Future State Vision on Business and technology landscape

1. A Glimpse of the Future:
Technology Trends
Susheela Venkataraman
Internet Business Solutions Group
5 February 2011
1

2. Trend 1: Always-on Connectivity Will
Make the Internet Integral to People’s Lives
Today By 2018
 The world is more  World blanketed by
connected 125x faster connectivity
Online penetration:  Always-on, lifelike
Europe–43%, U.S.–71%, information on any
Asia–14% device, anywhere
33% of online
Europeans and 30% of  Billions of Internet
online North Americans devices will accomplish
have broadband mundane tasks in the
Mobile phone background, making
penetration: Europe– people’s lives easier
96%, U.S.–80%, and more productive
Asia–27%
Sources: IDC, 2006; OVUM, 2006; Pew Internet, 2008; Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

3. Trend 1: Examples
By 2013 By 2018
 Consumers will interact with wall-
 Table surfaces will be commonly
embedded screens for information,
used as Internet interfaces
advice, and transactions
 Consumers will scan bar codes
 Home / car access will work with
with mobile devices to receive
biometric “keys.” Homeowners can
product information and make
manage who has access
purchases
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

4. Trend 2: Intelligent Information Will Change
Consumer Behavior
Today By 2018
 Search engines  Searches will provide
provide 14.5 billion "perfect information"
searches per month due to the Semantic FIND W HAT YOU NEED.
worldwide Web and event
processing using
 53% of online
searches use Google metadata
 21% of U.S. online  Searches will return
personalized, "one-
users participate in
discussion boards, click" solutions
12% post ratings /  Wisdom of crowds and
reviews, 11% comment peer communication
on blogs, and 7% will have the greatest
publish their own blogs impact on customer
buying decisions
Sources: Comscore, 2008; Forrester Research, 2007; Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

5. Trend 2: Examples
By 2013 By 2018
 Consumers can receive personalized  On request, the Semantic Web will
recommendations and offers based organize a party by inviting people,
on previous purchases and items booking a venue, and arranging food
viewed
 A cancer patient will connect with
 Banks will offer cash flow optimization the best specialist, latest research,
accounts that make recommendations
to maximize financial results and support groups
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

6. Trend 3: Richer Interactions Will Engage
Customers in More Meaningful Ways
Today By 2018
 Virtual reality is a  People will interact
reality with companies with objects and
and consumers using machines using voice,
sites like Second Life gestures, and touch
 Massively multiplayer  Immersive interactions
game, World of enabled by Cisco
Warcraft, has 10 million TelePresence,
subscribers (5.5 million holographics, robotics,
in Asia) AI, haptics, virtual reality,
and other technologies
 Organizations such
will create rich
as IKEA, Sears, and
ABN Amro use virtual experiences
assistants to help  Avatars will routinely
customers carry out daily tasks
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

7. Trend 3: Examples
By 2013 By 2018
 High-definition home video-  Store robots will help find products,
conferencing with touch-to- give demos, and provide valet service
connect capabilities
 Avatars will book travel, schedule
 Voice, gesture, and touch deliveries, and pay bills
control of household equipment
such as TV, curtains and oven  Social networking will be real-time,
high-definition, and remote
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

8. Trend 4: Simple, Intuitive Devices Will Become
Main Way Consumers Interact
Today By 2018
 Mobile devices are  Customers will shift
rapidly becoming a seamlessly between
primary vehicle for devices and screens to
interactions with complete tasks
people and  Consistent interaction
information models will allow
 Adoption is increasing customers to use new
exponentially due to services effortlessly
increased capabilities,  Many devices will
improved services, and be wearable
lower costs
 Mobile computing
power will be 50 times
greater, and screens
will be so cheap,
they'll be everywhere
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

9. Trend 4: Examples
By 2013 By 2018
 Customers will interact with
 Wearable computers will convert
screens and shop windows
speech in order to pay bills, make
 Customers will be able to buy a appointments, and shop via the web
book from Amazon without
using a keyboard  Technology novices will use mobile
devices to easily shop for groceries that
 People will use handheld
devices for secure, are then delivered to their homes
“contactless” purchases
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group

10. New Ways to Interact:
Brain-Machine Interfaces
The ultimate integration
October 2004
A 25-year-old quadriplegic connected to a
computer plays the computer game Pong,
just by using his thoughts, via 100 tiny
sensors implanted in his brain
April 2005
PlayStation maker Sony Corp. is granted
a patent for beaming sensory information
such as smells, sounds, and images,
directly into the brain
March 2008
IDIAP Research Institute in Switzerland, has carried out a series of
successful trials in which users have been able to maneuver a
wheelchair around obstacles and people using brainpower alone.
Sources: CNN, USA Today, KurzweilAI.net; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2008
Cisco IBSG © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Internet Business Solutions Group