SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 77
SEPARATING MYTHS FROM TRUTH The Story of Investing
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SEPARATING MYTHS FROM TRUTH
DISPELLING THE MYTHS Myth : A story made up to explain a phenomenon beyond the science of the day.
TRADITIONAL INVESTING MYTHS MYTH 1: Stock Selection MYTH 2: Track-Record Investing MYTH 3: Market Timing MYTH 4: Costs of Investing
MYTH 1: STOCK SELECTION THE MYTH: Investment advisors can consistently and predictably add value by exercising “superior skill” in individual Stock selection. Stock Selection :  Choosing stocks based on a belief they will do well in the future.
Average of all US Equity funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 S&P 500 Index and CRSP Market Index data obtained from DFA Returns software 12/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. Wealth Lost to Active Stock Picking $1,388,024 $3,824,323 $2,436,299
Average of all mutual funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 Hypothetical Portfolios based on data in endnote 8. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. 8 $6,358,777 $3,813,099 $1,242,204 $2,168,746 $9,134,358
Total Number of Funds Open 2007 20,316 Total Number Born  32,076 Total Number Killed 11,760 Survivorship Bias For illustrative purposes only.  Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database.  CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS. 1218 1258 20,316 2007 974 2062 20,276 2006 1067 1847 19,188 2005 851 1576 18,408 2004 1081 1532 17,683 2003 1019 1860 17,232 2002 1002 1806 16,391 2001 865 2185 15,587 2000 56 1805 14,267 1999 489 1838 12,518 1998 537 1950 11,169 1997 507 1632 9756 1996 498 1440 8631 1995 234 1977 7689 1994 160 1655 5946 1993 174 955 4451 1992 115 555 3670 1991 186 457 3230 1990 118 251 2959 1989 80 364 2826 1988 35 457 2542 1987 24 437 2120 1986 17 326 1707 1985 19 255 1398 1984 25 194 1162 1983 24 189 993 1982 16 117 828 1981 20 73 727 1980 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 5 143 1951 0 7 138 1950 0 14 131 1949 0 4 117 1948 0 10 113 1947 0 5 103 1946 0 5 98 1945 0 6 93 1944 0 0 87 1943 0 0 87 1942 0 1 87 1941 0 8 86 1940 0 7 78 1939 0 9 71 1938 0 3 62 1937 0 2 59 1936 0 9 57 1935 0 2 48 1934 0 11 46 1933 0 15 35 1932 0 3 20 1931 0 1 17 1930 0 6 16 1929 0 4 10 1928 0 0 6 1927 0 1 6 1926 0 1 5 1925 0 3 4 1924 0 1 1 1923 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 39 383 1966 25 51 674 1979 26 32 648 1978 27 39 642 1977 25 56 630 1976 31 24 599 1975 47 32 606 1974 36 28 621 1973 35 29 629 1972 32 45 635 1971 23 59 622 1970 8 98 586 1969 1 76 496 1968 0 38 421 1967 0 25 344 1965 0 16 319 1964 0 10 303 1963 0 13 293 1962 33 26 280 1961 0 17 287 1960 0 25 270 1959 0 18 245 1958 0 20 227 1957 0 18 207 1956 0 3 189 1955 0 20 186 1954 0 13 166 1953 0 10 153 1952 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year
For illustrative purposes only.  Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database.  CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
The Worst 200 Dead Mutual Funds - 73.9 % AVERAGE RETURN For illustrative purposes only.  Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database.  CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
MYTH 2: TRACK-RECORD INVESTING Track-Record Investing : The use of performance history to determine the best investments for the future. THE MYTH: Finding funds that did well in the past is a reliable method of indicating which funds will do well in the future.
Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return  All Funds Average Return     S&P 500 Index     CRSP 1-10 Index   Total Funds 1988-1997  Total Funds 1998-2007  1988-1997 23.13 15.82 18.86 18.60 572 1998-2007 6.20 6.98 7.23 7.68 2228
Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return  All Funds Average Return S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index No. of Funds 1990-1994 18.77 9.40 8.69 9.04 569 1995-1999 21.66 22.24 28.55 27.42 1,524
A manager’s ability to pick stocks in the past has  ZERO  CORRELATION with his/her ability to do so in the future.
MYTH 3: MARKET TIMING Market Timing : Any attempt to alter or change the mix of assets based on a prediction or forecast about the future. THE MYTH:  Money managers are able to utilize  market timing to effectively predict up  & down markets.
[object Object],[object Object],DALBAR Research Study Results 3.04% Inflation (-1.35%) Market Timer Equity Fund Investor 5.83% Systematic Equity Fund Investor 4.48% Average Equity Fund Investor 11.81% S&P 500 Index 1988-2007  Annualized Return CATEGORY
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WHY MARKET TIMING DOESN’T WORK *Fact Set Research Systems  Based on initial investment of $10,000 January 1, 1996 – December 31, 2006 2,520 Trading Days
[object Object],[object Object],BEWARE: MARKET TIMING
CHARLES D. ELLIS “ The evidence on investment managers’ success with market timing is impressive - and overwhelmingly negative.” Charles D. Ellis,  Investment Policy , 1993 Charles D. Ellis  is a managing partner of Greenwich Associates, the leading consulting firm specializing in financial services worldwide. B.A. Yale, M.B.A (with distinction) Harvard and Ph.D. New York University
MYTH 4: COSTS OF INVESTING Costs of Investing :  Fees incurred by investors to buy, sell, and own stocks or mutual funds. THE MYTH:  What you don’t see can’t hurt you.
[object Object],[object Object],THE COSTS OF INVESTING
Bid/Ask Spread BUY Price $50.00 Market Maker $.50  Spread SELL Price $49.50
BID/ASK SPREAD What Your Broker Won’t Tell You Source: Reuters Trading Systems (Apr. 30, 2007) The Bid/Ask Spread as a percent of price is a conservative estimate of actual trading costs.  This estimate is almost  80 times  as great for the smallest market segment as for the largest market segment (2.40 vs 0.03). 0.24 17.92 163-521 0.06 51.32 1,800-4,454 0.03 62.86 25,456-446,994 2.40 7.95 0-163 0.11 31.11 521-1,800 0.05 58.72 4,454-25,456 Percent Spread Average Price Market Cap Range ($Millions)
CONSUMER “NO LOAD” MUTUAL FUNDS “ The key question under the new rules of the game is this: How much better must a[n]...[actively trading]... manager be to at least recover the cost of...[portfolio turnover]? The answer is daunting.”  Source: Charles D. Ellis,  Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser's Game , 1985   1. Mutual fund trading plus bid/ask spread cost taken from  Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser’s Game , 2nd Edition by Charles D. Ellis (1993) p.8-9.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SO FAR…
THE STORY OF INVESTING: FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WHAT IS FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY?
THE COMPONENTS OF FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY ,[object Object],[object Object],COMPONENT 3: The Three-Factor Model COMPONENT 2: Modern Portfolio Theory
LEADING ACADEMICS WHO CONTRIBUTE TO FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],COMPONENT 1: “ In [a free] market at any point in time the actual price of a security will be a good estimate of its intrinsic value.” - Eugene F. Fama ,  “Random Walks in Stock Market Prices,”  Financial Analysts Journal,  September/October   1965 .
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FREE MARKETS FAIL
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FREE MARKETS WORK
BELIEFS DICTATE ACTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],COMPONENT 2: Nobel Prize Winners, 1990 Harry Markowitz William Sharpe Merton Miller
DR. HARRY MARKOWITZ As a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago in the 1950's, Dr. Markowitz won acclaim for his studies on portfolio  design and risk reduction.  These concepts were later crucial for the development of Modern Portfolio Theory.  Nobel Prize Winner 1990
MARKOWITZ EFFICIENT FRONTIER Maximizing Expected Returns for Any Level of Volatility 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 10 12 14 16 One Year Standard Deviation (Volatility)  Annualized Compound Return Growth Aggressive S&P 500 Conservative Moderate
DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE 1.8 2.1 4.6 91.5
ASSET CLASS CORRELATION Example Portfolio Time Value Investment A Investment B Portfolio 50/50 Combined Portfolio
INCREASE RETURNS AND REDUCE VOLATILITY Source: DFA Returns Software 12/07 Return(%) Simplified Example Of Low Correlation Benefits January 1971 - December 2007 (in $U.S.) Standard Deviation Large U.S. 100% S&P 500 Index 1,7 11.27 16.78 70% S&P 500 1,7  30% EAFE 1,5 Large U.S.  EAFE 16.35 11.61 70% S&P 500 1 ,7   20% EAFE 1 ,5   10% Int'l Small 1 ,3,4 Large U.S.  EAFE Small Int'l 16.28 12.32
[object Object],COMPONENT 3: Source: Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1992 “The cross-section of Expected Stock Returns”,  Journal of Finance  47 (June), 427-465 Eugene Fama  &  Kenneth French ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],FACTOR 1: THE MARKET FACTOR 1926-2007   S&P 500 1,7 T-Bills Annualized Return   10.36   3.73 Standard Deviation   19.97   3.09 Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07
[object Object],[object Object],FACTOR 2: THE SIZE FACTOR Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07 1926-2007   S&P 500 1,7   U.S. Small Co. Annualized Return   10.36   12.49 Standard Deviation   19.97   38.83
[object Object],[object Object],FACTOR 3: THE VALUE FACTOR Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07 July 1926-2007   S&P 500 1,7   U.S. Lg. Value 1,2 Annualized Return   10.45   12.48 Standard Deviation   19.10   25.09
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],THE TRUTH
BUILDING A BETTER PORTFOLIO AVERAGE INVESTOR EQUITY PERFORMANCE
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Portfolio 1 100% Equity Mutual Funds 1988-2007  Portfolio 1  4.48  15.79 Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%) 60% 40% Actual Investor Results 100% Equity Mutual Funds Dalbar Investor Results Research for period 1988-2007 Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WHY ARE THE RETURNS SO LOW? *Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007, 20-year period
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Basic Passively Invested Portfolio S&P 500 Index 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 *   4.48  15.79 Portfolio 2  10.97  17.23 Portfolio 1   100% Portfolio 2   100% Equity Mutual Funds 100% S&P 500 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Including Fixed Income Assets in the Portfolio 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 60% 20% 20% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 *   4.48  15.79 Portfolio 2  10.97  17.23 Portfolio 3  10.12  10.78 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1   100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3   60% 20% 20% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Including International Assets in the Portfolios 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 30% 20% 20% 30% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 *   4.48  15.79 Portfolio 2  10.97  17.23 Portfolio 3  10.12  10.78 Portfolio 4  10.16  10.62 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1   100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3   60% 20% 20% Portfolio 4     30% 20% 20% 30% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Adding Small Cap Stocks 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 20% 15% 20% 15% 15% 15% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 *   4.48  15.79 Portfolio 2  10.97  17.23 Portfolio 3  10.12  10.78 Portfolio 4  10.16  10.62 Portfolio 5  11.48  11.31 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1   100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3   60% 20% 20% Portfolio 4     30% 20% 20% 30% Portfolio 5     15% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index U.S. 9-10 Small Co. Int’l Small Cap Stocks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Adding High Book-to-Market [Value] Stocks Annualized Return (%) 20% 20% 7.5% 15% 7.5% 7.5% 15% 7.5% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 *   4.48  15.79 Portfolio 2  10.97  17.23 Portfolio 3  10.12  10.78 Portfolio 4  10.16  10.62 Portfolio 5  11.48  11.31 Portfolio 6  12.06  10.98 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2   100% Portfolio 3   60%  20%  20% Portfolio 4   30% 20% 20% 30% Portfolio 5   15% 20% 20% 15%  15%  15% Portfolio 6   7.5%  20%  20% 15%  7.5%  15%  7.5%  7.5% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index U.S. 9-10 Small Co. Int’l Small Cap Stocks U.S. Small Cap Value U.S. Large Cap Value 1973-2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE 20 MUST-ANSWER QUESTIONS FOR YOUR JOURNEY TOWARD PEACE OF MIND Directions: Answer each question “Yes” or “No.”  Your Answer must be 100% “Yes” to qualify as “Yes.”
QUESTION 1 Have you discovered your True Purpose for Money, that which is more important than money itself?
QUESTION 2 Are you invested in the Market?
QUESTION 3 Do you know how markets work?
QUESTION 4 Have you defined your Investment Philosophy?
QUESTION 5 Have you identified your personal risk tolerance?
QUESTION 6 Do you know how to measure diversification in your portfolio?
QUESTION 7 Do you consistently and predictably achieve market returns?
QUESTION 8 Have you measured the total amount of commissions and costs in your portfolio?
QUESTION 9 Do you know where you fall on the Markowitz Efficient Frontier?
QUESTION 10 When it comes to building your investment portfolio, do you know exactly what you are doing and why?
QUESTION 11 Are you working with a financial coach versus a financial planner?
QUESTION 12 Do you have a customized lifelong game plan to guide all of your investing and spending decisions?
QUESTION 13 Do you have an Investment Policy Statement?
QUESTION 14 Have you devised a clear-cut method for measuring the success or failure of your portfolio?
QUESTION 15 Do you fully understand the implications and applications of diversification in your portfolio?
QUESTION 16 Do you have a system to measure portfolio volatility?
QUESTION 17 Are you aware of the incentives brokerage firms and the financial community have when selling commission-based products?
QUESTION 18 Do you know the three warning signs that you are gambling and speculating with your money versus prudently investing it?
QUESTION 19 Can you identify the cultural messages and personal mind-sets about money that destroy your peace of mind?
QUESTION 20 Are you ready to shift your personal experience of money and investing from a scarcity mode to an abundance mode?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SCORING: Give yourself 5 points for every “Yes” answer.
Learn more about what this means for you THE OPPORTUNITY
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],ENDNOTES
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],ENDNOTES

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms
2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms
2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperformsFrederic Jamet
 
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformanceFrederic Jamet
 
Improving Your Trading Plan
Improving Your Trading PlanImproving Your Trading Plan
Improving Your Trading PlanBenjamin Cheeks
 
Madoff $65 billion Trap. A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returns
Madoff $65 billion Trap.  A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returnsMadoff $65 billion Trap.  A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returns
Madoff $65 billion Trap. A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returnsGaetan Lion
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsBabasab Patil
 
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatilityFrederic Jamet
 
Structured Investing In an Unstructured World
Structured Investing In an Unstructured WorldStructured Investing In an Unstructured World
Structured Investing In an Unstructured WorldCJM Fiscal Management
 
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements by A...
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcementsby A...Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcementsby A...
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements by A...Quantopian
 
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Finalmjdeschaine
 
corporate finance and market efficiency
corporate finance and market efficiencycorporate finance and market efficiency
corporate finance and market efficiencygeet232
 
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading Strategy
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading StrategyInefficient Innovation: A Trading Strategy
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading StrategyMarco Bennett
 
Tamohara investment newsletter April 2015
Tamohara investment newsletter  April 2015Tamohara investment newsletter  April 2015
Tamohara investment newsletter April 2015tamohara
 
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classesamadei77
 
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following InvestingA Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following InvestingTrading Game Pty Ltd
 

La actualidad más candente (19)

2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms
2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms
2015 why low beta (and not low volatility) outperforms
 
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance
2012 what drives value tilt portfolios overperformance
 
Improving Your Trading Plan
Improving Your Trading PlanImproving Your Trading Plan
Improving Your Trading Plan
 
C Score
C ScoreC Score
C Score
 
Madoff $65 billion Trap. A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returns
Madoff $65 billion Trap.  A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returnsMadoff $65 billion Trap.  A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returns
Madoff $65 billion Trap. A study in unlikely hedge fund economic returns
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec doms
 
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility
2012 what are the performance drivers of the global managed volatility
 
Structured Investing In an Unstructured World
Structured Investing In an Unstructured WorldStructured Investing In an Unstructured World
Structured Investing In an Unstructured World
 
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements by A...
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcementsby A...Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcementsby A...
Trading Strategies Based on Market Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements by A...
 
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final
2nd Qrt 2010 8 Page Final
 
Portfolio perspectives smart_beta_0614
Portfolio perspectives smart_beta_0614Portfolio perspectives smart_beta_0614
Portfolio perspectives smart_beta_0614
 
The composite man
The composite manThe composite man
The composite man
 
Vgfa 2013-09
Vgfa 2013-09Vgfa 2013-09
Vgfa 2013-09
 
Behaviour finance
Behaviour financeBehaviour finance
Behaviour finance
 
corporate finance and market efficiency
corporate finance and market efficiencycorporate finance and market efficiency
corporate finance and market efficiency
 
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading Strategy
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading StrategyInefficient Innovation: A Trading Strategy
Inefficient Innovation: A Trading Strategy
 
Tamohara investment newsletter April 2015
Tamohara investment newsletter  April 2015Tamohara investment newsletter  April 2015
Tamohara investment newsletter April 2015
 
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes
20 years of VIX - Fear, Greed and Traditional Asset Classes
 
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following InvestingA Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing
 

Destacado

Indicadores emprendimiento
Indicadores emprendimientoIndicadores emprendimiento
Indicadores emprendimientosarmientoe
 
Choosing Your Investment Philosophy
Choosing Your Investment PhilosophyChoosing Your Investment Philosophy
Choosing Your Investment PhilosophyRichard Reyes
 
When Active Investing is the Best Strategy
When Active Investing is the Best StrategyWhen Active Investing is the Best Strategy
When Active Investing is the Best StrategyWelch LLP
 
Dual Momentum Investing
Dual Momentum InvestingDual Momentum Investing
Dual Momentum InvestingGary Antonacci
 
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial Independence
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial IndependenceRichard Horowitz: Achieving Financial Independence
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial IndependenceRichard Horowitz
 
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...Quantopian
 
Presentation Active vs Passive Management
Presentation Active vs Passive ManagementPresentation Active vs Passive Management
Presentation Active vs Passive Managementinvestmentbeliefs
 
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016Quantopian
 
Technical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptTechnical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptrahul94
 

Destacado (9)

Indicadores emprendimiento
Indicadores emprendimientoIndicadores emprendimiento
Indicadores emprendimiento
 
Choosing Your Investment Philosophy
Choosing Your Investment PhilosophyChoosing Your Investment Philosophy
Choosing Your Investment Philosophy
 
When Active Investing is the Best Strategy
When Active Investing is the Best StrategyWhen Active Investing is the Best Strategy
When Active Investing is the Best Strategy
 
Dual Momentum Investing
Dual Momentum InvestingDual Momentum Investing
Dual Momentum Investing
 
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial Independence
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial IndependenceRichard Horowitz: Achieving Financial Independence
Richard Horowitz: Achieving Financial Independence
 
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, but Not Easy by Wesley Gr...
 
Presentation Active vs Passive Management
Presentation Active vs Passive ManagementPresentation Active vs Passive Management
Presentation Active vs Passive Management
 
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci QuantCon 2016
 
Technical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptTechnical analysis ppt
Technical analysis ppt
 

Similar a Separating Myths from Truth - The True Story of Investing

Separating Myths From Truth The Story Of Investing
Separating Myths From Truth   The Story Of InvestingSeparating Myths From Truth   The Story Of Investing
Separating Myths From Truth The Story Of InvestingOmar Pereira
 
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentationOmar Pereira
 
Science Of Investing Us
Science Of Investing UsScience Of Investing Us
Science Of Investing UsAegisAdvisor
 
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience  2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Susan Linkous, AIF®
 
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docx
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docxThe Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docx
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docxtodd771
 
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing Noel
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing   Noel5 Concepts Of Successful Investing   Noel
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing Noelnoelfarrelly
 
Investing for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetimeInvesting for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetimetubesock
 
Investments For Life
Investments For LifeInvestments For Life
Investments For LifeMBritos
 
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drills
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire DrillsPast is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drills
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drillsmcclainlovejoy
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsBabasab Patil
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsBabasab Patil
 
Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice
Modern Portfolio Theory and PracticeModern Portfolio Theory and Practice
Modern Portfolio Theory and PracticeDavid Roodman
 
Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Mark Biegel
 

Similar a Separating Myths from Truth - The True Story of Investing (20)

Separating Myths From Truth The Story Of Investing
Separating Myths From Truth   The Story Of InvestingSeparating Myths From Truth   The Story Of Investing
Separating Myths From Truth The Story Of Investing
 
AAII Los Angeles September 2014
AAII Los Angeles September 2014AAII Los Angeles September 2014
AAII Los Angeles September 2014
 
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation
2013 05-14 separating mythsfromtruthsthestoryofinvestingpowerpointpresentation
 
Science Of Investing Us
Science Of Investing UsScience Of Investing Us
Science Of Investing Us
 
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience  2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience
2017 Pursuing a Better Investment Experience
 
JMS Partners Equity Strategy
JMS Partners Equity StrategyJMS Partners Equity Strategy
JMS Partners Equity Strategy
 
Summer Project
Summer ProjectSummer Project
Summer Project
 
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docx
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docxThe Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docx
The Financial Review 40 (2005) 1--9Reflections on the Effi.docx
 
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing Noel
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing   Noel5 Concepts Of Successful Investing   Noel
5 Concepts Of Successful Investing Noel
 
Investing for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetimeInvesting for a lifetime
Investing for a lifetime
 
Investments For Life
Investments For LifeInvestments For Life
Investments For Life
 
Ten Ways to Wealth
Ten Ways to WealthTen Ways to Wealth
Ten Ways to Wealth
 
Ten Ways to Wealth
Ten Ways to WealthTen Ways to Wealth
Ten Ways to Wealth
 
Key questions for the long term investor
Key questions for the long term investorKey questions for the long term investor
Key questions for the long term investor
 
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drills
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire DrillsPast is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drills
Past is Prologue: Conducting Financial Fire Drills
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec doms
 
Market behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec domsMarket behavior research @ bec doms
Market behavior research @ bec doms
 
Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice
Modern Portfolio Theory and PracticeModern Portfolio Theory and Practice
Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice
 
Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019
 
Investment Insights, October 2017
Investment Insights, October 2017Investment Insights, October 2017
Investment Insights, October 2017
 

Último

02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja Nehwal
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfGale Pooley
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfGale Pooley
 
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escortsranjana rawat
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfGale Pooley
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdfGale Pooley
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
Basic concepts related to Financial modelling
Basic concepts related to Financial modellingBasic concepts related to Financial modelling
Basic concepts related to Financial modellingbaijup5
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Bookingroncy bisnoi
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdfGale Pooley
 
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...ssifa0344
 
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri 6297143586 Call Hot Ind...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri  6297143586 Call Hot Ind...Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri  6297143586 Call Hot Ind...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri 6297143586 Call Hot Ind...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceCALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceanilsa9823
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfGale Pooley
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escortsranjana rawat
 

Último (20)

02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
 
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home DeliveryPooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
Pooja 9892124323 : Call Girl in Juhu Escorts Service Free Home Delivery
 
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 21.pdf
 
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 17.pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 30.pdf
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
 
Basic concepts related to Financial modelling
Basic concepts related to Financial modellingBasic concepts related to Financial modelling
Basic concepts related to Financial modelling
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
 
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
 
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri 6297143586 Call Hot Ind...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri  6297143586 Call Hot Ind...Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri  6297143586 Call Hot Ind...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Wadgaon Sheri 6297143586 Call Hot Ind...
 
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual serviceCALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
CALL ON ➥8923113531 🔝Call Girls Gomti Nagar Lucknow best sexual service
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 

Separating Myths from Truth - The True Story of Investing

  • 1. SEPARATING MYTHS FROM TRUTH The Story of Investing
  • 2.
  • 3. DISPELLING THE MYTHS Myth : A story made up to explain a phenomenon beyond the science of the day.
  • 4. TRADITIONAL INVESTING MYTHS MYTH 1: Stock Selection MYTH 2: Track-Record Investing MYTH 3: Market Timing MYTH 4: Costs of Investing
  • 5. MYTH 1: STOCK SELECTION THE MYTH: Investment advisors can consistently and predictably add value by exercising “superior skill” in individual Stock selection. Stock Selection : Choosing stocks based on a belief they will do well in the future.
  • 6. Average of all US Equity funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 S&P 500 Index and CRSP Market Index data obtained from DFA Returns software 12/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. Wealth Lost to Active Stock Picking $1,388,024 $3,824,323 $2,436,299
  • 7. Average of all mutual funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 Hypothetical Portfolios based on data in endnote 8. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. 8 $6,358,777 $3,813,099 $1,242,204 $2,168,746 $9,134,358
  • 8. Total Number of Funds Open 2007 20,316 Total Number Born 32,076 Total Number Killed 11,760 Survivorship Bias For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS. 1218 1258 20,316 2007 974 2062 20,276 2006 1067 1847 19,188 2005 851 1576 18,408 2004 1081 1532 17,683 2003 1019 1860 17,232 2002 1002 1806 16,391 2001 865 2185 15,587 2000 56 1805 14,267 1999 489 1838 12,518 1998 537 1950 11,169 1997 507 1632 9756 1996 498 1440 8631 1995 234 1977 7689 1994 160 1655 5946 1993 174 955 4451 1992 115 555 3670 1991 186 457 3230 1990 118 251 2959 1989 80 364 2826 1988 35 457 2542 1987 24 437 2120 1986 17 326 1707 1985 19 255 1398 1984 25 194 1162 1983 24 189 993 1982 16 117 828 1981 20 73 727 1980 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 5 143 1951 0 7 138 1950 0 14 131 1949 0 4 117 1948 0 10 113 1947 0 5 103 1946 0 5 98 1945 0 6 93 1944 0 0 87 1943 0 0 87 1942 0 1 87 1941 0 8 86 1940 0 7 78 1939 0 9 71 1938 0 3 62 1937 0 2 59 1936 0 9 57 1935 0 2 48 1934 0 11 46 1933 0 15 35 1932 0 3 20 1931 0 1 17 1930 0 6 16 1929 0 4 10 1928 0 0 6 1927 0 1 6 1926 0 1 5 1925 0 3 4 1924 0 1 1 1923 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 39 383 1966 25 51 674 1979 26 32 648 1978 27 39 642 1977 25 56 630 1976 31 24 599 1975 47 32 606 1974 36 28 621 1973 35 29 629 1972 32 45 635 1971 23 59 622 1970 8 98 586 1969 1 76 496 1968 0 38 421 1967 0 25 344 1965 0 16 319 1964 0 10 303 1963 0 13 293 1962 33 26 280 1961 0 17 287 1960 0 25 270 1959 0 18 245 1958 0 20 227 1957 0 18 207 1956 0 3 189 1955 0 20 186 1954 0 13 166 1953 0 10 153 1952 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year
  • 9. For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
  • 10. The Worst 200 Dead Mutual Funds - 73.9 % AVERAGE RETURN For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
  • 11. MYTH 2: TRACK-RECORD INVESTING Track-Record Investing : The use of performance history to determine the best investments for the future. THE MYTH: Finding funds that did well in the past is a reliable method of indicating which funds will do well in the future.
  • 12. Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return All Funds Average Return S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index Total Funds 1988-1997 Total Funds 1998-2007 1988-1997 23.13 15.82 18.86 18.60 572 1998-2007 6.20 6.98 7.23 7.68 2228
  • 13. Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return All Funds Average Return S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index No. of Funds 1990-1994 18.77 9.40 8.69 9.04 569 1995-1999 21.66 22.24 28.55 27.42 1,524
  • 14. A manager’s ability to pick stocks in the past has ZERO CORRELATION with his/her ability to do so in the future.
  • 15. MYTH 3: MARKET TIMING Market Timing : Any attempt to alter or change the mix of assets based on a prediction or forecast about the future. THE MYTH: Money managers are able to utilize market timing to effectively predict up & down markets.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. CHARLES D. ELLIS “ The evidence on investment managers’ success with market timing is impressive - and overwhelmingly negative.” Charles D. Ellis, Investment Policy , 1993 Charles D. Ellis is a managing partner of Greenwich Associates, the leading consulting firm specializing in financial services worldwide. B.A. Yale, M.B.A (with distinction) Harvard and Ph.D. New York University
  • 20. MYTH 4: COSTS OF INVESTING Costs of Investing : Fees incurred by investors to buy, sell, and own stocks or mutual funds. THE MYTH: What you don’t see can’t hurt you.
  • 21.
  • 22. Bid/Ask Spread BUY Price $50.00 Market Maker $.50 Spread SELL Price $49.50
  • 23. BID/ASK SPREAD What Your Broker Won’t Tell You Source: Reuters Trading Systems (Apr. 30, 2007) The Bid/Ask Spread as a percent of price is a conservative estimate of actual trading costs. This estimate is almost 80 times as great for the smallest market segment as for the largest market segment (2.40 vs 0.03). 0.24 17.92 163-521 0.06 51.32 1,800-4,454 0.03 62.86 25,456-446,994 2.40 7.95 0-163 0.11 31.11 521-1,800 0.05 58.72 4,454-25,456 Percent Spread Average Price Market Cap Range ($Millions)
  • 24. CONSUMER “NO LOAD” MUTUAL FUNDS “ The key question under the new rules of the game is this: How much better must a[n]...[actively trading]... manager be to at least recover the cost of...[portfolio turnover]? The answer is daunting.” Source: Charles D. Ellis, Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser's Game , 1985 1. Mutual fund trading plus bid/ask spread cost taken from Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser’s Game , 2nd Edition by Charles D. Ellis (1993) p.8-9.
  • 25.
  • 26. THE STORY OF INVESTING: FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. DR. HARRY MARKOWITZ As a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago in the 1950's, Dr. Markowitz won acclaim for his studies on portfolio design and risk reduction. These concepts were later crucial for the development of Modern Portfolio Theory. Nobel Prize Winner 1990
  • 36. MARKOWITZ EFFICIENT FRONTIER Maximizing Expected Returns for Any Level of Volatility 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 10 12 14 16 One Year Standard Deviation (Volatility) Annualized Compound Return Growth Aggressive S&P 500 Conservative Moderate
  • 37. DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE 1.8 2.1 4.6 91.5
  • 38. ASSET CLASS CORRELATION Example Portfolio Time Value Investment A Investment B Portfolio 50/50 Combined Portfolio
  • 39. INCREASE RETURNS AND REDUCE VOLATILITY Source: DFA Returns Software 12/07 Return(%) Simplified Example Of Low Correlation Benefits January 1971 - December 2007 (in $U.S.) Standard Deviation Large U.S. 100% S&P 500 Index 1,7 11.27 16.78 70% S&P 500 1,7 30% EAFE 1,5 Large U.S. EAFE 16.35 11.61 70% S&P 500 1 ,7 20% EAFE 1 ,5 10% Int'l Small 1 ,3,4 Large U.S. EAFE Small Int'l 16.28 12.32
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. BUILDING A BETTER PORTFOLIO AVERAGE INVESTOR EQUITY PERFORMANCE
  • 46. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Portfolio 1 100% Equity Mutual Funds 1988-2007 Portfolio 1 4.48 15.79 Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%) 60% 40% Actual Investor Results 100% Equity Mutual Funds Dalbar Investor Results Research for period 1988-2007 Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53. THE 20 MUST-ANSWER QUESTIONS FOR YOUR JOURNEY TOWARD PEACE OF MIND Directions: Answer each question “Yes” or “No.” Your Answer must be 100% “Yes” to qualify as “Yes.”
  • 54. QUESTION 1 Have you discovered your True Purpose for Money, that which is more important than money itself?
  • 55. QUESTION 2 Are you invested in the Market?
  • 56. QUESTION 3 Do you know how markets work?
  • 57. QUESTION 4 Have you defined your Investment Philosophy?
  • 58. QUESTION 5 Have you identified your personal risk tolerance?
  • 59. QUESTION 6 Do you know how to measure diversification in your portfolio?
  • 60. QUESTION 7 Do you consistently and predictably achieve market returns?
  • 61. QUESTION 8 Have you measured the total amount of commissions and costs in your portfolio?
  • 62. QUESTION 9 Do you know where you fall on the Markowitz Efficient Frontier?
  • 63. QUESTION 10 When it comes to building your investment portfolio, do you know exactly what you are doing and why?
  • 64. QUESTION 11 Are you working with a financial coach versus a financial planner?
  • 65. QUESTION 12 Do you have a customized lifelong game plan to guide all of your investing and spending decisions?
  • 66. QUESTION 13 Do you have an Investment Policy Statement?
  • 67. QUESTION 14 Have you devised a clear-cut method for measuring the success or failure of your portfolio?
  • 68. QUESTION 15 Do you fully understand the implications and applications of diversification in your portfolio?
  • 69. QUESTION 16 Do you have a system to measure portfolio volatility?
  • 70. QUESTION 17 Are you aware of the incentives brokerage firms and the financial community have when selling commission-based products?
  • 71. QUESTION 18 Do you know the three warning signs that you are gambling and speculating with your money versus prudently investing it?
  • 72. QUESTION 19 Can you identify the cultural messages and personal mind-sets about money that destroy your peace of mind?
  • 73. QUESTION 20 Are you ready to shift your personal experience of money and investing from a scarcity mode to an abundance mode?
  • 74.
  • 75. Learn more about what this means for you THE OPPORTUNITY
  • 76.
  • 77.

Notas del editor

  1. The Purpose for Leading this Presentation is to explain the common misconceptions about investing and introduce Free Market Portfolio Theory. At this point I’d like to spend about 45 minutes showing you the key concepts that have led to my conclusion about this new investment solution. First, we have to discuss the myths that are so frequently taught to the average, unsuspecting investor and then I’ll contrast that with the truth about successful investing.