http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webinar/heat-pump-implementation-scenarios-until-2030 The webinar will present results of a study carried out by Ecofys for the European Heat Pump Association. The aim of the study was to quantify the potential of heat pumps to save CO2-eq emissions and energy and to increase the use of renewable energy in the EU’s building sector until 2030. The study assesses related impacts on investments and energy costs. The study gives an overview of eight European key markets (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom).

1. Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios
until 2030
Key Results & Methodology
Leonardo Energy Webinar, 17 April 2014
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser

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Key Research Question
How can heat pumps contribute to the
long-term EU energy and climate targets?
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar2

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Agenda
Part I - Overview
> Objective & Key Messages
Part II - Details
> Methodology
> Scenario Definitions
> Results
> Individual Building Level
> Scenarios
> Conclusion
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar3

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Part I
Overview

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Objective
> Scope
> Study for
> Scenarios for 8 countries
(AT, BE, FR, DE, IT, ES, SE, UK)
> Impact of increasing heat pump
implementations
> Scope of heating, hot water,
cooling, auxiliary energy
> 3 scenarios
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar5

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Objective
> Scenario Definition
> 3 scenarios
> All with (very) high energy efficiency standard related to the
building shell
> Differentiation of heating system mix
> Scenario “Current Policy Implementation - CPI”
with moderate increasing HP share
> Scenario “HP+”
with high HP shares (30%
4
for retrofits and 50%
4
for new
builds)
> Scenario “HP++”
with very high HP shares (50%
4
for retrofits and 100%
4
for new
builds)
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar6

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Key Message I
> GHG Emissions
Building sector
target corridor*
Total CO2 emissions
reduction by 46% in
the “HP++” scenario
2012-2030
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector:
CO2-emissions for the focus countries
Scenarios:
Heat pumps can play an essential
role in the future supply mix.
without any
heat pumps
CO2-eq emissions
from heat pump
F-gas leakages:
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar7

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Key Message II
> Final Energy
The overall final energy for space heating, hot water,
cooling and auxiliary purposes with increasing shares of
heat pumps can be reduced by 2030 (compared to 2012):
> by 19% in “CPI”,
> by 25% in “HP+” and
> by 31% in “HP++”.

9. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar9
Key Message III
> Costs
The total annual costs (annuities from investments and
energy costs) increase by 2030 related to “CPI”.
> by 0.7% in the
scenario “HP+” and
> by 2.7% in the
scenario “HP++”.

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RES-shares from heat pumps by 2020 can be higher than
required by the RES-Directive
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar10
Key Message IV
> RES shares

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Part II
Details

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Methodology
> The Ecofys BEAM² Model
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar12

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Methodology
> The Ecofys BEAM² Model
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar13
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
7
Calculation Steps BEAM²
(Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser)

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Methodology
> The Ecofys BEAM² Model
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar14
Schematic illustration of the scope for the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM²
(Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser, CEN/TR 15615)

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Scenario Definition
> Number of buildings in key markets
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar15
Number of buildings
Conditioned floor area per country and building type

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Scenario Definition
> Reference buildings
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar16
Residential Non-residential
Sweden, France, Italy
Germany, Spain,
Belgium, Austria, UK All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions
Single-family house
(detached)
Single-family house
(Row-end house)
Multi-family house Office Education Trade / retail Touristic Health
Floor area [m²] 110,7 120,0 335,0 1972,0 11725,0 620,0 1050,0 22.422,2
Ambient w all [m²] 152,0 130,0 270,0 1595,6 7597,0 510,6 1351,8 5184,3
North [m²] 40,0 0,0 15,0 576,0 1846,0 155,3 161,9 1501,8
East [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 234,1 1950,0 100,0 513,0 1086,7
South [m²] 40,0 70,0 15,0 597,6 1847,0 155,3 164,4 1444,4
West [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 187,9 1954,0 100,0 512,5 1151,4
Window s 26,6 24,4 96,1 611,0 2825,8 46,8 207,2 845,4
North [m²] 5,7 0,0 6,3 207,9 721,9 0,0 0,0 186,2
East [m²] 5,8 3,9 26,0 181,5 787,0 46,2 105,6 144,9
South [m²] 5,3 8,6 6,3 208,2 891,9 0,0 10,0 220,7
West [m²] 9,7 9,2 57,5 13,4 425,0 0,6 91,6 293,7
Roof w indow East [m²] 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Roof w indow West [m²] 0,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Ground plate [m²] cellar existent Cellar existent 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,1 Cellar existent
Cellar ceiling [m²] 99,2 85,5 no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar 3.739,1
Roof [m²] 77,0 52,3 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,0 3.739,1
East [m²] 38,5 26,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
West [m²] 38,5 25,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Story height [m²] 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 3,7 4,5 4,7 2.8 / 3.5 4,3
Building volume [m³] 465 (w ithout cellar) 517 (w ithout cellar) 1480,0 7473,7 53941,9 3100,0 6879,0 88.864,2
Ratio m² floor to cellar or ground 1,1 1,4 1,8 3,3 1,0 1,9 6,0
Source:
Klauß, Maas (2010)

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Scenario Definition
> Retrofits, new buildings and demolitions
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar17
Renovation, new construction and demolition rates

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Scenario Definition
> Shares of heat pumps
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar18

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Scenario Definition
> Definition of heat pump increase rates
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar19
Leverage factors for heat pump implementation in the “CPI” scenario
Illustration of “Implementations gained from competing
technologies” in the HP+ and HP++ scenarios

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Scenario Definition
> Heat pump market saturations
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar20
Market saturation curve (S-curve)

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Scenario Definition
> Heat pump implementations
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar21
Heat pump implementations per scenario
Relation of heat pump implementations per
scenario in 2020 related to 2012

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Results
> SPFs and CO2-emissions for individual buildings
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar22
SPF values for heat pumps in single-family
houses per country
Austria: CO2-emissions per year for heating
(floor heating system)

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Results
> GHG Emissions
Building sector
target corridor*
Total CO2 emissions
reduction by 46% in
the “HP++” scenario
2012-2030
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector:
CO2-emissions for the focus countries
Scenarios:
Heat pumps can play an essential
role in the future supply mix.
without any
heat pumps
CO2-eq emissions
from heat pump
F-gas leakages:
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar23

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Results
> Overview
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar24
Overview on main results per scenario

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Conclusion
High implementation of heat pumps can:
contribute significantly to the mitigation of CO2-
emissions, energy savings and to an increasing
share of renewable energies
be realized at moderate additional overall costs
be an important puzzle piece for reaching long term
targets (by 2050)
play an essential role in the future supply mix.
Additional policy actions for heat pumps are
required in the HP+ and HP++ scenario.
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar25

26. © ECOFYS | |
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser
T: +49 221 270 70 157
E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com
Ecofys Germany
Am Wassermann 36
50829 Cologne
Germany
www.ecofys.com
26 17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar26
Thank you!