Ian taylor's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

1. Page 1
Latest Main Market Economic Data
February 2010
NOCs and the new energy dynamic:
A trader’s perspective
Presented by Ian Taylor
World National Oil Companies Congress, London
24th June 2010

2. Page 2
Economic Growth
Economic growth remains the
major determinant of oil demand
Intense recession in 2008/2009 led
to oil demand falling for the first
time since the early 1980s
However economic growth has
picked up and so too has oil
demand.
There has however been a marked
shift in the share of oil demand
accounted for by developing
countries.
From around 35% of total demand
in 2000 by 2015 non OECD
countries are expected to account
for more than half of the total
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Oil Demand Growth GDP (% Change)
Millionb/d
Global Economic Activity & Oil Demand Growth
%ChangePerAnnun
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
OECD Non-OECD
% Share Of Global Oil Demand

3. Page 3
Oil Demand
In N. America oil demand fell very
sharply in the recession and is not
expected to get back to 2000 levels by
2015.
In Europe and Japan demand is
expected to continue to decline. In
Europe we expect demand to be
nearly 2 million b/d below the 2005
level.
In marked contrast significant demand
growth is expected to be maintained in
Asia and the Middle East. By 2015 we
expect these two areas combined to
have demand more than 12 million b/d
higher than in 2000.
2000 2005 2010 2015
Regional Demand
North America 23.78 25.21 23.30 23.54
S / C America 5.27 5.68 6.46 7.04
Europe 15.94 16.40 15.07 14.52
FSU 3.78 3.93 4.05 4.19
Africa 2.46 2.94 3.24 3.74
Middle East 4.89 6.06 7.34 8.82
Asia 21.06 24.35 27.02 29.62
World 77.18 84.57 86.48 91.47
Product Demand
LPG 7.41 8.15 8.62 9.48
Naphtha 5.03 5.76 6.09 6.24
Gasoline 19.63 21.33 22.29 23.18
Jet / Kero 6.31 6.52 6.32 6.90
Gas / Diesel 20.07 23.14 24.71 26.86
Residual Fuel Oil 10.28 10.02 8.55 8.50
Other Products 8.45 9.65 9.90 10.31
Total 77.18 84.57 86.48 91.47

4. Page 4
Fuel Oil Demand – A Structural Shift?
Demand for residual fuel oil was hit
very hard by the recession.
Part of the decline was accounted
for by bunkers as international
trade was reduced.
The recession also hurt electricity
demand.
However it seems also that the
very weak relative price of natural
gas has reinvigorated inter fuel
competition.
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Global Fuel Oil Demand
Oil and Gas Price Competition
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
$/MMBTU
Nymex WTI Nymex Nat Gas

5. Page 5
Coal: Preferred Asian Fuel In Power Generation
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
China
Asia (Ex CN)
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Europe
S/C America
N America
2000
2008
2015
Regional Steam Coal Demand
(Mln Tons)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Projected Annual Change In Steam Coal Demand
(Including China)
Demand(MlnTons)
Coal remains the cheapest energy
source for power generation
despite the environmental issues.
Chinese coal demand dominates
the world total and is expected to
continue to sustain growth in
demand through the next five
years
Emissions are the major concern
that this raises.

6. Page 6
USA Gasoline Demand
Gasoline demand in the USA grew
inexorably for 15 years until 2008
when it fell by around 250 k bd.
There is currently little sign of
recovery.
In part this reduction has been
caused by the recession but in
part also appears to have been
caused by changes in habits.
US drivers have been driving less
and they have shifted their
preferences to more fuel efficient
vehicles.
The market and high prices would
appear to work!
This loss of demand has been
exacerbated by increased sue of
ethanol.
2,850
2,875
2,900
2,925
2,950
2,975
3,000
3,025
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
USA: Vehicle Miles Travelled (Billion Miles)
*2010 = Extrapolated From YTD Data
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US Gasoline Demand (Mln b/d)

7. Page 7
China: Cars and Gasoline Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China: Gasoline Use & Car Ownership
GasolineDemand/Car(bbls)
CarFleet(MlnUnits)
Mln b/d 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
LPG 0.08 0.24 0.43 0.65 0.70 0.76
Naphtha 0.22 0.33 0.50 0.71 1.11 1.31
Gasoline 0.44 0.68 0.82 1.13 1.66 2.21
Jet / Kero 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.25 0.36 0.46
Gas / Diesel 0.55 0.88 1.38 2.24 3.12 3.85
Fuel Oil 0.62 0.68 0.67 0.78 0.59 0.49
Others 0.28 0.36 0.57 0.93 1.42 1.77
Total 2.25 3.28 4.56 6.69 8.96 10.85
China: Oil Demand Developments
The growth in China’s economy has
been a large driver of oil demand
growth in the past decade.
The car fleet has increased from
less than 3 million to over 50 million
this year and forecast to increase to
around 100 million by 2015.
However this is not giving the
growth in demand that some
expected as use of each car has
fallen dramatically.
Diesel demand is the other major
element of growth and can be
expected to continue to grow
strongly as long as the economy
continues to expand.

8. Page 8
Non OPEC Oil Production
Non OPEC crude production
reached a temporary peak in 2004
but last year growth was again
evident.
Further limited growth is expected in
the next few years although the
recent problems in the US Gulf may
result in some slowdown in
development.
The contribution of non crude
supplies has been growing and is
forecast to continue to grow.
Biofuels are forecast to increase to
close to 4 million b/d by 2015.
Developments in Non OPEC Supply
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
000b/d
Development in Non Crude Supplies
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
millionb/d
Biofuels/GTL/CTL OPEC NGL & Condensate Processing Gains

9. Page 9
000 b/d Jul-08 Jan-09 May-10 Jan-09 May-10
vs Jul 08 vs Jan 09
Algeria 1400 1280 1265 -120 -15
Angola 1920 1725 1830 -195 105
Ecuador 500 505 475 5 -30
Iran 3925 3725 3745 -200 20
Iraq 2450 2450 2415 0 -35
Kuwait 2575 2325 2205 -250 -120
Libya 1670 1600 1550 -70 -50
Nigeria 2045 1875 2246 -170 371
Qatar 860 770 815 -90 45
Saudi Arabia 9700 8000 8215 -1700 215
UAE 2600 2250 2305 -350 55
Venezuela 2365 2250 2235 -115 -15
Total 32010 28755 29301 -3255 546
OPEC Production by Member Country
OPEC Crude Oil Production
In the period 2004 through 2008
the level of OPEC’s spare
production capacity fell to very low
levels.
It can be argued that this was the
principle factor that allowed oil
prices to increase to over $140/bbl.
Spare capacity is now significant
and is forecast to remain so.
There have been large additions to
production capacity particularly in
Saudi Arabia.
Also OPEC cut production by more
than 3 million b/d to defend prices
when they dropped so sharply at
the end of 2008.
Development in OPEC Spare Capacity
15
20
25
30
35
40
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
millionb/d
Production Total Capacity

10. Page 10
Refinery Capacity – Moving East
The growth in oil demand in
developing countries, particularly in
Asia, has resulted in a large
increase in refining capacity largely
to meet this demand.
Moreover the new capacity has
been used at high utilisation rates.
By contrast in the Atlantic Basin
refinery throughput has fallen and a
number of refineries have been
closed.
This has shifted crude oil supply
patterns and increasing volumes of
crude have been moving from the
Atlantic Basin into Asia.
This trend is forecast to continue in
the next five years.
Development in Regional Refinery Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010
millionb/d
Atlantic Basin Middle East Asia
million b/d 2000 2010
Atlantic Basin
Production 38.50 43.04
Refinery Throughput 45.95 43.52
Net Balance -7.45 -0.48
Middle East
Production 21.30 22.25
Refinery Throughput 5.43 6.10
Net Balance 15.87 16.15
Asia
Production 7.80 8.09
Refinery Throughput 18.08 24.20
Net Balance -10.28 -16.11
Changes in Crude Flows

11. Page 11
Oil Price Volatility
The past few years saw dramatic
price swings and very high
volatility in prices.
Hedging of physical inventory
became a necessity for
companies that could not survive
this level of volatility.
In the past nine months price
volatility has diminished and for a
great deal of that time prices have
traded between $70/bbl and
$85/bbl.
Development in Front Month IPE Brent Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
$/bbl
Development in Front Month IPE Brent Prices
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2/11/200916/11/200930/11/200914/12/200928/12/200911/1/201025/1/2010
8/2/201022/2/2010
8/3/201022/3/2010
5/4/201019/4/2010
3/5/201017/5/201031/5/201014/6/2010
$/bbl

12. Page 12
Investment in Commodities
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
CRB Commodity Index
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1-05
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-08
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-09
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-10
A&M
Estimated Commodity Inflows ($Bn)
(Quarterly Inflows Into Indices, ETP, MTNs)
From early in the decade there was a
sea change in the investment
community’s attitude towards
commodities.
Investment funds began to flow into
commodities, including oil, and this
flow became a major market factor.
Investing in the futures markets is
very easy.
The flow disappeared and even
reversed in the second half of 2008
but has since re emerged on the long
side as the investment funds see the
world economic picture improving and
expect oil prices to reflect this.
Over the medium term we remain of
the view that supply and demand
fundamentals will shape the oil market
but in the short term the impact of
money flows can outweigh the
fundamentals.

13. Page 13
Background
• The very high prices and price volatility seen in 2008, the emergence of hedge
funds investing in commodities in general (and energy in particular) and the
problems seen in the world financial system have combined to lead calls for
greater regulation of derivative markets. This is despite the fact that energy
exchanges have over time performed well in our view
• The new regulations will almost certainly result in greater disclosure requirements,
more business being required to be cleared and potentially reduced liquidity.
• The one certain result is higher costs of trading which will potentially increase the
cost of delivering physical oil to market.
Trading, Hedging and Regulation

14. Page 14
Vitol’s Perspective
• As physical traders Vitol uses derivatives markets to hedge its flat price exposure
and needs to continue to do so. Our major concern is that we are able to continue
to hedge all our physical cargoes and therefore provide the best and most
comprehensive service to end users and consumers.
• Vitol will do whatever the regulators require and provide input where possible but
is concerned by the resulting increased cost burden.
NOC’s Perspective
• They don’t trade /hedge and so the regulatory changes should have little or no
direct impact
• NOCs have become much more knowledgeable of trading markets over the past
10 years. Transparency of prices for both physical and paper products is now total
across the world.
• Physical traders are expecting thin margins and more competitive markets.
Trading, Hedging and Regulation