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Local Bias and its Impacts on the Performance of Parametric Estimation Models Ye Yang, Lang Xie, Zhimin He (ISCAS) Qi Li, Vu Nguyen, Barry Boehm  (USC) Ricardo Valerdi  (MIT/Univ. of Arizona) Sep. 21, 2011 Promise 2011, Banff, Canada
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background ,[object Object],Model user Model maintener Model researcher
Background(Cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Background (Cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example: COCOMO II model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ln_effort Ln_Size
Research questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Local Bias Definition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary of Dataset  CII 2000 Subset After2000 Subset CII 2010 Dataset
Analysis procedure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CII 2000 Subset After2000 Subset Subset 1 … A, B A 1 ’ , B 1 ’ A 2 ’ , B 2 ’ A n ’ , B n ’ local_bias 1 local_bias 2 local_bias n CII 2010 Dataset Subset 2 Subset n Group by Organization_ID Default Constants: A, B
Measuring local bias - Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measuring the impacts of local bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Average MMRE Range of MMRE Average stdMRE Range of stdMRE Repeat the above steps for 2000 times 2000 (MMRE, stdMRE) pairs Spliting data set into training set and test set Tuning model parameters on training set Evaluating model performance on test set MMRE, stdMRE
Analysis procedure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CII 2000 subset I SS1 Performance Local bias CII 2000 subset I SS2 Performance Local bias …… …… …… Correlation analysis
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],Reflecting the uncertainty inherent in model performance when adding just a small group of new data points into the CII 2000 baseline dataset.  CII 2000 CII2010 MMRE 0.3478   0.4063   StdMRE 0.3261   0.3401
Measuring the impacts of local bias(cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Discussions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implications to Parametric Model Calibration   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Threats to Validity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ongoing work on handling local bias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you! Contact: Ye Yang (yangye@nfs.iscas.ac.cn)

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Promise 2011: "Local Bias and its Impacts on the Performance of Parametric Estimation Models"

  • 1. Local Bias and its Impacts on the Performance of Parametric Estimation Models Ye Yang, Lang Xie, Zhimin He (ISCAS) Qi Li, Vu Nguyen, Barry Boehm (USC) Ricardo Valerdi (MIT/Univ. of Arizona) Sep. 21, 2011 Promise 2011, Banff, Canada
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  • 10. Summary of Dataset CII 2000 Subset After2000 Subset CII 2010 Dataset
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  • 23. Thank you! Contact: Ye Yang (yangye@nfs.iscas.ac.cn)

Notas del editor

  1. These pictures show the stdMRE values and MMRE values in each data group.
  2. This table shows the results of correlation analysis. We can see that the range of stdMRE is significantly positive correlated with local bias and local_bias*num (loca bias times num). Both the average stdMRE and the average MMRE are significantly positive correlated with local_bias*num. Range of stdMRE reflects the uncertainty of model performance. So we argue that the bigger the local bias is, the weaker the model performance is.