The Benche Webinar Ukraine presented by Jenny Nordgren, seb

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This presentation is from a webinar held at the Benche on July 6, 2010. A recorded version of the webinar can be found here

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WEBINAR: Ukraine – on track again? 6 July 2010 Jenny Nordgren Country Analyst

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The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence. As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.

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The full-scale financial crisis in Russia erupted in August 1998 made a blow to the President Lukashenko domestic and foreign policy. However, a year-by-year worsening of the domestic economy due to maintaining a system of command economy led to a crisis in Belarus already in the first quarter of 1998. The crisis in Russian spilling over through trade channel only additionally aggravated economic situation in Belarus. The paper briefly characterizes the economic system in Belarus prior to the first quarter of 1998 and then analyzes consequences of the Russian financial crisis on the Belarussian economy. Authored by: Rafal Antczak, Stanislav Bogdankiewich, Pavel Daneiko, Krzysztof Polomski, Vladymir Usowski Published in 2000

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Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine  After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019  Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners  Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation  No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run

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