par Phil Lawton, Grid Operations 2020, National Grid (UK)

1. Place your chosen
image here. The four
corners must just
cover the arrow tips.
For covers, the three
pictures should be the
same size and in a
straight line.
Integrating Renewable Energy Into the GB System
Phil Lawton, Future System Operation Manager
6th September 2013

2. 22
We join everything up
Generators at one end – consumers at the other
Directly or indirectly connecting to our networks
At the centre of the industry

3. 3
National Grid

4. 4
The changing energy landscape
Decarbonise
electricity
80%
CO2 reduction by
2050
Sustainability
Affordability
Security of
supply

5. 5
UK Future Energy Scenarios
Scenarios:
• Gone Green
• Slow Progression

6. 6
Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh/Yr
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

7. 7
Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh/Yr
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Adoption matches
available energy

8. 8
Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh/Yr
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Deployment too fast: High
Carbon Generation required

9. 9
Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh/Yr
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
Deployment too Slow: Low
Carbon Generation unused

10. 10
Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh/Yr
Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports
Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
How big does the
network need to be?

11. 11
Role of the Network
 Transmission Operator:
Adequate capacity
 System Operator:
Balancing the Network
Overall Balance
Locational Balance

12. 1212
Gas: The Challenges
2000 20102013 & beyond…
Changing Gas
Flows

13. 1313
Gas: The Challenges
2000 20102013 & beyond…
Growing interaction:
Electricity to Gas

14. 14
Electricity: The Challenges
 Increasing variable generation
and need for gas back-up
 Increasing interconnection
 Increasing distributed generation
– appears as greater demand
fluctuation
 New demand patterns e.g. electric
vehicle charging and space
heating – large and volatile
 So, need enhanced capabilities

15. 15
An orderly transition to 2020/30:
Reducing uncertainty and increasing flexibility
Rules
Commercial
Tools
New Assets
Information Flows
Work Areas

16. 16
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0
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24
Time
GW
Residual Demand
Uncertain Wind
Reliable Wind
Fixed Generation
Challenge 1: Obtaining additional Reserve
Reserve
Required
Where do we get the reserve to cover the uncertainty?

17. 17
0
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Time
GW
"Surplus" Wind
Residual Demand
Wind
Fixed Generation
Challenge 2: Starting to decarbonise heat/transport
Available Low
Carbon Energy
Need active demand to “harvest” available energy

18. 18
Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
AverageLoadGW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load

19. 19
Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
AverageLoadGW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
Attempting to supply all heat from
electricity will:
• Require huge investment in
generation, networks and heat pumps
•Much of which will operate with a very
low load factor

20. 20
Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat
Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012
0
50
100
150
200
1 101 201 301
Day
AverageLoadGW
Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
Meet lower demands
using low carbon
electricity & heat pumps
Meet peak demands by gas
using existing network

21. 21
Current work areas include:
 Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
 System modelling to test proposals
 Improved forecasting of renewable output
 Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
 Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow
greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
 Demand Side Response
 Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
 Involved in drafting of European Codes
 Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
 Future interaction between gas and electricity systems

22. 22
Current work areas include:
 Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
 System modelling to test proposals
 Improved forecasting of renewable output
 Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
 Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow
greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
 Demand Side Response
 Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
 Involved in drafting of European Codes
 Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
 Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
1. Mean 24 Hour Ahead Forecast Performance Over The Last 6 Months
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Last Week
Total Capacity 5,560 5,723 5,902 5,934 6,090 6,090 6,090
Mean Absolute Error 333 357 384 314 229 307 369
as % of Capacity 5.99% 6.23% 6.50% 5.30% 3.75% 5.05% 6.06%
Mean Error 246 211 286 279 127 183 215
as % of Capacity 4.43% 3.69% 4.85% 4.71% 2.08% 3.00% 3.52%
Maximum Error 1,295 1,222 1,508 2,069 1,075 1,562 845
as % of Capacity 23.30% 21.35% 25.56% 34.87% 17.66% 25.65% 13.87%
RMS Error 404 432 493 431 292 398 432
as % of Capacity 7.27% 7.55% 8.35% 7.26% 4.79% 6.53% 7.09%
2. Last Week's 24 Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecast Against Actual
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
22-APR-
2013
23-APR-
2013
24-APR-
2013
25-APR-
2013
26-APR-
2013
27-APR-
2013
28-APR-
2013
MW
20% Confidence Interval 40% Confidence Interval 60% Confidence Interval
80% Confidence Interval Mean Forecast Total Metered

23. 23
 Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate
 System modelling to test proposals
 Improved forecasting of renewable output
 Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide
 Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow
greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system
 Demand Side Response
 Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy
 Involved in drafting of European Codes
 Engaging with DNOs on voltage control
 Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
Current work areas include:

24. 24
We are committed to working with
other stakeholders to deliver solutions
OfgemDECC
ENTSO
GB TOs
Gen Cos
Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors
Customer

25. Questions and Discussion