The document discusses 3 retail stocks - Best Buy, Staples, and GameStop - that could make large stock price moves. Investors are negative on all 3 due to the belief that online shopping will continue taking business from brick-and-mortar stores. Key things to watch for Best Buy and Staples include guidance for the rest of the year and details on new strategies to reinvent themselves. For GameStop, analysts will watch for earnings news from video game makers and performance of GameStop's other subsidiaries beyond its core business.
3. Why Are Investors So Negative?
1. During the holiday quarter, same store sales
were negative, and results came in below
expectations.
2. More broadly, many believe brick-and-mortar
retailers, especially in electronic goods, will
lose business to customers simply ordering
products on-line.
4. Here’s What to Really Watch
Wall Street Expectations
1. Currently, 11% of
available shares are
being shorted
2. Analysts estimate
revenue will come in at
$9.2 billion.
3. Analysts estimate that
earnings per share will
come in at $0.20
What to really watch
Guidance for the rest of the
year will be critically
important.
Usually, the 4th quarter
(holidays) represents more
40% of the company’s
revenue.
Analysts estimate 2014
revenue of $42.2 billion and
EPS of $2.20
6. Why Are Investors So Negative?
1. Much like Best Buy, many believe that people
will—more and more—order their office
supplies on-line and have them delivered to
their place of work.
2. Though the company has a very successful e-
commerce segment, its growth has slowed,
and can’t make up for declining in-store sales.
7. Here’s What to Really Watch
Wall Street Expectations
1. Currently, 14% of
available shares are
being shorted.
2. Analysts estimate the
company will report
revenue of $5.6 billion.
3. Analysts estimate
earnings per share will
come in at $0.21
What to Really Watch
Listen for details of the
company’s ―Make More
Happen‖ strategy
– Staples is trying to
reinvent itself as the go-to
place for all company
needs.
– This goes far beyond
paper and notebooks, and
includes things like
stethoscopes and muffin-
tins
9. Why Are Investors So Negative?
1. By now you may be noticing a trend, as
investors are worried that GameStop’s brick-
and-mortar model is becoming obsolete when
games and consoles can be purchased on-
line—and many games are moving to the
Internet as well.
2. There are no big releases of new gaming
consoles on the immediate horizon
10. Here’s What to Really Watch
Wall Street Expectations
1. Currently, 42% of
available shares are
being shorted
2. Analysts expect
GameStop to report
revenue of $2.0 billion.
3. The company is
expected to report
earnings per share of
$0.57
What to Really Watch
1. Pay more attention to
earnings news from the
video-game makers,
and how much revenue
is now derived digitally.
2. Listen in to see if
GameStop’s other
subsidiaries—Cricket,
Spring Mobile, and
Simply Mac—are doing
as well as the company
hopes.
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