Presentation ที่ไปบรรยายให้กับผู้ประกอบการซอฟต์แวร์ โครงการอบรมของสมาคม ATSI และ สมาคมการตลาด 7 สิงหาคม 2012

1. Technology Trends &
The Impact for Software Industry
Assoc.Prof. Dr. Thanachart Numnonda
Director
Software Park Thailand
7 August 2012
1

2. IT Trends
2

3. Things that Baby Born after 2011
does not know
Video tape
Travel Agents
Paper maps
Long distance call
Wired phones
Yellow and White Pages:
etc..
3

4. 15 Current Technologies My
Newborn Son Won’t Use
http://gizmodo.com/5901576/15-current-technologies-my-newborn-son-wont-use 4

5. 15 Current Technologies My
Newborn Son Won’t Use
http://gizmodo.com/5901576/15-current-technologies-my-newborn-son-wont-use 5

6. Digital Revolution
6

7. Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging
Technologies 2011
7

8. Gartner Technology Trends 2012
Media tablets and beyond
Mobile-centric applications and interfaces
Social and contextual user experience
Application stores and marketplace
The Internet of everything
Next-generation analytics
Big data
In-memory computing
Extreme low-energy servers
Cloud computing
8

9. Top 10 Gadget Trends
Nintendo Wii U
Android 4.0
iPad Mini
UltraBook
New MacAir
Kindle Fire II
iPhone 5
New iPad
Playstation Vista
Windows 8 9

10. Thailand Technology Trends 2012
10

11. Thailand Technology Trends 2012
Business Continuity
Cloud Computing
Online Consumerization
Predictive Analytic
Media Tablet and Beyonds
Mobile Centric Application, Contents & Interfaces
Social Network
High Speed Connectivity
11

12. Mobile Cloud Computing
12
Source: wikipedia

13. World IT Trends
Mobile Devices
BYOD
Cloud Computing
Social Network
Big Data
Large Data Center
13

14. 14

15. 2014
Mobile will become the most common
way of accessing the Internet
15
Source :Trending the future: Mobile Trends 2011

16. Welcome to
The Post-PC Era
16

17. Post-PC Era
17

18. iPhone
18

19. 19
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

20. SmartPhones
Smartphone usage in Thailand in 2010 is 18% and expect
to grow to 60-65% in 2015 [Frost & Sullivan]
20

21. SmartPhone Market Shares Q3 2011
21
Source :Gartner 2011

22. Smartphone Market Share
22

23. Smartphone Sales Prediction
23

24. Global smartphones annual sales will grow
about 46 percent to 687.9 million units this year
and will touch 1.05 billion units in 2014
[Credit Suisse; Apr 2012]
24

25. iPad
25

26. More than 480,000 Tablets sold in Thailand
26

27. Tablet Sales Prediction
27

28. Devices sold in Thailand 2011 is follows:
Tablet 480,000 units; Desktop 1,320,000 units and
Notebook 2,020,000 units. In 2012; The number of
Tablets sold in Thailand is expected to be
2.5 million units.
[NECTEC; Apr 2012]
28

29. Online shopping in Thailand in 2011 is 80%;
expect to grow to 93% in the next 6 months:
59% of these are mobile shopping:
[Mastercard; Apr 2012]
29

30. การใช้ Mobile Internet
30

31. องค์กรในยุค 2012
Mobile Worker
Global (ลูกค้า ผู้ร่วมงาน พันธมิตร)
Anywhere, Anytime
การทำงานอย่างต่อเนื่อง (Business Continuity)
การเปลี่ยนแปลงสู่ชีวิตดิจิตอล (Digital Life
Convergence)
31
Source : http://www.rickscloud.com/

32. แนวโน้มการใช้ซอฟต์แวร์
ต้องสามารถใช้ได้กับทุกอุปกรณ์ Notebook,Tablet,SmartPhone
สามารถเข้าถึงข้อมูลได้ทุกที่ ทุกเวลา และ ทุกอุปกรณ์
สามารถใช้งานได้อย่างต่อเนื่อง โดยไม่หยุดชะงัก และข้อมูลไม่สูญหาย
คิดค่าใช้จ่ายตามการใช้งาน OPEX ไม่ใช่ CAPEX
เป็นบริการ (Service) ไม่ใช่ ผลิตภัณฑ์ (Product)
32

33. GMail
33

34. Picasa
34

35. 35
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

36. 36
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

37. 37
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

38. Google Calendar
38

39. Google Calendar
39

40. Cloud Storage
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41. Dropbox
41

42. Dropbox
42

43. B2S BookStore
43

44. WealthMagic
44

45. เครื่องวัดความดัน
45

46. my.withings.com
46

47. Withings บน iPad
47

48. 48
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

49. 49
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

50. 50
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

51. 51
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

52. 52
Source :London Futurists; mz@envisioningtech.com

53. Mobile Cloud Computing
53

54. Mobile Cloud Computing
54
Source: wikipedia

55. 55

56. Three layers of Cloud services
Source : JAVA IN THE CLOUD 56
PAAS PLATFORM IN COMPARISON, Eberhard Wolff

57. Source : http://acloudyplace.com/ 57

58. Is this just Hosting 2.0?
No, they have different architectures
and business model
Cloud Players Hosting Players
Hundreds of them around
the world
Only few can afford billions dollar
investment on data centers
58
Source : I’m Cloud Confused

59. Top Public Cloud Provider 2011
Amazon
Verizon/Terremark
IBM
Salesforce.com
CSC
Rackspace
Google
BlueLock
Microsoft
Joyent
59

60. Google Compute Engine
60

61. Cloud Computing : SaaS
Gmail
Google Apps
Dropbox
Salesforce.com
Zoho
Microsoft Office 365
61

62. 9 Trends that Impact the Future of
Mobile Cloud Computing
Enterprise and consumer mobiles apps are getting
increasingly smart
Phone network providers are trying to climb up the
value chain.
4G LTE compatible devices are supporting bandwidth
intensive applications
The entry of iPads into the enterprise space
HTML5.
62

63. 9 Trends that Impact the Future of
Mobile Cloud Computing
The rise of mobile commerce
Fragility of mobile devices.
Increase in the worker mobility
Fragmentation of devices.
63

64. “Cloud computing will transform the IT industry
as it will alter the financial model upon
which investors look at technology providers,
and it will change vertical industries,
making the impact of the Internet on
the music industry look like a minor bleep,”.
Peter Sondergaard, senior vice president at Gartner
64

65. “At year-end 2016,
more than 50 percent of Global 1000 companies
will have stored customer-sensitive data
in the public cloud.”.
Gartner Prediction 2012
65

66. Public Clouds Will Grow To 10%
66

67. Top 5 Cloud Computing Trends
IT departments will be forever changed
Cloud security will no longer be an issue
Custom cloud computing services
Custom software development will shift towards
the cloud
Innovation
67
Source : http://www.rickscloud.com/

68. Cloud Computing
Opportunity for SME
Use ICT for their business with low
investment (no CAPEX; pay as you go)
Buy ICT as Services (subscription model)
such as SaaS
Can focus on their business
Business Continuity
New Business Opportunity
68

69. Cloud Readiness Index 2011
69
Source : Asia Cloud Computing Association: September 2011

70. BSA GlobalCloud Computing Scorecard
70
Source : BSA GlobalCloud Computing Scorecard: Feb 2012

71. BSA GlobalCloud Computing Scorecard
71
Source : BSA GlobalCloud Computing Scorecard: Feb 2012

72. Cloud Computing in Thailand
Private Cloud in Enterprise
Government Cloud Computing
More public IaaS / SaaS services
Thai Software Companies will start exploring cloud.
International software vendors will offer more SaaS
72
Source : http://www.rickscloud.com/

73. How Will Cloud Computing Impact
IT Industry?
IT Infrastructure will change dramatically
Some IT jobs may vanish altogether. New skills will be in
demand.
The way applications are developed, tested, deployed
and continuously re-factored will undergo a change
The selling and licensing of applications will change too.
Business models will change.
The architecture of applications will continue to evolve.
Data volumes will skyrocket.
Source: Dorai's Learn Log 73

74. The World in 2020
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75. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 75

76. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 76

77. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 77

78. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 78

79. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 79

80. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 80

81. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 81

82. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 82

83. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 83

84. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 84

85. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 85

86. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 86

87. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 87

88. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 88

89. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 89

90. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 90

91. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 91

92. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 92

93. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 93

94. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 94

95. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 95

96. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 96

97. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 97

98. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 98

99. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 99

100. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 100

101. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 101

102. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 102

103. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 103

104. Source: http://www.futureagenda.org/ 104

105. 12 Massive Changes That Will
Transform The Software Industry
Within 5 Years
105

106. Cloud computing changes how
companies buy software.
Instead of spending a chunk of cash
buying software licenses every three to
five years, companies are buying
subscriptions and getting their software
delivered over the Internet.
Winners: Companies with cloud in their
DNA like Salesforce.com, Google Apps
and startups
Losers: Traditional software players like
Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 106

107. Bottoms-up marketing tactics change
which software companies buy.
Instead of spending a chunk of cash
buying software licenses every three to
five years, companies are buying
subscriptions and getting their software
delivered over the Internet.
Winners: Any company selling directly to
employees.
Losers: IT departments and sometimes
their companies.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 107

108. Desktop virtualization changes how
companies deliver software.
People want to work on their own devices
and use software they like. Companies
need to control software and protect
important data. Desktop virtualization
does this. It is often called Desktop as a
Service (DaaS).
Winners: Companies like Dell, Wipro,
VMware, Red Hat, Citrix
Losers:Noone.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 108

109. Windows 8's 'Metro' interface will change
how people use Windows
Everything about Windows. Microsoft has
introduced a new Metro interface that
won't work with older Windows apps and
has a totally new user interface geared
for touch.
Winners: PC makers, who will be able to
use Windows 8 to make Windows-based
tablets.
Losers:Microsoft's faithful who hate to
relearn how to use Windows.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 109

110. The move to Web apps is breaking
Microsoft's monopoly
New web technologies like HTML5 mean
that great software can be written for the
browser and not a particular operating
system like Windows.
Winners: Cloud/web companies like
Google, software developers, and Linux
vendors like Red Hat and Canonical.
Losers: Microsoft and its most
established Windows software
developers, but maybe not permanently
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 110

111. Mobile computing changes where
software is used
Software needs to be accessible
anywhere on any device and can't be
stuck in one place anymore. People want
to be able to access work while at the
beach or soccer field
Winners: Employees. They get the freedom
to work anywhere. Device makers like Apple,
Samsung. Also network companies like
Cisco, Verizon,
Losers: Only companies stupid enough not to
see this giant wave of mobile coming.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 111

112. App stores change how much people are
willing to pay for software
Apple's app store has trained consumers
to pay a lot less for software than we
used to. We're forking out $0-$10 instead
of $30-$100.
Winners: Consumers. Startups with
alternative business models: Rovio,
Zynga, and so on.
Losers: Traditional desktop software
makers who focused on Windows apps.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 112

113. The death of the mouse changes the
software user interface
Touch and gesture interface is changing
how we interact with software.
Winners: Our wrists. People with
disabilities. Plus gesture-based
computing has created a whole new class
of cool apps like these Kinect Hacks.
Losers: Trackball makers and mice
makers like HP, Logitech, Microsoft, and
Apple. Traditional PC makers who haven't
yet built any tablets competitive with
Apple's iPad.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 113

114. Open source changes how software is
written
Software is being written by a crowd —
anyone who wants to contribute — not
controlled by a company.
Winners: The people and companies
using the software. Open source
foundations like the Linux Foundation,
Mozilla, Apache Foundation, Outercurve.
Open source projects from companies
like Red Hat.
Losers: Traditional proprietary software
makers
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 114

115. Open source changes who controls
software
Many open source projects require that
the software must always remain open
and available for anyone to see the code
and change it.
Winners: The people using and
contributing to the software. Open source
companies like Red Hat and Canonical.
Losers: Proprietary software vendors
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 115

116. Big data changes what can be done with
software
New technologies like noSQL databases
and Hadoop allow massive amounts of
data to be collected, stored, and analyzed
inexpensively. This allows all kinds of new
software to be created.
Winners: Cloud software companies that
service consumers and have to scale big,
Enterprises that want to analyze trends but
couldn't afford old fashioned data
warehouses. Storage equipment makers
Losers: big data doesn't really replace
anything, it augments it.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 116

117. Social media changes how software is
used
Social media is being embedded into
everything, from our spreadsheets to our
televisions. People want to work together,
discuss, find experts, get immediate
feedback and so on.
Winners: Facebook, LinkedIn, Google,
Yammer, file-sharing services like Box,
Salesforce, social media monitoring tools like
Lithium, Microsoft and any other company
adding social features to their software.
Losers: Most companies are finding ways to
cash in.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com// 117

118. www.facebook.com/softwareparkthailand
118

119. Thank you
thanachart@swpark.or.th
twitter.com/thanachart
www.facebook.com/thanachart
www.swpark.or.th
www.facebook.com/softwareparkthailand 119