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Germany’s New Labor Market Miracle Prof. Dr.   Klaus F. Zimmermann IZA, DIW Berlin und University of Bonn  Stockholm, Sweden March 24, 2009
Overview: The German Labor Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Unemployment in Germany (1960-2010) Source:  Federal Employment Agency ,[object Object],[object Object],Oil  crises German reunification Post-war  economic boom Dotcom bubble Hartz reforms
Evolution of the German Labor Force (1992-2007) Source:  GSOEP Decrease in the share of permanent full-time employment  Decrease in the share of inactive individuals  Growth of  flexible jobs
Unit Labor Costs Across Countries (1990-2008, 2000=100) Germany’s international competitiveness has increased substantially  ►relatively strong position  when crisis hit Germany Source:  OECD.
Germany‘s Reaction to Overcome the Crisis: Demystifying the New Labor Market Miracle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP and Employment Decline in OECD Countries Source:  OECD Main Economic Indicators, own calculations. GDP and employment decline since start of crisis (country-specific GDP-based turning points)
Different Labor Market Impacts of the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Share of Vulnerable Sectors in OECD Countries (2007)
Sectoral Employment Change in the EU (Q2 2008 – Q2 2009)
Automatic Stabilizers: Wide Differences Across the EU Stabilization of demand after a 5% income shock or 5 PP rise in unemployment Source:   Dolls et al. (2009)
Discretionary Expansion of ALMP Expenditures (2008-2010) Source:  OECD Employment Outlook 2009.
Specific German Feature:  Working Short-Time to Overcome the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stock of Short-time Workers in Germany (2007-2009) Source: Federal Employment Agency About 4% of all employees,  11% in manufacturing,  20% in car industry,  about 350.000 FTE  ( ~ 1PP unemployment rate)
Aggregate Working Hours in Germany (1998-2009)  Aggregate working hours (in billions per year) Source:  Arbeitskreis “Erwerbstätigenrechnung des Bundes und der Länder”. Internal flexibility  in the German labor market: less overtime, working time accounts, short-time work
Conclusions (1/3):  German Miracle not only Short-time Work ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions (2/3): Labor Market Institutions and Automatic Stabilizers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions (3/3): Short- and Long-Term Implications of the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Prof. Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann IZA, DIW Berlin und Universität Bonn IZA, P.O. Box 7240,  53072 Bonn, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 - 0 Fax: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 - 180 E-Mail:  [email_address] www.iza.org

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Klaus Zimmermann

  • 1. Germany’s New Labor Market Miracle Prof. Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann IZA, DIW Berlin und University of Bonn Stockholm, Sweden March 24, 2009
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Evolution of the German Labor Force (1992-2007) Source: GSOEP Decrease in the share of permanent full-time employment Decrease in the share of inactive individuals Growth of flexible jobs
  • 5. Unit Labor Costs Across Countries (1990-2008, 2000=100) Germany’s international competitiveness has increased substantially ►relatively strong position when crisis hit Germany Source: OECD.
  • 6.
  • 7. GDP and Employment Decline in OECD Countries Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators, own calculations. GDP and employment decline since start of crisis (country-specific GDP-based turning points)
  • 8.
  • 9. Share of Vulnerable Sectors in OECD Countries (2007)
  • 10. Sectoral Employment Change in the EU (Q2 2008 – Q2 2009)
  • 11. Automatic Stabilizers: Wide Differences Across the EU Stabilization of demand after a 5% income shock or 5 PP rise in unemployment Source: Dolls et al. (2009)
  • 12. Discretionary Expansion of ALMP Expenditures (2008-2010) Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2009.
  • 13.
  • 14. Stock of Short-time Workers in Germany (2007-2009) Source: Federal Employment Agency About 4% of all employees, 11% in manufacturing, 20% in car industry, about 350.000 FTE ( ~ 1PP unemployment rate)
  • 15. Aggregate Working Hours in Germany (1998-2009) Aggregate working hours (in billions per year) Source: Arbeitskreis “Erwerbstätigenrechnung des Bundes und der Länder”. Internal flexibility in the German labor market: less overtime, working time accounts, short-time work
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Prof. Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann IZA, DIW Berlin und Universität Bonn IZA, P.O. Box 7240, 53072 Bonn, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 - 0 Fax: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 - 180 E-Mail: [email_address] www.iza.org

Notas del editor

  1. 2005: erstmalige Erfassung von erwerbsfähigen früheren Sozialhilfeempfängern – statistischer Effekt – neue Ehrlichkeit/ vorher: Messung der AL nach dem Konzept der internationalen Arbeitsagentur (ILO) – wurde als Scheitern der Regieurungspolitik wahrgenommen 2006 verbesserte sich die Entwicklung auf dem AM deutlich (wegen Konjunktur aber vielmehr strukturelle Reformen in Sozialstaat und AMP