Ecosystem Interactions Class Discussion Presentation in Blue Green Lined Styl...
Psu Hurricane Study070609
1. CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF
SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM
SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE
Tim Frazier, Penn State University
Brent Yarnal, Penn State University
Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey
2. Introduction
Goal
Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework
that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to
facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning.
– Vulnerability assessment including SLR
– Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific
understanding with value-based human dynamics
– Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
20. Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
21. Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
22. Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
23. Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
24. All Categories with SLR
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
25. Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 1
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
26. Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 2
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
27. Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 3
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
28. Percent Total Population in Surge Zone - Category 4/5
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
29. Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone- Category 3
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
30. Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone- Category 3
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
31. Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 1
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
32. Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 2
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
33. Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 3
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
34. Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone - Category 4/5
Bee Ridge
Desoto Lakes
Englewood
Fruitville
Gulf Gate Estates
Kensington Park
Lake Sarasota
Laurel
Longboat Key
Nokomis
North Port
North Sarasota
Osprey SLOSH
Plantation Plus 30
Ridge Wood Heights
Sarasota Plus 60
Sarasota Springs
Siesta Key Plus 90
South Gate Ridge Plus 120
South Sarasota
South Venice
Southgate
The Meadows
Vamo
Venice
Venice Gardens
Warm Mineral Springs
Unincorporated
Sarasota County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
38. Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR
±
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
39. Results: Overall
• Location of
development
• Location urban
service boundary
• Infrastructure inside
hazard zones
• Cost of shifting
development
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
40. Results: Business
• ID beach specific
businesses
• Rebuilding with
FEMA restrictions
• Moving critical &
essential facilities
• Imposing mitigation
restrictions
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
41. Results: Environmental
• Mitigate SLR impacts
on environmental
areas
• Transfer development
rights
• Develop land swaps
• Replenish wetlands
for surge mitigation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
42. Results: Planners
• Increase density
outside hazards zones
• Incentives to steer
development
• Strategies to retreat
from coast
• Limited by economic
realities
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
43. Results: Facilities & Infrastructure
• Mitigate now
– Move dated
infrastructure
– Ensure functional
flexibility
– Revise existing
plan
• Plan better for
future
– Cautiously place
infrastructure in
hazard zones
– Evacuation
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
44. Results: Government Officials
• Evaluate placement
of urban service
boundary
• Mitigation need vs.
cost of moving
(facilities &
infrastructure)
• Locate high density
residential outside
hazard zones
• Transportation add
more N to S
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
45. Conclusions
• Development constricted to
hazards zones
• Specific adjustments
– Relax urban service boundary
– Steer development out of
hazards zones
– Relocate/replace infrastructure
– Explore evacuation alternatives
Urban growth boundaries in coastal
communities could contribute to
hurricane hazards exposure
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions
46.
47. Hurricane risk perceptions &
preparedness among
Sarasota business owners
Peter D. Howe
Department of Geography
The Pennsylvania State University
53. Preparedness
– Attended meetings or received written - Developed a business disaster
information on hurricane preparedness recovery plan
– Talked with those working in your - Made arrangements to move the
business about what to do in case of business to another location in
a hurricane case of damage
– Developed a plan to notify employees
– Taken action to flood-proof or wind- - Permanently moved your
proof your facility business to another location to
reduce risk of damage
– Purchased flood insurance for your
business - Obtained an emergency
– Purchased business interruption generator for use if electric power
insurance fails
– Stored water - Backed up computer data
– Stored fuel or batteries
– Stored critical inputs
– Developed a business emergency plan
Median: 8
measures
implemented
54. Differences in experience
“The more events that
you've been through, the
better educated you are.
Out here...our
changeover in business
and ownership is fairly
high.
So you have a lot of
people that are new that
haven't experienced
different situations”
(Respondent 6, owner)
Flood risk perception
Preparedness index
55. Spatial differences
Wind risk perception Flood risk perception Preparedness index
Mean preparedness index
Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals
56. Risk perception / preparedness gap
• Perceived adaptation “Being located where I am, even in a
Category 1 storm...we're probably
efficacy going to have a water issue.
So the degree to which we try to
• Perceived self- harden our buildings...we haven't
placed a lot of emphasis on it.
efficacy Because if I'm looking at protecting
this building against a Category 3, 4,
5 hurricane, wind is not going to
be the issue.
It's going to be water...where we're
sitting right now will be full of water.
And there's no way for me really
to prevent that type of damage.”
(Owner of business located on a barrier island)
57. Acknowledgements
Storm surge and sea-level rise scenarios: Tim Frazier, Nathan Wood, and Brent Yarnal
Survey recruitment: Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce
Partial support provided by:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University