the margin of error.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Example on Pivot/Contingency Tables
• The table below gives the number of cars of
  various colors and the state tag on the car for
  a parking lot in a mall close to DC.
                     VA   MD   DC Other State Total
             Blue     4    8    9     3        24
             Black    9    7   11     8        35
             White   12   14   21     15       62
             Other   37   10   29     35      111
             Total   62   39   70     61      232
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Based on the table, find the probability that a
  car is from VA or MD.
• Based on the table, given that a car is from
  DC, find the probability it is black.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep


        VA   MD        DC Other State Total   find the probability that a car is
Blue     4    8         9     3        24     from VA or MD. Add 62 + 39 to get
Black    9    7        11     8        35     So the answer would be 91/232 or it’s
White   12   14        21     15       62     decimal form.
Other   37   10        29     35      111
Total   62   39        70     61      232
        62 + 39 = 91
Math 533 Final Exam Prep


        VA   MD   DC Other State Total
                                         Given that a car is from DC, find
Blue     4    8    9     3        24
                                         the probability it is black.
Black    9    7   11     8        35
                                         Given that it is from DC means we are only
White   12   14   21     15       62
                                         dealing with the 70 cars from DC.
Other   37   10   29     35      111     There are 11 of those that are black, so the
Total   62   39   70     61      232     probability is 11/70
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Normal Distribution Example
  – The number of students who use the dining hall at
    an urban college on a given day is normally
    distributed with a mean of 1578 students and a
    standard deviation of 274 students.

  – Use Minitab for these and shouldn’t have any
    issues.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Another Confidence Interval Example
   – I randomly sampled 18 engineers where I work and asked
     them how many projects they have worked on in the last
     five years. The sample mean was 21, with a standard
     deviation of 5. What is the mean number of projects of all
     engineers at my research center? Why? What is the 95%
     confidence interval for the population mean? You are
     given the information below from Minitab.

One-Sample T
N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI
18 21.00 5.00 1.18  (18.51, 23.49)
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Another Confidence Interval Example
   – I randomly sampled 18 engineers where I work and asked them
     how many projects they have worked on in the last five years.
     The sample mean was 21, with a standard deviation of 5. What
     is the mean number of projects of all engineers at my research
     center? Why? What is the 95% confidence interval for the
     population mean? You are given the information below from
     Minitab.

Answer:
21 projects would be the best estimate for the mean. I
  would expect 95% of the population mean to fall between
  18.51 and 23.49 projects. The t is used because of the
  sample size.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
• Regression Example
  – I did an analysis to determine if the number of
    hours studied for a final exam related to the Final
    Exam grade for students. On the sheets that
    follow you will see what my Minitab results were.
General Regression Analysis: Final Grade versus Hours of Analysis of Variance
Study
                                                         Source       DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS    F     P
Regression Equation                                      Regression     1 8090.71 8090.71 8090.71 171.274
                                                         0.000000
Final Grade = 34.2845 + 1.45508 Hours of Study            Hours of Study 1 8090.71 8090.71 8090.71 171.274
                                                         0.000000
                                                         Error       22 1039.25 1039.25 47.24
Coefficients                                              Lack-of-Fit 18 936.58 936.58 52.03 2.027 0.259215
                                                          Pure Error   4 102.67 102.67 25.67
Term         Coef SE Coef   T P                          Total       23 9129.96
Constant     34.2845 3.38091 10.1406 0.000
Hours of Study 1.4551 0.11118 13.0872 0.000
                                                         Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations
Summary of Model                                           Final
                                                         Obs Grade Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid
S = 6.87303 R-Sq = 88.62%       R-Sq(adj) = 88.10%       24 19 37.1947 3.17993 -18.1947 -2.98609 R
PRESS = 1426.21 R-Sq(pred) = 84.38%
                                                         R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep

Predicted Values for New Observations

New Obs Fit SE Fit    95% CI        95% PI
  1 48.8353 2.41382 (43.8294, 53.8413) (33.7280, 63.9426)


Values of Predictors for New Observations

    Hours
     of
New Obs Study
  1 10
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
I did an analysis to determine if the number of hours studied for a final exam related to the
    Final Exam grade for students. On the sheets that follow you will see what my Minitab
    results were.
Answer the following questions.

Determine the regression equation.

What conclusions are possible using the meaning of bo (intercept) and b1 (regression coefficient) in this problem?

What does the coefficient of determination (r-squared) mean?


Calculate the coefficient of correlation and explain what it means.

Does this data provide significant evidence (a=0.05) that the final exam grade is associated with the hours
   studied? Find the p-value and interpret.

Determine the predicted grade for someone who spends 10 hours studying for the final exam.

What is the 95% confidence interval for the score for spending 10 hours studying on the test? What conclusion is
   possible using this interval?
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
I did an analysis to determine if the number of hours studied for a
   final exam related to the Final Exam grade for students. On the
   sheets that follow you will see what my Minitab results were.
Answer the following questions.

Determine the regression equation. y= 34.2845 + 1.45508x


What conclusions are possible using the meaning of b o (intercept) and b1
  (regression coefficient) in this problem? For each hour of study the final grade
  is increased by about 1.5 points (1.45508). bo represents the y intercept or
   34.2845 in our case. It is the score that a student could expect to get without
   studying.

What does the coefficient of determination (r-squared) mean? The .886 means
  that 88.6 percent of the variability of the final grade can be explained by the
  number of study hours. The other 11.4% would be due to something else or
  be unexplained.
Math 533 Final Exam Prep
Calculate the coefficient of correlation and explain what it means. Square Root of
(0.886) is 0.942 which is r, the correlation coefficient. With a value this close to
one, we could say there is strong positive correlation.

Does this data provide significant evidence (a=0.05) that the final exam grade is
associated with the hours studied? Find the p-value and interpret. Yes, the p value
was 0. If it were above 0.05, I would have said “no.”

Determine the predicted grade for someone who spends 10 hours studying for
the final exam. 48.8353

What is the 95% confidence interval for the score for spending 10 hours studying
on the test? What conclusion is possible using this interval? (43.8294, 53.8413)
We would be 95% confident that if someone studied for 10 hours they would
score on average between those two values.

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Math533 finalexamreviewfeb13

  • 1. Some Hints for Preparing for the Math 533 Final Exam Professor Brent Heard
  • 2. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Hypothesis Tests
  • 3. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Sample Question on Hypothesis Testing – Pepito’s Pizza Work is putting pizzas out by delivery as fast as they can. Pepito’s claims they can deliver pizzas within their delivery area in less than 29 minutes. You are given the following data from a sample. Sample size: 120 Deliveries Population standard deviation: 1.4 Sample mean: 28.3 Formulate a hypothesis test to evaluate the claim.
  • 4. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Sample Question on Hypothesis Testing – Pepito’s Pizza Work is putting pizzas out by delivery as fast as they can. Pepito’s claims they can deliver pizzas within their delivery area in less than 29 minutes. You are given the following data from a sample. Sample size: 120 Deliveries Population standard deviation: 1.4 Sample mean: 28.3 Formulate a hypothesis test to evaluate the claim. – Answer: Ho: µ ≥ 29, Ha : µ < 29 – (In this case, the claim was Ha) – Remember Ho always contains equality (It will either be =, ≤ or ≥) – Ha will be either ≠, < or >
  • 5. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Sample Question on Binomial Distribution – Assume that a study was done finding that 70 percent of males in Georgia are football fans. If a researcher asks 8 Georgia Males if they are fans, the following binomial distribution would be applicable. What is the probability that at least 5 will be football fans? n p 8 0.7 x P( x) Cumulative 0 0.0001 0.0001 1 0.0012 0.0013 2 0.0100 0.0113 3 0.0467 0.0580 4 0.1361 0.1941 5 0.2541 0.4482 6 0.2965 0.7447 7 0.1977 0.9424 8 0.0576 1.0000
  • 6. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Sample Question on Binomial Distribution – Assume that a study was done finding that 70 percent of males in Georgia are football fans. If a researcher asks 8 Georgia Males if they are fans, the following binomial distribution would be applicable. What is the probability that at least 5 will be football fans? n p “At least 5” is the probability that 5, 6, 8 0.7 7 or 8 will be fans. Simply add those x P( x) Cumulative probabilities. 0 0.0001 0.0001 1 0.0012 0.0013 0.2541 2 0.0100 0.0113 0.2965 3 0.0467 0.0580 0.1977 4 0.1361 0.1941 0.0576 My total is 0.8059 5 0.2541 0.4482 or about 81% which 6 0.2965 0.7447 is the probability of 7 0.1977 0.9424 0.8059 at least 5 being 8 0.0576 1.0000 football fans.
  • 7. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Analysis Example – 9 members of the local college baseball team had the following number for extra base hits for the year. Using the Minitab output given, determine: A. Mean B. Standard Deviation C. Range D. Median E. The range of the data that would contain 68% of the results . Raw Data 7 9 4 24 15 17 15 6 29 – Minitab Follows
  • 8. Math 533 Final Exam Prep Descriptive Statistics: Extra Base Hits Variable N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Extra Base Hits 9 0 14.00 2.82 8.47 4.00 6.50 15.00 20.50 Variable Maximum Extra Base Hits 29.00 Stem-and-Leaf Display: Extra Base Hits Stem-and-leaf of Extra Base Hits N = 9 Leaf Unit = 1.0 The range of the data that would contain 68% 4 0 4679 of the results. (Mean – Std Dev, Mean + (3) 1 557 Std Dev) which is (14 – 8.47, 14 + 8.47) or 2 2 49 (5.53,22.47)
  • 9. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Confidence interval Example – Acme computers needs to find a new vendor for their hard drives. They are considering using Howie’s Hard Drives as a vendor. Acme’s requirement is that 95% of the hard drives last 24000 hours ± 2000 hours. The following data is from an independent source who evaluated Howie’s. Should Acme buy from Howie’s? Explain your answer. (Follows on next page)
  • 10. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Mean = 24500 • Sample Standard Deviation 2250 • Min 21402 • Max 29463 • Margin of Error 4500 • Answer Follows
  • 11. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • No, Acme shouldn’t buy from Howie’s looking at their requirements (24000 – 2000, 24000 + 2000) which is (22000, 26,000). Based on the results given, Howie’s would yield a tolerance of (24500 – 2*2250, 24500+2*2250) which is (20000, 29000). This does not meet Acme’s requirement. You could also see this by looking at the margin of error.
  • 12. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Example on Pivot/Contingency Tables • The table below gives the number of cars of various colors and the state tag on the car for a parking lot in a mall close to DC.   VA MD DC Other State Total Blue 4 8 9 3 24 Black 9 7 11 8 35 White 12 14 21 15 62 Other 37 10 29 35 111 Total 62 39 70 61 232
  • 13. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Based on the table, find the probability that a car is from VA or MD. • Based on the table, given that a car is from DC, find the probability it is black.
  • 14. Math 533 Final Exam Prep   VA MD DC Other State Total find the probability that a car is Blue 4 8 9 3 24 from VA or MD. Add 62 + 39 to get Black 9 7 11 8 35 So the answer would be 91/232 or it’s White 12 14 21 15 62 decimal form. Other 37 10 29 35 111 Total 62 39 70 61 232 62 + 39 = 91
  • 15. Math 533 Final Exam Prep   VA MD DC Other State Total Given that a car is from DC, find Blue 4 8 9 3 24 the probability it is black. Black 9 7 11 8 35 Given that it is from DC means we are only White 12 14 21 15 62 dealing with the 70 cars from DC. Other 37 10 29 35 111 There are 11 of those that are black, so the Total 62 39 70 61 232 probability is 11/70
  • 16. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Normal Distribution Example – The number of students who use the dining hall at an urban college on a given day is normally distributed with a mean of 1578 students and a standard deviation of 274 students. – Use Minitab for these and shouldn’t have any issues.
  • 17. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Another Confidence Interval Example – I randomly sampled 18 engineers where I work and asked them how many projects they have worked on in the last five years. The sample mean was 21, with a standard deviation of 5. What is the mean number of projects of all engineers at my research center? Why? What is the 95% confidence interval for the population mean? You are given the information below from Minitab. One-Sample T N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI 18 21.00 5.00 1.18 (18.51, 23.49)
  • 18. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Another Confidence Interval Example – I randomly sampled 18 engineers where I work and asked them how many projects they have worked on in the last five years. The sample mean was 21, with a standard deviation of 5. What is the mean number of projects of all engineers at my research center? Why? What is the 95% confidence interval for the population mean? You are given the information below from Minitab. Answer: 21 projects would be the best estimate for the mean. I would expect 95% of the population mean to fall between 18.51 and 23.49 projects. The t is used because of the sample size.
  • 19. Math 533 Final Exam Prep • Regression Example – I did an analysis to determine if the number of hours studied for a final exam related to the Final Exam grade for students. On the sheets that follow you will see what my Minitab results were.
  • 20. General Regression Analysis: Final Grade versus Hours of Analysis of Variance Study Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P Regression Equation Regression 1 8090.71 8090.71 8090.71 171.274 0.000000 Final Grade = 34.2845 + 1.45508 Hours of Study Hours of Study 1 8090.71 8090.71 8090.71 171.274 0.000000 Error 22 1039.25 1039.25 47.24 Coefficients Lack-of-Fit 18 936.58 936.58 52.03 2.027 0.259215 Pure Error 4 102.67 102.67 25.67 Term Coef SE Coef T P Total 23 9129.96 Constant 34.2845 3.38091 10.1406 0.000 Hours of Study 1.4551 0.11118 13.0872 0.000 Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations Summary of Model Final Obs Grade Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid S = 6.87303 R-Sq = 88.62% R-Sq(adj) = 88.10% 24 19 37.1947 3.17993 -18.1947 -2.98609 R PRESS = 1426.21 R-Sq(pred) = 84.38% R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
  • 21. Math 533 Final Exam Prep Predicted Values for New Observations New Obs Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI 1 48.8353 2.41382 (43.8294, 53.8413) (33.7280, 63.9426) Values of Predictors for New Observations Hours of New Obs Study 1 10
  • 22. Math 533 Final Exam Prep I did an analysis to determine if the number of hours studied for a final exam related to the Final Exam grade for students. On the sheets that follow you will see what my Minitab results were. Answer the following questions. Determine the regression equation. What conclusions are possible using the meaning of bo (intercept) and b1 (regression coefficient) in this problem? What does the coefficient of determination (r-squared) mean? Calculate the coefficient of correlation and explain what it means. Does this data provide significant evidence (a=0.05) that the final exam grade is associated with the hours studied? Find the p-value and interpret. Determine the predicted grade for someone who spends 10 hours studying for the final exam. What is the 95% confidence interval for the score for spending 10 hours studying on the test? What conclusion is possible using this interval?
  • 23. Math 533 Final Exam Prep I did an analysis to determine if the number of hours studied for a final exam related to the Final Exam grade for students. On the sheets that follow you will see what my Minitab results were. Answer the following questions. Determine the regression equation. y= 34.2845 + 1.45508x What conclusions are possible using the meaning of b o (intercept) and b1 (regression coefficient) in this problem? For each hour of study the final grade is increased by about 1.5 points (1.45508). bo represents the y intercept or 34.2845 in our case. It is the score that a student could expect to get without studying. What does the coefficient of determination (r-squared) mean? The .886 means that 88.6 percent of the variability of the final grade can be explained by the number of study hours. The other 11.4% would be due to something else or be unexplained.
  • 24. Math 533 Final Exam Prep Calculate the coefficient of correlation and explain what it means. Square Root of (0.886) is 0.942 which is r, the correlation coefficient. With a value this close to one, we could say there is strong positive correlation. Does this data provide significant evidence (a=0.05) that the final exam grade is associated with the hours studied? Find the p-value and interpret. Yes, the p value was 0. If it were above 0.05, I would have said “no.” Determine the predicted grade for someone who spends 10 hours studying for the final exam. 48.8353 What is the 95% confidence interval for the score for spending 10 hours studying on the test? What conclusion is possible using this interval? (43.8294, 53.8413) We would be 95% confident that if someone studied for 10 hours they would score on average between those two values.